Mid-Atlantic Region

[SierraFD3soccer]

Guess I answered my own question - JHU pretty much hung it up offensively the 2nd half, but a win is a win is a win. PK was deserved. Don't know what the keeper was thinking. Second game in a row Swat had chances, but couldn't put it together.

Cent. Conf. only one minor surprise. Gettysburg was able to grind out a tie with the Muhls.

F&M went down a goal (looked like an own goal) early to McDaniel, but tied quickly and scored 2 in the second half. Koa Kaliebe with two of those. Horwitz still not playing. Pretty dominate most of the game.

F&M leads CC 4-0 (6-0-5 overall) and JHU second with 10 pts and Muhls with 8 pts. Could end up being a two team race, but only half way.

[Hopkins92]

To be fair, I don't think Hopkins shut things down, I think Swat came out and took the game to them.

Gemstones press in the second half was just night and day from the first half.

[jfreddys]

To be fair, I don't think Hopkins shut things down, I think Swat came out and took the game to them.

Gemstones press in the second half was just night and day from the first half.

Would have to agree.   Game of two halves.   Looked like JHU caught Swat off guard with some great play in the first half and as SC often says (at least I think he says this) a 2-0 lead is dangerous...for the team that is ahead. 

And Swat has been building this really great play and style the last couple of years.   Their skill is/was clearly there and they were very dangerous that second half...in the same way they were caught off guard first half, JHU seemed caught off guard second half.   

Just two very skilled teams...fun to watch.

[Falconer]

Saturday evening was the first Falcon home game in two weeks. I saw the stream at UMW and most of the stream at Rowan, but none of it at Lycoming since I won't pay to watch Landmark games. Here's my assessment of where they are more than halfway through what is undeniably, and quite unexpectedly, a true rebuilding season. The Falcons don't have those very often, as everyone knows.

First, against a very ordinary Eastern side they were dominant, despite the parity in team statistics. Officiating was a factor in Eastern's favor. (I know I like to play that card, and to many it may sound like an excuse. But, I call them as I see them, and unfortunately that's often what I see.) Many very knowledgeable Falcon fans (not the student body, which was out in large numbers for Homecoming), including parents of players and others who've been watching the Falcons for two or three decades, were dumbfounded by several of the calls. Unlike my usual complaint, the problem wasn't neglecting obvious fouls by opponents, often intentional, that are designed to slow down the Falcons' signature possession-style game. Rather, the problem was inventing fouls that didn't happen, or else calling fouls the wrong way. The Falcons don't usually collect more fouls than their opponents, but yesterday they did by a larger margin (15 to 9), whereas (IM biased opinion) the fouls were even and should have been called that way. In other words, the Falcons really dominated possession more than they are credited for. In one especially glaring instance when an Eagle nearly pulled down a Falcon but the Falcon escaped an initiated a dangerous attack, the foul was called—however, the Falcons should have been given the advantage as the situation developed. Instead, the play was called back upfield for a free kick and Eastern may have dodged a bullet. More importantly, there was a huge non-call on a very obvious Eastern hand-ball in the box that turned back a shot on goal. Everyone saw it, apparently, except the officials. So, this one was probably 4-0.

On the other hand, Eastern hit the crossbar on a direct kick late in the game, and then GK Adam Carter stood on his head to save the rebound. So, maybe 4-1. Eastern had other excellent chances, but the Falcons turned them all away, including some scrums that nearly always in earlier games resulted in goals (like both Dickinson goals).

In short, despite poor officiating, the Falcons just had better luck last night. They converted their best chances and denied their opponent's best chances. OK, there's more to it than just luck, but everyone knows that luck can be a bigger factor in soccer than in most other team sports. Last evening, the Falcons really did outplay their opponent all night long, but this time they weren't skunked so the scoreboard reflects how well they did.

None of that changes the fact that this year's team is not as good as nearly all others since the Falcon ascendency in the late 1990s. They aren't. They will need to win the AQ to get a bid, and with a greatly improved York squad and a couple other good teams in the conference that will be a challenge this year. However, over the past several games there are subtle signs of improvement, suggesting that the AQ could still be in their grasp.

It's no secret that there have been four keys to their success this century. (1) Top play on the back line, in some seasons among the 4 or 5 best in D3, often with an AA CB in that mix. (2) Excellent team speed that only helps their possession game. (3) Precision passing all the way down the field, sometimes to the point of overkill in and around the box, such that a very good look is often ignored. (4) Great depth and overall conditioning. This last factor is the one that Brandt used to such advantage, forcing opponents to leave their starters on the field because their benches just couldn't match the Falcons when Brandt sent in the subs.
Saturday evening I often saw (3), except when bad calls turned the ball over. (2) Is not characteristic of this year's team, despite the fact that SO Sam Phillips (who was injured in practice the day before and DNP) might be the single fastest Falcon this century (in terms of HS sprint times). I've said before that Matt McDonald was the fastest striker in decades, but others now graduated also had a lot of speed. They are still faster than many teams, but not quite at the level of recent teams. That won't change, obviously, until maybe next season. I have yet to see evidence of (4). There are certainly fewer regional HS AAs on this squad than Falcon fans are accustomed to seeing, and maybe fewer All-state players as well. To be sure, there are still several excellent HS players who are playing at a good D3 level at this point in the season, but the bench isn't as stacked as it normally is. Perhaps this is a lingering effect of COVID, with many talented players the past two seasons playing past the pre-COVID norm of 4 years, such that some really good younger players never started and got that experience. Time will tell, especially next year.
 
What about (1)? This has to my eyes been the biggest issue so far this year, right out of the gate. Last year the Falcons had two AA CBs, one of them (Jake Kent-Loop) among the very best ever in Grantham, and a FR backup who is very athletic and a quick study. Kent-Loop graduated to the Pittsburgh Riverhounds, the FR transferred to a MD community college, and the only returning CB with a lot of PT, 5Y Ben Vollmer (2nd team AA in 2023), went down with a career-ending injury in the first 25 minutes of the season. That left an enormous experiential hole that the Falcons are still trying to plug. I saw definite improvement vs Eastern. One factor is that McCarty moved the Falcons' best handler, Jarec Marlotte, all the way back to CB. Unless he played there vs Lycoming (the game I didn't see), it was his first time in that position and he played it awfully well. In a related move, speedster JR Davis Pagett, one of the best players left this year, played outside back opposite equally fast 5Y Caleb Aldridge. IMO, Aldridge was the single best player on the field vs UMW, repeatedly stopping them cold and often stealing the ball from attackers. I think he merited consideration for all-conference each of the past two seasons, but on such stacked teams it's hard to get that honor when half a dozen teammates already have it. He and Marlotte are the most experienced Falcon defenders, and with both of them now on the back line with Pagett, the Falcons might have solved this problem as well as possible this season. I hope they continue to play as a unit throughout the conference season. If they can run the table with them, they might have enough experience together to make a decent showing in the tournament.

I should also give a shout-out to FR Grant Shreiner, who's now started all but once in the MF. Although he was All-state in PA last year, he went to a small Christian school, so I wasn't sure how good he would be. I hadn't realized that two brothers starred for Lancaster Bible College. Anyway, Grant is already an excellent D3 player, who surprises me with his all-around ability. He's not a scorer, but he shoots with authority when open outside the box—he had a rocket blocked vs Eastern—and is a top notch handler with quickness and great field vision. Even on a somewhat depleted team, it's uncommon for a FR to start all season. Those who do often end their careers as AAs. Is Grant in that category? It's too early to say, but it's not too early to say that he's a real find.

Falcon fans, hold on to your butts. The next four weeks will make or break their chances.

[SimpleCoach]

It's no secret that there have been four keys to their success this century. (1) Top play on the back line, in some seasons among the 4 or 5 best in D3, often with an AA CB in that mix. (2) Excellent team speed that only helps their possession game. (3) Precision passing all the way down the field, sometimes to the point of overkill in and around the box, such that a very good look is often ignored. (4) Great depth and overall conditioning.

@Falconer - Loved the analysis.  I would just add one more point to this, although I think you imply it.  Number 5 for me is that Messiah had a midfield that was able to control the tempo and point of attack throughout games.

Otherwise, think this is spot on.

SC.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MAF Power Rankings (10/7)

1. Dickinson
2. Hopkins
3. F&M
4. Montclair
5. Lycoming
6. York
7. Rowan
8. PSU-Harrisburg
9. Muhles
10. Messiah

Outside looking in: Newark, Scranton, Swarthmore

Missed posting last week with some travel for work. Enjoy!

[SierraFD3soccer]

MAF Power Rankings (10/7)

1. Dickinson
2. Hopkins
3. F&M
4. Montclair
5. Lycoming
6. York
7. Rowan
8. PSU-Harrisburg
9. Muhles
10. Messiah

I get this. I might have the Muhls higher with win over Dickinson and tie with JHU.

As a F&M fan, many will take this with a grain of salt.  I think that right now, F&M has out performed JHU. Yes, JHU got a last min goal to tie UMW, but they lost to Rowan and Kenyon who F&M tied. Yes, F&M hasn't finished in a bunch of games, but has not lost.

I also reserve my right if F&M stinks up the joint! Still a lot of great matchups for all these teams. F&M plays Dickinson this weekend.

[Ejay]

I also reserve my right if F&M stinks up the joint! Still a lot of great matchups for all these teams. F&M plays Dickinson this weekend.

*Muhlenberg, not Dickinson.  And it's a game in our weekly pool!

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Some mid-season surprises for the region:

-Messiah at .500 with a 5-5-1 record (not your typical Messiah). Look for them to finish with 11 or 12 wins going into conference playoffs

-Catholic with a slow start at 3-5-2 and 0-0-2 in Landmark play but has played a difficult schedule. Look for them to rebound down the stretch in conference play.

-Arcadia at 10-1-1 but faces some challenges in conference play and has played a weak schedule. But wins are wins! 

-York undefeated through 12 games at 8-0-4 after posting a 6-7-3 record in 2023. Look for them to battle with Messiah in conference play.

-Stevens flying under the radar sitting at 4-2-3 after a tough non-conference schedule. They will be well prepared for conference play and will be seeking an at-large if they don't get the AQ.

-Montclair has won 8 in a row allowing just 1 goal in that span. But are they as good as their record? They face Newark next.

-Dickinson at 10-1-1 already surpassing last year's record of 9-7-2. Excited to see how they close out conference play.

-Newark at 7-4-2 and a sleeper to win the NJAC. Can they run the table after their next battle with Montclair? Keep an eye on them down the stretch.

-PSU-Harrisburg at 9-3-1. Maybe not a surprise but some good results with wins over NYU, Messiah, and Lycoming. I still think they are AQ or bust but should remain in the NCAA regional rankings when released. 

[SierraFD3soccer]

F&M took care of business this evening beating the Muhls 4-2.  F&M scored 4 in first half and pretty much cruised the 2nd half. Three were very nice goals. Had several opportunities but did not finish. Some might say, uncharacteristic.

Muhls might have been off and probably their worst game this year. They have not given up more than 2 goals in game. F&M is now 7-0-6 and 5-0 in Cent. Conf.

JHU lost a tough one to Gettysburg. Biggest problem was that JHU only got two shots on goal, I think.

F&M is now 5 points clear of JHU and Dickinson with 4 conf. games to go. The JHU v. F&M game next Saturday in Bmore should be a great one as usual.

[SKUD]

Do you think this is a strong conference this year?

[paclassic89]

4th strongest in D3 according to Massey.  NESCAC and UAA are typically always the top 2, top to bottom. 

[SierraFD3soccer]

Do you think this is a strong conference this year?

This year maybe in the top 5, but its been tough. Definitely wide open to beating each other up (Gettysburg over JHU or Muhls over Dickinson).  Usually sends 3+ to the NCAAs. A couple of times 5 teams.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MAF Power Rankings (10/14)
1. Dickinson
2. F&M
3. Montclair
4. Hopkins
5. York
6. Muhles
7. PSU-Harrisburg
8. Lycoming
9. Messiah
10. Stevens

[justakidfromakron]

Hot take for rest of conference play: Dips win out