Mid-Atlantic Region

[Flying Weasel]

Yeah, F&M need the AQ at this point.  And Haverford doesn't have much room for error, if any, after their head-to-head loss to Dickinson.  Their very high SOS is huge and they do have 3 wins versus ranked teams and 4 losses.  Their RvR can change as teams drop in and out of the rankings, but I think they'll be stuck with those 4 losses.  They may pick up a win vs, ranked if Scranton or F&M could sneak back in, but that could come at the expense of E-town being ranked.  Also, Stevens could drop out of the East rankings which would cost them a win vs. ranked. 

It's going to help them that the Mid-Atlantic has the extra spot this year (10 versus 9 in previous years), as that could help them have one more opponent that they beat in the rankings.  The change in the RvR criteria to include both the 4th/Final rankings and the 3rd Weekly rankings could also help them hold onto an extra win vs. ranked if two of the teams they beat would swap in and out from the 3rd to the 4th/Final ranking. Actually, that could help them hold onto both a Mid-Atlantic win versus ranked as well as Stevens in the East region.

They probably need to win two Centennial tournament games and reach the final (which would also give them more wins vs. ranked) to get an at-large, but who knows.  Depends on what other teams do, both in the Mid-Atlantic as well as teams in other regions.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

It's going to help them that the Mid-Atlantic has the extra spot this year (10 versus 9 in previous years), as that could help them have one more opponent that they beat in the rankings.  The change in the RvR criteria to include both the 4th/Final rankings and the 3rd Weekly rankings could also help them hold onto an extra win vs. ranked if two of the teams they beat would swap in and out from the 3rd to the 4th/Final ranking. Actually, that could help them hold onto both a Mid-Atlantic win versus ranked as well as Stevens in the East region.

Can you dive deeper into the rule change for RvR please? I haven't heard of this yet. So say Drew is ranked in the 3rd rankings but falls out in the final rankings. That would be 1 win for anyone that beat them and say Etown replaced Drew in the final rankings then teams would also pick up a win vs them as well even though they were not in the 3rd rankings?

So instead of just having the 1 win a team would get 2 in that case if they played both of those teams. Is this logic accurate?

[Flying Weasel]

That's how I understand it, MAF.  The RvR data that the committee will be looking at when they are making at-large selections with be based upon the 3rd and the 4th/Final rankings: that is, results against teams ranked in either the 3rd or the 4th/Final rankings.

So as to predicting the at-large selections, we will know the RvR based on the 3rd rankings, and we can anticipate who will be ranked in the 4th/Final rankings and see if that adds any more results into each teams' RvR.

[Flying Weasel]

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Non-Conf. . SOS	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	15-1-0	0.618	7-1-0	0.652	15-1-0	1
2.	Lycoming	15-2-0	0.552	3-1-0	0.553	15-2-0	4
3.	Gettysburg	12-3-0	0.563	3-2-0	0.554	12-3-0	3
4.	Johns Hopkins	13-1-2	0.535	3-1-0	0.549	13-1-2	2
5.	Dickinson	10-4-2	0.577	3-3-0	0.644	10-4-2	6
6.	Drew	16-0-1	0.528	2-0-0	0.548	16-0-1	7
7.	Haverford	9-4-3	0.607	3-4-0	0.652	9-4-3	5
8.	Lebanon Valley	10-3-1	0.538	1-2-0	0.525	10-3-1	8
9.	Scranton	10-6-0	0.555	2-4-0	0.566	10-6-0	--
10.	Elizabethtown	9-5-1	0.595	1-3-0	0.622	9-5-1	9

[Mr.Right]

Haverford might still be in the running for a Pool C with 3 ranked wins as other regions are way down...RvR of 3-4-0 is not bad

[Falconer]

Falcons win 1-0 on a brilliant breakaway goal by Nick West with no time left in regulation. The official assist (singular) goes to Kirby Robbins, but there should have been a second to Brit Haseltine for his perfect through pass to Robbins from the defensive third. The goal ended a very frustrating evening for Messiah, in which Hood's keeper and back line saved several good SOG including a great one saved off the line. Hood threatened a few times in the first half, almost never in the second half, but still were in it with under a minute left. Congratulations to them for a hard-played, well-organized defensive effort at home.

[rudy]

Falcons win 1-0 on a brilliant breakaway goal by Nick West with no time left in regulation. The official assist (singular) goes to Kirby Robbins, but there should have been a second to Brit Haseltine for his perfect through pass to Robbins from the defensive third. The goal ended a very frustrating evening for Messiah, in which Hood's keeper and back line saved several good SOG including a great one saved off the line. Hood threatened a few times in the first half, almost never in the second half, but still were in it with under a minute left. Congratulations to them for a hard-played, well-organized defensive effort at home.

Never seen a goal like that with 2 seconds on the clock! The camera work on this one was enough to give me a headache. Like watching a silent movie...what's with no audio on these streams.

[Ejay]

Yet again, Messiah wins by the skin of their teeth.  I don't know if all these games are making them a battle-hardened team poised to win it all, or if fate will finally catch up and they get blown out in the second round.  I honestly wouldn't be surprised with either result.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Non-Conf. . SOS	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	15-1-0	0.618	7-1-0	0.652	15-1-0	1
2.	Lycoming	15-2-0	0.552	3-1-0	0.553	15-2-0	4
3.	Gettysburg	12-3-0	0.563	3-2-0	0.554	12-3-0	3
4.	Johns Hopkins	13-1-2	0.535	3-1-0	0.549	13-1-2	2
5.	Dickinson	10-4-2	0.577	3-3-0	0.644	10-4-2	6
6.	Drew	16-0-1	0.528	2-0-0	0.548	16-0-1	7
7.	Haverford	9-4-3	0.607	3-4-0	0.652	9-4-3	5
8.	Lebanon Valley	10-3-1	0.538	1-2-0	0.525	10-3-1	8
9.	Scranton	10-6-0	0.555	2-4-0	0.566	10-6-0	--
10.	Elizabethtown	9-5-1	0.595	1-3-0	0.622	9-5-1	9

I am a little perplexed by Gettysburg being ahead of Hopkins given the head to head win for Hopkins which was @Gettysburg btw, better record/winning %, more overall wins, less losses, and better RvR. All of that cannot be outweighed by a lower SOS. I think the committee got that one wrong but other than that the region looks like it should. Hopkins will certainly pass Gettysburg in the next rankings after Gettysburg's blunder to Catholic.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Interesting results last night around the region!

Messiah beats Hood 1-0 on a game winning breakaway as time expires. Shots were only 15-6 in favor of the Falcons. To be a little picky here, I think a majority of us would agree that we'd expect a little more from the #1 team in the country. This isn't the first time they have survived a scare against a clearly average or below average team. The Falcons have struggled with (at the time winless) Misericordia at home and won 1-0 in OT, on the road vs Widener in a 1-0 win, and now most recently at Hood with last second heroics for a 1-0 win. Yes they are winning. Yes they are a talented team. Yes they are strong defensively. But I am not sure they have the firepower going forward to be the clear favorites as other Messiah teams have demonstrated in the past. Is it fair to be this picky...probably not, but that is the expectation when you play for a program as stellar as Messiah. On the bright-side they haven't lost since early September but I wonder if this isn't necessarily a good thing. 5 of the last 6 games have been decided by only 1 goal. 3 of those games were against teams I would consider top quality in Hopkins, @Lycoming, and Leb Val. The other 3 were far less superior than the Falcons, at least on paper. I would be cautious if I were a Messiah fan. But once again looking toward the good side of things they have gotten 5 shutouts in those last 6 games and 11 total on the year. Maybe 1 goal will be all they need in NCAA's.       

Arcadia stuns Leb Val 2-1 on the road and clinches a playoff spot with the win in the MAC Commonwealth. How bad will this hurt Leb Val in the region? It all but guarantees they are AQ or bust at this point for NCAA's. I think they will stay in the regional rankings for the time being.
 
Muhlenberg upsets Etown 2-1 on the road! A come from behind win may be the dagger in Etown's regional rankings hopes. It's AQ or bust anyways at this point, but being regionally ranked is at least something the Blue Jays could have claimed to salvage their disappointing campaign this fall...right? Look for F&M to swap places with Etown in the next rankings pending other results.

Other Action
-Susquehanna survives 1-0 in OT at Misericordia in non-conference play.
-Alvernia dismantles Stevenson 3-0 and clinches the last playoff spot in the MAC Commonwealth.
-DeSales and Moravian battle to a 1-1 draw in non-conference play. Credit to DeSales that they do find ways to not lose. 12-1-4 on the year and haven't lost since the season opener, but a horrendous SOS of .450 and no ranked opponents will keep them from not even sniffing the top 10.   

[Hopkins92]

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Non-Conf. . SOS	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	15-1-0	0.618	7-1-0	0.652	15-1-0	1
2.	Lycoming	15-2-0	0.552	3-1-0	0.553	15-2-0	4
3.	Gettysburg	12-3-0	0.563	3-2-0	0.554	12-3-0	3
4.	Johns Hopkins	13-1-2	0.535	3-1-0	0.549	13-1-2	2
5.	Dickinson	10-4-2	0.577	3-3-0	0.644	10-4-2	6
6.	Drew	16-0-1	0.528	2-0-0	0.548	16-0-1	7
7.	Haverford	9-4-3	0.607	3-4-0	0.652	9-4-3	5
8.	Lebanon Valley	10-3-1	0.538	1-2-0	0.525	10-3-1	8
9.	Scranton	10-6-0	0.555	2-4-0	0.566	10-6-0	--
10.	Elizabethtown	9-5-1	0.595	1-3-0	0.622	9-5-1	9

I am a little perplexed by Gettysburg being ahead of Hopkins given the head to head win for Hopkins which was @Gettysburg btw, better record/winning %, more overall wins, less losses, and better RvR. All of that cannot be outweighed by a lower SOS. I think the committee got that one wrong but other than that the region looks like it should. Hopkins will certainly pass Gettysburg in the next rankings after Gettysburg's blunder to Catholic.

Yeah, I know there's a lag, but it sure seems odd for a team to drop 2 spots. That said, their October run had a tough loss @ Messiah, and then 2 ties at home (Muhlenberg, Swat.)

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Non-Conf. . SOS	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	15-1-0	0.618	7-1-0	0.652	15-1-0	1
2.	Lycoming	15-2-0	0.552	3-1-0	0.553	15-2-0	4
3.	Gettysburg	12-3-0	0.563	3-2-0	0.554	12-3-0	3
4.	Johns Hopkins	13-1-2	0.535	3-1-0	0.549	13-1-2	2
5.	Dickinson	10-4-2	0.577	3-3-0	0.644	10-4-2	6
6.	Drew	16-0-1	0.528	2-0-0	0.548	16-0-1	7
7.	Haverford	9-4-3	0.607	3-4-0	0.652	9-4-3	5
8.	Lebanon Valley	10-3-1	0.538	1-2-0	0.525	10-3-1	8
9.	Scranton	10-6-0	0.555	2-4-0	0.566	10-6-0	--
10.	Elizabethtown	9-5-1	0.595	1-3-0	0.622	9-5-1	9

I am a little perplexed by Gettysburg being ahead of Hopkins given the head to head win for Hopkins which was @Gettysburg btw, better record/winning %, more overall wins, less losses, and better RvR. All of that cannot be outweighed by a lower SOS. I think the committee got that one wrong but other than that the region looks like it should. Hopkins will certainly pass Gettysburg in the next rankings after Gettysburg's blunder to Catholic.

Yeah, I know there's a lag, but it sure seems odd for a team to drop 2 spots. That said, their October run had a tough loss @ Messiah, and then 2 ties at home (Muhlenberg, Swat.)

I am not against a team dropping X amount of slots or jumping X amount of slots. It's the fact that they have the head to head on Gettysburg for one and two all the other advantages mentioned minus SOS. Just can't see how they thought Gettysburg should be ahead other than SOS and more ranked opponents. Other than flipping Hopkins to 3 and Gettysburg to 4 I think the committee got it spot on.

[Flying Weasel]

I agree that having Gettysburg slotted above Hopkins is had to figure out.  The one primary criteria that hasn't been discussed is "Results versus common Division III opponents".  But that does nothing to really separate the two.  They have 6 common conference opponents so far with Hopkins going 6-0-2 (tied Swat & F&M) and Gettysburg 5-1-0 (lost to F&M).  They have two common out-of-conference opponents (Stevenson & York) in which both won both games.  If you look at the scores and margin of victory/loss in these games, it favors Gettysburg a little.

[rudy]

Yet again, Messiah wins by the skin of their teeth.  I don't know if all these games are making them a battle-hardened team poised to win it all, or if fate will finally catch up and they get blown out in the second round.  I honestly wouldn't be surprised with either result.

Blown out no...but could drop a game by  a goal. Certainly have pulled out a few games this year with a timely goal. They need Plaza back and healthy.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Yet again, Messiah wins by the skin of their teeth.  I don't know if all these games are making them a battle-hardened team poised to win it all, or if fate will finally catch up and they get blown out in the second round.  I honestly wouldn't be surprised with either result.

Blown out no...but could drop a game by  a goal. Certainly have pulled out a few games this year with a timely goal. They need Plaza back and healthy.

What is Plaza's injury status? Do we even know what he injured? They look a little lost without him in the past few games.