Pool C - 2017

[USee]

My North Region Projections  (Games thru 11/04)
1. Mount Union 9-0             OAC Pool A
2. Wittenberg 9-0                NCAC Pool A
3. Trine 9-0                         MIAA Pool A
4. North Central 7-1
5. DePauw 8-1
6. Illinois Wesleyan 8-1
7. Franklin 7-1                    HCAC Pool A
8. Heidelberg 6-3
9. Wheaton (Ill.) 7-2
10. Millikin 7-2

Lakeland 7-2                            NACC  Pool A



CCIW  Still up for grabs

My best guess on the North RR tomorrow will be:

(Team, Record, RRO, SOS, Pool)
1. Mount Union 9-0, 0-0, .517  A           
2. Wittenberg 9-0, 0-0, .539 A         
3. Trine 9-0, 1-0, .478   A                     
4. North Central 7-1, 2-1, .542 A
5. Illinois Wesleyan 8-1, 3-1, .503 C
6. DePauw 8-1, 0-1, .518  C             
7. Wheaton (Ill.) 7-2, 1-2, .536  C
8. Franklin 7-2, 0-0, .449 A
9. Millikin 7-2, 1-2, .508  C
10. Hope 7-2, 0-1, .550  C
                           

[tf37]

My North Region Projections  (Games thru 11/04)
1. Mount Union 9-0             OAC Pool A
2. Wittenberg 9-0                NCAC Pool A
3. Trine 9-0                         MIAA Pool A
4. North Central 7-1
5. DePauw 8-1
6. Illinois Wesleyan 8-1
7. Franklin 7-1                    HCAC Pool A
8. Heidelberg 6-3
9. Wheaton (Ill.) 7-2
10. Millikin 7-2

Lakeland 7-2                            NACC  Pool A



CCIW  Still up for grabs

My best guess on the North RR tomorrow will be:

(Team, Record, RRO, SOS, Pool)
1. Mount Union 9-0, 0-0, .517  A           
2. Wittenberg 9-0, 0-0, .539 A         
3. Trine 9-0, 1-0, .478   A                     
4. North Central 7-1, 2-1, .542 A
5. Illinois Wesleyan 8-1, 3-1, .503 C
6. DePauw 8-1, 0-1, .518  C             
7. Wheaton (Ill.) 7-2, 1-2, .536  C
8. Franklin 7-2, 0-0, .449 A
9. Millikin 7-2, 1-2, .508  C
10. Hope 7-2, 0-1, .550  C
                           

Nice call USee.

One small issue,  IWU is only 2-1, they have not beat Millikin yet.

[USee]

But they did beat UWW which I expect will appear in the West!

[tf37]

But they did beat UWW which I expect will appear in the West!

Right - wins over Wheaton and UWW, lost to NCC.

[Mr. Ypsi]

But they did beat UWW which I expect will appear in the West!

Right - wins over Wheaton and UWW, lost to NCC.

As a Titan fan, I had noted that USee was prematurely granting a win to us on Saturday (thanks, USee ).  My worry is that if and when we beat Millikin, will they remain ranked?  At 2-1 RRO, we'd be formidable; at 3-1 probably an absolute lock.  (Of course, if Millikin drops out, Carthage might be the replacement, in which case we'd still be 3-1.)

If tomorrow's ranking don't move (correctly) IWU ahead of Depauw, I will for once have a rooting interest in the Monon Bell -GO LGs, crush the Tigers!  IF IWU is the top Pool C candidate in the North, I think they are off the board quite early.  IF DePauw is the top C candidate, I fear IWU will never even reach the table.

[wally_wabash]

But they did beat UWW which I expect will appear in the West!

Right - wins over Wheaton and UWW, lost to NCC.

As a Titan fan, I had noted that USee was prematurely granting a win to us on Saturday (thanks, USee ).  My worry is that if and when we beat Millikin, will they remain ranked?  At 2-1 RRO, we'd be formidable; at 3-1 probably an absolute lock.  (Of course, if Millikin drops out, Carthage might be the replacement, in which case we'd still be 3-1.)

If tomorrow's ranking don't move (correctly) IWU ahead of Depauw, I will for once have a rooting interest in the Monon Bell -GO LGs, crush the Tigers!  IF IWU is the top Pool C candidate in the North, I think they are off the board quite early.  IF DePauw is the top C candidate, I fear IWU will never even reach the table.

Everybody outside of Greencastle should have a pro-Wabash rooting interest in the Monon Bell game on general principle.  It's just the right thing to do. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

But they did beat UWW which I expect will appear in the West!

Right - wins over Wheaton and UWW, lost to NCC.

As a Titan fan, I had noted that USee was prematurely granting a win to us on Saturday (thanks, USee ).  My worry is that if and when we beat Millikin, will they remain ranked?  At 2-1 RRO, we'd be formidable; at 3-1 probably an absolute lock.  (Of course, if Millikin drops out, Carthage might be the replacement, in which case we'd still be 3-1.)

If tomorrow's ranking don't move (correctly) IWU ahead of Depauw, I will for once have a rooting interest in the Monon Bell -GO LGs, crush the Tigers!  IF IWU is the top Pool C candidate in the North, I think they are off the board quite early.  IF DePauw is the top C candidate, I fear IWU will never even reach the table.

Everybody outside of Greencastle should have a pro-Wabash rooting interest in the Monon Bell game on general principle. It's just the right thing to do.

Not that you're biased or anything!  

I'd assume there are DPU grads who move, and parents of DPU students from elsewhere, so there just might be legitimate reasons for people outside of Greencastle to NOT support Wabash.  Until it affects IWU, I try to stay neutral on such rivalries as the Monon Bell or Hope/Calvin basketball - why risk getting shot at from either side?!

[wally_wabash]

There's a right side to be on here, Mr. Y.  Search your feelings.   

Alright, I missed the eliminator table last week.  I could tell you that I was swamped and busy and didn't get to it, but the truth is I just didn't do it.  Could have, didn't.  So, apologies for that.  Here's an update today:




- Newly eliminated teams in white typeface. 
- A lot of teams eliminated this week because they clinched Pool A bids. 
- I took Hope out because it definitely looks like they're going to be behind at least two CCIW teams, and probably at least one NCAC team and that's just too many teams to be behind, particularly when there may only be one really viable Pool C team in the whole bunch (IWU). 
- I could have probably done the same thing with a number of other teams here (Whitworth, ETBU, Carnegie Mellon, Hendrix, Union, WPI to name a few), but my confidence in how those regions will move around this week isn't quite as high as it is for the North region.  But any of those teams that don't appear in tomorrow's rankings are almost certainly out as well.  I don't know that any of them can do enough with one game AND get enough help to go from out of the rankings into the tournament. 

The big games this weekend for at-large teams are:
Wabash @ DePauw
Millikin @ IWU
Concordia-Moorhead @ St. John's
CWRU @ Carnegie Mellon
Widener @ Delaware Valley
Frostburg St. @ Salisbury

Other games are likely to have impact, but these are the biggies. 

[tf37]

The big games this weekend for at-large teams are:
Wabash @ DePauw
Millikin @ IWU
Concordia-Moorhead @ St. John's
CWRU @ Carnegie Mellon
Widener @ Delaware Valley
Frostburg St. @ Salisbury

Other games are likely to have impact, but these are the biggies.

I would add MIT @ Springfield - given that a lost by Springfield might open up another Pool C slot.

And I will be rooting for both Wabash and IWU (and several other teams).

[wally_wabash]

Good catch, tf.  I knew I missed one.  Springfield getting to 10-0 (or not) is definitely a big deal for at-large watchers this weekend. 

[HansenRatings]

By my model, these are the teams with the biggest games in terms of playoff leverage. Obviously, the Pool A clinching games are going to be huge, but there's also the games Wally mentioned. There's also a few games that should be lopsided, but could cause some additional drama if they don't go the way we think.

[emma17]

Isn't UWL at UWRF also a big game for playoff implications?
UWRF may get overlooked based on record, but they have proven to be a very tough out for every team they've played. 5 games lost by a total of 35 Points.

[wally_wabash]

It could be, emma.  I'll be interested to see what happens to La Crosse in today's rankings.  UWP going out hurts them a lot.  UWW may be in (or UWW may have to wait until they get to 7-3 to get in) which helps La Crosse just a bit (RRO losses are better than losses to unranked teams).  But La Crosse has a common opponent problem with Concordia-Moorhead via Whitewater.  And without that RRO win vs. Platteville, it seems reasonable to me that the Cobbers could be ahead of La Crosse today and even on Saturday night regardless of their result against St. John's (unless the margin is huge).  UWW beating UWPmight have torpedoed UWL's shot at the tournament. 

[emma17]

Ahhh right. That was my rooting conundrum last week.
If Concordia-Moorhead beats St. John's by a good margin, is it fair to assume CM is first in (especially if the committee acknowledges the loss to St. Thomas was without their starting QB)?

That pushes St. John's down to compete for attention with UWL, but then you get the issue with UWW.
I love the intrigue.
 

[wally_wabash]

Ahhh right. That was my rooting conundrum last week.
If Concordia-Moorhead beats St. John's by a good margin, is it fair to assume CM is first in (especially if the committee acknowledges the loss to St. Thomas was without their starting QB)?

That pushes St. John's down to compete for attention with UWL, but then you get the issue with UWW.
I love the intrigue.

The St. John's/Concordia game is probably an elimination game.  I don't think either can get in with two losses- especially St. John's as they have zilch on their profile other than a (deceptive) 3-point loss to St. Thomas.  Concordia would at least have the UWW result to fall back on, but having a win over West #9/10 probably doesn't get you in the field.  I think it's better for La Crosse if Concordia wins and gets selected quickly.  The Eagles would at least have a shot in that scenario.