Mid-Atlantic Region

[Flying Weasel]

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2017

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	17-1-0	0.595	7-1-0	17-1-0	1
2.	Lycoming	16-2-0	0.548	4-1-0	16-2-0	2
3.	Johns Hopkins	14-1-2	0.545	3-1-0	14-1-2	4
4.	Gettysburg	13-4-0	0.545	2-2-0	13-4-0	3
5.	Dickinson	10-5-2	0.587	4-4-0	10-5-2	5
6.	Drew	17-0-1	0.521	3-0-0	17-0-1	6
7.	Haverford	10-4-3	0.591	4-4-0	10-4-3	7
8.	Franklin and Marshall	9-5-2	0.596	2-4-2	9-5-2	--
9.	Lebanon Valley	11-4-1	0.535	1-2-0	11-4-1	8
10.	Elizabethtown	10-6-1	0.576	0-4-0	10-6-1	10

[Falconer]

falcon CB Cooper Robbins has missed three (I think) straight games. Anyone know the situation? He's versatile, steady, and mentally tough--a very serious loss if he will miss the tournament, though Figueroa is as good a backup as there is.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

In the first semifinal, Lycoming crushed Leb Val 5-1    at home and took a 4-0 lead into halftime. I watched a majority of this game and the Warriors looked incredible. They pressed Leb Val to the max and never let them get into the flow of the game. On top of this, Lycoming put away 3 goals in the first 20 minutes and it was all but over, with a couple of incredible goals during this sequence.

In the second semifinal of the day, Messiah had equal success as they tore apart visiting Arcadia 5-0. It took the Falcons a tad longer to find the back of the net but they boasted a comfortable 2-0 lead going into the halftime break and sealed the deal a few minutes into the second half. I thought Messiah looked very good in this game and as mentioned previously I also noticed that Cooper Robbins was out yesterday. Is he hurt? I also noticed that Ruiz-Plaza was back in the line-up which is great news for them but I doubt they wanted to trade one injury for another.

In the end we all get the rematch that everyone has been waiting and hoping for! On Saturday, Messiah will host Lycoming in what will certainly be a hotly contested match. I am interested to see how the Warriors will play on Messiah's grass although they have already won in Grantham in the past, but that has to be advantage to the Falcons. I anticipate another well played game and this will be great preparation for both teams before entering the NCAA tournament. 

[Falconer]

In the end we all get the rematch that everyone has been waiting and hoping for! On Saturday, Messiah will host Lycoming in what will certainly be a hotly contested match. I am interested to see how the Warriors will play on Messiah's grass although they have already won in Grantham in the past, but that has to be advantage to the Falcons. I anticipate another well played game and this will be great preparation for both teams before entering the NCAA tournament.

As I said a few weeks ago, Lycoming has nothing to prove, and this year might be their best team ever--I'll let their fans sort that out if they wish. They certainly have a decent chance to win the automatic bid on Saturday. They beat Messiah twice in 2015, denying the Falcons an NCAA bid for the first time this century. But, both of those games were in Williamsport, and the Falcons were very, very young--it was the youngest Falcon team this century, with (at one point or another) as many as five freshman starters and usually four. Those guys are now juniors, and the seniors on this squad are better than the seniors from 2015. (I'm just doing an eyeball comparison, not dissing the very fine young men from the 2015 class.) Lycoming also won the 2013 AQ in Grantham, against one of the greatest Falcon teams ever (in my opinion, either the second or third greatest). But, that game was a scoreless tie decided 5-4 in PKs, not a victory for Lycoming. So, I can't recall Lycoming ever winning in Grantham. I'm sure someone will provide chapter and verse if I my memory has failed--not that I would be too surprised about that.

I too expect a really good game that will prepare both teams well for the tournament. Messiah will get a high seed unless they lose big, which no one expects. Lycoming is also a lock, and if they win they should also have a high seed. That's very unusual in Commonwealth history, actually, and speaks awfully well for the conference and also for the future of Falcon soccer. It's always good to have dangerous opponents in your conference. We probably all agree on that.

I know I don't do predictions, but this time I will. 2-1 Falcons in regulation. 

[Shooter McGavin]

In the end we all get the rematch that everyone has been waiting and hoping for! On Saturday, Messiah will host Lycoming in what will certainly be a hotly contested match. I am interested to see how the Warriors will play on Messiah's grass although they have already won in Grantham in the past, but that has to be advantage to the Falcons. I anticipate another well played game and this will be great preparation for both teams before entering the NCAA tournament.

As I said a few weeks ago, Lycoming has nothing to prove, and this year might be their best team ever--I'll let their fans sort that out if they wish. They certainly have a decent chance to win the automatic bid on Saturday. They beat Messiah twice in 2015, denying the Falcons an NCAA bid for the first time this century. But, both of those games were in Williamsport, and the Falcons were very, very young--it was the youngest Falcon team this century, with (at one point or another) as many as five freshman starters and usually four. Those guys are now juniors, and the seniors on this squad are better than the seniors from 2015. (I'm just doing an eyeball comparison, not dissing the very fine young men from the 2015 class.) Lycoming also won the 2013 AQ in Grantham, against one of the greatest Falcon teams ever (in my opinion, either the second or third greatest). But, that game was a scoreless tie decided 5-4 in PKs, not a victory for Lycoming. So, I can't recall Lycoming ever winning in Grantham. I'm sure someone will provide chapter and verse if I my memory has failed--not that I would be too surprised about that.

I too expect a really good game that will prepare both teams well for the tournament. Messiah will get a high seed unless they lose big, which no one expects. Lycoming is also a lock, and if they win they should also have a high seed. That's very unusual in Commonwealth history, actually, and speaks awfully well for the conference and also for the future of Falcon soccer. It's always good to have dangerous opponents in your conference. We probably all agree on that.

I know I don't do predictions, but this time I will. 2-1 Falcons in regulation.

Lycoming won the AQ at Etown in 2013. They defeated Messiah in the semifinals. Yes it was in PK's and shows up as a tie on the resume, but at this point in the season someone needs to move on and that is a win in Grantham for Lycoming. They did the same at Etown the next game for the championship. No one will say "oh they tied in the championship." PK's or not, at this point it's a win.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another PK shootout this time around although I don't think either team would want that. If it is tied and goes to overtime I think you will see both sides push for the winner but without exposing themselves too much in the back. Predictions are always difficult especially with 2 of the best teams in the country going at it. Both have to be considered Final 4 contenders at this point and I may have a better chance at flipping a coin than actually predicting the outcome!

I thought the first game between these two was one of the best games I have seen all season. I would expect nothing less this time around. Messiah playing at home will be a big advantage for the Falcons and I think the size of the field will make it easier for them to play out of Lycoming's pressure. With that said, field size had nothing to do with Lycoming absolutely dominating the entire 2nd half in the first meeting. Messiah could not get out the defensive zone and had a couple counters early on in the half but that was all. They looked tired with 15 to go, which may be because of the lack of depth this year, but they fought and survived. I anticipate the depth to favor the Warriors again. Another thing to watch is Ruiz-Plaza and Cooper Robbins. Will they play? My gut tells me Plaza will since he suited up in the semifinal after missing the last few games. But Cooper Robbins has missed the last 2 and that will be an issue on Saturday if he cannot go. When it is all said and done the game can go either way. I think you will see a similar style to the first game which will be a treat for everyone watching. I am going with another 1 goal game in favor of Messiah. 2-1 Falcons in the first OT.

[RetiredWarrior]

In the end we all get the rematch that everyone has been waiting and hoping for! On Saturday, Messiah will host Lycoming in what will certainly be a hotly contested match. I am interested to see how the Warriors will play on Messiah's grass although they have already won in Grantham in the past, but that has to be advantage to the Falcons. I anticipate another well played game and this will be great preparation for both teams before entering the NCAA tournament.

As I said a few weeks ago, Lycoming has nothing to prove, and this year might be their best team ever--I'll let their fans sort that out if they wish. They certainly have a decent chance to win the automatic bid on Saturday. They beat Messiah twice in 2015, denying the Falcons an NCAA bid for the first time this century. But, both of those games were in Williamsport, and the Falcons were very, very young--it was the youngest Falcon team this century, with (at one point or another) as many as five freshman starters and usually four. Those guys are now juniors, and the seniors on this squad are better than the seniors from 2015. (I'm just doing an eyeball comparison, not dissing the very fine young men from the 2015 class.) Lycoming also won the 2013 AQ in Grantham, against one of the greatest Falcon teams ever (in my opinion, either the second or third greatest). But, that game was a scoreless tie decided 5-4 in PKs, not a victory for Lycoming. So, I can't recall Lycoming ever winning in Grantham. I'm sure someone will provide chapter and verse if I my memory has failed--not that I would be too surprised about that.

I too expect a really good game that will prepare both teams well for the tournament. Messiah will get a high seed unless they lose big, which no one expects. Lycoming is also a lock, and if they win they should also have a high seed. That's very unusual in Commonwealth history, actually, and speaks awfully well for the conference and also for the future of Falcon soccer. It's always good to have dangerous opponents in your conference. We probably all agree on that.

I know I don't do predictions, but this time I will. 2-1 Falcons in regulation.

Hi all, I'm usually just a content bystander to these posts, but I thought I'd add my two cents for this game... This is most certainly one of the best teams that Lycoming has seen in a while, and it has been building for the past 5 years. Let's not forget that 5 years ago Lycoming was picked to finish 9th in the CONFERENCE and now they are considered the main rival within the conference! And while you are right that the semi-final game against Messiah in 2013 wasn't a "W" in the official stats, they did eliminate Messiah from the conference title contention and end a 7-year run (I believe) of conference titles. Counting that as a "W" for the purpose of this post, the head to head since 2013 is Messiah: 4 and Lycoming: 3 wins.

While Lycoming does get a chance to play Messiah every year at least once, I'd be interested to know if there is any team in the country that has come close to that kind of record against the Falcons over that span.

On the semi-final game, I think Mid-Atlantic Fans analysis was pretty much spot on. The Warriors came out flying and didn't take their foot off the pedal even slightly until it was already 4-0 going into half. It reminded me of the game that they played against Leb Val back in 2014 when they beat Leb Val 4-0 in Williamsport. It was an all-around "Lycoming Soccer" game. While a lot of the fans out there don't appreciate the way that Lycoming plays, and I will defer to say that everyone has their own right to that opinion, it is hard to argue with their body of work.
Since Coach Gibboney has taken the reigns in 2013 the Warriors have done this (including this year thus far):
Overall Record: 70-21-13,
4/5 Conference Championship Games, 2 MACC Titles (2013,2015), 2 NCAA appearances (2013,2015), Best NCAA: Sweet 16 (loss to eventual champion-Amherst)

Looking forward to the Championship game... WOW! I can't wait to watch this game. I do give a slight edge considering it is at Messiah, but I don't think it will tip the scales too much. I think this match up might be a foreshadow to a potential Sweet 16/ Elite 8 match-up as well. I see this game going to overtime, and for the sake of the viewers I hope it does! I think it is going to be 2-2 going into overtime... although I don't want to make a prediction past that! Thanks for letting me join in on the convo!

[Falconer]

Hi all, I’m usually just a content bystander to these posts, but I thought I’d add my two cents for this game… This is most certainly one of the best teams that Lycoming has seen in a while, and it has been building for the past 5 years. Let's not forget that 5 years ago Lycoming was picked to finish 9th in the CONFERENCE and now they are considered the main rival within the conference! And while you are right that the semi-final game against Messiah in 2013 wasn't a "W" in the official stats, they did eliminate Messiah from the conference title contention and end a 7-year run (I believe) of conference titles. Counting that as a “W” for the purpose of this post, the head to head since 2013 is Messiah: 4 and Lycoming: 3 wins.

While Lycoming does get a chance to play Messiah every year at least once, I’d be interested to know if there is any team in the country that has come close to that kind of record against the Falcons over that span.

Not in the same span of time. No other conference team has ever done that well vs Messiah in the "modern era," that is since Brandt and McCarty were coaching and Messiah was a national contender virtually every year.

Among non-conference teams, Messiah very often plays York, Gettysburg (not this season), Etown, and Dickinson. Those are the teams that would theoretically have a chance to match Lycoming. The great York teams of the last decade actually dominated Messiah at one point. From 2006-2009, York went 3-0-1 vs the Falcons, winning once in Grantham. The Ports brothers, both IMO high level D1 players, had much to do with that. IMO, those York teams were more talented overall than either Messiah or Lycoming this year. Yet, they never managed to make the Final Four, b/c they somehow couldn't score consistently in the tournament, while Messiah won multiple championships in those years. Go figure.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

After sleeping on it I am going to say we will see a 1-1 draw which will head to PK's with Lycoming winning 4-2 in penalties. Bold prediction but it is that time of year! 

[blooter442]

Even as someone who hasn't paid attention to the Mid-Atlantic Region for that long (although I am becoming more familiar by the year), it's been really fun to watch Lycoming emerge in the past few years. The 2013 semi-final win over Messiah (I agree with Shooter -- I call it a win) made me take note, but then getting to the Sweet 16 two years later I think really augmented the Warriors' rise as a legit program.

Kind of reminded me of when Randolph got to the Sweet 16 back in 2011 seemingly out of nowhere on the back of Corey Sindle, who is now an assistant at Wheaton (MA). The WildCats haven't attained that level since, but I think it's cool to see teams go on a surprise run, and even better if they can attain similar levels year-in, year-out, as Lycoming is starting to do.

[Falconer]

Even as someone who hasn't paid attention to the Mid-Atlantic Region for that long (although I am becoming more familiar by the year), it's been really fun to watch Lycoming emerge in the past few years. The 2013 semi-final win over Messiah (I agree with Shooter -- I call it a win) made me take note, but then getting to the Sweet 16 two years later I think really augmented the Warriors' rise as a legit program.

Kind of reminded me of when Randolph got to the Sweet 16 back in 2011 seemingly out of nowhere on the back of Corey Sindle, who is now an assistant at Wheaton (MA). The WildCats haven't attained that level since, but I think it's cool to see teams go on a surprise run, and even better if they can attain similar levels year-in, year-out, as Lycoming is starting to do.

Be careful what you wish for, blooter, or one of these days (perhaps very soon, who knows) you'll see Lycoming manhandle Amherst or Tufts or some other NESCAC team in the tournament. Now, when it comes to Amherst, maybe that would just be a few chickens coming home to roost. 

Nah, I didn't say that. Strike that.

[blooter442]

Be careful what you wish for, blooter, or one of these days (perhaps very soon, who knows) you'll see Lycoming manhandle Amherst or Tufts or some other NESCAC team in the tournament. Now, when it comes to Amherst, maybe that would just be a few chickens coming home to roost. 

Nah, I didn't say that. Strike that.

I may live in New England, but I have no NESCAC loyalties other than a mother (and some extended family) who attended Bowdoin.

[paclassic89]

I'm going to predict a Messiah win.  If this was being played at Lycoming then I might give them the edge but I don't think they'll be able to press Messiah as effectively at Shoemaker.  The big test for this Lycoming program, and what will determine whether they will be a perennial power or not, will be how they perform the next 2-3 years.  They will be graduating 7 starting seniors (by my count) after this season.  In terms of a deep NCAA run, this may be their best shot for awhile.

[Mr.Right]

What was that pass by the Hopkins back that lead to Dickinson's goal..lol announcer called it a brain fart?..Maybe the laziest pass i have seen all year was picked off and scored but JHU finishes one 2 minutes later to make it 1-1...

[Mr.Right]

Much improved stream from the Centennial Conference..well done...

[D3soccerwatcher]

In the end we all get the rematch that everyone has been waiting and hoping for! On Saturday, Messiah will host Lycoming in what will certainly be a hotly contested match. I am interested to see how the Warriors will play on Messiah's grass although they have already won in Grantham in the past, but that has to be advantage to the Falcons. I anticipate another well played game and this will be great preparation for both teams before entering the NCAA tournament.

As I said a few weeks ago, Lycoming has nothing to prove, and this year might be their best team ever--I'll let their fans sort that out if they wish. They certainly have a decent chance to win the automatic bid on Saturday. They beat Messiah twice in 2015, denying the Falcons an NCAA bid for the first time this century. But, both of those games were in Williamsport, and the Falcons were very, very young--it was the youngest Falcon team this century, with (at one point or another) as many as five freshman starters and usually four. Those guys are now juniors, and the seniors on this squad are better than the seniors from 2015. (I'm just doing an eyeball comparison, not dissing the very fine young men from the 2015 class.) Lycoming also won the 2013 AQ in Grantham, against one of the greatest Falcon teams ever (in my opinion, either the second or third greatest). But, that game was a scoreless tie decided 5-4 in PKs, not a victory for Lycoming. So, I can't recall Lycoming ever winning in Grantham. I'm sure someone will provide chapter and verse if I my memory has failed--not that I would be too surprised about that.

I too expect a really good game that will prepare both teams well for the tournament. Messiah will get a high seed unless they lose big, which no one expects. Lycoming is also a lock, and if they win they should also have a high seed. That's very unusual in Commonwealth history, actually, and speaks awfully well for the conference and also for the future of Falcon soccer. It's always good to have dangerous opponents in your conference. We probably all agree on that.

I know I don't do predictions, but this time I will. 2-1 Falcons in regulation.

Hi all, I'm usually just a content bystander to these posts, but I thought I'd add my two cents for this game... This is most certainly one of the best teams that Lycoming has seen in a while, and it has been building for the past 5 years. Let's not forget that 5 years ago Lycoming was picked to finish 9th in the CONFERENCE and now they are considered the main rival within the conference! And while you are right that the semi-final game against Messiah in 2013 wasn't a "W" in the official stats, they did eliminate Messiah from the conference title contention and end a 7-year run (I believe) of conference titles. Counting that as a "W" for the purpose of this post, the head to head since 2013 is Messiah: 4 and Lycoming: 3 wins.

While Lycoming does get a chance to play Messiah every year at least once, I'd be interested to know if there is any team in the country that has come close to that kind of record against the Falcons over that span.

On the semi-final game, I think Mid-Atlantic Fans analysis was pretty much spot on. The Warriors came out flying and didn't take their foot off the pedal even slightly until it was already 4-0 going into half. It reminded me of the game that they played against Leb Val back in 2014 when they beat Leb Val 4-0 in Williamsport. It was an all-around "Lycoming Soccer" game. While a lot of the fans out there don't appreciate the way that Lycoming plays, and I will defer to say that everyone has their own right to that opinion, it is hard to argue with their body of work.
Since Coach Gibboney has taken the reigns in 2013 the Warriors have done this (including this year thus far):
Overall Record: 70-21-13,
4/5 Conference Championship Games, 2 MACC Titles (2013,2015), 2 NCAA appearances (2013,2015), Best NCAA: Sweet 16 (loss to eventual champion-Amherst)

Looking forward to the Championship game... WOW! I can't wait to watch this game. I do give a slight edge considering it is at Messiah, but I don't think it will tip the scales too much. I think this match up might be a foreshadow to a potential Sweet 16/ Elite 8 match-up as well. I see this game going to overtime, and for the sake of the viewers I hope it does! I think it is going to be 2-2 going into overtime... although I don't want to make a prediction past that! Thanks for letting me join in on the convo!

Just a few points of clarification...

#1 – If I were a Lycoming fan I would certainly consider the 2013 conference semi-final PK shootout versus Messiah a "W".  But just to be fair, let's recap that season between the two teams. 

2013 REGULAR SEASON GAME:
Score:
Messiah 2
Lycoming 1

Shots/Corners:
Messiah 23/7
Lycoming 2/1

2013 CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL GAME:
Score:
Messiah 0
Lycoming 0 (advanced on PK's)

Shots/Corners:
Messiah 32/12
Lycoming 2/2

2013 NATIONAL TOURNAMENT:
Lycoming lost in the second round to Rutgers-Camden 4-0
Messiah beat Rutgers-Camden in the final to win the 2013 National Championship

#2 - While Lycoming has been building in recent years, let's not forget that they did not make the Conf play-offs at all just last season (i.e. were not a top 5 team in the Conf).  That was perplexing given that I think they were returning most if not all of their key players from the prior year.  But to be fair, Lycoming did win the Conf outright in 2015 and they are absolutely real contenders this year.  But inconsistency makes it a bit difficult to get a really good gauge on the long-term outlook for a team.

#3 The current record of the two teams since 2013 is...
Messiah 5 wins (not 4 as Retired Warrior quoted)
Lycoming 3 wins (including the 2013 PK "W")

Prediction for today's game:  Just like it is tough to beat Lycoming on their small home artificial turf field, it is also extremely difficult to beat Messiah on their large home natural grass field.  This will be a very hard fought game.  While this will be a game of completely contrasting styles, I think the advantage goes to Messiah in this one.  As for the actual score of tonight's game – I think it will be relatively low scoring – but I can't begin to predict it.  In the end, I think Messiah will prevail.  It should be very entertaining.  No matter the outcome tonight, the good news for both teams is that they both will make the national tournament based on their accomplishments this year...and that speaks well to strength of the Conference and the region.  Congrats to both teams.