Mid-Atlantic Region

[backyarddawg]

SOS and RvR are looked at almost equally. But for the first one there are no RvR so SOS will have more of an emphasis along with win% and head to head if I had to guess.

If SOS is a huge part then I would expect the Fords to be higher around 3-4 in this first ranking.  What could keep them is 1-3 vs R&R but does the weight of beating Messiah and possible win at Dickinson on Saturday do a enough for them?

[Mr.Right]

Giving Messiah their only loss will be big IMO. Alone it would not get them in but if they could get 3 wins v Ranked it would push them over the line.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Giving Messiah their only loss will be big IMO. Alone it would not get them in but if they could get 3 wins v Ranked it would push them over the line.

I think it will depend on the others ahead of them and their SOS/RvR as well. The win vs Messiah is massive to keep them alive but they already have 6 blemishes. Assuming they don't win the Centennial Championship that adds another blemish putting them at 7. That doesn't even include the 3 remaining games which aren't going to be easy for them. Losses to Drew, Gettysburg and Hopkins all will make it difficult to jump those teams with the head to head factor. Then the 3 poor ties on top of that hurt too. Right now if I am guessing correctly they will be 1-3-0 RvR for the 2nd rankings and a toss up for what happens with Dickinson is a ranked result one way or the other. That's not good enough to jump those other teams that have the head to head, better winning %, similar SOS and possibly better or similar RvR.

[Mr.Right]

Giving Messiah their only loss will be big IMO. Alone it would not get them in but if they could get 3 wins v Ranked it would push them over the line.

I think it will depend on the others ahead of them and their SOS/RvR as well. The win vs Messiah is massive to keep them alive but they already have 6 blemishes. Assuming they don't win the Centennial Championship that adds another blemish putting them at 7. That doesn't even include the 3 remaining games which aren't going to be easy for them. Losses to Drew, Gettysburg and Hopkins all will make it difficult to jump those teams with the head to head factor. Then the 3 poor ties on top of that hurt too. Right now if I am guessing correctly they will be 1-3-0 RvR for the 2nd rankings and a toss up for what happens with Dickinson is a ranked result one way or the other. That's not good enough to jump those other teams that have the head to head, better winning %, similar SOS and possibly better or similar RvR.

Oh i was being lazy and did not check their record. Had no idea they already have 6 losses. Yea they would have to win out and draw in the Centennial Championship game by PK's to have a shot I guess.

[backyarddawg]

Giving Messiah their only loss will be big IMO. Alone it would not get them in but if they could get 3 wins v Ranked it would push them over the line.

I think it will depend on the others ahead of them and their SOS/RvR as well. The win vs Messiah is massive to keep them alive but they already have 6 blemishes. Assuming they don't win the Centennial Championship that adds another blemish putting them at 7. That doesn't even include the 3 remaining games which aren't going to be easy for them. Losses to Drew, Gettysburg and Hopkins all will make it difficult to jump those teams with the head to head factor. Then the 3 poor ties on top of that hurt too. Right now if I am guessing correctly they will be 1-3-0 RvR for the 2nd rankings and a toss up for what happens with Dickinson is a ranked result one way or the other. That's not good enough to jump those other teams that have the head to head, better winning %, similar SOS and possibly better or similar RvR.

Oh i was being lazy and did not check their record. Had no idea they already have 6 losses. Yea they would have to win out and draw in the Centennial Championship game by PK's to have a shot I guess.

They are 8-3-3 so not 6 losses.

[Flying Weasel]

MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL RANKINGS
http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2017/Men/regional-rankings-1 / http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d3

Rank   School   Division III   Overall    SOS
1.   Messiah   13-1-0   13-1-0   0.606
2.   Johns Hopkins   11-1-2   11-1-2   0.560
3.   Gettysburg   11-2-0   11-2-0   0.580
4.   Lycoming   14-1-0   14-1-0   0.542
5.   Haverford   8-3-3   8-3-3   0.621
6.   Dickinson   9-4-1   9-4-1   0.589
7.   Drew   14-0-1   14-0-1   0.515
8.   Lebanon Valley   9-2-1   9-2-1   0.522
9.   Elizabethtown   8-5-1   8-5-1   0.602
10.   Eastern   10-3-0   10-3-0   0.497 

Data Sheets: http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2017/men/Data_10-18/Mid-Atlantic_Men_Data_10-18-17.pdf / http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankingsRedirect&sportCode=MSO&region=15&division=3

[Flying Weasel]

Haverford with highest SOS in the region.

[Mr.Right]

So how did Eastern get ranked with a sub .500 SOS? Has that been eliminated?

[Flying Weasel]

So how did Eastern get ranked with a sub .500 SOS? Has that been eliminated?

That jumped off the page for me as well.

The only time the committee seemed to acknowledge the use of a .500 SOS threshold to be ranked was in 2010.  The basis for doing so was never clear, because it most certainly was not stipulated in the Championship Manual.  The implementation of the threshold that season created quite the negative reaction when an undefeated Dominican and undefeated Swarthmore were left out of the first weekly rankings.  A week later they had already abandoned the threshold and Dominican and Swarthmore, despite ironically both picking up their first losses that week, were ranked #3 in the Mid-Atlantic and #2 in the Central regions.  As far as I know, they didn't try that again until possibly in 2014 when it seemed very suspicious that Luther went from #2 in the North region in week 1 with a.518 SOS to unranked in Week 2 after winning a pair of games by shutout but seeing their SOS drop just below .500.  When asked, the committee denied any threshold was being used.  So officially, there is no .500 SOS threshold, but there has seemed to be an unwritten, unspoken one at work at times.

Maybe they just couldn't find another Mid-Atlantic team with a SOS over .500 that seemed worthy of being ranked.  With the increase from ranking the top 15% to 16% of teams in a region, the Mid-Atlantic gained an extra spot (10 instead of 9 as in the past).  That may be one too many this season.   

[Mr.Right]

I do remember the Luther situation in 2014. I do not remember the Swat example at all. So Swat had a sub .500 SOS playing in the Centennial? That is more surprising than anything

[rudy]

MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL RANKINGS
http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2017/Men/regional-rankings-1 / http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d3

Rank   School   Division III   Overall    SOS
1.   Messiah   13-1-0   13-1-0   0.606
2.   Johns Hopkins   11-1-2   11-1-2   0.560
3.   Gettysburg   11-2-0   11-2-0   0.580
4.   Lycoming   14-1-0   14-1-0   0.542
5.   Haverford   8-3-3   8-3-3   0.621
6.   Dickinson   9-4-1   9-4-1   0.589
7.   Drew   14-0-1   14-0-1   0.515
8.   Lebanon Valley   9-2-1   9-2-1   0.522
9.   Elizabethtown   8-5-1   8-5-1   0.602
10.   Eastern   10-3-0   10-3-0   0.497 

Data Sheets: http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2017/men/Data_10-18/Mid-Atlantic_Men_Data_10-18-17.pdf / http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankingsRedirect&sportCode=MSO&region=15&division=3

So the SOS you show here is only for conference SOS according to the data sheets right?  I assume out of conference SOS (also in Data) is considered as well in the ranking?  Eastern has a .573 out of conf SOS. Maybe that boosts them

[Christan Shirk]

MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL RANKINGS
http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2017/Men/regional-rankings-1 / http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d3

Rank   School   Division III   Overall    SOS
1.   Messiah   13-1-0   13-1-0   0.606
2.   Johns Hopkins   11-1-2   11-1-2   0.560
3.   Gettysburg   11-2-0   11-2-0   0.580
4.   Lycoming   14-1-0   14-1-0   0.542
5.   Haverford   8-3-3   8-3-3   0.621
6.   Dickinson   9-4-1   9-4-1   0.589
7.   Drew   14-0-1   14-0-1   0.515
8.   Lebanon Valley   9-2-1   9-2-1   0.522
9.   Elizabethtown   8-5-1   8-5-1   0.602
10.   Eastern   10-3-0   10-3-0   0.497 

Data Sheets: http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2017/men/Data_10-18/Mid-Atlantic_Men_Data_10-18-17.pdf / http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankingsRedirect&sportCode=MSO&region=15&division=3

So the SOS you show here is only for conference SOS according to the data sheets right?  I assume out of conference SOS (also in Data) is considered as well in the ranking?  Eastern has a .573 out of conf SOS. Maybe that boosts them

No, the SOS shown is a team's overall D-III SOS.  That is, the SOS based on all its D-III opponents.  It just neglects D-I, D-II, NAIA, etc. opponents.  The non-conference SOS is a secondary criteria that has been added this year.  It's is an indicator of how much a team sought to challenge itself with the part of the schedule they have control over.  If a team is in a weak conference that hurts their SOS, the non-conference SOS can illustrate that the team did a good job of trying to seek out challenging opponents to test themselves.  So if the committee can't decide between two teams based on primary criteria, something like this can be a tie-breaker.

[Mr.Right]

I like that but why is that secondary? IMO it should be Primary

[paclassic89]

It seems like year after year there are some real head scratchers in the rankings.  In my opinion, they need to use an RPI system like D1 and get rid of the ridiculous ranking committees. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Rank   School   Division III   Overall    SOS
1.   Messiah   13-1-0   13-1-0   0.606----def #4 Lyco 1-0
2.   Hopkins   11-1-2   11-1-2   0.560---def McDaniel 2-0
3.   Gettysburg   11-2-0   11-2-0   0.580---lost to F&M 3-2
4.   Lycoming   14-1-0   14-1-0   0.542---lost to #1 Messiah 1-0
5.   Haverford   8-3-3   8-3-3   0.621---def Ursinus 4-0
6.   Dickinson   9-4-1   9-4-1   0.589---tied Muhlenberg 1-1
7.   Drew   14-0-1   14-0-1   0.515---def Kean 3-1
8.   Leb Val   9-2-1   9-2-1   0.522---def Stevenson 2-0
9.   Etown   8-5-1   8-5-1   0.602---DNP
10.   Eastern   10-3-0   10-3-0   0.497---def Kings 2-1

*Note that the records are not adjusted with the recent results*


Next Week RvR:
Messiah (6-1-0)
Hopkins (3-1-0)
Gettysburg (3-2-0)
Lycoming (3-1-0)
Haverford (3-3-0)
Dickinson (2-3-0)
Drew (1-0-0)
Leb Val (1-1-0)
Etown (1-3-0)
Eastern (0-2-0)
------------------------------
Scranton 9-6-0 .570 (2-4-0) (head to head over Etown as well)
F&M 7-5-2 .608 (2-4-2)