Mid-Atlantic Region

[lastguyoffthebench]

Massey Ratings as of 10/14/18

  4 Messiah
14 F&M
15 JHU
22 Eastern
29 Lycoming
39 Haverford
45 Dickinson
63 Gettysburg
79 LVC
85 Swat
88 Drew

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Lastguy NCAA Mid-Atlantic Regional Ranking Predictions FIRST RELEASE

1. Messiah
2. JHU
3. F&M
4. Eastern
5. Haverford
6. Lycoming
7. Dickinson
8. Gettysburg
9. Swat
10. Drew

Here's my guess at how I think the region will shape up for the NCAA rankings:

1. Messiah
2. JHU
3. F&M
4. Lyco
5. Eastern
6. Dickinson
7. Haverford
8. Gettysburg
9. LVC
10. Drew/Swat

[Falconer]

Tonight's a big night for soccer in Grantham.

As many will remember, the last time Lycoming came to Grantham they left with a huge 2-1 win over the Falcons. Both scores came on corner kicks--the Falcons' Achilles heel in 2016 & 2017. To view the two Warrior goals (by defenders Sinclair Tueno and Jack Webb, both of whom are now seniors), go here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aisIkaQjDqc and start watching at 2:00, though if you want a glimpse of Gibboney's pep talk start about half a minute earlier.

Job #1 tonight for the Falcons is to minimize, or even eliminate, Warrior set pieces--while creating set pieces of their own. Contrary to recent seasons, the Falcons are now dangerous again on corners and free kicks. To a large degree, this is b/c Nick West has transformed his game. Where he was previously a marginal AA as a winger, now he's simply the most dangerous scorer in D3, without peer IMO. There's nothing he can't do on the offensive end. He's scored at least once, in a variety of ways, in every single game since the opener against Cortland--where he wasn't yet running free, and they weren't looking for him over the top. (If he scores tonight and again on Saturday, West would tie the all-time record for consecutive games with a goal scored.) Already he has at least 4 goals on free kicks and a few more on corner kicks.

The bottom line: the short corners that were the default option for a couple seasons are now much less common: West, Luke Groothoff, and other players are scoring or forcing the GK to make plays with much greater frequency this year. The ability of the Falcons to create such opportunities will loom large tonight. However, the Falcons still like to score by possessing the ball from the back. No surprise there. They've added by addition, not subtraction. Although I haven't watched the Warriors much this year (I streamed two recent games, including the one vs Widener), from what I've seen it appears they are less likely to try to possess the ball tonight. Indeed, many of their goals this year (and last year) come from set plays. So, here's what to look for tonight:

(1) Can Lycoming create enough set plays to get a goal or two? When they do get set plays--and I think we can assume there will be some--will they be as effective converting them as they were in that conference championship game last year? The Falcons lost two senior defenders from that team, including a 1st team AA (Dakota Rosenberg) who has been replaced by FR Luke Groothoff. Groothoff is probably not as fast as Rosenberg (West might be the only Falcon in that category), but he's terrific in the air. I won't be surprised if he ends up marking Tueno, who is by far the best player for Lycoming and arguably one of the most dangerous players in the nation coming out of the back (Groothoff's skill set is similar).

(2) Can Lycoming stop West from getting good looks? Some teams have indeed limited West's shots; he didn't get a single shot of any sort in the first half of one recent game, though he scored in the second half. So, it can be done--but at what cost defensively? Who else will be open? And, will it require fouling West in a place where you're giving him a free kick? Partly, this is about not fouling any of the Falcons if free kicks are coming, since that can translate into another goal for West. It's no secret that the Warriors play a very physical game, sometimes even over-the-top physical to their own detriment. (Just go find the box score from their final game last fall for concrete evidence of the latter.) So far this year, the Warriors have been called for 196 fouls, including 20 YCs and 1 RC, in 14 games. In the same number of contests, Messiah has 93 fouls, including 3 YCs, and Falcon opponents have 129 fouls with 10 YCs. In other words: if the Warriors aren't very careful tonight, they're going to be giving up free kicks--and Falcons might feast on that. Also, the Falcons have 101 corners so far, and Lycoming has 74. Again--this isn't last year's Falcons. You may want to play them differently.

(3) Will both teams look to counter? Probably yes. They both have a lot of team speed, so this will be interesting. I doubt Lycoming will try to out-possess Messiah, in which case they have to rely on set plays and counters for goals--and their ability to convert such opportunities must be highly respected. Ditto for Messiah: this year more than ever, the Falcons are looking for chances to go over the top or dump and run. West is peerless in that regard. Lycoming knows this. We'll see what happens.

(4) The key matchups: On Lycoming set plays (there will be some of those), who is marking Tueno? (My guess is Groothoff, but maybe it will be Cooper Robbins.) On the opposite end of the field, who is marking West? (My guess is Tueno, or else Webb.) There might in fact be two defenders on Tueno/West in those situations. We'll see.

I'll stick with my standard pattern and avoid making a prediction about the score.

[PaulNewman]

I'll go with Messiah....in a statement game....4-1 or 5-1.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As for Harrisburg, the vote the CSAC had to make was whether to change the by-laws and accept state schools. Now, I was told by a reputable source who would know that the state-school rule would change (unrelated conversation to Harrisburg). I am not sure if the Harrisburg vote took place BEFORE that source's confidence in the state-school rule being changed or it didn't pass and that is why Harrisburg was left out of the CSAC. If it is the first option, there is a chance the CSAC will still allow state schools ... and maybe Harrisburg ends up joining after all. I think it happened the other way around and the vote that left Harrisburg out was a vote in the CSAC that squashed the idea, for now, that state schools should be in the conference.

So, I'm backing up on this last part. I had it on good authority that Harrisburg was denied entrance to the CSAC... I am now being told they never applied. Unfortunately, I can not confirm from the other source as of yet what happened.

So... for now, Harrisburg was interested in returning to the NEAC. Not sure if the CSAC was involved. I am not sure if the CSAC has voted on allowing state schools in the conference or not.

Just wanted to be sure my info was as accurate as possible.

[rudy]

Falconer.. I think based on this year's game stats that Lycoming may not be as good as last year but as you say they could score on set pieces. I saw Luke K leave last gamevwith some injury and not come back. He looked to be the most dangerous and consistent taking corner kicks so that could hurt if he is not playing tonight. With 2 right backs injured the staff has been trying different starting lineups including moving defenders around. Curious what the lineup will look like tonight. Luke G was back at center back last game.. Hope he is back at mid tonight with Coop and Ruark at center back.   Danny Cole started at right back last game so curious if they stay with that. Goodling and Schwartz have played that position before as well.  If weather is not rain then I expect Messiah to control play and win by 2.

[Mr.Right]

Lycoming might not be as good as last year but NO WAY they are giving up 4-5 Goals. If they play their usual direct style and stay compact defensively they will keep this nice and close. Not sure they will Win but I do not see them getting blown off the field

[Falconer]

Falconer.. I think based on this year's game stats that Lycoming may not be as good as last year but as you say they could score on set pieces. I saw Luke K leave last gamevwith some injury and not come back. He looked to be the most dangerous and consistent taking corner kicks so that could hurt if he is not playing tonight. With 2 right backs injured the staff has been trying different starting lineups including moving defenders around. Curious what the lineup will look like tonight. Luke G was back at center back last game.. Hope he is back at mid tonight with Coop and Ruark at center back.   Danny Cole started at right back last game so curious if they stay with that. Goodling and Schwartz have played that position before as well.  If weather is not rain then I expect Messiah to control play and win by 2.

As always, rudy, you're on point and accurate. I especially agree that Luke K is very good on corner kicks (and free kicks, but West now gets all or most of those), and he will be sorely missed.

I agree with your implied judgement that the Falcons are best when Luke Groothoff goes into the MF, but I just don't know whether that works against Lycoming. They might really want him in the back tonight. I bet that's where he starts the game, perhaps even with Ruark at holding MF. Again, we agree that Groothoff is even better in the MF than in the back, but he's also better in the back than the alternatives. Will be interesting to see what transpires.

Do you have any information about the extent of the injuries to Joe King and his backup? I don't like the idea of playing Lycoming without King in the lineup.

[rudy]

Falconer.. I think based on this year's game stats that Lycoming may not be as good as last year but as you say they could score on set pieces. I saw Luke K leave last gamevwith some injury and not come back. He looked to be the most dangerous and consistent taking corner kicks so that could hurt if he is not playing tonight. With 2 right backs injured the staff has been trying different starting lineups including moving defenders around. Curious what the lineup will look like tonight. Luke G was back at center back last game.. Hope he is back at mid tonight with Coop and Ruark at center back.   Danny Cole started at right back last game so curious if they stay with that. Goodling and Schwartz have played that position before as well.  If weather is not rain then I expect Messiah to control play and win by 2.

As always, rudy, you're on point and accurate. I especially agree that Luke K is very good on corner kicks (and free kicks, but West now gets all or most of those), and he will be sorely missed.

I agree with your implied judgement that the Falcons are best when Luke Groothoff goes into the MF, but I just don't know whether that works against Lycoming. They might really want him in the back tonight. I bet that's where he starts the game, perhaps even with Ruark at holding MF. Again, we agree that Groothoff is even better in the MF than in the back, but he's also better in the back than the alternatives. Will be interesting to see what transpires.

Do you have any information about the extent of the injuries to Joe King and his backup? I don't like the idea of playing Lycoming without King in the lineup.

Nick Kane broke his tibia from what I understand. Won't be back this year. He had started to play some right back whereas last year he played more forward position.  Joe bad hamstring pull...with some luck maybe back for NCAA.  He was playing well and has great speed so agree tough without him.

Could go either way with Luke tonight..maybe he will start in back and if get behind move up. May depend if Luke K is able to play. Adam Cole also back from injury and played mid last game.

[Falconer]

Nick Kane broke his tibia from what I understand. Won't be back this year. He had started to play some right back whereas last year he played more forward position.  Joe bad hamstring pull...with some luck maybe back for NCAA.  He was playing well and has great speed so agree tough without him.

Could go either way with Luke tonight..maybe he will start in back and if get behind move up. May depend if Luke K is able to play. Adam Cole also back from injury and played mid last game.

I know every team gets men injured at some point, but it does seem to be a bigger issue this year for the Falcons than in many other years. Has there been one single game this year, when the Falcons didn't have at least one starter out with an injury? For the first several weeks, Cooper was still hurt; in the opening game, Cortland made a point of trying to take out King, Alejos, and your son, and Alejos and your son missed a few games; now, Luke K and King are out. Where's this going to end? I hope they are full strength come tournament time, but in the meantime the back line is always in flux.

[FelixCloudy]

For all the Nick West fans on the board (and I count myself as one - as I was lucky enough to watch him play in the summer of 2016 for a local club's U23 team, his hometown is rooting for him. I really hope his coaches are right, it would be so great to see him get a shot at turning pro.  He is just magical to watch and just a really nice kid too.

http://easthamptonstar.com/Sports/20181010/Nick-Wests-Aim-Usually-True

[blooter442]

For all the Nick West fans on the board (and I count myself as one - as I was lucky enough to watch him play in the summer of 2016 for a local club's U23 team, his hometown is rooting for him. I really hope his coaches are right, it would be so great to see him get a shot at turning pro.  He is just magical to watch and just a really nice kid too.

http://easthamptonstar.com/Sports/20181010/Nick-Wests-Aim-Usually-True

Never met the kid but seems like one of those people you can't dislike from what I have read/seen of him.

Interestingly, the school his team played in the state final in 2014 was Greece Athena, home of Jason "J-Mac" McElwain, the basketball team manager with Autism who hit six (or maybe seven?) three pointers in his senior night appearance back in 2006 and was on ESPN/etc.

[Christan Shirk]

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 17, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	12-0-2	0.591	--	12-0-2	--
2.	Johns Hopkins	10-3-1	0.629	--	10-3-1	--
3.	Eastern	10-2-1	0.587	--	10-2-1	--
4.	Franklin and Marshall	10-2-2	0.618	--	10-2-2	--
5.	Dickinson	9-3-2	0.579	--	9-3-2	--
6.	Haverford	7-4-0	0.626	--	7-4-0	--
7.	Gettysburg	7-4-1	0.579	--	7-4-1	--
8.	Lebanon Valley	7-4-1	0.570	--	7-4-1	--
9.	Lycoming	12-1-1	0.516	--	12-1-1	--
10.	Swarthmore	8-5-1	0.600	--	8-5-1	--

[Falconer]

A very solid, satisfying 2-0 win for the Falcons tonight, despite terrible officiating and a powerful crosswind especially in the second half. Nick West scored both goals--I know, you've heard that before, but it's still true. He has now scored in 14 straight games, and if he scores again at the Homecoming game Saturday night he'll tie the all-time D3 record. Both goals were lovely, but the first is an absolute highlight. Be sure to see the video when it goes up. But, his best shot of the evening was a rocket that suddenly broke seemingly straight down and smashed off the crossbar perhaps mid-way through the first half. A few inches lower, and it's another hat trick.

The Falcons did tonight exactly what they had to do: minimize the corners for Lycoming (who nearly scored on one anyway), stay cool while being manhandled (the most incredible statistic tonight is zero cards, when at least five were mandatory and one should have been a double card on Tueno when he threw the ball down after deliberately shoving a Falcon to the ground and failing to receive a call against the Falcon), and take advantage of the opportunities given. Lycoming hustled, played with intelligence, were well organized defensively--no surprises there. Many teams would have been intimidated by their over-the-top physical play, but the official was the only man on the field who appeared to be intimidated. The Falcons kept getting back on their feet, making the right passes, and taking the best shots. The score tonight accurately reflects the way the game went on the field.

[NEPAFAN]

In what has been a disappointing season Scranton defeated Drew 3-0. I am not sure why Drew is down this year, I thought they didn't graduate anyone.