Mid-Atlantic Region

[Hopkins92]

Weekend Games to Watch
F&M @ Ursinus
Swat @ JHU
Messiah @ Widener
Susquehanna @ Catholic
Etown @ Drew
Moravian @ Scranton
Getty @ Muhles
Hood @ LVC
Lyco @ Arcadia
Wilkes @ Stevens
Tufts @ Amherst 

CC Tournament tickets could be all but wrapped up after this weekend, with the top 5 teams (F&M, Hop, Dick, Fords, Getty) playing the bottom 5.  If all goes to plan, #5 (Fords) will be 2 games up on #6 (Swat) with only 4 games left.  Don't really see any upset potential in any of these games, but anything can happen.

Swat almost always plays Hop close and they are coming off of a smooth win yesterday.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

F&M 4:1 Eastern
Susq. 1:0 G'burg
Swat 5:0 Cairn
Muhles 1:0 Moravian
Mis. 2:3 Dick. (1OT)

I'd also like to add that I am shocked by the most recent USC regional rankings. I have come to understand the NCAA regional rankings will be more accurate and make more sense but even from the eyeball test I don't get how Haverford is ranked 5th when they are barely .500 and have more blemishes than wins? I didn't even have them in my top 10 this week yet the coaches have them at #5? I have watched them multiple times this year and they are about as good as their record indicates. They tied Wilkes, who is not good to put it nicely, and have 1 good win over JHU. From just a guess, if the rankings came out today and had the RvR, they would be at best 1-3-2...This RvR and subpar winning % can't be overlooked by having a strong SOS (I am guessing SOS will be good as always). Same for the Muhles as they don't look to have a ranked win yet which accounts for all 5 of their blemishes and won't have nearly the SOS that the Fords have but better win%. It doesn't make any sense from following along over the years as this is the most bizarre rankings I have seen from the USC for this region.

Trending up: Messiah, Lyco. Etown, Dickinson
Trending down: Getty, Muhles, Fords, Stevens

I had exactly the opposite thought: I was wondering why both you and Shooter have the Fords ranked so low. I'll admit up front that I haven't yet seen them play this year, so I can't apply the eyeball test.  With that noted, let's compare the Fords to Muhles, a team that Haverford just defeated.  Yes, the Muhles are 7-3-2 to the Fords' 5-3-3.  But let's compare their records against similar teams.

Against top-50 teams (per Massey), Fords are 2-2-2, Muhles are 0-3-2.
Against #51-#148, Fords are 2-0-1, Muhles are 1-0.
Against sub-148 teams, Fords are 1-1, Muhles are 6-0.

So it seems to me that the difference in record is primarily due to differences in schedule strength.  BTW, in case you're wondering why I put the break point at 148, it's because Wilkes is currently #149, so I deliberately constructed this comparison to make Haverford's record look as bad as possible by lumping Wilkes in with a lot of teams that are much worse than Wilkes.  Even so, I find Haverford's record more impressive than Muhles.

I wasn't comparing Muhles and Fords I was saying I think both are ranked to high. I think teams like Lycoming and Dickinson and even Etown who have less or similar blemishes should be in the mixer yet they aren't even discussed. I stand by Haverford being at #5 is WAYYYY too high for their resume but that's just my take. I totally agree with you that they have a better resume than Muhles no doubt about it and never argued that.

I understand the push back on Moravian from Franklyspeaking, but have watched them 3 or 4 times this year and think they are overall solid and difficult to break down which makes them competitive every time they step on the field. Do I think they are competing for an at-large at this point--NO but do I think they should be in the discussion of regionally ranked per the USC polls--YES. They beat Wilkes who the Fords tied, tied a Ramapo team who has only lost once all year and battled Montclair, Lyco and Muhles all to 1-0 games. If any one of those losses go the other way I think the conversation is different around them. Once again I think they should be discussed to be ranked I do not think they should be discussed for an at-large as the SOS ultimately wont be high enough compared to others and the RvR won't be the best. For the sake of this argument they should be in over Stevens if we are going by the below data and USC poll.     

Against top-50 teams (per Massey), Fords are 2-2-2, Muhles are 0-3-2, Lyco are 1-3-0, Dickinson are 2-3-0, Etown are 0-3-0, Moravian are 0-2-0, Stevens are 0-1-0
Against #51-#148, Fords are 2-0-1, Muhles are 1-0, Lyco are 4-1-0, Dickinson are 2-2-0, Etown are 2-0-1, Moravian are 0-1-1, Stevens are 0-2-1
Against sub-148 teams, Fords are 1-1, Muhles are 6-0, Lycoming are 2-0-0, Dickinson are 3-0-0, Etown are 5-0-0, Moravian are 8-0-0, Stevens are 6-0-1

So I guess the question is what outweighs what (leaving Muhles and Moravian out as we all agree they are bottom of this grouping w/Stevens)?
Fords are 4-2-3 vs top 148 vs Lyco who is 5-4-0 vs Dickinson who is 4-5-0 vs Etown who is 2-3-1.
Lyco-Dickinson-Fords have all played 9 games against top 148 so all are even with that. 
Lyco has the most wins and least blemishes, Fords have the least losses (Etown technically has the least blemishes but played the least teams in that range).
Fords are the only team to lose to a team outside the top 148 as none of the other teams have lost a game to a sub148 team (This includes all the teams above btw). 
Overall Etown and Lyco have higher win percentages and less blemishes than Haverford and Dickinson.
So my question is still why is Haverford slotted 5/10 in the rankings, Stevens still ranked but Moravian shouldn't be, Etown only being 9th and Lyco or Dickinson not even discussed or ranked?

Should the Fords be ranked--sure you clearly made the case for that but I disagree that they should be top 5 right now and that was my original statement.
   

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Weekend Games to Watch
F&M @ Ursinus
Swat @ JHU
Messiah @ Widener
Susquehanna @ Catholic
Etown @ Drew
Moravian @ Scranton
Getty @ Muhles
Hood @ LVC
Lyco @ Arcadia
Wilkes @ Stevens
Tufts @ Amherst 

(Slightly Less) Meaningless Stat of the Day:

Ursinus, who took Dickinson to OT last weekend, hasn't won a CC game since a 2014 win over McDaniel.  Can the Bears build on last weekends performance and shock the Dips at home this weekend?

Love these meaningless stats 

[YoungBuck]

Weekend Games to Watch
F&M @ Ursinus
Swat @ JHU
Messiah @ Widener
Susquehanna @ Catholic
Etown @ Drew
Moravian @ Scranton
Getty @ Muhles
Hood @ LVC
Lyco @ Arcadia
Wilkes @ Stevens
Tufts @ Amherst 

CC Tournament tickets could be all but wrapped up after this weekend, with the top 5 teams (F&M, Hop, Dick, Fords, Getty) playing the bottom 5.  If all goes to plan, #5 (Fords) will be 2 games up on #6 (Swat) with only 4 games left.  Don't really see any upset potential in any of these games, but anything can happen.

Swat almost always plays Hop close and they are coming off of a smooth win yesterday.

ALMOST always  https://swarthmoreathletics.com/sports/mens-soccer/stats/2015/johns-hopkins/boxscore/6315

[FelixCloudy]

I had exactly the opposite thought: I was wondering why both you and Shooter have the Fords ranked so low. I'll admit up front that I haven't yet seen them play this year, so I can't apply the eyeball test. 

Maybe the Fords vs.McDaniel tomorrow at 4 pm should be added to the list of "games to watch" this weekend. Then we can see if their USC regional ranking is undeserved ... or understandable given their SOS is one the toughest in the country.  MAF is right - the Wilkes 2OT tie was truly not good, but they lost their 2 of their 3 senior captains to serious injuries - one of them in that very game.  The team has rallied since then and stepped up; the win against JHU, and two come from behind games against the Mules (a win 3-2), and Getty (tied 2-2).  Time will tell if their remaining CC results propel them to the recent success they've had as CC champions 3 of the last 4 years.  I wouldn't count them out yet.

[Hopkins92]

Weekend Games to Watch
F&M @ Ursinus
Swat @ JHU
Messiah @ Widener
Susquehanna @ Catholic
Etown @ Drew
Moravian @ Scranton
Getty @ Muhles
Hood @ LVC
Lyco @ Arcadia
Wilkes @ Stevens
Tufts @ Amherst 

CC Tournament tickets could be all but wrapped up after this weekend, with the top 5 teams (F&M, Hop, Dick, Fords, Getty) playing the bottom 5.  If all goes to plan, #5 (Fords) will be 2 games up on #6 (Swat) with only 4 games left.  Don't really see any upset potential in any of these games, but anything can happen.

Swat almost always plays Hop close and they are coming off of a smooth win yesterday.

ALMOST always  https://swarthmoreathletics.com/sports/mens-soccer/stats/2015/johns-hopkins/boxscore/6315

Yeah, again, I'm sometimes guilty of being in a time warp back to the late 80s/90s, BUT... The teams have pretty much split (4-5-1) over the last 8 or 9 years and the overall series record is 32-28-9 (with Hop ahead), so... Pretty even in the grand scheme.

But, yeah, that was a butt whooping.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I had exactly the opposite thought: I was wondering why both you and Shooter have the Fords ranked so low. I'll admit up front that I haven't yet seen them play this year, so I can't apply the eyeball test. 

Maybe the Fords vs.McDaniel tomorrow at 4 pm should be added to the list of "games to watch" this weekend. Then we can see if their USC regional ranking is undeserved ... or understandable given their SOS is one the toughest in the country.  MAF is right - the Wilkes 2OT tie was truly not good, but they lost their 2 of their 3 senior captains to serious injuries - one of them in that very game.  The team has rallied since then and stepped up; the win against JHU, and two come from behind games against the Mules (a win 3-2), and Getty (tied 2-2).  Time will tell if their remaining CC results propel them to the recent success they've had as CC champions 3 of the last 4 years.  I wouldn't count them out yet.

I am not discrediting how good they are or could be. I am just stating I believe 5 is too high for the current resume that is all. I am sure they will be in the mixer toward the end of the year as they tend to always be. But right now I think 5 is too high and I don't think they would be that high in the NCAA regional rankings but who knows. Also injuries happen for every team it's a part of the game. Messiah has been crippled by injuries over the past couple years and that wasn't used as an excuse for them so I am not a fan of that angle. Also the angle of if they beat one of the bottom 2 teams in conference means the rankings is deserved is also one I am in disagreement with. Once again I am not counting them out and I think they are definitely down this year from what I have watched compared to years past but right not they are not the 5th best team in the region from my viewpoint. I like the dialogue and appreciate the conversation on this so please don't take my statements any other way I appreciate the differing opinions 

[FelixCloudy]

Maybe the Fords vs.McDaniel tomorrow at 4 pm should be added to the list of "games to watch" this weekend.

Game postponed until 10/23 @ 3:30.  McDaniel's bus did not show up!!   

MAF...I understand and appreciate your POV on the Fords USC regional ranking being high for their record so far.  Probably their SOS and win against JHU has boosted them and Massey has them at 26 nationally...SOS being a major factor there too.  Wish we both could have watched today's game and debated the outcome!  CC tournament will be the final arbiter...and only halfway through the regular season.  I AM a rabid Fords homer... but love the reading the board as I love the sport and appreciate everyone's opinions too.

[Shooter McGavin]

F&M 4:1 Eastern
Susq. 1:0 G'burg
Swat 5:0 Cairn
Muhles 1:0 Moravian
Mis. 2:3 Dick. (1OT)

I'd also like to add that I am shocked by the most recent USC regional rankings. I have come to understand the NCAA regional rankings will be more accurate and make more sense but even from the eyeball test I don't get how Haverford is ranked 5th when they are barely .500 and have more blemishes than wins? I didn't even have them in my top 10 this week yet the coaches have them at #5? I have watched them multiple times this year and they are about as good as their record indicates. They tied Wilkes, who is not good to put it nicely, and have 1 good win over JHU. From just a guess, if the rankings came out today and had the RvR, they would be at best 1-3-2...This RvR and subpar winning % can't be overlooked by having a strong SOS (I am guessing SOS will be good as always). Same for the Muhles as they don't look to have a ranked win yet which accounts for all 5 of their blemishes and won't have nearly the SOS that the Fords have but better win%. It doesn't make any sense from following along over the years as this is the most bizarre rankings I have seen from the USC for this region.

Trending up: Messiah, Lyco. Etown, Dickinson
Trending down: Getty, Muhles, Fords, Stevens

I had exactly the opposite thought: I was wondering why both you and Shooter have the Fords ranked so low. I'll admit up front that I haven't yet seen them play this year, so I can't apply the eyeball test.  With that noted, let's compare the Fords to Muhles, a team that Haverford just defeated.  Yes, the Muhles are 7-3-2 to the Fords' 5-3-3.  But let's compare their records against similar teams.

Against top-50 teams (per Massey), Fords are 2-2-2, Muhles are 0-3-2.
Against #51-#148, Fords are 2-0-1, Muhles are 1-0.
Against sub-148 teams, Fords are 1-1, Muhles are 6-0.

So it seems to me that the difference in record is primarily due to differences in schedule strength.  BTW, in case you're wondering why I put the break point at 148, it's because Wilkes is currently #149, so I deliberately constructed this comparison to make Haverford's record look as bad as possible by lumping Wilkes in with a lot of teams that are much worse than Wilkes.  Even so, I find Haverford's record more impressive than Muhles.

I am low on them because I don't think they are very good. Did anybody see their game against Scranton earlier in the week? They are fortunate to be 5-3-3 right now. They literally have 1 good win vs JHU where they were outplayed and outshot by a sizable margin. None of the 4 other games they won are good wins and the difficult contests they have had they are 0-3-2 in outside of the JHU game (Centre, Rowan, Camden, F&M, Gettysburg) which doesn't even include the Wilkes tie. They have been outshot in all of these games by JHU 22-2 WON?, Centre 16-12 LOST, Rowan 25-16 TIED, Camden 13-12 LOST, F&M 15-9 LOST, Gettysburg 22-14 TIED. Doesn't benefit the case very much to have data show they haven't been the better side let alone even equal in many of these games. I don't think they should even be ranked right now.     

[FelixCloudy]

I am low on them because I don't think they are very good. Did anybody see their game against Scranton earlier in the week? They are fortunate to be 5-3-3 right now. They literally have 1 good win vs JHU where they were outplayed and outshot by a sizable margin. None of the 4 other games they won are good wins and the difficult contests they have had they are 0-3-2 in outside of the JHU game (Centre, Rowan, Camden, F&M, Gettysburg) which doesn't even include the Wilkes tie. They have been outshot in all of these games by JHU 22-2 WON?, Centre 16-12 LOST, Rowan 25-16 TIED, Camden 13-12 LOST, F&M 15-9 LOST, Gettysburg 22-14 TIED. Doesn't benefit the case very much to have data show they haven't been the better side let alone even equal in many of these games. I don't think they should even be ranked right now.

It's the quality of the shots...not the quantity that matters.  Honestly, we really don't have truly good stats that are indicative of a team's performance, such as possession time in the offensive third for example - or pass accuracy, so it's tough to debate.  SOG might be a better data point, which for the games you cited are:

JHU 11-2 (WON 1-0)
Centre 5-5 (LOST 2-0)
Rowan 11-6 (TIED 2-2 in 2OT)
Camden 6-8 (LOST 3-2 in OT)
F&M 9-5 (2-1 LOST)
Gettysburg 9-5 (TIED 2-2 in 2OT)

I would posit the Fords play a style where they take fewer shots, but those they do take have a higher potential to score.  They were unlucky in 4 OT games, (including the Wilkes 2OT scoreless game (32 shots, SOG 10 to Wilkes 4 ugh), but only one of their losses were they outshot on goal (F&M), the other where they had the same SOG stat (Centre). 

The remainder of conference play will show if the USC ranking is legit and should be confirmed by the NCAA regional ranking in a few weeks.

[Hopkins92]

Catholic 3:2 Susq. (Catholic needed an 81st minute goal to take this one.)
Muhles 1:2 G'burg (A ton of yellow cards for the Muhles. I don't know if this got ugly early for some reason, but I watched most of the second half and it was VERY chippy.)
Alvernia 1:0 Stevenson (This happened on Friday... Pretty bad L for Stevenson)
F&M 2:1 Drew (Dips keep the momentum going 5-0 in the CC)

Dickinson about to kick off against WC; Hopkins and Swat square off at 6:30. Messiah at Widener @ 7:30.

[rudy]

Catholic 3:2 Susq. (Catholic needed an 81st minute goal to take this one.)
Muhles 1:2 G'burg (A ton of yellow cards for the Muhles. I don't know if this got ugly early for some reason, but I watched most of the second half and it was VERY chippy.)
Alvernia 1:0 Stevenson (This happened on Friday... Pretty bad L for Stevenson)
F&M 2:1 Drew (Dips keep the momentum going 5-0 in the CC)

Dickinson about to kick off against WC; Hopkins and Swat square off at 6:30. Messiah at Widener @ 7:30.

Not surprised by the Alvernia win. They also beat Hood past week.  They were the best darn 1-9 team I've seen when they played Messiah. High pressure all game, intercepted a ton of passes. Maybe they had injuries early on or just needed time to gel. That was a much tougher game than John Carrol game. Most losses were also by 1 goal..they were not getting badly beaten.

[FelixCloudy]

Also Elizabethtown 2:0 Drew; 2-0 now in Landmark conference play, 8-3-1 overall.  They don't play Catholic until the last regular season game.

[FelixCloudy]

F&M 2:1 Drew (Dips keep the momentum going 5-0 in the CC)

F&M was against Ursinus.  Tied 1-1 until 80th minute.  Chippy at the end... YC for both teams.

[Falconer]

Catholic 3:2 Susq. (Catholic needed an 81st minute goal to take this one.)
Muhles 1:2 G'burg (A ton of yellow cards for the Muhles. I don't know if this got ugly early for some reason, but I watched most of the second half and it was VERY chippy.)
Alvernia 1:0 Stevenson (This happened on Friday... Pretty bad L for Stevenson)
F&M 2:1 Drew (Dips keep the momentum going 5-0 in the CC)

Dickinson about to kick off against WC; Hopkins and Swat square off at 6:30. Messiah at Widener @ 7:30.

Not surprised by the Alvernia win. They also beat Hood past week.  They were the best darn 1-9 team I've seen when they played Messiah. High pressure all game, intercepted a ton of passes. Maybe they had injuries early on or just needed time to gel. That was a much tougher game than John Carrol game. Most losses were also by 1 goal..they were not getting badly beaten.

I fully agree with Rudy. I cannot understand how they have that record: they are well coached, well organized, and they play hard. If they keep playing this well, they will make the conference tournament.