Mid-Atlantic Region

[Falconer]

with the weak SOS and loss to Messiah last night it appears Lyco will have to win the conference tournament to make NCAA. That seems harsh given they are probably better than majority of teams that will get a berth. Wonder why they played a relatively weak schedule.

Looking at their schedule it looks like they had a relatively tough schedule again before the season started and I remember someone even commenting in this thread that this year's schedule was harder than the previous season. Looking at a few that stand out as a big drop from last year are Geneva, Susquehanna, Scranton, and Christopher Newport. Last season those teams combined for 44 wins. This season they have combined for just 18 wins. I think right there is the answer as these teams who are typically strong performers and NCAA tournament contenders have not had good seasons thus far. With that said, Lycoming's SOS will rise significantly after playing Messiah the other night probably to the .535 range at least from just that game. They also have LVC left and potentially Messiah again so I think their SOS will continue to rise as playoffs approach.   

Excellent points, MAF. +K. You just don't know what your SOS will look like when you commit to an out-of-conference set of opponents. You aren't flying blind, obviously, but you just don't know. Geneva and Susequehanna might be iffy (in terms of lifting the SOS), but you'd think that Scranton and CNU are locks. And yes, Lyco's SOS is likely to go up noticeably in the next two weeks, unless for some reason the conference tournament final doesn't involve both Lyco and Messiah.

[Falconer]

For Messiah, Matt Bills (2000-2003) was the perfect "target" forward.  He was great making himself available with his back to goal, was very hard to dispossess, and he was equally good at scoring himself as he was distributing the ball to teammates in and around the area. With the capable players around him, defenses had their hands full not knowing if he'd turn and have a go himself or would find a teammate to finish the play off, either option very dangerous and needing to be fully respected.

Nick West isn't utilized in a strict target role.  He's proven to be strong and able to play with his back to goal in the center of the pitch (much better than some of us anticipated), but with his blazing speed, he's still regularly moving into space and wide areas with the team regularly sending balls in behind the defense for him to run onto or looking to get him the ball where he can run at defenders.

Bills, for me, was a better classic "target", but West's speed means he has other ways to beat you.  And it's good he does because, unlike Bills who was surrounded by so many capable goal-scorers, he's having to carry the scoring load.  In Bills' most prolific season, 2002 (Messiah's 2nd national title season), his 29 goals accounted for 28% of the Falcons goals, or looking just at just the regular season his 19 goals represented 24% of their goals.  West currently is responsible for 47% of this year's goals, basically double that of Bills in the regular season.

I entirely agree with FW's analysis. I've often said that Bills--who probably shot the ball harder than any other top scorer for the Falcons--was the greatest "target," and I think I used that word in that context to mean exactly what FW says here: a guy who was great with his back to the goal, receiving the ball at his feet and either scoring or feeding someone else for the score. Bills was the best at this, with Josh Wood probably next, at least in the years I've watched Messiah play.

And, as FW says, it was somewhat surprising that West could also do this awfully well--that is, receive the ball with his back to the goal and score or feed. The main difference is that Bills had more really dangerous scorers to feed. I honestly think West's teammates look for him to shoot first and ask questions later--that's what they want, b/c he's just so good at putting the ball on frame from anywhere. While they too will sometimes make runs looking for the ball, I don't think they necessarily want to get it back. They want West to finish--and he does.

West's skill set is larger than Bills'. Bills was absolutely better in his more limited role as a "classic target." No question about that. But this year's version of West can do more things than Bills did. No question about that. I don't think there's anything West can't do well on the offensive end. And, he's a deadly shooter from anywhere and any angle. That's why I believe he's the most dangerous all-around striker Messiah has ever had.

(Incidentally, the full statistics for players aren't available on the Falcon's site prior to 2003, Bills' final season, when he was injured for several games and played hurt in the NCAA, when the Falcons lost to Salisbury on a huge number of PKs. Perhaps FW has access to more numbers. The all-time leaders page gives only goals for the team and for Bills--both of which peaked in 2002. It'd be nice to see his full lines for 2002 and earlier.)

As always, FW, I love to read your stuff. Keep it coming!

[Falconer]

I should add that, if Bills hadn't missed those late season games in 2003, almost certainly he'd have scored at least one more goal, making him the all-time leading goal scorer at Messiah. As it is, he and Todd Suessmuth are tied for first with 68 career goals.

Also, I heard the radio broadcast of that tournament game with Salisbury, including the crazy long shootout that led Brandt to swear he'd never lose another shootout (which is why backup GK Nick Blossey was so well prepared when Messiah beat Stevens in PKs for the national title). It was probably Bills' first game back coming off a leg injury, though perhaps he tried to play in the previous game: the box score for the first-round game vs Penn State Behrend isn't available on Messiah's site. There are box scores for the earlier games, and Bills last played in the Oct 25 game vs Widener, earning an assist on a goal by future POY David McClellan. He then disappeared from the box score until that Salisbury game, missing two games vs Etown--so you know he really was hurt, since no Falcon ever wants to miss playing Etown. (The fact that a striker of the caliber of DMac was available to receive Bills' pass is almost incredible in itself, but that's how Bills got a lot of assists that year. Maybe he would have more goals himself otherwise.)

In any event, it was evident from the announcers that Bills wasn't 100% physically vs Salisbury: his movement was definitely somewhat restricted, and that day Messiah failed to score a goal. I do think those two dots are connected.

Here's the all-time Messiah record book: https://www.messiah.edu/gomessiah/sports/mens_soccer/archives/MSOC-StatRecords.pdf
Notice that it's not internally consistent about Bills' goals in 2002. The list for most points in one season has him in third, with 64 points in 2002 (27 goals, 10 assists), whereas in the opposite column it says he's second for most goals in one season, with 29 goals also in 2002. If memory serves, the former number (27 goals) is actually correct. That's one of the reasons I'd like to see the official stats for 2002. What we can publicly access is suspect.

Also suspect is the current statistic for West's GW goals (https://gomessiah.com/cumestats.aspx?path=msoc&year=2018 ), according to which he has only 7. I noticed an even lower number a couple of weeks ago, and I knew that had to be wrong. I can't believe he has only 7 GW goals. Indeed, the team is credited with 11 GWs, yet they have won 13 games as of this morning. Aren't those two numbers supposed to equate? (If not, I hope someone can explain that to me.) I think West probably has 9 GWs, but I haven't checked the stats for each game to verify my suspicion.

[Flying Weasel]

Bills had 29 goals that year.  That's etched in my mind because of the season he had and the discussion afterword about how he only got 3rd team AA when he was a legitimate POY candidate in my opinion (teammate Hayden Woodworth got POY and not undeservedly, but I would have given POY to Woody in 2000 and to Bills in 2002).  But if anyone doubts my memory, look at the 2002 schedule with results and goal scorers on page 37 of the complete* Messiah Men's Soccer Record Book, you can count up the 29 goals.

Now, one word of caution, there are errors in the record book. I'm making a mark-up to send to the Messiah SID.  Just saying, don't take everything in the record book as gospel truth.  But Bills scoring 29 goals in 2002 . . . that you can take to the bank.


* - you only linked to an excerpt from the record book.

[Flying Weasel]

I should add that, if Bills hadn't missed those late season games in 2003, almost certainly he'd have scored at least one more goal, making him the all-time leading goal scorer at Messiah. As it is, he and Todd Suessmuth are tied for first with 68 career goals.

Also, I heard the radio broadcast of that tournament game with Salisbury, including the crazy long shootout that led Brandt to swear he'd never lose another shootout (which is why backup GK Nick Blossey was so well prepared when Messiah beat Stevens in PKs for the national title). It was probably Bills' first game back coming off a leg injury, though perhaps he tried to play in the previous game: the box score for the first-round game vs Penn State Behrend isn't available on Messiah's site. There are box scores for the earlier games, and Bills last played in the Oct 25 game vs Widener, earning an assist on a goal by future POY David McClellan. He then disappeared from the box score until that Salisbury game, missing two games vs Etown--so you know he really was hurt, since no Falcon ever wants to miss playing Etown. (The fact that a striker of the caliber of DMac was available to receive Bills' pass is almost incredible in itself, but that's how Bills got a lot of assists that year. Maybe he would have more goals himself otherwise.)

Well, not sure you're remembering things correctly.  Bills only was credited with 4 assists that season, only one of which was to DMac.  DMac was not yet the player he became in 2004 and 2005.  He was good in 2003 and had 7 goals and 5 assists, but I don't think anyone could have anticipated the 25-goal season he'd have the following season, just as no one saw Nick West's record setting season coming despite a good 2017 season.  Bills goals were down that year due to a variety of factors.  First, he missed games due to injury and played less 100% other times.  And opponents knew who he was after 2002 if not before and some the replacements for the graduated Class of 2003 were still a year from approaching the same level, so opponents focused even more on shutting Bills down and making someone else beat them than they had and could afford to do the previous year.

[Falconer]

Bills had 29 goals that year.  That's etched in my mind because of the season he had and the discussion afterword about how he only got 3rd team AA when he was a legitimate POY candidate in my opinion (teammate Hayden Woodworth got POY and not undeservedly, but I would have given POY to Woody in 2000 and to Bills in 2002).  But if anyone doubts my memory, look at the 2002 schedule with results and goal scorers on page 37 of the complete* Messiah Men's Soccer Record Book, you can count up the 29 goals.

Now, one word of caution, there are errors in the record book. I'm making a mark-up to send to the Messiah SID.  Just saying, don't take everything in the record book as gospel truth.  But Bills scoring 29 goals in 2002 . . . that you can take to the bank.


* - you only linked to an excerpt from the record book.

I'm very grateful for this information, FW--and for your careful work to correct the record.

[Falconer]

I should add that, if Bills hadn't missed those late season games in 2003, almost certainly he'd have scored at least one more goal, making him the all-time leading goal scorer at Messiah. As it is, he and Todd Suessmuth are tied for first with 68 career goals.

Also, I heard the radio broadcast of that tournament game with Salisbury, including the crazy long shootout that led Brandt to swear he'd never lose another shootout (which is why backup GK Nick Blossey was so well prepared when Messiah beat Stevens in PKs for the national title). It was probably Bills' first game back coming off a leg injury, though perhaps he tried to play in the previous game: the box score for the first-round game vs Penn State Behrend isn't available on Messiah's site. There are box scores for the earlier games, and Bills last played in the Oct 25 game vs Widener, earning an assist on a goal by future POY David McClellan. He then disappeared from the box score until that Salisbury game, missing two games vs Etown--so you know he really was hurt, since no Falcon ever wants to miss playing Etown. (The fact that a striker of the caliber of DMac was available to receive Bills' pass is almost incredible in itself, but that's how Bills got a lot of assists that year. Maybe he would have more goals himself otherwise.)

Well, not sure you're remembering things correctly.  Bills only was credited with 4 assists that season, only one of which was to DMac.  DMac was not yet the player he became in 2004 and 2005.  He was good in 2003 and had 7 goals and 5 assists, but I don't think anyone could have anticipated the 25-goal season he'd have the following season, just as no one saw Nick West's record setting season coming despite a good 2017 season.  Bills goals were down that year due to a variety of factors.  First, he missed games due to injury and played less 100% other times.  And opponents knew who he was after 2002 if not before and some the replacements for the graduated Class of 2003 were still a year from approaching the same level, so opponents focused even more on shutting Bills down and making someone else beat them than they had and could afford to do the previous year.

Quite right, FW--but the problem here with my memory was very short term memory, not long term. I had in my mind that Bills got 10 assists that season, where that number was actually for 2002 not 2003 (according to the unreliable information I showed you). I had simply conflated the two seasons when typing and musing. My bad on that one.

I can't say I anticipated that DMac would emerge dramatically as a striker the next year--I doubt anyone could say that. But's it's still true that DMac was one of the supporting cast for Bills in 2003, and in fact he was third on the team with 7 goals, following Seth Lehman's surprising 11 goals. There were two other players on that team, Dan Wagner and Brian Mohney, who I think had huge HS scoring numbers--weren't they at that time among the biggest scorers in PA history? (You are good at this kind of information, FW, so maybe you can check that too, though it's hardly your job to be my fact checker.) They both scored quite a few goals in their collegiate careers, including in big games. 

My point really was that Bills had a terrific supporting cast of scorers, which West lacks. West's frontline mates are mostly JRs and SRs whose apogees we already know (for sure with the SRs, probably for the JRs). Of the next 8 scorers after West this year, the first one is FR Lucas Kokolios with 3 goals and 5 assists, then all of the others are JRs or SRs. Perhaps Kokolios will develop into a big scorer--I'd love to see that--but none of the others is (present tense) or has been such. Bills played with a lot of guys who scored a lot more than 3 goals in multiple seasons. Obviously the 2002 team, as a team, had simply enormous numbers for playing the type of schedule they played (many good or excellent teams), and Bills' numbers can only have benefited greatly from being part of it, even if not as much as he contributed to it himself. West gets no such benefit: it's almost all on him.

[Ejay]

Can we start a different thread for the Nick West discussion?  I think he's having a great year too, but enough is enough.  There's more to the Mid-Atlantic than Nick West.

[Flying Weasel]

Yes, West finds himself in a dramatically different situation than Bills was in in any of his seasons.  No doubt about that.

[FelixCloudy]

with the weak SOS and loss to Messiah last night it appears Lyco will have to win the conference tournament to make NCAA. That seems harsh given they are probably better than majority of teams that will get a berth. Wonder why they played a relatively weak schedule.

Lycoming typically plays one UAA school a year, and one or two Centennial.  Perhaps Centennial schools dropped them from the schedule?

So I was curious about this, as I saw Lyco play an out of conference game against the Fords.  Last year they played Dickinson and won 3-0, and in 2016 the Fords (T, 2-2) and also F&M who beat them 2-1. No Centennial teams scheduled this year which certainly has affected their SOS.

[Mr.Right]

with the weak SOS and loss to Messiah last night it appears Lyco will have to win the conference tournament to make NCAA. That seems harsh given they are probably better than majority of teams that will get a berth. Wonder why they played a relatively weak schedule.

Lycoming typically plays one UAA school a year, and one or two Centennial.  Perhaps Centennial schools dropped them from the schedule?

After watching Lycoming maybe about 2-3 times every season for the past 3 years I can say with confidence they probably have some issues with scheduling non-conference games. Their direct style, athleticism at almost every position, pressing and physical play would definitely keep some Coaches from wanting to play them. UAA and Centennial teams I am guessing would rather not play an opponent like that because they muck up the game especially if they are running subs in on top of all the previous crap I mentioned. Amherst has the same reputation and if they were not in Nescac I can promise you more than half the league would not play them. More skilled teams see enough of that in the NCAA's so why deal with it in the regular season. Amherst also of course has all the bench antics, over coaching and berating of refs to go along with their unattractive style so it makes for an even more of a nuisance to play them if you do not have to.

[rudy]

with the weak SOS and loss to Messiah last night it appears Lyco will have to win the conference tournament to make NCAA. That seems harsh given they are probably better than majority of teams that will get a berth. Wonder why they played a relatively weak schedule.

Lycoming typically plays one UAA school a year, and one or two Centennial.  Perhaps Centennial schools dropped them from the schedule?

So I was curious about this, as I saw Lyco play an out of conference game against the Fords.  Last year they played Dickinson and won 3-0, and in 2016 the Fords (T, 2-2) and also F&M who beat them 2-1. No Centennial teams scheduled this year which certainly has affected their SOS.

They also played couple good NJAC teams last year..Rowan and RUN I think. Messiah typically has an NJAC in their schedule. Seems Lyco could have had an NJAC or Centennial.  They could be in trouble if they don't win the conference tournament. We will see how things shape up in the next region rankings. I would think they have to get into top 5 by end of season to have pool C chance .

[paclassic89]

with the weak SOS and loss to Messiah last night it appears Lyco will have to win the conference tournament to make NCAA. That seems harsh given they are probably better than majority of teams that will get a berth. Wonder why they played a relatively weak schedule.

Lycoming typically plays one UAA school a year, and one or two Centennial.  Perhaps Centennial schools dropped them from the schedule?

After watching Lycoming maybe about 2-3 times every season for the past 3 years I can say with confidence they probably have some issues with scheduling non-conference games. Their direct style, athleticism at almost every position, pressing and physical play would definitely keep some Coaches from wanting to play them. UAA and Centennial teams I am guessing would rather not play an opponent like that because they muck up the game especially if they are running subs in on top of all the previous crap I mentioned. Amherst has the same reputation and if they were not in Nescac I can promise you more than half the league would not play them. More skilled teams see enough of that in the NCAA's so why deal with it in the regular season. Amherst also of course has all the bench antics, over coaching and berating of refs to go along with their unattractive style so it makes for an even more of a nuisance to play them if you do not have to.

That's putting it kindly...
2018 cumulative fouls thus far (Top 3 in MACC)
Lycoming 212
LVC 166
Messiah 98

2018 cumulative cards
Lycoming 21
LVC 9
Messiah 3

If you're a skillful out of conference centennial or UAA side, the risk of injury might outweigh the SOS upside when scheduling Lycoming

[rudy]

with the weak SOS and loss to Messiah last night it appears Lyco will have to win the conference tournament to make NCAA. That seems harsh given they are probably better than majority of teams that will get a berth. Wonder why they played a relatively weak schedule.

Lycoming typically plays one UAA school a year, and one or two Centennial.  Perhaps Centennial schools dropped them from the schedule?

After watching Lycoming maybe about 2-3 times every season for the past 3 years I can say with confidence they probably have some issues with scheduling non-conference games. Their direct style, athleticism at almost every position, pressing and physical play would definitely keep some Coaches from wanting to play them. UAA and Centennial teams I am guessing would rather not play an opponent like that because they muck up the game especially if they are running subs in on top of all the previous crap I mentioned. Amherst has the same reputation and if they were not in Nescac I can promise you more than half the league would not play them. More skilled teams see enough of that in the NCAA's so why deal with it in the regular season. Amherst also of course has all the bench antics, over coaching and berating of refs to go along with their unattractive style so it makes for an even more of a nuisance to play them if you do not have to.

That's putting it kindly...
2018 cumulative fouls thus far (Top 3 in MACC)
Lycoming 212
LVC 166
Messiah 98

2018 cumulative cards
Lycoming 21
LVC 9
Messiah 3

If you're a skillful out of conference centennial or UAA side, the risk of injury might outweigh the SOS upside when scheduling Lycoming

How does that stack up against other teams like the aforementioned Amherst squad? NJAC traditionally considered a physical conference as well.  My guess is similar number of fouls per game and cards per game. Lyco seems to use stiff arm technique a lot which I'm not sure is a foul as long as not a blatant push. It's the bad tackles or trips that can be dangerous so Mr Right may be onto something regarding out of conference teams staying clear. Hard to say for sure.

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Top 10
1. Messiah
2. Hopkins
3. Lyco
4. F&M
5. Eastern
6. Haverford
7. Dickinson
8. Leb Val
9. Drew
10. Etown

Shooter's NCAA Regional Projection
1. Messiah
2. Hopkins
3. Eastern
4. F&M
5. Fords
6. Dickinson
7. Leb Val
8. Lyco
9. Swat
10. Catholic/Drew/Etown