Mid-Atlantic Region

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Games to Watch

Tuesday
Messiah at Lyco
Scranton at Elmira
Leb Val at Stevenson
Eastern at Kings

Wednesday
McDaniel at Hopkins
Drew at Kean
F&M at Gettysburg
Ursinus at Haverford
Muhlenberg at Dickinson

[Shooter McGavin]

Games to Watch

Tuesday
Messiah at Lyco
Scranton at Elmira
Leb Val at Stevenson
Eastern at Kings

Wednesday
McDaniel at Hopkins
Drew at Kean
F&M at Gettysburg
Ursinus at Haverford
Muhlenberg at Dickinson

Messiah at Lycoming is definitely the game to watch this week and maybe this year. I will be tuning into this one! 

[rudy]

Games to Watch

Tuesday
Messiah at Lyco
Scranton at Elmira
Leb Val at Stevenson
Eastern at Kings

Wednesday
McDaniel at Hopkins
Drew at Kean
F&M at Gettysburg
Ursinus at Haverford
Muhlenberg at Dickinson

Messiah at Lycoming is definitely the game to watch this week and maybe this year. I will be tuning into this one!

Predictions? Lyco home field is nice for them but as a Homer I'll go with Messiah 1-0 or maybe OT 2-1. 

[Ejay]

Predictions? Lyco home field is nice for them but as a Homer I'll go with Messiah 1-0 or maybe OT 2-1.

I'll take Lyco 2-1 OT.  Messiah has been playing with fire, and they're bound to end up on the short end of the stick eventually.

[Falconer]

I still think out of all these teams Haverford has had the toughest schedule.  On the National Perspective chat they are speaking of schedules and I would put the Fords up there with anyone especially since they played a majority of them on the road.  I know 8-3-3 isn't great but if they finish with three wins and get to 11-3-3 I would think they would be higher on this list.

@Cabrini
N vs Messiah
N vs Etown
@JHU
@Scranton
@Getty
@Muhls
@Camden
@Drew
@WAC
@Dickinson

Looks like the Haverford coach took a page out of Serpone's book up at Amherst, scheduling as many non-conference games away as possible to boost the SOS ! ! !   Before this year, Haverford's SOS would have been especially high given all those away matches, but now that the home/away multiplier has been eliminated it won't be quite as high.

Basically right, though it's worth pointing out that the game with Messiah was scheduled as a home game for Haverford. It got moved 5 miles down the road to Cabrini College's Sprinturf field at the last minute, owing to heavy rain. The rest of the scheduling, of course, speaks for itself.

The Falcons had played the Fords twice in the past decade, winning each contest.

2102: 4-0 win at Haverford
2011: 1-0 win in heavy rain at Gettysburg (don't remember why the game was located there, but it might have been the weather since they have FieldTurf)

So, they haven't actually played Haverford at home since ... I don't know when, although I know there were two more contests (both also Falcon victories) at some point in the distant past.

Perhaps they will have the Fords at home next year? If so, I hope it doesn't rain too hard. Would be nice to see that game on real, dry grass. It never helps the Falcons to play in other conditions. Never. 

[Falconer]

Predictions? Lyco home field is nice for them but as a Homer I'll go with Messiah 1-0 or maybe OT 2-1.

I'll take Lyco 2-1 OT.  Messiah has been playing with fire, and they're bound to end up on the short end of the stick eventually.

In keeping with the comment in my previous post, Lycoming plays on FieldTurf (like Gettysburg), which gives Lycoming a definite home field advantage vs the Falcons. That's the main reason I have it about dead even on the odds. 2-1 OT for Lycoming is consistent with that.

Perhaps Lycoming has been playing with fire also. According to the recap on their own site, their last game at Alvernia could have ended 1-1 instead of 1-0. Alvernia apparently had a golden opportunity with 3 mins remaining. Messiah beat Alvernia 3-0 at home last month. And two weeks ago they survived 2-0 at LVC, when their keeper saved a PK and they outshot the Dutchmen only 7-5.

I also will try to watch this one, if the stream works.

[Flying Weasel]

I still think out of all these teams Haverford has had the toughest schedule.  On the National Perspective chat they are speaking of schedules and I would put the Fords up there with anyone especially since they played a majority of them on the road.  I know 8-3-3 isn't great but if they finish with three wins and get to 11-3-3 I would think they would be higher on this list.

@Cabrini
N vs Messiah
N vs Etown
@JHU
@Scranton
@Getty
@Muhls
@Camden
@Drew
@WAC
@Dickinson

Looks like the Haverford coach took a page out of Serpone's book up at Amherst, scheduling as many non-conference games away as possible to boost the SOS ! ! !   Before this year, Haverford's SOS would have been especially high given all those away matches, but now that the home/away multiplier has been eliminated it won't be quite as high.

Basically right, though it's worth pointing out that the game with Messiah was scheduled as a home game for Haverford. It got moved 5 miles down the road to Cabrini College's Sprinturf field at the last minute, owing to heavy rain. The rest of the scheduling, of course, speaks for itself.

The Falcons had played the Fords twice in the past decade, winning each contest.

2102: 4-0 win at Haverford
2011: 1-0 win in heavy rain at Gettysburg (don't remember why the game was located there, but it might have been the weather since they have FieldTurf)

So, they haven't actually played Haverford at home since ... I don't know when, although I know there were two more contests (both also Falcon victories) at some point in the distant past.

Perhaps they will have the Fords at home next year? If so, I hope it doesn't rain too hard. Would be nice to see that game on real, dry grass. It never helps the Falcons to play in other conditions. Never. 

No idea what this discussion has to do with the history of the the Messiah-Haverford match-up, but you are right that the Messiah game was scheduled as a home game.  Now as I understand it, the game was played at Rosemont College--not Cabrini--due to rain.  But whether the Messiah game had been played at home or a neutral site doesn't change the number of away games scheduled which was the reason for joking that Haverford was trying to copy Amherst.

[Falconer]

I still think out of all these teams Haverford has had the toughest schedule.  On the National Perspective chat they are speaking of schedules and I would put the Fords up there with anyone especially since they played a majority of them on the road.  I know 8-3-3 isn't great but if they finish with three wins and get to 11-3-3 I would think they would be higher on this list.

@Cabrini
N vs Messiah
N vs Etown
@JHU
@Scranton
@Getty
@Muhls
@Camden
@Drew
@WAC
@Dickinson

Looks like the Haverford coach took a page out of Serpone's book up at Amherst, scheduling as many non-conference games away as possible to boost the SOS ! ! !   Before this year, Haverford's SOS would have been especially high given all those away matches, but now that the home/away multiplier has been eliminated it won't be quite as high.

Basically right, though it's worth pointing out that the game with Messiah was scheduled as a home game for Haverford. It got moved 5 miles down the road to Cabrini College's Sprinturf field at the last minute, owing to heavy rain. The rest of the scheduling, of course, speaks for itself.

The Falcons had played the Fords twice in the past decade, winning each contest.

2102: 4-0 win at Haverford
2011: 1-0 win in heavy rain at Gettysburg (don't remember why the game was located there, but it might have been the weather since they have FieldTurf)

So, they haven't actually played Haverford at home since ... I don't know when, although I know there were two more contests (both also Falcon victories) at some point in the distant past.

Perhaps they will have the Fords at home next year? If so, I hope it doesn't rain too hard. Would be nice to see that game on real, dry grass. It never helps the Falcons to play in other conditions. Never. 

No idea what this discussion has to do with the history of the the Messiah-Haverford match-up, but you are right that the Messiah game was scheduled as a home game.  Now as I understand it, the game was played at Rosemont College--not Cabrini--due to rain.  But whether the Messiah game had been played at home or a neutral site doesn't change the number of away games scheduled which was the reason for joking that Haverford was trying to copy Amherst.

Thanks for the correction about Rosemont being the location of that game. I was obviously out to lunch.

I mentioned earlier contests with Haverford, simply b/c the context was scheduling tough teams. Haverford and Messiah scheduled each other twice earlier this decade, so if Haverford put a home game vs Messiah on their schedule this fall, it wasn't an unprecedented move for either team. Both teams played substantially more difficult schedules this fall, so perhaps they scheduled each other for the same reasons?

[backyarddawg]

According to college coaches I am friends with, the NCAA decided to do away with the multiplier after the new year so many coaches played away games which maybe they would not in the future.  The reason I heard is the multiplier was too different between home and away.

I still think out of all these teams Haverford has had the toughest schedule.  On the National Perspective chat they are speaking of schedules and I would put the Fords up there with anyone especially since they played a majority of them on the road.  I know 8-3-3 isn't great but if they finish with three wins and get to 11-3-3 I would think they would be higher on this list.

@Cabrini
N vs Messiah
N vs Etown
@JHU
@Scranton
@Getty
@Muhls
@Camden
@Drew
@WAC
@Dickinson

Looks like the Haverford coach took a page out of Serpone's book up at Amherst, scheduling as many non-conference games away as possible to boost the SOS ! ! !   Before this year, Haverford's SOS would have been especially high given all those away matches, but now that the home/away multiplier has been eliminated it won't be quite as high.

Disappointing they got ride of the home/away multiplier. I think there is a true difference between road games and home games and to place them as equal doesn't make much sense to me. Does anyone know why they got rid of this multiplier?

[Shooter McGavin]

According to college coaches I am friends with, the NCAA decided to do away with the multiplier after the new year so many coaches played away games which maybe they would not in the future.  The reason I heard is the multiplier was too different between home and away.

I still think out of all these teams Haverford has had the toughest schedule.  On the National Perspective chat they are speaking of schedules and I would put the Fords up there with anyone especially since they played a majority of them on the road.  I know 8-3-3 isn't great but if they finish with three wins and get to 11-3-3 I would think they would be higher on this list.

@Cabrini
N vs Messiah
N vs Etown
@JHU
@Scranton
@Getty
@Muhls
@Camden
@Drew
@WAC
@Dickinson

Looks like the Haverford coach took a page out of Serpone's book up at Amherst, scheduling as many non-conference games away as possible to boost the SOS ! ! !   Before this year, Haverford's SOS would have been especially high given all those away matches, but now that the home/away multiplier has been eliminated it won't be quite as high.

Disappointing they got ride of the home/away multiplier. I think there is a true difference between road games and home games and to place them as equal doesn't make much sense to me. Does anyone know why they got rid of this multiplier?

You would think the logical thing to do would be to start that next season (2018) since teams have schedules done almost a year in advance.

[Shooter McGavin]

I am going with a 1-1 entertaining and energetic draw for Messiah and Lyco today. I think both teams have quality sides and will play their best today. The field will help Lycoming but the possession and chances will favor the Falcons. In the end I think both will find the back of the net and neither defense will budge after that. Looking forward to watching this one.

[Flying Weasel]

According to college coaches I am friends with, the NCAA decided to do away with the multiplier after the new year so many coaches played away games which maybe they would not in the future.  The reason I heard is the multiplier was too different between home and away.

I still think out of all these teams Haverford has had the toughest schedule.  On the National Perspective chat they are speaking of schedules and I would put the Fords up there with anyone especially since they played a majority of them on the road.  I know 8-3-3 isn't great but if they finish with three wins and get to 11-3-3 I would think they would be higher on this list.

@Cabrini
N vs Messiah
N vs Etown
@JHU
@Scranton
@Getty
@Muhls
@Camden
@Drew
@WAC
@Dickinson

Looks like the Haverford coach took a page out of Serpone's book up at Amherst, scheduling as many non-conference games away as possible to boost the SOS ! ! !   Before this year, Haverford's SOS would have been especially high given all those away matches, but now that the home/away multiplier has been eliminated it won't be quite as high.

Disappointing they got ride of the home/away multiplier. I think there is a true difference between road games and home games and to place them as equal doesn't make much sense to me. Does anyone know why they got rid of this multiplier?

You would think the logical thing to do would be to start that next season (2018) since teams have schedules done almost a year in advance.

The change was decided and announced prior to last season.  I'd have to look up the exact meeting and date in which it was made official, but this was in the works for some time.  A modification of the multipliers seemed more likely, but apparently no one came up with anything that could be backed up statistically and could gain widespread support.

[Christan Shirk]

I still think out of all these teams Haverford has had the toughest schedule.  On the National Perspective chat they are speaking of schedules and I would put the Fords up there with anyone especially since they played a majority of them on the road.  I know 8-3-3 isn't great but if they finish with three wins and get to 11-3-3 I would think they would be higher on this list.

@Cabrini
N vs Messiah
N vs Etown
@JHU
@Scranton
@Getty
@Muhls
@Camden
@Drew
@WAC
@Dickinson

Looks like the Haverford coach took a page out of Serpone's book up at Amherst, scheduling as many non-conference games away as possible to boost the SOS ! ! !   Before this year, Haverford's SOS would have been especially high given all those away matches, but now that the home/away multiplier has been eliminated it won't be quite as high.

Disappointing they got ride of the home/away multiplier. I think there is a true difference between road games and home games and to place them as equal doesn't make much sense to me. Does anyone know why they got rid of this multiplier?

The stated reason is as follows (quoted from REPORT OF THE NCAA DIVISION III CHAMPIONSHIPS COMMITTEE SEPTEMBER 12-13, 2016, MEETING):

The committee approved that the current strength of schedule multiplier be eliminated from the strength of schedule calculation, effective with the 2017 championship. Due to a revised calculation from the original method, the current strength of schedule multiplier is no longer achieving the intended effect as when the multiplier was implemented for the men in 2011.

It's not clear how the change in the calculation of the OWP's and OOWP's that occurred a couple years ago could be the cause of the multiplier not achieving it's intended effect. 

What we have pointed out at D3soccer.com since the multipliers were introduced is that is the multipliers are too drastic.  The multipliers were 0.85 for home games and 1.25 for away games with neutral site games being unfactored.  So there is a 40% difference between the home and away multipliers, meaning an away game is worth nearly 50% more than a home game (1.25/0.85 = 1.47). Therefore, travelling to a team with a .550 winning percentage is worth more to a team's SOS than playing a home game against a team with a .800 winning percentage.  That just doesn't seem right.  It doesn't pass the smell test.  And yet, that's what was used for 6 years.  I'm not sure how much the multipliers influenced scheduling, but from the hypothetical just presented you can see how a coach can elevate his SOS number without really making his schedule more challenging.  Our concern, however, has been that the regional rankings and at-large selections are based on SOS numbers that do not truly reflect of the difficulty of a schedule as that hypothetical example illustrates.  Seems a statistical analysis of results over the past 5 years would have been able to guide the selection of more reasonable, statistical-based multipliers.  And the a statistical analysis was an action item, but no indication of the results of that analysis, but in the end they scraped the multipliers entirely.

[Mr.Right]

Games to Watch

Tuesday
Messiah at Lyco
Scranton at Elmira
Leb Val at Stevenson
Eastern at Kings

Wednesday
McDaniel at Hopkins
Drew at Kean
F&M at Gettysburg
Ursinus at Haverford
Muhlenberg at Dickinson

Messiah at Lycoming is definitely the game to watch this week and maybe this year. I will be tuning into this one!

I will be as well to get a sense of what Lycoming has as I have not seen them this year. I have seen Messiah about 3-4 times.

[Mr.Right]

The Home/Away multiplier was always a talking point because it was skewed to high IMO..I am not sure I agree with everything being equal though..I guess I am not sure what the answer is. I am guessing I was not alone so they decided to scrap the whole thing instead of putting some time into researching a good solution. Maybe that is what they are doing now. Just scrap it until research and analysis leads to a better system. Why do I doubt that is what is going on though.