Mid-Atlantic Region

[Dave B]

It's quite some time since I saw a game like the one tonight in Grantham. Hopkins brought their best game, as I frankly hoped they would, and so did Messiah. It was like watching a chess match the entire first half and most of the second. Neither team was conceding anything to their opponent, and both teams were sometimes very dangerous, but the defenses stepped up and usually prevented shots on goal. Both exhilarating and frustrating to watch. Messiah had the edge in the first half, but the Jays actually dominated the second half until about ten minutes remained, when the Falcons took over and didn't look back. Target Kirby Robbins bulled his way through the defense and made a great, tough shot, moving to his right but shooting hard back to his left.

Hopkins made a valiant effort to even it in the closing seconds, but if their keeper hadn't made two brilliant saves it would have finished 3-0.

I think I saw a Final Four match tonight. Both teams are that good right now. Honestly, I wouldn't budge the rankings one bit based on this result. Keep Hopkins #3 and Messiah #5, though move either one up if someone else stumbles.

I really wanted to be at the game last night but wasn't able to make it. Thanks for the write-up. 

[Dave B]

It's quite some time since I saw a game like the one tonight in Grantham. Hopkins brought their best game, as I frankly hoped they would, and so did Messiah. It was like watching a chess match the entire first half and most of the second. Neither team was conceding anything to their opponent, and both teams were sometimes very dangerous, but the defenses stepped up and usually prevented shots on goal. Both exhilarating and frustrating to watch. Messiah had the edge in the first half, but the Jays actually dominated the second half until about ten minutes remained, when the Falcons took over and didn't look back. Target Kirby Robbins bulled his way through the defense and made a great, tough shot, moving to his right but shooting hard back to his left.

Hopkins made a valiant effort to even it in the closing seconds, but if their keeper hadn't made two brilliant saves it would have finished 3-0.

I think I saw a Final Four match tonight. Both teams are that good right now. Honestly, I wouldn't budge the rankings one bit based on this result. Keep Hopkins #3 and Messiah #5, though move either one up if someone else stumbles.

Falconer, that is a fascinating post.  There are so many things going on, and they can't all be true.  You went to some lengths to praise JHU but concluded that they would have lost 3-0 IF GK hadn't made 2 saves.  Were the saves lucky or extra-ordinary?  Both teams had 3 saves.  So if JHU had had no saves out of 3 SOG then yes the score would have been 3-0.  But if JHU made 3 saves and Messiah had none then JHU would have won 3-0.  And you said JHU dominated much of the 2nd half and after Messiah scored tried valiantly to equalize.  Messiah didn't score until the 83rd minute.  And then you conclude that JHU should keep a higher ranking.  At any rate, it seems that your conclusion is that Messiah is one of if not the best team in the country.

I have to say that I don't understand the tone of your post.  What is it that you think Falconer said that isn't true?  You questioned his "2 saves" comment, but Falconer specifically said 2 brilliant saves, and we all know that not all saves are equal.  Plus, the saves happened after JHU was trying to equalize (late in the game) which usually opens up the opportunity for quick counter plays by the other team.   Lastly, by calling it a Final Four quality match, I read that as saying that both teams are one of if not the best teams in the country.

[Shooter McGavin]

Having watched the Lyco vs LVC game, I predict that Messiah have about a 65% chance of winning.  LVC had a PK saved in their game against Lyco.  If that had gone in to tie it 1-1 then I think LVC probably would have taken the game.  They controlled possesion and only conceded a second goal once they began throwing bodies forward.  Lyco plays an extremely direct game and very rarely will try to play out of the back or even through the midfield.  If Messiah can control possession and slow the game down then they should dominate.

I watched some of this game and was stat checking while I was watching others and I disagree with a portion of this. Saying Messiah has a 65% chance to win based off of watching Lycoming play one game vs a good opponent is a stretch. I agree with your assessment of the game and think the PK save was big but to say LVC wins that game if they make that PK is a guess. Also as Falconer stated above, Lycoming and Messiah have had some good battles since 2013 when they stunned the Falcons in Grantham. With the regular season game being at Lycoming I think the odds are better than 65/35 as you think. I'd say 54/46 in favor of the Falcons based from what I have seen of both teams this year. Also, with the way Messiah plays, they should want to speed up the game if anything, not slow it down. The quicker they can move the ball the better. Not sure why you would think slowing down the pace of play would benefit the Falcons.

Lyco wants a physical and sloppy game with possession changing hands frequently.  It suits their style better.  That's just a fact.  They will not fare well if Messiah dominates possession. Moving the ball quickly  while having possession has nothing to do with the actual pace of the game (see barca).  We can come back to these posts once Messiah wins.

I am not taking sides here as I think you both have valid points trying to be made. However, I want to touch on the statement paclassics made about Lycoming not doing well if Messiah dominates the possession statistics. Let me start with this...Messiah dominates possession in almost every game they play. They have dominated possession in every game vs Lycoming that I have watched and yet they have not always won those games. To my knowledge Lycoming is the only team in the last 3-5 years to have continued success vs the Falcons, beating them multiple times. In just the last 2 seasons Messiah is 1-2-0 vs Lycoming, having dominated possession in all 3 games. If I had to guess the possession probably was around 65/35 in favor of the Falcons and yet they have 1 win and 2 losses.

I personally think this game (Lyco vs Messiah) is going to be more entertaining than the Hopkins game from last night. And Messiah most likely will win and is, in my opinion, the better team right now, but for anyone that thinks having more possession means that you will win is a stretch. Lebanon Valley had more possession than Lycoming earlier this week as stated in other posts and Lycoming won 2-0...do I need to share more examples? 

[Shooter McGavin]

As we start to move towards the last third of the season teams are starting to separate themselves for the good and for the bad. Little bit of a breakdown for what the regional rankings might start to look like over the next few weeks. SOS and RvR will play big factors in the actual rankings by the NCAA, but so far these are the teams I feel are competing to be ranked.

Comfortably Safe (So Far)
Hopkins (11-0-0) w/Messiah, F&M, & Dickinson left
Messiah (10-1-0) w/Hopkins, Lyco, & LVC left
Lyco (11-1-0) w/Messiah left

Safe (But on the Edge)
Drew (11-0-1) w/Haverford & Kean left
Gettysburg (8-2-0) w/Muhles, Dickinson, & F&M left

Work to Do (And Needs Some Help)
Leb Val (6-2-1) w/Messiah left
Dickinson (7-3-1) w/Scranton, Gettysburg, Fords, & Hopkins
Scranton (7-4-0) w/Dickinson left
Eastern (7-3-0) w/Stockton left
Fords (6-2-3) w/Drew & Dickinson left

Long-shots (Really Needs Help)
DeSales (9-1-1) w/Kings, Moravian, & Eastern left
Arcadia (7-2-1) w/Lyco, Messiah & LVC left

Done (No Chance unless they win the AQ)
Moravian (6-2-2)
Kings (7-3-1)
McDaniel (7-2-1)
Etown (5-5-1)
F&M (4-5-1)
Catholic (4-4-4)
Manhattanville (6-5-0)

I don't think you can eliminate Moravian quiet yet. I'd put them in the long-shots section.

My rankings as of today would be this:
1. Messiah
2. Hopkins
3. Lyco
4. Drew
5. Gettysburg
6. Dickinson
7. LVC
8. Fords
9. Scranton
10. Eastern/DeSales

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Having watched the Lyco vs LVC game, I predict that Messiah have about a 65% chance of winning.  LVC had a PK saved in their game against Lyco.  If that had gone in to tie it 1-1 then I think LVC probably would have taken the game.  They controlled possesion and only conceded a second goal once they began throwing bodies forward.  Lyco plays an extremely direct game and very rarely will try to play out of the back or even through the midfield.  If Messiah can control possession and slow the game down then they should dominate.

I watched some of this game and was stat checking while I was watching others and I disagree with a portion of this. Saying Messiah has a 65% chance to win based off of watching Lycoming play one game vs a good opponent is a stretch. I agree with your assessment of the game and think the PK save was big but to say LVC wins that game if they make that PK is a guess. Also as Falconer stated above, Lycoming and Messiah have had some good battles since 2013 when they stunned the Falcons in Grantham. With the regular season game being at Lycoming I think the odds are better than 65/35 as you think. I'd say 54/46 in favor of the Falcons based from what I have seen of both teams this year. Also, with the way Messiah plays, they should want to speed up the game if anything, not slow it down. The quicker they can move the ball the better. Not sure why you would think slowing down the pace of play would benefit the Falcons.

Lyco wants a physical and sloppy game with possession changing hands frequently.  It suits their style better.  That's just a fact.  They will not fare well if Messiah dominates possession.  Moving the ball quickly  while having possession has nothing to do with the actual pace of the game (see barca).  We can come back to these posts once Messiah wins.

"We can come back to these posts when Messiah wins." I never stated they wouldn't win. I am simply stating that I disagreed with a portion of what you offered because I think the odds are closer to 50/50 than 65/35 as you rashly put it. That does not mean I think Lycoming will win and I am not going to offer my thoughts on that prediction until the game is much closer to being played.

"They will not fare well if Messiah dominates possession." Messiah is a possession heavy team and usually dominates this stat line in every game vs every opponent they play and they are very good at it. This does not automatically qualify you for victory though.   

[Hopkins92]

I watched most of the second half of the Hop-Messiah game. I know exactly what Falconer is saying. Hopkins dominated possession, though they didn't have a lot of true danger moments. Falcons scored on a brilliant individual effort, then Hopkins threw everything they had going forward. Falcons countered on them and See (hop gk) made some stand on your head saves. Not all that complicated if you'd watched the game.

=-=-=-==

Someone on this thread made a very astute observation in recent weeks: Messiah's starting 11 is top notch. When they throw in the subs.. hoo boy. Hopkins was absolutely killing them in the 70-80 minute block and really should've stepped on it to get a goal. The first string couldn't get back in the game and you could feel a goal was coming. Then the first string came on and about 3 minutes later, Falcons score.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Mid-Atlantic - Poll 4 - October 3, 2017 (Results updated thru 10/5)
1. Messiah---def Albright 5-0, def #2 Hopkins 1-0
2. Hopkins---def Stevenson 3-0, lost to #1 Messiah 1-0   
3. Lycoming---def #6 LVC 2-0
4. Drew---def #8 Scranton 2-0
5. Gettysburg---def #9 Eastern 2-1 OT
6. Lebanon Valley---lost to #3 Lyco 2-0
7. Haverford---tied Rutgers Camden
8. Scranton---lost to #4 Drew 2-0
9. Eastern---lost to #5 Gettysburg 2-1 OT
10. Dickinson---def Misericordia 5-0

[Hopkins92]

And I'm not trying to be a jerk or call anyone out, I'm just saying that having actually watched the webcast, it was not a very complicated game. Hopkins did that thing they do in the back, Falcons chased it with a lone forward until Hop was in their offensive 1/3 and then the Falcons D tended to collapse. The thing that surprised me was that Messiah was just giving the ball right back to Hopkins for long stretches.

When the first string come on late, they started producing counters off of those TOs, which is what led to the goal and to the other danger moments late in the game. When they do that, they are scary good.

Hopkins needs to figure out what to do with all that possession against a packed in D. If I'm playing them, they can play around in the back all day long. Show me you can break down my D and I'll do more to pressure you. Until then, like someone said, it's a chess match. (It was driving the Messiah broadcast team nuts. )

[rudy]

And I'm not trying to be a jerk or call anyone out, I'm just saying that having actually watched the webcast, it was not a very complicated game. Hopkins did that thing they do in the back, Falcons chased it with a lone forward until Hop was in their offensive 1/3 and then the Falcons D tended to collapse. The thing that surprised me was that Messiah was just giving the ball right back to Hopkins for long stretches.

When the first string come on late, they started producing counters off of those TOs, which is what led to the goal and to the other danger moments late in the game. When they do that, they are scary good.

Hopkins needs to figure out what to do with all that possession against a packed in D. If I'm playing them, they can play around in the back all day long. Show me you can break down my D and I'll do more to pressure you. Until then, like someone said, it's a chess match. (It was driving the Messiah broadcast team nuts. )

Did you watch the first half or second half only?  For some reason Messiah came out in the 2nd half and dropped way off Hopkins allowing them to dribble penetrate well into the offensive half without any pressure and casually pass the ball around on their own half with no pressure.  First half was nothing like this.  Messiah looked to be the dominant team in first half and did not give all this time and space.  Apparently Hopkins changed formation/strategy but I don't understand why Messiah decided to go into a a defensive shell for long periods of the 2nd half..even with the starters in.   It wasn't until the last 10-12 minutes when the starting forwards came back in that they resumed pressuring Hopkins in their own end.  Messiah also switched things up as they have done in recent games moving players around and then they got the goal.   As stated earlier the goalie snagged a second shot by Brandt (after the goal in 82nd minute) headed over his head like he had some soccer ball magnets in his hands.  From the video it looked like a crazy save. ..followed by a second great save shortly after.  So that is where the 3-0 scoreline came from.

Robbins goal was a thing of beauty weaving through 4-5 defenders and shooting across his body to the far post.  That was the difference in the end along with the defense limiting Hopkins to not many quality looks.  The other encouraging thing for Messiah in this game is they were getting heads on corner kicks directed toward the net...something they have not been able to do very often.

I think chess match was a good way to describe this game..adjustments, counter moves, each team carrying play during different times in the game.   Of course the game could have gone either way in the end..I thought home field would benefit Messiah and that was probably the difference in the end.

[PaulNewman]

Dave B, Falconer, rudy, et al...

I appreciate the further explanation and I will readily state that I did not watch any of the game.

I was reading Falconer's account, which was an excellent description of what sounded like a taut, tense, highly competitive affair that could have gone either way.  Then the sentence about could of or should of ended 3-0 came in, and that seemed contrary to the rest of the tone of the whole post (speaking of tone).  So, now reading the replies, sounds like this was a game that could have gone either way, and that JHU might have equalized very late with heavy pressure (and that in the context of JHU possibly equalizing Messiah could have scored again).  My only point is that the overall description sounded nothing like a 3-0 game and to throw out that the final result very well could have been 3-0 seemed to distort the rest of the description. 

P.S. And if JHU had scored in the 35 or so minutes that they dominated the 2nd half (according to the account), what then?  And then after saying the end result very well couldhave been 3-0, it's confusing to read that JHU should stay ahead of Messiah in the polls?  Why would JHU stay ahead in the polls?  Anyway, sorry, but seemed like natural questions to wonder about just reading the post.

[Dave B]

Dave B, Falconer, rudy, et al...

I appreciate the further explanation and I will readily state that I did not watch any of the game.

I was reading Falconer's account, which was an excellent description of what sounded like a taut, tense, highly competitive affair that could have gone either way.  Then the sentence about could of or should of ended 3-0 came in, and that seemed contrary to the rest of the tone of the whole post (speaking of tone).  So, now reading the replies, sounds like this was a game that could have gone either way, and that JHU might have equalized very late with heavy pressure (and that in the context of JHU possibly equalizing Messiah could have scored again).  My only point is that the overall description sounded nothing like a 3-0 game and to throw out that the final result very well could have been 3-0 seemed to distort the rest of the description. 

P.S. And if JHU had scored in the 35 or so minutes that they dominated the 2nd half (according to the account), what then?  And then after saying the end result very well couldhave been 3-0, it's confusing to read that JHU should stay ahead of Messiah in the polls?  Why would JHU stay ahead in the polls?  Anyway, sorry, but seemed like natural questions to wonder about just reading the post.

My impression was that the 3-0 comment only referred to the 2 chances Messiah had late in the game when JHU was pressing to equalize, and the quality of the saves it took to keep the ball out of the net.  I don't think it was a reflection on the game as a whole.

[Hopkins92]

Yeah, rudy, like I said, only caught a chunk of the second. I was really surprised by Messiah's tactics, but it sure seemed like coach decided Hopkins didn't have the dangerman up front to break down a walled up D.

I don't have the perspective some of you have, but I don't see how Hopkins stays above Messiah in the polls at this point. I mean, they are probably 1a/1b in the region, but a result is a result.

[Ejay]

I watched most of the second half of the Hop-Messiah game. I know exactly what Falconer is saying. Hopkins dominated possession, though they didn't have a lot of true danger moments. Falcons scored on a brilliant individual effort, then Hopkins threw everything they had going forward. Falcons countered on them and See (hop gk) made some stand on your head saves. Not all that complicated if you'd watched the game.

=-=-=-==

Someone on this thread made a very astute observation in recent weeks: Messiah's starting 11 is top notch. When they throw in the subs.. hoo boy. Hopkins was absolutely killing them in the 70-80 minute block and really should've stepped on it to get a goal. The first string couldn't get back in the game and you could feel a goal was coming. Then the first string came on and about 3 minutes later, Falcons score.

Bingo.  Exactly what I saw too.  And your second post was spot on as well (Hopkins needs to figure out what to do with all that possession against a packed in D. If I'm playing them, they can play around in the back all day long. Show me you can break down my D and I'll do more to pressure you. Until then, like someone said, it's a chess match.)

[PaulNewman]

Dave B, Falconer, rudy, et al...

I appreciate the further explanation and I will readily state that I did not watch any of the game.

I was reading Falconer's account, which was an excellent description of what sounded like a taut, tense, highly competitive affair that could have gone either way.  Then the sentence about could of or should of ended 3-0 came in, and that seemed contrary to the rest of the tone of the whole post (speaking of tone).  So, now reading the replies, sounds like this was a game that could have gone either way, and that JHU might have equalized very late with heavy pressure (and that in the context of JHU possibly equalizing Messiah could have scored again).  My only point is that the overall description sounded nothing like a 3-0 game and to throw out that the final result very well could have been 3-0 seemed to distort the rest of the description. 

P.S. And if JHU had scored in the 35 or so minutes that they dominated the 2nd half (according to the account), what then?  And then after saying the end result very well couldhave been 3-0, it's confusing to read that JHU should stay ahead of Messiah in the polls?  Why would JHU stay ahead in the polls?  Anyway, sorry, but seemed like natural questions to wonder about just reading the post.

My impression was that the 3-0 comment only referred to the 2 chances Messiah had late in the game when JHU was pressing to equalize, and the quality of the saves it took to keep the ball out of the net.  I don't think it was a reflection on the game as a whole.

I understand, and I now know that is no doubt correct.

I was just sharing how it read as a neutral, without the additional information.

Imagine as a Messiah fan how you might have read the same thing if JHU had won and there was a comment from a JHU person that could have been a 3-0 game.  I mean, geez, Messiah didn't even score until the 83rd minute, apparently after being dominated for the prior 35 minutes or so, so IMHO any reference to "could have been" 3-0 based on two possible goals in the last 6-7 minutes could give an impression that was not intended.

Not trying to tick off Messiah nation.  Hopefully we get to see these two teams again, and I also hope we get a Messiah-Tufts rematch somewhere along the line.

[rudy]

Dave B, Falconer, rudy, et al...

I appreciate the further explanation and I will readily state that I did not watch any of the game.

I was reading Falconer's account, which was an excellent description of what sounded like a taut, tense, highly competitive affair that could have gone either way.  Then the sentence about could of or should of ended 3-0 came in, and that seemed contrary to the rest of the tone of the whole post (speaking of tone).  So, now reading the replies, sounds like this was a game that could have gone either way, and that JHU might have equalized very late with heavy pressure (and that in the context of JHU possibly equalizing Messiah could have scored again).  My only point is that the overall description sounded nothing like a 3-0 game and to throw out that the final result very well could have been 3-0 seemed to distort the rest of the description. 

P.S. And if JHU had scored in the 35 or so minutes that they dominated the 2nd half (according to the account), what then?  And then after saying the end result very well couldhave been 3-0, it's confusing to read that JHU should stay ahead of Messiah in the polls?  Why would JHU stay ahead in the polls?  Anyway, sorry, but seemed like natural questions to wonder about just reading the post.

I scratched my head a bit as well regarding Hopkins staying ahead in poll. Of course Messiah should move ahead.