Mid-Atlantic Region

[Mr.Right]

Massey Ratings: 
  4 Messiah  SOS 23
11 F&M   SOS 14 (3 blemishes, big match at JHU on Saturday 10/13), winner will be in the #2 slot
18 JHU   SOS 13 (4 blemishes, draw vs Messiah helps their cause, losses to Gettysburg, Haverford, MW doesn't hurt as much)
24 Eastern SOS 49
25 Lycoming SOS 126
38 Haverford SOS 7 (4 blemishes but have played the top end of the Centennial) Potential to finish 4th in region by end of season...
45 Gettysburg SOS 19 (4 blemishes:  Lost at Haverford, at TCNJ, vs Cortland St)
50 Dickinson SOS 36  (5 blemishes: Lost at Lynchburg, vs Messiah, vs F&M)  Dickinson should beat Gburg on Sat 10/13 and move up.
86 LVC SOS 42
90 Swat SOS 39
94 Drew SOS 124

Can't say I disagree with this model... I would think this is very close to how NCAA Regional Rankings will shape up for the first release.  Lycoming does not have a strong schedule and not many games vs RR opponents.

Actually the regional rankings are explained elsewhere on this site, see the link below. 


http://www.d3hoops.com/interactive/faq/ncaatournament

Is this accurate? Is Mens Soccer the exact same as Mens Basketball? I thought last year we still had 2 teams get bye's in the 1st Round. Also, I thought we either got rid of the Home/Away multiplier or modified it to make it a less drastic % for Home/Away matches....Now even I am confused

[FelixCloudy]

On a side note, when is the first set of regional rankings released? Has anything changed with the criteria from the NCAA?

I believe the first NCAA regional ranking comes out this Wednesday, October 17.  Christian Shirk did a great explanation last season of the process. http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2017/the-rankings-that-matter and I don't know if anything has changed a lot for 2018 - smarter folk here will have to chime in.  SOS certainly has an impact on the ranking which is what daddyEzK was pointing out, thus Lastguy's data on Massey's SOS calculation is interesting.  But ultimately winning is what counts... no matter the field conditions or the SOS. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

FYI - Massey SOS numbers are not the same as NCAA SOS numbers. They are calculated in very different ways. I am not sure if d3soccer.com has the ability to produce SOS numbers themselves (as I remember soccer, it is the same as women's basketball and thus doable; if similar to men's basketball calculations, it is very difficult).

There are always THREE Regional Rankings published before the end of the regular season. You can calculate that by going to the last day of the season and backing up to the previous Wednesday. That is the third rankings day. Two weeks prior would be the first.

[FelixCloudy]

FYI - Massey SOS numbers are not the same as NCAA SOS numbers. They are calculated in very different ways.

Thank you d-mac.  Do you know if the two different SOS calculations between Massey and NCAA correlate at all?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

FYI - Massey SOS numbers are not the same as NCAA SOS numbers. They are calculated in very different ways.

Thank you d-mac.  Do you know if the two different SOS calculations between Massey and NCAA correlate at all?

Massey does his SOS based on whatever he wants to do for his SOS. It might be written on his website, but I have no idea the exact calculation. What I do know is that the SOS is based on the ENTIRE database. So, if teams are playing teams in other divisions, that has an impact (great or small) on their SOS and thus other teams' SOS numbers. He isn't able to parse out the out-of-division games (whether they count or not) and that tends to affect the SOS and rankings in ways I struggle with in basketball (at least for the first three-quarters of the season).

The NCAA basic SOS is calulated as such:

2/3s of a team's Opponent's Winning Percentage (OWP) and 1/3 of a team's Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage (OOWP).

Now, it isn't everyone they play ... it has to be in-region. The only reason I bring that up is if a team doesn't meet the criteria (70%) of their schedule against what is consider an "in-region" opponent, than those outside the region will not count. That isn't always a factor, but I always bring it up just in case.

I think I might have that last part wrong. It is so rarely used as a factor, that I think it is the entire body of work against DIII opponents. I do know the "in-region" criteria is relevant for in-region record.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

BTW... here are the official dates for Regional Rankings - the last one being the final rankings that were used for selections and bracketing:

● Wednesday, Oct. 17
● Wednesday, Oct. 24
● Wednesday, Oct. 31
● Monday, Nov. 5

I also looked up the exact math to see if the multiplier which men's basketball has is in play... that multiplier was removed from soccer after the 2016 season. So it is the "simple" math.

The better math example would be OWP (multiplied by 2/3) + OOWP (multiplied by 1/3) = SOS

[lastguyoffthebench]

I am aware that Massey and NCAA SOS differ in terms of calculation.   I was just simply stating that the teams overall ranking for the NCAA Regional release will be almost similar.

Lycoming OWP is .487 (estimate).  Factor in OOWP and they might not even qualify for the first release.  They also do not have many RvR, at best they will be 1-1 (if Grove City qualifies).

My NCAA Ranking Predictions would be:
Messiah
F&M
JHU
Eastern
Haverford
Gettysburg
Lycoming
Dickinson
LVC
Swat
 
Keep in mind where Drew was slotted with-in the region due to incredibly low SOS and minimal RvR.   Lycoming is in that same boat, but with Messiah in conference, it's win or bust. 

Centennial is going to get three teams in NCAA

Cabrini wins AQ, Landmark is wide open. 
(correction, Cabrini is Pool B)

Eastern should win the MACF...

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Be aware, the first rankings will not have Results vs. Regionally Ranked Opponents (that is what you meant by RvR, right?). It doesn't exist and can't be made up for the first conversations. So, that will NOT be a factor for the first rankings. It will be in play the rest of the rankings starting with the second.

You will see what they will have for data for week two by looking at all the rankings, but since there are no rankings for the committees to consider in the first place ... it will be blank on the NCAA data sheets.

[Mr.Right]

Wasn't Cabrini the side that knocked off Rowan in the 2017 NCAA 1st Round at Rowan? Didn't Rowan outshoot them like 40-2 and lose?......Anyhow why is Cabrini a Pool B this year? Did their conference lose NCAA affiliation?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Yes, that was Cabrini...  they moved to form the Atlantic East Conference, tournament eligibility beginning in the 2020-21.  If they stay there, they will earn the AQ almost every year.

Cabrini
Immaculata
Neumann   
Wesley   
Marymount   
Marywood   
Gwynedd-Mercy

Neumann sounds familiar because they upset 18-0-1 Messiah in 2011... 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As stated above... there is a new conference this year (formed in a year's time) and thus that conference must earn it's AQ.

I will add, I am not sure where the AEC is considered regionally. Going through the manual, they have not listed the conference in the regional breakdown - which is odd. They do have a rep from Neumann on the men's regional committee and have that rep in the Mid-Atlantic which makes some sense for soccer (we are expecting the AEC to be in the Atlantic Region in basketball, moving several schools who used to be in the Mid-Atlantic). However, it is oddly not official for soccer as of yet.

[Buck O.]

+K lastguy for your post - appreciate the ratings info from Massey.  Sorry, but I don't know how to increase your D3 karma officially.

Felix..i believe you have to get to 200 posts before you are able to give karma points. Keep posting!

As a fellow non-qualifier, yes, that's my understanding.  We'll have to see if I can get there before my son graduates.

[daddyEzK]

I am neutral on the Fords but this is the third or fourth time I have heard about these field conditions for Haverford. I hate to break it to you but the committee doesn't care about your field conditions. Last time I checked the other team they faced played the in the same conditions on the same field. Haverford also has 4 losses and at the time of your argument to have them in the top 10 was 4-4...a measly .500 win percentage. That doesn't cut it no matter how difficult the schedule is. So a team that's 1-9 but played the toughest schedule in the country should be regionally ranked? Makes no sense. If you don't get results it doesn't matter. They are however starting to turn the corner and I think they will be in the top 10 in the first rankings but I hope you realize how the rankings work. I am fairly neutral on this region and enjoy watching and discussing all the teams but don't be too much of a homer if you can't back it up and have to resort to poor field conditions as an excuse.

Wish I knew what team you supported, it would be fun to compare the relative merits.  However, if you followed soccer for any period of time, close loses in adverse conditions ARE a factor in determining if a team is better than its record.  Also there is a difference, as my thighs can attest, between a natural and turf field team.  I don't think that any of this makes a difference in the NCAA rankings since the voters have not seen the games, but it is pertinent on a discussion board of fans who are throwing around their opinions.  You can be neutral on Haverford, but this senior class has won their conference two out of three years and have gone as far as the eights in the NCAAs.  They have beat 3 teams that that folks on this board had ranked ahead of them.  My point was that they deserve to be considered.  Hope you can do that.

[Mr.Right]

Hmm seems a bit unfair to force this new conference to wait 2-3 years to get an AQ. I recognize all these teams and I am guessing they all have been longtime D3 members and in fact just looking most of them came from the same conference. Unless there is a school that is not considered a full D3 member as of yet and all these schools did was shuffle around conferences they should be allowed to get an AQ. Teams change conferences all the time without waiting 2-3 years, the only difference here is that it is a brand new conference. I suppose I could see giving the conference a full year to figure things out and get organized but 2 years seems a bit excessive especially since all these schools are dues paying members already.

[paclassic89]

I am neutral on the Fords but this is the third or fourth time I have heard about these field conditions for Haverford. I hate to break it to you but the committee doesn't care about your field conditions. Last time I checked the other team they faced played the in the same conditions on the same field. Haverford also has 4 losses and at the time of your argument to have them in the top 10 was 4-4...a measly .500 win percentage. That doesn't cut it no matter how difficult the schedule is. So a team that's 1-9 but played the toughest schedule in the country should be regionally ranked? Makes no sense. If you don't get results it doesn't matter. They are however starting to turn the corner and I think they will be in the top 10 in the first rankings but I hope you realize how the rankings work. I am fairly neutral on this region and enjoy watching and discussing all the teams but don't be too much of a homer if you can't back it up and have to resort to poor field conditions as an excuse.

Wish I knew what team you supported, it would be fun to compare the relative merits.  However, if you followed soccer for any period of time, close loses in adverse conditions ARE a factor in determining if a team is better than its record.  Also there is a difference, as my thighs can attest, between a natural and turf field team.  I don't think that any of this makes a difference in the NCAA rankings since the voters have not seen the games, but it is pertinent on a discussion board of fans who are throwing around their opinions.  You can be neutral on Haverford, but this senior class has won their conference two out of three years and have gone as far as the eights in the NCAAs.  They have beat 3 teams that that folks on this board had ranked ahead of them.  My point was that they deserve to be considered.  Hope you can do that.

Here's an idea.  Make your own regional top ten list. Your pal felix can help out.  You do realize that MAF's list has absolutely zero influence on the actual ncaa regional rankings right?  Most on this board will agree that he does a pretty good job of accurately ranking teams however.  I'm not sure why you're so insistent on repeating the same points ad nauseam.