Mid-Atlantic Region

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MAF 1st Regional Ranking Predictions

Region 4
1. Stevens
2. Montclair
3. NYU
4. Misericordia
5. Lycoming
6. Stockton
7. Lancaster Bible

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. Hopkins
3. F&M
4. Catholic
5. Gettysburg
6. Drew
7. Elizabethtown or Alvernia (leaning Etown)

[paclassic89]

I agree with this for the most part.  I still think that Rowan might slip in there despite their record.  They have a strong SOS.  Lancaster Bible's is not so great.  Rutgers-Newark has a chance at the 7 spot as well.  For Region IV I think the top 5 is more or less set in stone.  And then the last two spots will be 2 of Rowan, Lancaster Bible, Stockton, and Rutgers-Newark.

Region V I would lean Etown rather than Alvernia because of SOS.  Gettysburg is much closer to the bubble than they are to the top 5 in my opinion but they might get the Centennial bonus that we seem to see from these rankings. Swarthmore is hanging around as well and might be able to crack subsequent rankings if they go on a win streak.  Drew still getting no respect despite a solid record and a solid SOS lol

[Hopkins92]

Darn, had a post gobbled up by a connection error:

I agree with you on Drew, but I wonder if there is still a lingering stink on them from the 4-0 loss at home to Catholic. That was ugly, and they are currently sitting in 6th(!!) in the Landmark... but still... Got me thinking about something I've never actually done.

Thought experiment time... Let's rank the conferences!

Region IV:
NJAC
MAC-F
UEC
CUNYAC
(UAA - only NYU)

Region V:
Centennial
MAC-C
Landmark
CSAC
AEC

Full disclosure: I know very little about the CUNYAC, as well as the Colonial States and Atlantic East teams. Just glancing at the AEC, Gwynedd-Mercy is 1-14-1 and has given up 64 goals... Wow. And that gets you down a weird rabbit hole. Their lone win came against PSU-Mont Alto... 6-1!! That PSU variation has now won 4 games against 9 losses and 2 draws; one of those losses was 14-0 against PSU-Brandywine, another was a 9-1 loss against Berkely-NJ...

There's a whole world out there, right under our noses. Those are some insane score lines you just don't see very much in either region. At least not in the top 2 or 3 conferences in each region. You just can't afford those types of jalopies in your SoS.

[Hopkins92]

Hopkins,

The UAA is not in conference this weekend, so four teams have out of conference matchups on Saturday.

Alvernia at Rochester
Roanoke at Emory
Wilkes at New York univ.
St Joseph's, Maine at Brandeis

Sorry, wasn't ignoring this, but...  I find it a little difficult to bake in the entire UAA into the Mid-Atlantic discussion when only one team is actually regionally ranked at the end of the day.

With that said, I continue to follow the Violets who remain one of the few teams to give Messiah a real run for their money. With that said, at 6-4-2, they will need a pretty incredible finish to make a case for an NCAA bid.

[Hopkins92]

Darn, had a post gobbled up by a connection error:

I agree with you on Drew, but I wonder if there is still a lingering stink on them from the 4-0 loss at home to Catholic. That was ugly, and they are currently sitting in 6th(!!) in the Landmark... but still... Got me thinking about something I've never actually done.

Thought experiment time... Let's rank the conferences!

Region IV:
NJAC
MAC-F
UEC
CUNYAC
(UAA - only NYU)

Region V:
Centennial
MAC-C
Landmark
CSAC
AEC

Full disclosure: I know very little about the CUNYAC, as well as the Colonial States and Atlantic East teams. Just glancing at the AEC, Gwynedd-Mercy is 1-14-1 and has given up 64 goals... Wow. And that gets you down a weird rabbit hole. Their lone win came against PSU-Mont Alto... 6-1!! That PSU variation has now won 4 games against 9 losses and 2 draws; one of those losses was 14-0 against PSU-Brandywine, another was a 9-1 loss against Berkely-NJ...

There's a whole world out there, right under our noses. Those are some insane score lines you just don't see very much in either region. At least not in the top 2 or 3 conferences in each region. You just can't afford those types of jalopies in your SoS.

Just a couple of additional thoughts:

1) While there are no formal rules, my working assumption is that the folks doing the rankings have somewhat of a set number of bids that go to each conference beyond the AQ.

2) I didn't take the time to cross-reference this with Massey. Might be an interesting additional bit of "data." Though, again, we all know Massey and the final regional rankings don't always line-up. See point #1, and... other stuff.

[camosfan]

Darn, had a post gobbled up by a connection error:

I agree with you on Drew, but I wonder if there is still a lingering stink on them from the 4-0 loss at home to Catholic. That was ugly, and they are currently sitting in 6th(!!) in the Landmark... but still... Got me thinking about something I've never actually done.

Thought experiment time... Let's rank the conferences!

Region IV:
NJAC
MAC-F
UEC
CUNYAC
(UAA - only NYU)

Region V:
Centennial
MAC-C
Landmark
CSAC
AEC

Full disclosure: I know very little about the CUNYAC, as well as the Colonial States and Atlantic East teams. Just glancing at the AEC, Gwynedd-Mercy is 1-14-1 and has given up 64 goals... Wow. And that gets you down a weird rabbit hole. Their lone win came against PSU-Mont Alto... 6-1!! That PSU variation has now won 4 games against 9 losses and 2 draws; one of those losses was 14-0 against PSU-Brandywine, another was a 9-1 loss against Berkely-NJ...

There's a whole world out there, right under our noses. Those are some insane score lines you just don't see very much in either region. At least not in the top 2 or 3 conferences in each region. You just can't afford those types of jalopies in your SoS.

They are the NYC schools, I think mostly commuter schools,large immigrant population, they are surrounded by some very strong youth clubs but just do not attract top players. Last year you guys beat the conference champ 5-0 in NCAA first round.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I agree with this for the most part.  I still think that Rowan might slip in there despite their record.  They have a strong SOS.  Lancaster Bible's is not so great.  Rutgers-Newark has a chance at the 7 spot as well.  For Region IV I think the top 5 is more or less set in stone.  And then the last two spots will be 2 of Rowan, Lancaster Bible, Stockton, and Rutgers-Newark.

Region V I would lean Etown rather than Alvernia because of SOS.  Gettysburg is much closer to the bubble than they are to the top 5 in my opinion but they might get the Centennial bonus that we seem to see from these rankings. Swarthmore is hanging around as well and might be able to crack subsequent rankings if they go on a win streak.  Drew still getting no respect despite a solid record and a solid SOS lol

Tough to tell. First rankings aren't in any order so we won't truly know who is where. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rowan or Newark in over Lancaster Bible or Stockton based on SOS. Looking at a combined win %, SOS and results vs solid teams I felt LBC would sneak in over Rowan or Newark. If either of those teams sneak in I would assume they are in the 7th and final spot. It's a similar scenario with Stockton as Newark has the H2H result and most likely a higher SOS but worst record, win%, blemishes , etc. I would not be surprised at all to see Stockton left out of the top 7.

Gettysburg and Drew could be in any order. Overall resume probably favors Drew as I believe they will have the better SOS and better win % but the recent run of form (which technically isn't a factor) has me slotting them just behind the Bullets. I am leaning Etown over Alvernia strictly based on predicted SOS being much higher. I don't think you will see Swarthmore jump Etown or Alvernia.   

[paclassic89]

I actually have information on the average RPI for each conference

Region IV

NJAC  .5393
MAC-F .5275
UEC .4434
CUNYAC .3904

Region V

Centennial .5603
MAC-C .5344
Landmark .5486
CSAC  .4220
AEC .4381

By average RPI, Region V is the second best region in the country. Region IV is the worst.   

[Hopkins92]

I thought the Landmark and MAC-C were close!

Thanks PA... And while I'm in full procrastination mode:

Massey ranking/SOS for the schools we're discussing

MAC-C
Alvernia      57/133
Lycoming    101/77
Widener      103/104

Landmark
Catholic      36/51
Drew          40/120(!)
Etown         70/102

Centennial
Gettysburg  37/22(!)
Muhles        73/57
Swat           93/38
McDaniel     111/145

[Christan Shirk]

Just a couple of additional thoughts:

1) While there are no formal rules, my working assumption is that the folks doing the rankings have somewhat of a set number of bids that go to each conference beyond the AQ.

2) I didn't take the time to cross-reference this with Massey. Might be an interesting additional bit of "data." Though, again, we all know Massey and the final regional rankings don't always line-up. See point #1, and... other stuff.

I'm not sure exactly what you are referring to when you say there are no formal rules, but the NCAA committees that do the rankings and at-large selections have very clear and explicit rules to follow. There are specific primary and secondary selection criteria for the committees to use (see below). And over the past decade of following the regional rankings and at-large berth selections, we at D3soccer.com believe that, for better or worse, the committees do adhere to the criteria very closely. The only suspicion of "fudging" on the criteria relates to the selection of west region (now Region X) teams to round-out a 1st/2nd Round pod without having to fly an east coast team out west (ohh, and Rochester getting in every year!!!).

While the Division III Soccer Pre-Championship Manual clearly states that there is no maximum or minimum number of berths per region, there is no direct statement to this affect regarding conferences. However, there is nothing in the criteria that takes into account the number of teams from the same conference already ranked or selected. And we have seen no evidence to suggest there is an unwritten/unspoken cap on the number of teams selected from a conference.  The NESCAC and UAA have gotten as many as five teams (1 AQ + 4 at-large).  In 2018, the MIAC got three at-large berths in addition to their AQ which might be the strongest evidence that there is no set number of berths per conference.

Likewise, there is no evidence to suggest that conference standings or conference tournament finish factors in, which they shouldn't as they are not among the criteria the committees are tasked to apply.  In fact, there was a instance of a team receiving at at-large berth who missed their conference tournament: In 2015, RPI finished 7th in the Liberty League at 3-3-2, but was 12-5-3 overall and nabbed an at-large berth (they may actually have been helped by missing the tournament as it prevented them from picking up a sixth loss).

What I am saying is that, while we can debate what the criteria should be or how the committee applies the criteria, the evidence on the whole very much supports that idea the the committees do adhere to the criteria given in the Manual and do not target a certain number of berths per conference.


excerpt from the Division III Soccer Pre-Championship Manual

Section 2.4  Selection Criteria

PRIMARY CRITERIA
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed
will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
- Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
- Division III head-to-head competition;
- Results versus common Division III opponents;
- Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the final ranking and the ranking preceding the
final ranking. Conference postseason contests are included; and
- Division III strength of schedule;
     - Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP);
     - Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).

See Appendix D for an explanation of the OWP and OOWP calculation.

Note: Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary
criteria. Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selections.

SECONDARY CRITERIA
If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the
criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against all other
opponents, including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA
Divisions I and II).
- Non-Division III won-lost percentage;
- Results versus common non-Division III opponents;
- Division III non-conference strength of schedule.

Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's won-lost percentage during the last 25% of the season is applicable
(i.e., end of season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval from the championships committee.

Additionally, input is provided by regional advisory committees for consideration by the soccer committee. In order to
be considered for selection for Pools B or C, an institution must play at least 70% of its competition against Division III
in-region opponents. Coaches' polls and/or any other outside polls or rankings are not used as a criterion by the soccer
committee for selection purposes.

[Shooter McGavin]

MAF 1st Regional Ranking Predictions

Region 4
1. Stevens
2. Montclair
3. NYU
4. Misericordia
5. Lycoming
6. Stockton
7. Lancaster Bible

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. Hopkins
3. F&M
4. Catholic
5. Gettysburg
6. Drew
7. Elizabethtown or Alvernia (leaning Etown)

I think it's a solid guess but I would switch a few things up...

Region 4
1. Stevens
2. Montclair
3. NYU
4. Misericordia
5. Lycoming
6. Rowan
7. Newark

Notes: Lyco would be ahead of Misericordia if not for the H2H loss. Rowan and Newark will both sneak in due to high SOS despite blemishes and sub-par win %. Rowan could even jump Lyco due to H2H.

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. Hopkins
3. F&M
4. Catholic
5. Drew
6. Elizabethtown
7. Gettysburg

Notes: Drew would be ahead of Catholic if not for the H2H loss. F&M would be higher than Hopkins if Hopkins had a loss as they will have much stronger SOS.

[Hopkins92]

Lots of great info redacted...

Thanks Christian, and duly noted, of course.

[Hopkins92]

Shooter... Just looking at the Massey data and their SoS rankings, I don't really think you can make a case that F&M has a stronger SoS than Hop. Unless I'm missing something.

Same thing with Drew vs. Catholic.

And I'm not trying to be snarky, but saying "if you take away X result" is kind of disqualifying in terms of analyzing or ranking these teams. Again, unless I'm misunderstanding your thinking. H2H is a pretty big indicator of how teams stack up and losing 4-0 AT HOME sure says something, at least to my eyes.

[Hopkins92]

Keeping along those lines, you may be onto something with Rowan. Even though they are 6-5-2 they are 69th in Massey with a #21 ranking SoS.

Stockton = 61/105
RU-N =  121/61

[camosfan]

Should we dismiss Rowan losing 0-6 to New Jersey City?