Mid-Atlantic Region

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As one who dives in deep and has covered regional rankings, selections, etc. in basketball and other sports ... the system works better than any other we have had. It is constantly being tweaked to make it better, but while it can be argued good teams are left out ... that will always happen in a system that is based on automatic bids and at-large choices.

Teams have a chance to position themselves. Whether it is winning the AQ, not losing too many games, and making sure they are competing with a solid schedule (not something easy).

In my years of doing this, I don't know many occasions (if any) where a program that could have legitimately won a national title was left out.

The problem Calvin finds itself is the same argument we make in basketball against Hope and Calvin ... stop wasting games against non-DIII opponents. We understand why they do it, but it isn't helping them to play Aquinas or even Kalamazoo a second time (out of conference). There are less games in soccer and thus one game has a bigger impact. That Aquinas game does not factor into the SOS, it doesn't count on the "in-region" record, and it can't count as a result versus a regionally ranked opponent.

That all said, Calvin has done what it's needed to do. They have one loss.

Don't put that much stock in the first regional rankings. They are a luke-warm barometer. They give you a taste of things, but with more games to be played AND the results versus regionally ranked opponents hasn't become a factor. They will have FOUR games against regionally ranked opponents and MOST of them are in the top tier of rankings. That is VERY good and will work for Calvin.

I don't see Calvin being at risk of missing out of an at-large selection if they needed it.

But back to my bigger point, the goal is to qualify for the tournament... Calvin (and no team) should ever put it in the hands of the committee. Then, yes, they risk being left out.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Lycoming defeats conference rival LVC 1-0 while playing down a man for the final 25 minutes after a 2nd yellow card was handed out to Lycoming's CB. For all you fans that love tracking fouls...LVC out-fouled Lycoming 15-14 in the contest but Lycoming gave up a PK in the first 10 minutes of the game (which was saved by GK) and also picked up 3 cards to 2 cards for LVC. Lycoming also held an advantage in shots 20-13 and corners 5-3. I did not watch the contest but it looks like a tough loss for the Dutchmen after being up a man and still giving up a goal, which came with less than 2 to play. Based on the conference standings we should get a rematch next week with these 2 teams in the Commonwealth semifinals.

Messiah cruises to a standard 2-0 win over Arcadia but the most newsworthy portion from this game comes from Nick West. West was held scoreless for the first time in 16 games! Congrats to him on an incredible streak. 

Some other news from the region:

-Haverford beats Stevenson 1-0 in 2OT
-Catholic beats Gettysburg 1-0
-Etown beats Muhlenberg 1-0
-Eastern visits PSU-Abington today
-NCAA regional rankings get released soon!

[Ejay]

E-Town quietly making a run.  Undefeated in last 10 games after starting the season 0-5-1.  Anyone know what's changed?

[lastguyoffthebench]

E-Town quietly making a run.  Undefeated in last 10 games after starting the season 0-5-1.  Anyone know what's changed?

Yes....

...SOS

haha

[rudy]

Lycoming defeats conference rival LVC 1-0 while playing down a man for the final 25 minutes after a 2nd yellow card was handed out to Lycoming's CB. For all you fans that love tracking fouls...LVC out-fouled Lycoming 15-14 in the contest but Lycoming gave up a PK in the first 10 minutes of the game (which was saved by GK) and also picked up 3 cards to 2 cards for LVC. Lycoming also held an advantage in shots 20-13 and corners 5-3. I did not watch the contest but it looks like a tough loss for the Dutchmen after being up a man and still giving up a goal, which came with less than 2 to play. Based on the conference standings we should get a rematch next week with these 2 teams in the Commonwealth semifinals.

Messiah cruises to a standard 2-0 win over Arcadia but the most newsworthy portion from this game comes from Nick West. West was held scoreless for the first time in 16 games! Congrats to him on an incredible streak. 

Some other news from the region:

-Haverford beats Stevenson 1-0 in 2OT
-Catholic beats Gettysburg 1-0
-Etown beats Muhlenberg 1-0
-Eastern visits PSU-Abington today
-NCAA regional rankings get released soon!

Arcadia played Messiah really tough on their home field. Only allowed 13 shots..probably a season low. I think West first and only shot was with a couple minutes left in the game.  Probably would be a different game at Messiah in grass but still they had a very strong game. The last game against LVC could be interesting.

[Christan Shirk]

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 24, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	14-0-2	0.592	5-0-2	14-0-2	1
2.	Franklin and Marshall	12-2-2	0.611	5-2-1	12-2-2	4
3.	Johns Hopkins	12-3-1	0.594	3-3-1	12-3-1	2
4.	Eastern	13-2-1	0.550	3-0-1	13-2-1	3
5.	Haverford	9-4-0	0.597	3-2-0	9-4-0	6
6.	Dickinson	10-4-2	0.584	2-3-1	10-4-2	5
7.	Lebanon Valley	9-4-1	0.564	0-3-1	9-4-1	8
8.	Lycoming	13-2-1	0.531	0-2-0	13-2-1	9
9.	Swarthmore	9-6-1	0.589	1-3-1	9-6-1	10
10.	Gettysburg	7-6-1	0.589	2-5-0	7-6-1	7

[Shooter McGavin]

Updated Records
1. Messiah (15-0-2)---finishes season undefeated and playoffs await.
2. F&M (12-2-2)---McDaniel left plus playoffs
3. Hopkins (12-3-1)---Dickinson left plus playoffs
4. Eastern (14-2-1)---Kings left plus playoffs
5. Fords (10-4-0)---Muhles & Swat left plus playoffs
6. Dickinson (10-4-2)---JHU left plus playoffs
7. LVC (9-5-1)---Arcadia left plus playoffs
8. Lyco (14-2-1)---Hood left plus playoffs
9. Swat (9-6-1)---Fords and maybe playoffs
10. Gettysburg (7-7-1)---Ursinus and maybe playoffs

Others: Etown (SOS .522), Catholic (SOS .535), Drew (SOS .514)

I think you will see Gettysburg drop out and one of the three "others" slide into the rankings. Catholic hosts Etown which could decide that spot. 

[Mr.Right]

6 Centennial teams are regionally ranked which could set up a situation that 4 of them get Pool C's and if say a random team gets hot and goes on a run you could have 5 Centennial teams getting in. I have watched a couple of these sides this year and from what I have seen Hopkins, F&M and Haverford are "eye-ball" test legit NCAA teams. The two times I watched Dickinson I was not very impressed especially the effort against Messiah was atrocious but they have a decent resume and will most certainly be on the bubble. They have some work left. Swat and Gettysburg do not have legit resumes to get in and I have not seen them play plus with the Centennial only taking 5 teams into its Playoffs one of them will be left out anyhow. But if whoever takes the #5 slot and ends up winning the conference I would guess all 5 teams will get in with Dickinson left on the bubble.

[Shooter McGavin]

6 Centennial teams are regionally ranked which could set up a situation that 4 of them get Pool C's and if say a random team gets hot and goes on a run you could have 5 Centennial teams getting in. I have watched a couple of these sides this year and from what I have seen Hopkins, F&M and Haverford are "eye-ball" test legit NCAA teams. The two times I watched Dickinson I was not very impressed especially the effort against Messiah was atrocious but they have a decent resume and will most certainly be on the bubble. They have some work left. Swat and Gettysburg do not have legit resumes to get in and I have not seen them play plus with the Centennial only taking 5 teams into its Playoffs one of them will be left out anyhow. But if whoever takes the #5 slot and ends up winning the conference I would guess all 5 teams will get in with Dickinson left on the bubble.

Not a chance the Centennial gets 5 teams in. Has that ever happened before for any conference? UAA?

[Shooter McGavin]

That's putting it kindly...
2018 cumulative fouls thus far (Top 3 in MACC)
Lycoming 212
LVC 166
Messiah 98

2018 cumulative cards
Lycoming 21
LVC 9
Messiah 3

If you're a skillful out of conference centennial or UAA side, the risk of injury might outweigh the SOS upside when scheduling Lycoming

I was curious on how Lycoming's totals compared to the opponents they played in the categories you mentioned above.  We all know Lycoming plays physical.  They will always have a high foul total, which in most cases automatically means they will have a high card total.  That was evident in your post.  After some brief research on the stat pages of the Commonwealth teams: 

Lycoming is sitting at 20 YC and 1 RC
The total for cards against them.  20 YC and 1 RC. 
This would suggest if Lycoming is a dangerous team they must get everyone's most dangerous game of the season as well. 

When comparing fouls.  Lycoming has committed the most fouls at 233.  As a team they were fouled 194 times. Among the MAC Commonwealth that appears to be second only to Arcadia at 214.   For Lycoming's fast and physical approach to the game a difference of 39 fouls for/against can still be a point for argument, but this does seem to provide some insight for how the Lycoming games are reffed. 

I don't think this has very much to do with how officials approach Lyco, except that those officials who prefer to "let them play" (which can vary from simply ignoring incidental fouls to swallowing the whistle for intentional cheap shots) will not add as much to their already high numbers.

Let's look at numbers from a few previous seasons, to see that Lyco is typically an outlier on the high end, both for fouls and for cards.

2014 (21 games): 303 fouls, 33 YC, 2 RC
2015 (22 games): 367 fouls, 43 YC[!], 1 RC
2016 (19 games): 277 fouls, 36 YC, 4 RC[!]
2017 (22 games): 354 fouls, 37 YC, 2 RC

The average is 15.5 fouls/game. This year they have 14.6, certainly in the same ball park.

For comparison, the NJAC teams have each played 8 conference games so far this year. Here's the numbers for fouls, YCs and RCs in those 8 games only--for which, perhaps, the set of officials might have a lot of overlap:

Kean         125   13-3
Montclair State   116   23-1
New Jersey City   104   13-2
Ramapo      122   17-1
Rowan      141   8-1
Rutgers-Camden 93   18-0
Rutgers-Newark   103   13-2
Stockton      109   10-2
TCNJ         106   9-3
WPU                   104   13-0

This comes to 14.0 fouls/game for "average" NJAC team. It's no secret that the NJAC has a reputation for being somewhat thuggish--whether deserved or not. This year's Warriors would fit right into this picture, and earlier Lyco teams would be in the top 2-3.

For comparison, consider the MACC statistics, again just for in-conference games. Lyco in 6 games has 95 fouls (almost 16 per game), which would put them below Rowan and above Ramapo in 2nd, but surprisingly just 1 YC and 1 RC in conference. Widener is next with 76 fouls in 6 games; the bottom dwellers are Hood (44 in 6 games) and Messiah (41 in 6 games). Overall, the MACC teams average just 10.6 fouls/game, and if we remove Lyco, then just 9.9 fouls/game.

This evidence, including for Lyco over a period of 5 years, strongly suggests that Lyco's numbers are what they are, not as a result of the whims of officials.

My argument was not that Lycoming was at the whims of the officials and that is why they get called for fouls.  Lycoming plays physical and fast and are going to get called for fouls and frankly that does not seem to bother them.  Your statement that there are intentional cheap shots I am not sure.  I do not watch every soccer game so can't say it never happens and I'll leave you to your opinion. 

As far as your breakdown in fouls I will break it down the same way I did in my first post.

               Lyco                                                                           Opponents
2014 (21 games): 303 fouls, 33 YC, 2 RC                2014 (21 games): 271 fouls, 25 YC, 0 RC                      Difference + 32 Lyco
2015 (22 games): 367 fouls, 43 YC[!], 1 RC            2015 (22 games): 331 fouls, 33 YC, 3 RC                      Difference + 36 Lyco
2016 (19 games): 277 fouls, 36 YC, 4 RC[!]            2016 (19 games): 248 fouls, 26 YC, 1 RC                      Difference + 29 Lyco
2017 (22 games): 354 fouls, 37 YC, 2 RC                2017 (22 games): 255 fouls, 30 YC, 3 RC                      Difference + 99 Lyco 

Now last year there appears to have been a more foul happy team on lyco but all in all the trend seems to hold true that while Lyco does get called for a good amount of fouls they earn a good amount as well.  The argument just comes to is the +30ish too much not the overall total number.  I will even throw in the argument that anyone watching Lyco games last year will admit that Adbi #9 only ever earned about 1 foul for every 10 that should have been called.  But I also know many teams can point to a player like that as well.

To continue your argument of fouls per game

15.5 fouls/game for Lycoming for 2014 - 2017.  Lycoming earned 13.15 fouls/game in that time. 

This year in the MACC Lyco averages 13.6 in the 6 games but earned 12.33.

My argument was just as MAF said.  While Lyco will always have a high foul count, the other side is they take a lot of fouls as well.   Is averaging a little more than 2 fouls more per game than you earned that bad? Or a little over 1 this season?

[Modified by moderator to fix format of quoted posts]

Why do people care so much about fouls? Shouldn't we be focusing on wins and losses...? 

[Buck O.]

6 Centennial teams are regionally ranked which could set up a situation that 4 of them get Pool C's and if say a random team gets hot and goes on a run you could have 5 Centennial teams getting in. I have watched a couple of these sides this year and from what I have seen Hopkins, F&M and Haverford are "eye-ball" test legit NCAA teams. The two times I watched Dickinson I was not very impressed especially the effort against Messiah was atrocious but they have a decent resume and will most certainly be on the bubble. They have some work left. Swat and Gettysburg do not have legit resumes to get in and I have not seen them play plus with the Centennial only taking 5 teams into its Playoffs one of them will be left out anyhow. But if whoever takes the #5 slot and ends up winning the conference I would guess all 5 teams will get in with Dickinson left on the bubble.

Not a chance the Centennial gets 5 teams in. Has that ever happened before for any conference? UAA?

Yes, in 2016 (Chicago, Deis, CMU, Rochester, WashU).

[lastguyoffthebench]

The Mid-Atlantic will have 6 AQ, so my guess is the region as a whole will only get a max of 3 Pool C.   Possibly 4 if Messiah or Eastern are upset in conf finals.

I think Haverford, F&M, JHU are all in... Dickinson will have to reach the finals to possibly get a pool C, IMO.

[rudy]

The Mid-Atlantic will have 6 AQ, so my guess is the region as a whole will only get a max of 3 Pool C.   Possibly 4 if Messiah or Eastern are upset in conf finals.

I think Haverford, F&M, JHU are all in... Dickinson will have to reach the finals to possibly get a pool C, IMO.

I'm thinking Lyco moves past LVC in next ranking and maybe Dickinson in final ranking depending how conference tournaments go. If Lyco doesn't win the MAC tournament and 3 of the teams ranked above them get the AQ they may get a pool C.

[mailsy]

Are there any pool B's this year?

[lastguyoffthebench]

The AEC conference (Neumann, Wesley, Cabrini, etc) is Pool B eligible.  There is a total of 17 teams with only one earning a bid.  This year it's going to be UW-Platteville.   

The remaining pool of 16 teams are then Pool C eligible.