2017 South Atlantic

[lastguyoffthebench]

Third Regional Ranking Prediction

1 MSU
2 UMW
3 Oglethorpe
4 Ramapo
5 W&L
6 WPU
7 Rutgers-Camden
8 Lynchburg
---------------------------
9 Emory/Rowan/St Marys MD/Salisbury

[Mr.Right]

I thought you predicted RUC was getting a Pool C? There is no way they can get one being behind WPU. I bet Rowan even at 12-7-0 hangs on in the rankings and does not drop out. I think Ramapo and MSU are now Pool C locks.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Yes, I jumped the gun on Rowan... they should be ranked this time, but drop out the next.

I think RUC will be ahead of WPU for the final Regional Ranking...

I am more interested in Lynchburg at this point.  If a team like St. Joe's can grab a ranking, you'd think the committee makes a move for them.

[Christan Shirk]

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 31, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Montclair State	15-1-2	0.543	3-1-1	15-1-2	1
2.	Mary Washington	13-1-3	0.535	2-0-0	13-1-3	2
3.	Ramapo	13-2-2	0.542	3-1-1	14-2-2	--
4.	Oglethorpe	11-2-0	0.542	1-1-0	12-2-0	3
5.	Rowan	12-6-0	0.599	3-3-0	12-6-0	4
6.	William Paterson	12-6-1	0.585	4-4-0	12-6-1	8
7.	Rutgers-Camden	13-5-2	0.589	2-4-0	13-5-2	6
8.	Washington and Lee	12-3-1	0.554	1-2-0	12-3-1	--

[Mr.Right]

Hmmmmm.....

So you have:

Mary Washington at 13-1-3 with .535 SOS and 2-0-0 RvR

Lynchburg at 13-1-2 with .511 SOS and 1-0-1 RvR


And....Mary Washington is ranked #2 in South Atlantic and Lynchburg cannot crack the Top 8....



I would like ANYONE to try and explain that one.....

[jknezek]

Hmmmmm.....

So you have:

Mary Washington at 13-1-3 with .535 SOS and 2-0-0 RvR

Lynchburg at 13-1-2 with .511 SOS and 1-0-1 RvR


And....Mary Washington is ranked #2 in South Atlantic and Lynchburg cannot crack the Top 8....



I would like ANYONE to try and explain that one.....

It's odd. But who are you going to throw out?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Lynchburg also beat Dickinson, and tied both UMW and W&L.  The only explanation at this point would be how much emphasis there is on SOS.   I don't get it.

If you give an eye test with the three NJAC schools; Rowan, WPU, Camden... I don't know how you can legitimately pick one over the other for a Pool C.   

.700% / .589 SOS / 2-3-1 RvR   
.632% / .599 SOS / 3-4-0 RvR   
.625% / .585 SOS / 4-6-0 RvR   

[Mr.Right]

Hmmmmm.....

So you have:

Mary Washington at 13-1-3 with .535 SOS and 2-0-0 RvR

Lynchburg at 13-1-2 with .511 SOS and 1-0-1 RvR


And....Mary Washington is ranked #2 in South Atlantic and Lynchburg cannot crack the Top 8....



I would like ANYONE to try and explain that one.....

It's odd. But who are you going to throw out?

Nothing to do with throwing anyone out.....My point is there is really NO DIFFERENCE between a #2 ranked team and an unranked team....SO either they should be ranked near each other or not ranked at all......There is no sense to that at all

[lastguyoffthebench]

I'd remove Oglethorpe from the equation...  if one had to go.   

[Mr.Right]

I'd remove Oglethorpe from the equation...  if one had to go.

LOL and Oglethorpe has a similar resume to Lynchburg and MW....Now it makes even less sense....The NJAC team you listed that is 4-6-0 v Ranked IMO would get my nod over the other two but you are correct those 3 NJAC's are tough to seperate.

[Mr.Right]

All the while this little convo going on Mary Washington is being held by Frostburg St 0-0 with about 10 minutes left in the Semi's so it could get real interesting...I like the stream angle right on the pitch...Tough for formations and the like but a good view of the action.

[Mr.Right]

Well Frostburg St took MW to PK's and then looked absolutely useless in PK's...Horrible kicks....MW GK is pretty good...

[lastguyoffthebench]

I'd remove Oglethorpe from the equation...  if one had to go.

LOL and Oglethorpe has a similar resume to Lynchburg and MW....Now it makes even less sense....The NJAC team you listed that is 4-6-0 v Ranked IMO would get my nod over the other two but you are correct those 3 NJAC's are tough to seperate.

3-4 RvR - Rowan 12-7 (picks up loss vs Montclair St for final ranking) Lost to Ramapo, beat WPU and Camden.
4-6 RvR - WPU 12-7-1 (picks up loss to Ramapo for final ranking)  Lost to Ramapo 2x, lost to Rowan
2-3-1 RvR - Camden 13-5-2 (idle after being eliminated by WPU in quarter-final) Tied Ramapo, split with WPU for the year, lost to Rowan

Do the 7 losses weigh heavier on Pool C chances?   SOS will nearly be identical.

Can St. Mary's avenge a 5-1 drubbing vs UMW.   UMW scored 5 goals on 11 shots. 

Can Lynchburg crack the final rankings somehow?  Is it win or bust for a 1 loss team

NJAC FINAL:   Montclair St vs Ramapo (both teams should be NCAA locks)
CAC FINAL:  Mary Washington vs St. Marys (St. Mary's is outside the bubble, UMW near lock)
ODAC FINAL:  Lynchburg/Bridgewater vs W&L/Roanoke  (apparently win or bust)
SAA FINAL:  Oglethorpe/Berry vs Centre/Millsaps
USAC FINAL: Greensboro/Covenant vs NCW/Maryville

[Ejay]

I don't think WPU has a chance.
As for Rowan, I wouldn't take them either, especially after getting hammered in semi-final. If they do make it, I unfortunately think it would be based on history and reputation.
Camden is interesting.  They lost to MSU (outshot 22-7) and tied Po (outshot 26-10), but I think the QF loss is a deal breaker.

I think the ODAC results will be important. 
Bridgewater in with AQ only
Lynchburg I take if they make final, and personally I would even if they lose semi-final to BW (only two losses would be to BW)
W&L I take if they make final or lose semi-final (provided BW doesn't get AQ). If BW gets AQ, I drop W&L for Lynchburg
Noke I think needs AQ

[lastguyoffthebench]

WPU absolutely has a chance, albeit a small one.   4 wins vs ranked opponents and an SOS near .600
However, I think with New Paltz dropping to Brockport, their window in closing.  Wins over Haverford and Eastern are huge.


ODAC, to me, is a one bid league at this point... Committee has shown no love for Lynchburg and if W&L falls in the final, they are likely to slip a spot to 9 or 10 within the region.   I have a terrible memory, and I know it has been pointed out, but if they are not on the NCAA Regional Rankings, I don't think they are brought to the National level.... I could be wrong, but I don't think in tournament history, and unranked team has made the dance.