Mid-Atlantic Region

[Hopkins92]

Watching the Jays - Goose game on second tv (happy wife!)... Absolutely feel like WC is going to score here. They have been pretty threatening in the first half.

Like the fact that Hop is taking the press out by lumping it up from time to time. WC's press is very effective.

Should be an interesting 2nd half.

[Hopkins92]

2-0 Final.

Pretty big win for the Jays.

[Hopkins Walk-On]

Hopkins with a well-played 2-0 win. Washington College dominated possession in the first half and had a couple of decent chances, including a shot off the crossbar, but Hopkins took advantage of their chances better. After a tense 8 or 9 minutes to begin the second half, Hopkins dominated the rest of the game. The Hopkins D looked much better than in the F&M game. They wisely chose to hoof it up to the forwards if things got desperate. WC also seems to run out of steam. Having now seen both F&M and WC play, I would pick F&M in a head-to-head match-up, which is coming up soon. F&M is a little more frenetic and I didn't see anyone on WC that could match Horowitz or Kaleiba from F&M.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Very, very nice game by Hop!  Both goals were nice while definitely taking the steam out of WC. WC maybe had an off game, but don't think so. Hop played their game well from the beginning till the end. First loss by WC so now 9-1-5.

The announcer for WC was fine, but the static was killing me. Sound like he was talking into a tin can or maybe because the broadcast had to go under the Chesapeake to get to me. Not the first time it sounded like crap. Also not sure if there was anyone there. Usually more fun if you can hear the crowd a little.

Swarthmore's keeper had an amazing day with at least 3 very good saves. Muhlenberg couldn't get it done, 0-0.

With F&M's 2-0 win, F&M takes the Cent. Conf. lead for the first time by a point with 17, WC 16, Muhls 14 and Hop with 13.  Only 4 pts separating the top four.  All 4 have two more Cent. Conf. Games.  As they say, anything can happen!!  WC definitely looks like it has the toughest road with Muhls on Sat. and F&M the following Sat. Hop has Haverford at home and Dickinson away. I mentioned the away game because they'll have to play on grass field that is slowwww and may affect how they play. Muhls have WC and McDaniel and will be on a mission in my opinion. F&M has Gettysburg (can't figure out what happened with them. Having a very tough year) and then at the end WC. All sorts of scenarios that may come down to the final weekend much like two years ago where F&M had to beat Hop to get into the top 5 to qualify for the conf. tournament. Question is, like always, who is peaking or can continue to grind it out. Fun times.

May not seem much, but, with, 6 teams making the tournament now, top two seeds get byes and top seed gets home field in every game. Did not help F&M last year as it won the conference reg. season but lost to the Muhls 2-0 in the semis and Muhls went to on to win it all.   

[paclassic89]

Widener tied Stevenson today.   They needed to be perfect down the stretch to have a shot at an at large.  I wouldn't be surprised if they drop out of the regional rankings and one of Lyco/Alvernia/Scranton replaces them in a week or two

[Freddyfud]

Watching the WC Hop game live was great for many reasons. I would agree with a lot of the comments above, especially the ones about Hopkins adapting and playing long.  I specifically heard the GK and backline talking through some of the problems they encountered during the first half.  One way to avoid an Achilles heal is to bypass it altogether.  Perhaps this was a lesson learned in the F&M game.  If so hats off to the Hopkins staff.

Sounds like the livestream audio was not good.  I took some videos of the game including the 2 goals.  When I get a chance I will try to publish them. 

Really good game.

[Hopkins92]

I will say, after starting off a little slow, Hop has found a goal scorer in Griffin Meyer who now has 12 Gs and 2 As on the year. Meyer is a Grad Student transfer who played at Denver last year, scoring 4 Gs and 4 As in the Summit League.

It was pointed out to me offline (sorta) that this team has a decent amount of grad student transfers and it sure looks like they are starting to click.

I will also say, I noticed that guys were staying out longer than the "typical" rotation Coach A had been using. I don't have time to go back and do a deep dive, but they only used 5 subs last night, as opposed to the prior game against F&M where they used 8 subs.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Definitely as to Hop and Meyer.  Hop has 27 goals over all so he has a good chunk. He had a hattrick against F&M which probably has not happened in many many years or at least not in the last 10 years or so. However and in the same game, I doubt Hop had ever given up 4 goals by the same guy much less 4 assists by another player. Hahaha. Still stunned about that one game. So Meyer is not getting goals against easy teams.

As to the Cent. Conf., one thing I've noticed is that I think offense is definitely up this year.  I believe that many teams to include Hopkins are scoring more goals this year then in the past.  Until this year, F&M had relied heavily on defense and eaking out 1-0 games many times (6 times of its 14 wins were 1-0 in 2021, 5 1-0 in 2021 which they won 13 games).  F&M scored 29 goals over 20 games last year and in 2023 over 15 games they have scored 40 (only one game could be classified as padding 5-0 against Rosemont).  Went from 1.45 goals per game to 2.67 this year.  Over all, I would say the Cent. Conf. seems more exciting offensively and which is great, but with F&M's top scorer who is senior and Meyer a grad student this may not be trend.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Widener tied Stevenson today.   They needed to be perfect down the stretch to have a shot at an at large.  I wouldn't be surprised if they drop out of the regional rankings and one of Lyco/Alvernia/Scranton replaces them in a week or two

I agree with your assessment. They have a subpar SOS that will most likely drop with their upcoming schedule. The tie certainly hurts them as Stevenson is struggling this season and looks to be under .500 even if they win out.

I think the big surprise was Catholic making the top 7. We don't know where they were ranked but would more than likely be that 7th spot. With RvR factoring in and results between now and then, I would agree that Widener could drop out and Lycoming or Scranton (or both) could jump in. Catholic has a high SOS but their record and RvR hurts them compared to others. 

Lots of matches left and I think this region will continue to shift until the last day.

Region 4 was pretty standard and no surprises in my opinion.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Widener tied Stevenson today.   They needed to be perfect down the stretch to have a shot at an at large.  I wouldn't be surprised if they drop out of the regional rankings and one of Lyco/Alvernia/Scranton replaces them in a week or two

I agree with your assessment. They have a subpar SOS that will most likely drop with their upcoming schedule. The tie certainly hurts them as Stevenson is struggling this season and looks to be under .500 even if they win out.

I think the big surprise was Catholic making the top 7. We don't know where they were ranked but would more than likely be that 7th spot. With RvR factoring in and results between now and then, I would agree that Widener could drop out and Lycoming or Scranton (or both) could jump in. Catholic has a high SOS but their record and RvR hurts them compared to others. 

Lots of matches left and I think this region will continue to shift until the last day.

Region 4 was pretty standard and no surprises in my opinion.

To regional ranking experts which I have a little context, but have not the expertise.

Do conference tournament results or lack of results impact teams' regional rankings?  Or the conf. tourn. not considered?

For instance, a 6th seed conf. tournament team goes on a tear and makes it to the finals but loses and also they were not in the top 7 regionally prior to the start of the tournament, could they maybe get an at-large bid?  Sorry, a hypothetical I know, but have there been examples of this before?  Non top 7 regional team crushing it in conf. tourn but not winning getting an at-large bid?

[College Soccer Observer]

Widener tied Stevenson today.   They needed to be perfect down the stretch to have a shot at an at large.  I wouldn't be surprised if they drop out of the regional rankings and one of Lyco/Alvernia/Scranton replaces them in a week or two

I agree with your assessment. They have a subpar SOS that will most likely drop with their upcoming schedule. The tie certainly hurts them as Stevenson is struggling this season and looks to be under .500 even if they win out.

I think the big surprise was Catholic making the top 7. We don't know where they were ranked but would more than likely be that 7th spot. With RvR factoring in and results between now and then, I would agree that Widener could drop out and Lycoming or Scranton (or both) could jump in. Catholic has a high SOS but their record and RvR hurts them compared to others. 

Lots of matches left and I think this region will continue to shift until the last day.

Region 4 was pretty standard and no surprises in my opinion.

To regional ranking experts which I have a little context, but have not the expertise.

Do conference tournament results or lack of results impact teams' regional rankings?  Or the conf. tourn. not considered?

For instance, a 6th seed conf. tournament team goes on a tear and makes it to the finals but loses and also they were not in the top 7 regionally prior to the start of the tournament, could they maybe get an at-large bid?  Sorry, a hypothetical I know, but have there been examples of this before?  Non top 7 regional team crushing it in conf. tourn but not winning getting an at-large bid?

The final rankings do take into account conference tournament results, but those rankings are not released until after the selections for the tournament are posted. 

[Flying Weasel]

Yes, conference tournament results are considered.  Per the selection criteria, they are not given more weight for being conference tournament games. From the NCAA's viewpoint, they are just additional regular season contests. And there is no penalty for missing your conference tournament (IIRC, RPI was selected one year despite not making the Liberty League playoffs).  Beyond the chance of winning an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament, making your conference tournament can also have the benefit of providing a chance to increase your SOS and pick up some wins against regional ranked teams.  Of course, the opposite can happen as well.  Depending on your conference and/or who you get paired with, it can lower your SOS.  And unless you win the conference tournament and AQ (in which case selection criteria is irrelevant), you will probably be lowering your winning pct. and might pick up a loss (or tie) to a ranked team. So unless you go on and win your conference tournament, your at-large resume is probably worse for having participated in the conference tournament, but the same will be true for most other teams needing an at-large berth.

Whether the scenario you laid out could actually happen, it's theoretically possible even if the odds are rather low.  With the more at-large berths this year, the possibility does increase.  It would require the region to be considered strong and deep and for the previously ranked teams, at least the ones in the bottom half of the rankings, to be closely clustered with little separation from the previously unranked teams (including the team of interest) that just missed the previous ranking.  And the team would need to defeat one or more regionally ranked teams in their conference tournament run.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Thanks!

[PaulNewman]

FW of course is correct about RPI making the tournament one after not making the LL playoffs. 

Same thing with OWU in 2016.  Finished 5th in the conference (only top 4 make NCAC tourney) and still got a bid.

This is partly why you also can't count out teams that have an overall record that on first blush might seem disqualifying.  With a high SoS and 3 or more regionally ranked wins teams can get bids with records like 9-5-2, 8-5-4, 7-4-5, 9-6-1, etc.  Rochester, Tufts, and others have gotten bids with those kinds of records.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Thanks!  So don't have to make the tournament to make NCAAs and possibly be the lowest seed get in conf tourney, make to to the finals, and possibly get an at large bid.