Mid-Atlantic Region

[FelixCloudy]

F&M @ Hop (10/19)
LVC @ Messiah (10/19)
Cath @ Juniata (10/19)
G-berg @ Dickinson (10/19)
Scranton @ Etown (10/19)
Swat @ Western Maryland (10/19)
FDU-F @ Stevens (10/19)
Fords @ WashC (10/19)

Obviously, Dips v. Jays is the match of the weekend, but a ton of very interesting/important games up and down the region.

Hop @ F&M      1-0 
LVC @ Messiah. 0-1
Cath @ Juniata  2-0
Dickinson @ Getty.  2-4
Scranton @ Etown    2-1
Swat @ Western Maryland    1-0
FDU-F @ Stevens    0-3
Fords @ WashC     1-0

[rudy]

Anyone watch the F&M vs Hopkins game? Stats favor F&M slightly but score obviously goes to Hopkins. 15 shots to 10 and 6 sog to 4. Curious what possession looked like and overall view of which team played better.

Messiah has been undefeated since opening weekend when missing several important players.  Not winning by a lot with many 1-0 games but a win is a win. Usually well ahead on  shots and sog but not finishing many attempts. The good news is the defense is playing strong with very good goalkeeping. I'm pretty sure the current starting 4 while healthy enough to all play together may have let in one goal at most for the year. And that was a free kick not in the run of play. Last 8 games are a clean sheet with exception of  a last second goal in a 5-1 win with the entire bench playing. They are still subbing generously,  including the defense, so that second defensive unit is holding up as well. As Tufts has shown in recent years a good defense can win you a championship even if not scoring tons of goals.

[Hopkins92]

Lycoming beats Stevenson 1:0
Moravian beats Drew 2:1
Muhles beat Ursinus 1:0

Going back and looking at past results... Gettysburg losing to Susquehanna might be a real dagger. Will be interesting to see what this week's rankings look like.

[Falconer]

Here's the latest on Nick West's budding professional career with Stumptown Athletic:
https://twitter.com/mystumptown/status/1184948490306232320

[Hopkins92]

Anyone watch the F&M vs Hopkins game? Stats favor F&M slightly but score obviously goes to Hopkins. 15 shots to 10 and 6 sog to 4. Curious what possession looked like and overall view of which team played better.

Messiah has been undefeated since opening weekend when missing several important players.  Not winning by a lot with many 1-0 games but a win is a win. Usually well ahead on  shots and sog but not finishing many attempts. The good news is the defense is playing strong with very good goalkeeping. I'm pretty sure the current starting 4 while healthy enough to all play together may have let in one goal at most for the year. And that was a free kick not in the run of play. Last 8 games are a clean sheet with exception of  a last second goal in a 5-1 win with the entire bench playing. They are still subbing generously,  including the defense, so that second defensive unit is holding up as well. As Tufts has shown in recent years a good defense can win you a championship even if not scoring tons of goals.

Didn't see the game but from the write-up a few nuggets:

* - Hop scored with 35 seconds left in the first half.
* - This is the highest rated team Hop has beaten. Other highest was beating Chris. Newport back 2010. Both games on the road.
* - F&M's first home conference loss since 2015 - 17 straight. That's damn impressive.

https://www.godiplomats.com/sports/m-soccer/2019-20/releases/20191019mu5fc0

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Power Rankings
1. F&M--12-2-0
2. Hopkins--10-2-1
3. Messiah--11-2-2
4. Catholic--13-2-1
5. Gettysburg--8-4-1 
6. Swat--9-2-3
7. Fords--7-3-3
8. Stevens--9-3-2 
9. Etown--9-4-1
T10. Lyco/Dickinson--8-6-0
HM: Scranton, Kings, Eastern, Moravian, PSU-Harrisburg, Keystone

NCAA Regional Predicitons
1. F&M
2. Hopkins
3. Messiah
4. Gettyburg
5. Fords
6. Catholic
7. Swat
8. Etown
9. Stevens
10. Lyco/Dickinson/Scranton/Muhles???

No idea on how this will shake out. Always tough to gauge for the first rankings as no RvR is involved so the prioity shifts to mainly SOS and overall win%. Second rankings and onward are easier to predict as the RvR jumps ahead of the win% weight that the first rankings focus on. I had trouble distinguishing 4th, 5th and 6th. Catholic got blanked by Gettysburg early on and will have a low SOS but great win% and some quality wins when the RvR comes into play. I just feel the SOS is going to haunt them compared to Gettysburg and Haverford. Gettysburg and Haverford tied so can't split them with that and both have similar resumes and blemishes. I give Gettysburg the slight edge this time but think when RvR comes into play Haverford will jump them. SOS should be similiar for both. Same goes for the rest of the rankings. Etown and Stevens both with better win% than Dickinson and Lycoming but SOS will be poor for both Etown and Stevens compared to Dickinson and Lyco. I think both those teams will jump come the second rankings but are near the bottom or not even in for the first rankings. I like to look to run of form as well of who is playing well now compared to earlier in the year. Muhles are just 2-4-1 in their last 7 games. Not good enough for me to jump Dickinson, Lycoming or Scranton despite having a better win% and will most likely have 0 ranked wins come week 2 as well which won't help the cause. Should be interesting to see how things shake up here on Wednesday.     

[Hopkins92]

F&M @ WashC (Sat, 10/26)
Neumann @ Hop (Tues, 10/22); Hop @ Ursinus (10/26)
Messiah @ Hood (10/22); Messiah @ Albright (Fri, 10/25)
Goucher @ Cath (10/23); Moravian @ Cath (10/26)
Ran-Macon @ G'burg (10/22); G'burg @ Swat (10/26)
McDaniel @ Fords (10/23); Fords @ Dickinson (10/26)
DeSales @ Stevens (10/22); Stevens @ Del. Valley U (10/26)
Moravian @ Etown (10/23); Etown @ Goucher (10/26)
Albright @ Lycoming (10/22); Lycoming @ Alvernia (10/26)
Muhles @ McDaniel* (10/26)

* - I'll stop my heckling of the school formerly known as W.MD now.

- Lots of Tuesday games this week.
- Albright with a shot at playing the spoiler with games against Messiah and Lycoming this week.
- In the Centennial, Bullets vs. Swat is a major game for both teams. F&M and Hop have danger away games on Saturday. Dickinson v. Fords another telling match.

[YoungBuck]

Anyone watch the F&M vs Hopkins game? Stats favor F&M slightly but score obviously goes to Hopkins. 15 shots to 10 and 6 sog to 4. Curious what possession looked like and overall view of which team played better.

Messiah has been undefeated since opening weekend when missing several important players.  Not winning by a lot with many 1-0 games but a win is a win. Usually well ahead on  shots and sog but not finishing many attempts. The good news is the defense is playing strong with very good goalkeeping. I'm pretty sure the current starting 4 while healthy enough to all play together may have let in one goal at most for the year. And that was a free kick not in the run of play. Last 8 games are a clean sheet with exception of  a last second goal in a 5-1 win with the entire bench playing. They are still subbing generously,  including the defense, so that second defensive unit is holding up as well. As Tufts has shown in recent years a good defense can win you a championship even if not scoring tons of goals.

I watched the last ~60 mins on Saturday.  Hopkins (predictably) had most of the ball throughout the game.  F&M was alternating between pressing high and sitting in their own half, probably to try to throw off Hop's CBs as they were building out of the back.  F&M probably had 5-6 chances gifted to them by winning the ball back off a Hopkins mistake in the final 1/3.  That, combined with a home field statistician, inflated the shot count in their favor.  Hopkins goal was a thing of beauty, involving 4 or 5 of their subs working 1-touch combos from the midfield and finished with a clever chip over the goalie.   

Even when F&M would win the ball back in their attacking 1/3, I didn't think anyone looked that likely to score.  Kopacz had a couple chances playing up top in the first half, but then played CB for the second half, and I thought they missed him up top.  Wagner has definitely played against Hopkins enough over the past few years to have developed a strategy to defeat their style of play, and that seemed evident on Saturday.  His team definitely had plenty of chances, but just couldn't put them away.   

Hopkins lineup was changed from earlier games this season.  No Creedon (red card last game) or Younker (injury again?).  Martinez also came off the bench and scored, maybe also dealing with an injury.  In the end, I think it was Hopkins advantage in the midfield (Moore, Maclean, Wei, Martin, Moylan) that won them the game. 

Overall, I was impressed with both teams.  I think F&M's work ethic and size will allow them to compete with anyone come tournament time.  Hopkins showed that they can run anyone off the field, but are also susceptible to giving up an easy goal off of a mistake.  If they get good match ups in the tournament, against teams they haven't played in recent years, I think they could go far. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Shooter's Power Rankings
1. F&M--12-2-0
2. Hopkins--10-2-1
3. Messiah--11-2-2
4. Catholic--13-2-1
5. Gettysburg--8-4-1 
6. Swat--9-2-3
7. Fords--7-3-3
8. Stevens--9-3-2 
9. Etown--9-4-1
T10. Lyco/Dickinson--8-6-0
HM: Scranton, Kings, Eastern, Moravian, PSU-Harrisburg, Keystone

NCAA Regional Predicitons
1. F&M
2. Hopkins
3. Messiah
4. Gettyburg
5. Fords
6. Catholic
7. Swat
8. Etown
9. Stevens
10. Lyco/Dickinson/Scranton/Muhles???

No idea on how this will shake out. Always tough to gauge for the first rankings as no RvR is involved so the prioity shifts to mainly SOS and overall win%. Second rankings and onward are easier to predict as the RvR jumps ahead of the win% weight that the first rankings focus on. I had trouble distinguishing 4th, 5th and 6th. Catholic got blanked by Gettysburg early on and will have a low SOS but great win% and some quality wins when the RvR comes into play. I just feel the SOS is going to haunt them compared to Gettysburg and Haverford. Gettysburg and Haverford tied so can't split them with that and both have similar resumes and blemishes. I give Gettysburg the slight edge this time but think when RvR comes into play Haverford will jump them. SOS should be similiar for both. Same goes for the rest of the rankings. Etown and Stevens both with better win% than Dickinson and Lycoming but SOS will be poor for both Etown and Stevens compared to Dickinson and Lyco. I think both those teams will jump come the second rankings but are near the bottom or not even in for the first rankings. I like to look to run of form as well of who is playing well now compared to earlier in the year. Muhles are just 2-4-1 in their last 7 games. Not good enough for me to jump Dickinson, Lycoming or Scranton despite having a better win% and will most likely have 0 ranked wins come week 2 as well which won't help the cause. Should be interesting to see how things shake up here on Wednesday.     

MAF Top 10 Rankings
1. F&M
2. JHU
3. Messiah
4. Catholic
5. Gettysburg
6. Fords
7. Swat
8. Dickinson
9. Etown
10. Stevens
HM: Muhles, Scranton, Lyco

NCAA Predictions
1. F&M
2. Messiah
3. Hopkins
4. Catholic
5. Fords
6. Gettysburg
7. Swat
8. Stevens
9. Etown
10. Muhles, Lyco, Dickinson or Scranton

Outside looking in: (14-17) Eastern, Kings, Stevenson, Moravian 

[Hopkins92]

Younker (injury again?).   

That's... Not good. The fact they pulled out a win with him not in the game is pretty impressive.

[paclassic89]

Massey Ratings Mid-Atlantic Top 15

1.   Hopkins (3)
2.   F&M (5)
3.   Messiah (10)
4.   Catholic (16)
5.   Haverford (19)
6.   Gettysburg (21)
7.   Swat (22)
8.   Muhlenberg (33)
9.   Etown (40)
10. Dickinson (46)
11. Lycoming (63)
12. Stevens (73)
13. Scranton (76)
14. Stevenson (83)
15. Washington College (95)

[FelixCloudy]

Last USC ranking before 1st NCAA regional ranking tomorrow. https://unitedsoccercoaches.org/rankings/college-rankings/ncaa-diii-men-mid-atlantic/

Rank           School       Prev     W-L-T
1   Johns Hopkins            3       10-2-1
2   Franklin & Marshall      1      12-2-0
3   Messiah College           4      11-2-2
4   Catholic University       2      13-2-1
5   Haverford College        5       7-3-3
6   Swarthmore College     6       9-2-3
7   Gettysburg College       8      8-4-1
8   Stevens                       9       8-3-2
9   Muhlenberg College      10      8-4-2
10   Scranton                    NR     8-4-2

[YoungBuck]

(Meaningless) Stat of the Day

Dickinson's Kevin Gilbert picked up his 8th goal of the year in Saturday's 2-1 win over WAC, putting him 1 behind Haverford's Nick Jannelli for the conference lead.  Dickinson is 6-0-0 when Gilbert has scored this year, and is 20-1-3 when he has scored in his career (34 goals).  It certainly seems like Dickinson's fate is tied to the success of its First Team All-CC striker.  With games still to play against Getty, Fords, and Hopkins, Dickinson certainly has a chance to bolster it's resume before the tournament, and should be one to watch in the regional rankings in the coming weeks.

Gilbert scored his 9th of the season in a 4-2 loss to Gettysburg over the weekend.  Only the second time Dickinson has come up short when he's scored in his career.  Is the Stat of the Day cursed?

[FelixCloudy]

I think things started to spiral downward when Gilbert was sent off at 35:29 along with a YC for the team.  Not sure of the Stat of the Day cursed him..but the ensuing 4 more YC's for the Devils didn't help.  Despite that, they scored in the second half.   CC is still very fluid, and anything could happen in the remaining games and the tournament.

[Hopkins92]

Neumann 1:2 Hop
Messiah 4:2 Hood
Rand-Mac 3:4 G'burg (2OT)
Desales 1:2 Stevens
Albright 0:2 Lycoming

Games Today
Goucher @ Catholic
McDaniel @ Fords
Moravian @ Etown