Mid-Atlantic Region

[rudy]

Mid-Atlantic - Poll 4 - October 3, 2017 (Results updated thru 10/3)
1. Messiah---def Albright 5-0
2. Hopkins---def Stevenson 3-0   
3. Lycoming---def #6 LVC 2-0
4. Drew---
5. Gettysburg---
6. Lebanon Valley---lost to #3 Lyco 2-0
7. Haverford---
8. Scranton---
9. Eastern---
10. Dickinson---def Misericordia 5-0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Games to Watch (10/4)
Scranton @ Drew
Eastern @ Gettysburg
Fords @ Rutgers Camden
Goucher @ Catholic
William & Patterson @ DeSales
Moravian @ Etown

Other Results (10/3)
Stevens over F&M 1-0
Rowan over Muhles 3-2
Hood and Widener tie 1-1
Kings over Penn College 4-0
Cabrini over Keystone 2-0
Alvernia over Arcadia 1-0

Scranton vs drew will be interesting game. Big game tomorrow for the region Hopkins at Messiah.  Stevens over F&M..that's a surprise. F&M not having a great year.

[Ejay]

Drew - 2
Scranton - 0

Cserhat with 2 more goals.  15 for the season and he's now scored in all but 2 games.

[paclassic89]

I still don't understand how he wound up at Drew.  He's clearly a D1 caliber player.  He's also from New Mexico so i'm not sure how Drew snagged him

[Buck O.]

I made it to the Messiah-Alvernia game last night. When the Falcons played the Crusaders (now known as the Golden Wolves) on the Crusaders' turf field a year ago, it went into double OT owing to great saves from the Alvernia keeper and a PK that tied it late in regulation: http://gomessiah.com/news/2016/10/5/mens-soccer-quintins-double-ot-winner-leads-messiah-to-road-win.aspx?path=msoc

The same keeper came up big last night on an early challenge, but the Falcons broke through later and went on to win 3-0. Here's my observations on the game within the game.

McCarty did some novel experimenting on the offensive end, trying several combinations on the wings and in the attacking MF, presumably in an effort to jump-start scoring. Although the Falcons have frequently been dangerous in recent games, scoring has been unusually low by Messiah standards. It's not a lack of experienced attackers: the main components have been there for multiple seasons. In the most interesting move, he shifted West from left to right, reinserted Alejos on the left wing, and put Thomas at MF on the right, near West. That proved an electric combination, giving Thomas more options to use his strength and speed, and it resulted in 3 assists for Colby, though at least one (if I recall correctly) came from his usual spot on the right wing. My guess is that McCarty will go back to that combination again, whether or not he starts the next few games that way.

Game balls to Colby and Kirby Robbins (who played the finisher role properly), with honorable mention to Nick West (for always being dangerous) and Shay Quintin (who made the greatest move of the night, a superb shake-and-bake in the box followed by a terrific cross that just missed resulting in another goal), who hasn't figured out yet that he's really an outside defender and doesn't belong down there.    Of course Falcon fans have seen defenders suddenly morph into forwards before--guys like Jon Brubaker, JD Binger, and Jevon Gondwe--so maybe there's just something in the water.

Overall the Falcons looked awfully good. Their aggressive one-touch attack is running seamlessly right now, and finally the goals are coming. If they play this well the rest of this week, Hopkins is going to have their hands full Thursday night on a rare visit to Grantham. If the Blue Jays are as good as their record (and better than they were yesterday vs the Muhls, who aren't any better this year than Alvernia), it should be a good one. Looking forward to it.

Shay is a great player, and even better kid.  My played with and against him for years during their club years.  You could legit put him anywhere on the field, with the exception of GK, and he's produce.  Although, we have seen him in net in meaningless summer tourneys, and he's fine back there as well. :-)

I much appreciate your affirmation of my enthusiasm about Shay, stillwatching. I know he didn't score a great deal for his HS team, but it was a truly great team (as you would know more than me) with other players who apparently fit better up front. Shay could indeed play anywhere. The fact that he's at left outside back is simply a result of circumstances at Messiah and nothing else as far as I can see. When he arrived on campus last fall, there was a crucial need for someone to fill that position, and at least three other returning players were very experienced at left wing, with other very experienced starters in MF.

There's been much discussion of Amherst here lately, so let me point out that two of Shay's teammates at Milton Academy play for Amherst. The big scorer for Milton accepted a scholarship to D1 Boston University. I see where Shay has a younger brother who also played for Milton: can you tell me whether he's also playing somewhere in college?

My son played against that Milton team.  He came away very impressed with that team in general and Shay in particular, whom he thought was the best player on that team. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Mid-Atlantic - Poll 4 - October 3, 2017 (Results updated thru 10/3)
1. Messiah---def Albright 5-0
2. Hopkins---def Stevenson 3-0   
3. Lycoming---def #6 LVC 2-0
4. Drew---
5. Gettysburg---
6. Lebanon Valley---lost to #3 Lyco 2-0
7. Haverford---
8. Scranton---
9. Eastern---
10. Dickinson---def Misericordia 5-0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Games to Watch (10/4)
Scranton @ Drew
Eastern @ Gettysburg
Fords @ Rutgers Camden
Goucher @ Catholic
William & Patterson @ DeSales
Moravian @ Etown

Other Results (10/3)
Stevens over F&M 1-0
Rowan over Muhles 3-2
Hood and Widener tie 1-1
Kings over Penn College 4-0
Cabrini over Keystone 2-0
Alvernia over Arcadia 1-0

Mid-Atlantic - Poll 4 - October 3, 2017 (Results updated thru 10/4)
1. Messiah---def Albright 5-0
2. Hopkins---def Stevenson 3-0   
3. Lycoming---def #6 LVC 2-0
4. Drew---def #8 Scranton 2-0
5. Gettysburg---def #9 Eastern 2-1 OT
6. Lebanon Valley---lost to #3 Lyco 2-0
7. Haverford---tied Rutgers Camden
8. Scranton---lost to #4 Drew 2-0
9. Eastern---lost to #5 Gettysburg 2-1 OT
10. Dickinson---def Misericordia 5-0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Games to Watch (10/4)
Scranton @ Drew (0-2)
Eastern @ Gettysburg (1-2 OT)
Fords @ Rutgers Camden (0-0)
Goucher @ Catholic (0-2)
William & Patterson @ DeSales (3-3)
Moravian @ Etown (1-1)

Game to Watch:
#3 JHU travels to #5 Messiah @7pm

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

As we start to move towards the last third of the season teams are starting to separate themselves for the good and for the bad. Little bit of a breakdown for what the regional rankings might start to look like over the next few weeks. SOS and RvR will play big factors in the actual rankings by the NCAA, but so far these are the teams I feel are competing to be ranked.

Comfortably Safe (So Far)
Hopkins (11-0-0) w/Messiah, F&M, & Dickinson left
Messiah (10-1-0) w/Hopkins, Lyco, & LVC left
Lyco (11-1-0) w/Messiah left

Safe (But on the Edge)
Drew (11-0-1) w/Haverford & Kean left
Gettysburg (8-2-0) w/Muhles, Dickinson, & F&M left

Work to Do (And Needs Some Help)
Leb Val (6-2-1) w/Messiah left
Dickinson (7-3-1) w/Scranton, Gettysburg, Fords, & Hopkins
Scranton (7-4-0) w/Dickinson left
Eastern (7-3-0) w/Stockton left
Fords (6-2-3) w/Drew & Dickinson left

Long-shots (Really Needs Help)
DeSales (9-1-1) w/Kings, Moravian, & Eastern left
Arcadia (7-2-1) w/Lyco, Messiah & LVC left

Done (No Chance unless they win the AQ)
Moravian (6-2-2)
Kings (7-3-1)
McDaniel (7-2-1)
Etown (5-5-1)
F&M (4-5-1)
Catholic (4-4-4)
Manhattanville (6-5-0)

[Falconer]

As we start to move towards the last third of the season teams are starting to separate themselves for the good and for the bad. Little bit of a breakdown for what the regional rankings might start to look like over the next few weeks. SOS and RvR will play big factors in the actual rankings by the NCAA, but so far these are the teams I feel are competing to be ranked.

Comfortably Safe (So Far)
Hopkins (11-0-0) w/Messiah, F&M, & Dickinson left
Messiah (10-1-0) w/Hopkins, Lyco, & LVC left
Lyco (11-1-0) w/Messiah left

I hope you're right, MAF, that Messiah and Lyco are both safe.

Back when Messiah and Etown were in the same conference, they would almost always end up playing twice, with the second game being the conference playoffs. (Sometimes they would both get a bid and end up playing a third time, but that wasn't common.) Some years they would split the two games, or one would end in a tie, whether or not followed by PKs as it would be in the conference tournament. But, if Messiah won them both (I don't remember the opposite result, but perhaps I'm forgetting such), Etown was definitely not safe for a bid. When Messiah lost twice to Lyco two years ago (when both games were in Williamsport), the Falcons failed to get a bid.

Obviously I am ignoring the whole "body of work" in this musing, and that obviously matters. (I agree e.g. that Messiah didn't deserve a bid in 2015.) However, I could still see scenarios in which bids this year were not given to BOTH of those teams. If Messiah beats Hopkins tonight I'll feel better about their chances, but they might still stumble badly enough not to get a bid if Lyco beats them twice.

And, that could happen. Lyco doesn't have anything to prove this year. They have a significant advantage playing at home. Their field hinders the Falcon's one-touch passing game, and they have shown the ability to beat or tie Messiah, even the very best Falcon teams, such as the NCAA championship team that failed to score in the 2013 conference title game, only to lose in PKS: http://www.gomessiah.com/news/2013/11/6/MSOC_1106133242.aspx?path=msoc.

Lyco almost always plays a very physical game, regardless of the opponent, so the officiating might be a factor. Much depends on whether the referee "lets them play," or calls the tighter game that normally favors the Falcons. Weather obviously a potential factor as well. I'd say right now, before the Messiah-Hopkins game result is known, that Lyco should probably be a slight favorite at their own place, perhaps 53-47 on the odds. I'd reverse it to 60-40 if it were in Grantham. Just one person's opinion. Soon we'll have facts instead.

[paclassic89]

Having watched the Lyco vs LVC game, I predict that Messiah have about a 65% chance of winning.  LVC had a PK saved in their game against Lyco.  If that had gone in to tie it 1-1 then I think LVC probably would have taken the game.  They controlled possesion and only conceded a second goal once they began throwing bodies forward.  Lyco plays an extremely direct game and very rarely will try to play out of the back or even through the midfield.  If Messiah can control possession and slow the game down then they should dominate. 

[rudy]

As we start to move towards the last third of the season teams are starting to separate themselves for the good and for the bad. Little bit of a breakdown for what the regional rankings might start to look like over the next few weeks. SOS and RvR will play big factors in the actual rankings by the NCAA, but so far these are the teams I feel are competing to be ranked.

Comfortably Safe (So Far)
Hopkins (11-0-0) w/Messiah, F&M, & Dickinson left
Messiah (10-1-0) w/Hopkins, Lyco, & LVC left
Lyco (11-1-0) w/Messiah left

I hope you're right, MAF, that Messiah and Lyco are both safe.

Back when Messiah and Etown were in the same conference, they would almost always end up playing twice, with the second game being the conference playoffs. (Sometimes they would both get a bid and end up playing a third time, but that wasn't common.) Some years they would split the two games, or one would end in a tie, whether or not followed by PKs as it would be in the conference tournament. But, if Messiah won them both (I don't remember the opposite result, but perhaps I'm forgetting such), Etown was definitely not safe for a bid. When Messiah lost twice to Lyco two years ago (when both games were in Williamsport), the Falcons failed to get a bid.

Obviously I am ignoring the whole "body of work" in this musing, and that obviously matters. (I agree e.g. that Messiah didn't deserve a bid in 2015.) However, I could still see scenarios in which bids this year were not given to BOTH of those teams. If Messiah beats Hopkins tonight I'll feel better about their chances, but they might still stumble badly enough not to get a bid if Lyco beats them twice.

And, that could happen. Lyco doesn't have anything to prove this year. They have a significant advantage playing at home. Their field hinders the Falcon's one-touch passing game, and they have shown the ability to beat or tie Messiah, even the very best Falcon teams, such as the NCAA championship team that failed to score in the 2013 conference title game, only to lose in PKS: http://www.gomessiah.com/news/2013/11/6/MSOC_1106133242.aspx?path=msoc.

Lyco almost always plays a very physical game, regardless of the opponent, so the officiating might be a factor. Much depends on whether the referee "lets them play," or calls the tighter game that normally favors the Falcons. Weather obviously a potential factor as well. I'd say right now, before the Messiah-Hopkins game result is known, that Lyco should probably be a slight favorite at their own place, perhaps 53-47 on the odds. I'd reverse it to 60-40 if it were in Grantham. Just one person's opinion. Soon we'll have facts instead.

I'm thinking even a tie with Hopkins would be "enough" to stay safe unless they stumble and tie/lose later against weaker opponents..which is possible.  A lesser team can definitely get a draw under the right conditions.  Look at Tufts last year..lost twice to Bowdoin  at the end of the season..had only 9 wins (9-4-2) ...and they got a berth.  And then they won it all.   I think Tufts was fortunate last year to get the bid. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

As we start to move towards the last third of the season teams are starting to separate themselves for the good and for the bad. Little bit of a breakdown for what the regional rankings might start to look like over the next few weeks. SOS and RvR will play big factors in the actual rankings by the NCAA, but so far these are the teams I feel are competing to be ranked.

Comfortably Safe (So Far)
Hopkins (11-0-0) w/Messiah, F&M, & Dickinson left
Messiah (10-1-0) w/Hopkins, Lyco, & LVC left
Lyco (11-1-0) w/Messiah left

I hope you're right, MAF, that Messiah and Lyco are both safe.

Back when Messiah and Etown were in the same conference, they would almost always end up playing twice, with the second game being the conference playoffs. (Sometimes they would both get a bid and end up playing a third time, but that wasn't common.) Some years they would split the two games, or one would end in a tie, whether or not followed by PKs as it would be in the conference tournament. But, if Messiah won them both (I don't remember the opposite result, but perhaps I'm forgetting such), Etown was definitely not safe for a bid. When Messiah lost twice to Lyco two years ago (when both games were in Williamsport), the Falcons failed to get a bid.

Obviously I am ignoring the whole "body of work" in this musing, and that obviously matters. (I agree e.g. that Messiah didn't deserve a bid in 2015.) However, I could still see scenarios in which bids this year were not given to BOTH of those teams. If Messiah beats Hopkins tonight I'll feel better about their chances, but they might still stumble badly enough not to get a bid if Lyco beats them twice.

And, that could happen. Lyco doesn't have anything to prove this year. They have a significant advantage playing at home. Their field hinders the Falcon's one-touch passing game, and they have shown the ability to beat or tie Messiah, even the very best Falcon teams, such as the NCAA championship team that failed to score in the 2013 conference title game, only to lose in PKS: http://www.gomessiah.com/news/2013/11/6/MSOC_1106133242.aspx?path=msoc.

Lyco almost always plays a very physical game, regardless of the opponent, so the officiating might be a factor. Much depends on whether the referee "lets them play," or calls the tighter game that normally favors the Falcons. Weather obviously a potential factor as well. I'd say right now, before the Messiah-Hopkins game result is known, that Lyco should probably be a slight favorite at their own place, perhaps 53-47 on the odds. I'd reverse it to 60-40 if it were in Grantham. Just one person's opinion. Soon we'll have facts instead.

I agree with a majority of that Falconer. Those are just my views as of today. Obviously if any team takes a few more losses and others behind win some then things will shift. But as of today those are the probable scenarios for regional ranking teams. I a not saying who is getting in or anything like that because a lot will depend on AQ's for who battles for at-large bids. A lot of soccer to be played yet and anything can happen. I think right now though the clear favorites are Hopkins, Messiah, Lyco, and then Drew in it's own area then Gettysburg closely following them. After that it is a toss up between 4-5 teams jostling for those next spots. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Having watched the Lyco vs LVC game, I predict that Messiah have about a 65% chance of winning.  LVC had a PK saved in their game against Lyco.  If that had gone in to tie it 1-1 then I think LVC probably would have taken the game.  They controlled possesion and only conceded a second goal once they began throwing bodies forward.  Lyco plays an extremely direct game and very rarely will try to play out of the back or even through the midfield.  If Messiah can control possession and slow the game down then they should dominate.

I watched some of this game and was stat checking while I was watching others and I disagree with a portion of this. Saying Messiah has a 65% chance to win based off of watching Lycoming play one game vs a good opponent is a stretch. I agree with your assessment of the game and think the PK save was big but to say LVC wins that game if they make that PK is a guess. Also as Falconer stated above, Lycoming and Messiah have had some good battles since 2013 when they stunned the Falcons in Grantham. With the regular season game being at Lycoming I think the odds are better than 65/35 as you think. I'd say 54/46 in favor of the Falcons based from what I have seen of both teams this year. Also, with the way Messiah plays, they should want to speed up the game if anything, not slow it down. The quicker they can move the ball the better. Not sure why you would think slowing down the pace of play would benefit the Falcons.

[NEPAFAN]

I saw the second half of Scranton-Drew. Scranton was denied on a PK and had a few chances in the 2nd half. Looks like Drew will have home field advantage in the playoffs. Also watched Etown-Moravian play to a 2OT draw.

[Falconer]

It's quite some time since I saw a game like the one tonight in Grantham. Hopkins brought their best game, as I frankly hoped they would, and so did Messiah. It was like watching a chess match the entire first half and most of the second. Neither team was conceding anything to their opponent, and both teams were sometimes very dangerous, but the defenses stepped up and usually prevented shots on goal. Both exhilarating and frustrating to watch. Messiah had the edge in the first half, but the Jays actually dominated the second half until about ten minutes remained, when the Falcons took over and didn't look back. Target Kirby Robbins bulled his way through the defense and made a great, tough shot, moving to his right but shooting hard back to his left.

Hopkins made a valiant effort to even it in the closing seconds, but if their keeper hadn't made two brilliant saves it would have finished 3-0.

I think I saw a Final Four match tonight. Both teams are that good right now. Honestly, I wouldn't budge the rankings one bit based on this result. Keep Hopkins #3 and Messiah #5, though move either one up if someone else stumbles.

[PaulNewman]

It's quite some time since I saw a game like the one tonight in Grantham. Hopkins brought their best game, as I frankly hoped they would, and so did Messiah. It was like watching a chess match the entire first half and most of the second. Neither team was conceding anything to their opponent, and both teams were sometimes very dangerous, but the defenses stepped up and usually prevented shots on goal. Both exhilarating and frustrating to watch. Messiah had the edge in the first half, but the Jays actually dominated the second half until about ten minutes remained, when the Falcons took over and didn't look back. Target Kirby Robbins bulled his way through the defense and made a great, tough shot, moving to his right but shooting hard back to his left.

Hopkins made a valiant effort to even it in the closing seconds, but if their keeper hadn't made two brilliant saves it would have finished 3-0.

I think I saw a Final Four match tonight. Both teams are that good right now. Honestly, I wouldn't budge the rankings one bit based on this result. Keep Hopkins #3 and Messiah #5, though move either one up if someone else stumbles.

Falconer, that is a fascinating post.  There are so many things going on, and they can't all be true.  You went to some lengths to praise JHU but concluded that they would have lost 3-0 IF GK hadn't made 2 saves.  Were the saves lucky or extra-ordinary?  Both teams had 3 saves.  So if JHU had had no saves out of 3 SOG then yes the score would have been 3-0.  But if JHU made 3 saves and Messiah had none then JHU would have won 3-0.  And you said JHU dominated much of the 2nd half and after Messiah scored tried valiantly to equalize.  Messiah didn't score until the 83rd minute.  And then you conclude that JHU should keep a higher ranking.  At any rate, it seems that your conclusion is that Messiah is one of if not the best team in the country.

[paclassic89]

Having watched the Lyco vs LVC game, I predict that Messiah have about a 65% chance of winning.  LVC had a PK saved in their game against Lyco.  If that had gone in to tie it 1-1 then I think LVC probably would have taken the game.  They controlled possesion and only conceded a second goal once they began throwing bodies forward.  Lyco plays an extremely direct game and very rarely will try to play out of the back or even through the midfield.  If Messiah can control possession and slow the game down then they should dominate.

I watched some of this game and was stat checking while I was watching others and I disagree with a portion of this. Saying Messiah has a 65% chance to win based off of watching Lycoming play one game vs a good opponent is a stretch. I agree with your assessment of the game and think the PK save was big but to say LVC wins that game if they make that PK is a guess. Also as Falconer stated above, Lycoming and Messiah have had some good battles since 2013 when they stunned the Falcons in Grantham. With the regular season game being at Lycoming I think the odds are better than 65/35 as you think. I'd say 54/46 in favor of the Falcons based from what I have seen of both teams this year. Also, with the way Messiah plays, they should want to speed up the game if anything, not slow it down. The quicker they can move the ball the better. Not sure why you would think slowing down the pace of play would benefit the Falcons.

Lyco wants a physical and sloppy game with possession changing hands frequently.  It suits their style better.  That's just a fact.  They will not fare well if Messiah dominates possession.  Moving the ball quickly  while having possession has nothing to do with the actual pace of the game (see barca).  We can come back to these posts once Messiah wins.