2017 South Atlantic

[Christan Shirk]

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 17, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Montclair State	13-1-2	0.560	--	13-1-2	--
2.	Mary Washington	9-1-3	0.578	--	9-1-3	--
3.	Rutgers-Camden	11-3-2	0.584	--	11-3-2	--
4.	Rowan	10-4-0	0.606	--	10-4-0	--
5.	Emory	8-4-1	0.619	--	8-4-1	--
6.	Salisbury	9-2-2	0.558	--	9-2-2	--
7.	York (Pa.)	9-3-2	0.567	--	9-3-2	--
8.	Washington and Lee	7-3-1	0.577	--	7-3-1	--

[lastguyoffthebench]

Rutgers-Camden falls to Rowan in OT on an OG.  Plays WPU on Sat.

Oglethorpe hands Emory it's first out-of-conference loss.   This should be fairly high within the rankings now as they are 2-1 RvR (wins over Emory and WashU) and SOS will jump.

Emory still has a nightmare schedule left; CMU, CWRU, @ Rochester.

York falls to St. Mary's MD.  Still has Salisbury on the schedule.

W&L has a big game vs Noke 10/20.

St. Mary's MD has a low SOS, but now with key wins over York and Salisbury.  Should move into rankings

Lynchburg 1-0-2 RvR


Projected movers
Up:  Lynchburg, Oglethorpe, Rowan, St. Mary's
Down:  Camden, Emory, York

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Rutgers-Camden falls to Rowan in OT on an OG.  Plays WPU on Sat.

Oglethorpe hands Emory it's first out-of-conference loss.   This should be fairly high within the rankings now as they are 2-1 RvR (wins over Emory and WashU) and SOS will jump.

Emory still has a nightmare schedule left; CMU, CWRU, @ Rochester.

York falls to St. Mary's MD.  Still has Salisbury on the schedule.

W&L has a big game vs Noke 10/20.

St. Mary's MD has a low SOS, but now with key wins over York and Salisbury.  Should move into rankings

Lynchburg 1-0-2 RvR


Projected movers
Up:  Lynchburg, Oglethorpe, Rowan, St. Mary's
Down:  Camden, Emory, York

Wow that is brutal for Emory! 

[PaulNewman]

Took me a few years to really understand the impact of SoS on rankings and bids, and as noted on Lycoming in another thread, you simply cannot count on what looks to be a solid schedule beforehand.  I have a lot of respect for the high S0S's of the UAA teams and others, but that said, there has to be a point where losing matters.  If Emory runs the table from here, then OK, but otherwise, I would hate to see a team like Emory that is 0-5-1 (or is it 0-6-1?) get a bid over a Lynchburg, Lycoming or St. Joe's.  I think Lynchburg will end up being fine, but still....

[blooter442]

Took me a few years to really understand the impact of SoS on rankings and bids, and as noted on Lycoming in another thread, you simply cannot count on what looks to be a solid schedule beforehand.  I have a lot of respect for the high S0S's of the UAA teams and others, but that said, there has to be a point where losing matters.  If Emory runs the table from here, then OK, but otherwise, I would hate to see a team like Emory that is 0-5-1 (or is it 0-6-1?) get a bid over a Lynchburg, Lycoming or St. Joe's.  I think Lynchburg will end up being fine, but still....

Agreed. Case has seemed to have that problem in the last few seasons — compiling a very solid SoS but not getting the results. 2015 if I remember correctly they were in the UAA hunt going into the penultimate weekend, then lost two straight on the road which probably also did them in for an NCAA bid. This year I think they are in great shape to make their first tournament since 2011, but their struggles in the past few years have evidenced that you have to win those games in order to make the SoS count for something.

[PaulNewman]

Took me a few years to really understand the impact of SoS on rankings and bids, and as noted on Lycoming in another thread, you simply cannot count on what looks to be a solid schedule beforehand.  I have a lot of respect for the high S0S's of the UAA teams and others, but that said, there has to be a point where losing matters.  If Emory runs the table from here, then OK, but otherwise, I would hate to see a team like Emory that is 0-5-1 (or is it 0-6-1?) get a bid over a Lynchburg, Lycoming or St. Joe's.  I think Lynchburg will end up being fine, but still....

Agreed. Case has seemed to have that problem in the last few seasons — compiling a very solid SoS but not getting the results. 2015 if I remember correctly they were in the UAA hunt going into the penultimate weekend, then lost two straight on the road which probably also did them in for an NCAA bid. This year I think they are in great shape to make their first tournament since 2011, but their struggles in the past few years have evidenced that you have to win those games in order to make the SoS count for something.

And while saying what I said, let's say Emory beats Berry (not a given at all, esp away) and then goes 2-1 in last 3 UAAs, and they end up something like 11-6-1....that actually might get them in.  I think Case is probably in even if they lose all 3 of final UAAs, but a win or a draw in any of those I think ensures it as Great Lakes is not very deep or with many teams that will have more than a couple of ranked wins.

[lastguyoffthebench]

I could be wrong, but I think 7-8 blemishes is the near the cut-off.   A few teams have gotten in with 9

I think they could get in if they finish 10-7-1.     

18 games on the schedule with 11 RvR likely.   
Wins within the region over Rowan, Rutgers-Camden and W&L should help their case.
SOS currently .619 and should be upwards of .650 by season end.
 

[PaulNewman]

I could be wrong, but I think 7-8 blemishes is the near the cut-off.   A few teams have gotten in with 9

I think they could get in if they finish 10-7-1.     

18 games on the schedule with 11 RvR likely.   
Wins within the region over Rowan, Rutgers-Camden and W&L should help their case.
SOS currently .619 and should be upwards of .650 by season end.

I think you're probably right.  A week or so ago I was marveling at their chances even as they continued to lose.  Let's say they beat Berry and win 1 out 3 remaining UAA games....that would put them right at 10-7-1 with a sky high SoS and RvR probably around 4-5 (if Wash U doesn't end up ranked and the rest stay put).  Does that get them in?  Has a UAA team ever won only 1 game (especially absent several draws) in league and gotten a bid?

I think they would be much safer winning 2 of the last 3 or at least going 1-1-1.  The trio of wins over W&L, Rowan and RUC definitely were huge.

Emory last won a game on September 25th!

[Flying Weasel]

I could be wrong, but I think 7-8 blemishes is the near the cut-off.   A few teams have gotten in with 9

When has a team received an at-large berth with 9 losses?

[jknezek]

I could be wrong, but I think 7-8 blemishes is the near the cut-off.   A few teams have gotten in with 9

When has a team received an at-large berth with 9 losses?

Blemishes, not losses. Includes ties.

[lastguyoffthebench]

With 10 NCAA titles, it's not FWs fault that he's unaware of the terminology.   Messiah doesn't know what a blemish is!

[Falconer]

With 10 NCAA titles, it's not FWs fault that he's unaware of the terminology.   Messiah doesn't know what a blemish is!

The official number is actually 11 titles, but I myself consider it 10, since Lynchburg was robbed of a fairly earned title in 2010, when a non-call allowed the Falcons to tie the game in the final five minutes of regulation. Lynchburg's coach was very gracious, but I think the foul should have been called and the game would have ended with Lynchburg on top. Is that a blemish?   

[Flying Weasel]

It's 11 NCAA titles, so while we may be unaware of the terminology, at least we can count!!!

Sorry that I misread that. That's makes more sense.  Without looking it up, I imagine teams with 9 blemishes get selected sometimes.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Lastguys 2nd Regional Ranking Projection
1) MSU   14-1-3 (W vs TCNJ)
2) UMW  11-1-3 (Ws vs PSU-Harrisburg, CNU)
3) Rowan 11-5
4) Rutgers-Camden 12-4-2 (L vs Rowan, W over WPU)
5) Emory 9-5-1 (L vs Oglethorpe, W vs Berry)
6) Salisbury 11-2-2
7) W&L 10-3-1
8) Oglethorpe 11-2
-----------------------
9) Ramapo/St. Marys/Lynchburg/York

[jknezek]

It's nice to see W&L really gelling. The three losses are tough. All road games, back to back to back. Travel to Emory, to F&M, and to York, all in an eight day span. The York game was the only one they weren't in, and they just looked tired at that point. Since then, been a strong season. At Lynchburg was a solid tie, and probably the only game I think the Generals were more on the back foot than the front since York.

If either W&L or Lynchburg come out of the ODAC, they will be tough teams to beat. This weekend Lynchburg just couldn't get the ball in the net. Out shot Bridgewater 14-7, 6-4 on goal, 11-1 in corners. Just one of those things that happens in soccer I guess.