Pool C - 2017

[jamtod]

Ahhh right. That was my rooting conundrum last week.
If Concordia-Moorhead beats St. John's by a good margin, is it fair to assume CM is first in (especially if the committee acknowledges the loss to St. Thomas was without their starting QB)?

That pushes St. John's down to compete for attention with UWL, but then you get the issue with UWW.
I love the intrigue.

They are still without him and I don't think he's coming back, so I'm not sure they get a pass for this.

[USee]

  I think it's better for La Crosse if Concordia wins and gets selected quickly.  The Eagles would at least have a shot in that scenario.

Similar scenario for 2 loss Wheaton in North. Best case is Wabash beats Depauw this weekend, IWU beats Millikin,  gets selected 1st or 2nd, and then Wheaton is there for last 3 rounds and a win vs an RRO no one else has. I think Wheaton should be ranked ahead of a 1 loss Depauw in the RR but that's unlikely due to win %. SOS will be similar (Depauw likely to be better than Wheaton after this weekend) and Wheaton has a much better RRo profile.

[emma17]

Wheaton needs a slight change to the selection criteria. If each potential Pool B & C team could submit one video of their best half of football, Wheaton would be the shoe in.

[USee]

Wheaton needs a slight change to the selection criteria. If each potential Pool B & C team could submit one video of their best half of football, Wheaton would be the shoe in.

Good point. Beating your arch rival and #4 ranked team in the country 35-7 and dominating the LOS on both sides should count as a separate game.

[wally_wabash]

Quick reactions...

- East rankings are totally sensible.  I've got nothing here. 
- The North remains a mystery.  Not sure how you can justify DePauw ahead of IWU still when DPU has no RRO wins, a 52-6 RRO loss, and just got done trailing Kenyon in the 4th quarter of a non-exhibition game.  0.015 points of SOS doesn't cover that stuff up. 
- I thought the South might keep CWRU back another week, but they went ahead and pushed them up into playoff position today.  The optics are a little better for CWRU this week, but the game is the same- they need to win to be in. 
- Linfield went from t2 to 4 which probably sets them up to either host Chapman or go back to H-SU next week depending on whether or not the committee can talk their way out of a Texas rematch in round 1.  Wartburg stays at #2 and maybe in position for a top seed.  Interesting that La Crosse stayed ahead of Concordia-Moorhead.  Maybe the North region folks aren't the only ones ignoring Whitewater. 

Projection coming later!

[AO]

  Interesting that La Crosse stayed ahead of Concordia-Moorhead.  Maybe the North region folks aren't the only ones ignoring Whitewater. 
Projection coming later!

Pretty funny seeing Lake Forest pop up ahead of Whitewater.  Wouldn't have guessed that would be a possibility earlier this season when Lake Forest gave up 46 points to Carleton. 

[wally_wabash]

  Interesting that La Crosse stayed ahead of Concordia-Moorhead.  Maybe the North region folks aren't the only ones ignoring Whitewater. 
Projection coming later!

Pretty funny seeing Lake Forest pop up ahead of Whitewater.  Wouldn't have guessed that would be a possibility earlier this season when Lake Forest gave up 46 points to Carleton.

I could totally be making this up, but I'm pretty sure I remember hearing in 2015 when North Central had three losses and couldn't get ranked that there is what amounts to a 0.700 win percentage prerequisite to get ranked.  If there's any truth to that at all, Whitewater won't get ranked until after Saturday's games, even though they probably should be ranked today.  Thankfully this year we don't have to guess and we'll be able to see those rankings that used to be a secret. 

[Pat Coleman]

That has definitely been a standard that has been thrown out before (I think it's actually that WL% must be > .667.)

[bluestreak66]

Quick reactions...

- East rankings are totally sensible.  I've got nothing here. 
- The North remains a mystery.  Not sure how you can justify DePauw ahead of IWU still when DPU has no RRO wins, a 52-6 RRO loss, and just got done trailing Kenyon in the 4th quarter of a non-exhibition game.  0.015 points of SOS doesn't cover that stuff up. 
- I thought the South might keep CWRU back another week, but they went ahead and pushed them up into playoff position today.  The optics are a little better for CWRU this week, but the game is the same- they need to win to be in. 
- Linfield went from t2 to 4 which probably sets them up to either host Chapman or go back to H-SU next week depending on whether or not the committee can talk their way out of a Texas rematch in round 1.  Wartburg stays at #2 and maybe in position for a top seed.  Interesting that La Crosse stayed ahead of Concordia-Moorhead.  Maybe the North region folks aren't the only ones ignoring Whitewater. 

Projection coming later!

I almost have the feeling the north region committee is playing chicken with the selection committee. Maybe they think that there's no way IWU will be left out (and fear DePauw will be), so they're making it so the national selection committee will have to take DePauw to get to Ill. Wesleyan, essentially ensuring the north two at large bids.
On a side note Wally, congrats on your 1000th smite lol! It takes dedication to post enough to get that many!

[Mr. Ypsi]

Quick reactions...

- East rankings are totally sensible.  I've got nothing here. 
- The North remains a mystery.  Not sure how you can justify DePauw ahead of IWU still when DPU has no RRO wins, a 52-6 RRO loss, and just got done trailing Kenyon in the 4th quarter of a non-exhibition game.  0.015 points of SOS doesn't cover that stuff up. 
- I thought the South might keep CWRU back another week, but they went ahead and pushed them up into playoff position today.  The optics are a little better for CWRU this week, but the game is the same- they need to win to be in. 
- Linfield went from t2 to 4 which probably sets them up to either host Chapman or go back to H-SU next week depending on whether or not the committee can talk their way out of a Texas rematch in round 1.  Wartburg stays at #2 and maybe in position for a top seed.  Interesting that La Crosse stayed ahead of Concordia-Moorhead.  Maybe the North region folks aren't the only ones ignoring Whitewater. 

Projection coming later!

I almost have the feeling the north region committee is playing chicken with the selection committee. Maybe they think that there's no way IWU will be left out (and fear DePauw will be), so they're making it so the national selection committee will have to take DePauw to get to Ill. Wesleyan, essentially ensuring the north two at large bids.
On a side note Wally, congrats on your 1000th smite lol! It takes dedication to post enough to get that many!

[/b]

Pssht, wally's practically a rookie poster - I've got over 3,000 smites!

[wally_wabash]

New projection time.  I'm using today's regional rankings as if they were the final rankings.  Click here for a full rundown of the mechanics.  25 A, 2 B, 5 C.  Off we go. 

Pool A
The projected 25 Pool A's as of this moment:


- Teams in gold cells have clinched.
- I think the only change this week was projecting RPI in the Liberty League.  The rest are just a whole lot of clinchers from this past week. 

Pool B

Round 1:
1S Mary Hardin-Baylor: 9-0, 2-0 vs. RROs, 0.519 (86th) SOS
3E Springfield: 9-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.500 (132)

No changes here.  UMHB are the pick and the top seed in the tournament. 

Round 2:
2S Hardin-Simmons: 7-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.526 (66)
3E Springfield: 9-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.500 (132)

I went Springfield here last week despite a larger SOS margin.  Both of these two saw their SOS's fall, but the gap is a smidge lower, so I'll stick with Springfield. 

Now after UMHB and Springfield come out of our rankings lists, the remaining regional boards look as follows:
East: Frostburg State, Framingham State
North: DePauw, Illinois Wesleyan, Wheaton, Hope Millikin
South: Hardin-Simmons, Case Western Reserve, Centre, Franklin & Marshall, Hendrix
West: St. John's, UW-La Crosse, Concordia-Moorhead, Lake Forest, Whitworth

Last week I promised y'all that IWU wouldn't be ranked ahead of DePauw this week, and I was wrong.  For whatever reason, the North RAC is sticking with that.  I really don't get it.   

Better news for CWRU this week as they got bumped up ahead of Centre and are next in line after Hardin-Simmons.  That's the best case scenario for the Spartans, and it's now clear that they are in an win-and-in situation.  We don't have to wonder if they'd put CWRU in position to be selected- they've done it. 

One other new thing is that I'm adding in how I would order the teams were I a voting member of the committee after each selection. 

Time to fill out my made-up tournament field. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
5N DePauw - 8-1, 0-1 vs RROs, 0.518 (88)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 7-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.526 (66)
5E Frostburg St. - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.474 (183)
5W St. John's - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.491 (154)

Hardin-Simmons has the highest SOS on the board, I think they have the best RRO result in a not-so-bad defeat to 1S UMHB.  Frostburg and St. John's have close losses as well, but to lower ranked teams.  DePauw's loss looked like the aftermath of a Game of Thrones battle scene.  Cowboys are in and we all wait and see if the NCAA cuts loose the money to avoid a first round game in Belton.   
H-SU, SJU, FSU, DU

Round 2:
5N DePauw - 8-1, 0-1 vs RROs, 0.518 (88)
5S CWRU - 9-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.409 (231)
5E Frostburg St. - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.474 (183)
5W St. John's - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.491 (154)

The good news for CWRU is that the SOS's they're in play with here aren't really great.  DePauw's is ok, but there's still no covering up that 52-6 result vs. Wittenberg.  St. John's took an SOS hit this week, which makes this a very difficult choice.  I'm going to stick with the Johnnies in this spot this week, but it's definitely close between all four. 
SJU, FSU, CWRU, DU

Round 3:
5N DePauw - 8-1, 0-1 vs RROs, 0.518 (88)
5S CWRU - 9-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.409 (231)
5E Frostburg St. - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.474 (183)
6W UW-La Crosse - 7-2, 0-1 RRO, 0.550 (33)

La Crosse joins the party now with a very large SOS, but they've got a second loss and a loss to an unranked team which none of our other teams in play have.  On my little scorecard here, Frostburg gets the nod mostly because of their OT result with Wesley being the best RRO result on the board.
FSU, CWRU, DU, UWL

Round 4:
5N DePauw - 8-1, 0-1 vs RROs, 0.518 (88)
5S CWRU - 9-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.409 (231)
8E Framingham St. - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.488 (160)
6W UW-La Crosse - 7-2, 0-1 RRO, 0.550 (33)

Getting down to the nitty gritty here.  Framingham actually presents a better profile than you might think.  Their loss is a field goal game to E7 Plymouth State, so as far as RRO losses goes, that isn't bad.  However, other RRO losses on the board currently are to N2 and W1 and then there's an undefeated team out there as well.  I think Framingham, despite being better than you think, is at the end of the line.  I'm taking the Spartans here because even though that SOS is still nearly worst-in-division-trash, DePauw has that 52-6 result that I really think is basically a disqualifier.   
CWRU, DU, UWL, FSU

Round 5:
5N DePauw - 8-1, 0-1 vs RROs, 0.518 (88)
7S Centre - 8-1, 1-1 vs. RROs, 0.495 (143)
8E Framingham St. - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.488 (160)
6W UW-La Crosse - 7-2, 0-1 RRO, 0.550 (33)

Isn't this interesting.  Centre has rolled up here with an SOS that compares well with our other at-large selections so far, a not-terrible loss to S3, and- this is huge- an actual RRO win!  I love RRO wins!  So for the last spot- La Crosse is out for me because of the unranked loss and an extra loss.  The SOS just doesn't balance those things out.  Framingham is out with the lowest SOS here and a loss to a lower ranked team than the rest.  And we're down to former SCAC rivals DePauw and Centre.  Based on the way I tend to weigh things, Centre is my pick.  I will readily admit here that it is highly unlikely, no matter how smelly I think that DPU result vs. Witt is, that they would be the first team up from the North and not get picked.  But, their profile is not that good and while RRO losses are generally better than unranked losses, when that result is 52-6, you've kind of exposed yourself as a team that maybe doesn't need to keep playing.  At least that's my take.  And even if I'm wrong about the damning nature of that one result, DePauw does not compare favorably with the other teams selected and remain a block to Illinois Wesleyan who absolutely deserve to be in the field. 
Centre, DU, UWL, FSU

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

So bubble teams are hoping fellow bubble DePauw win as they keep IWU off the board. Don't see that scenario too often.
If everything was the same except DePauw was out of the way (say by losing some game this weekend that no one has heard of ), where would IWU fall in the pecking order? And with IWU in, could Wheaton get to the table and have any say in proceedings (probably not)?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Quick reactions...

- East rankings are totally sensible.  I've got nothing here. 
- The North remains a mystery.  Not sure how you can justify DePauw ahead of IWU still when DPU has no RRO wins, a 52-6 RRO loss, and just got done trailing Kenyon in the 4th quarter of a non-exhibition game.  0.015 points of SOS doesn't cover that stuff up. 
- I thought the South might keep CWRU back another week, but they went ahead and pushed them up into playoff position today.  The optics are a little better for CWRU this week, but the game is the same- they need to win to be in. 
- Linfield went from t2 to 4 which probably sets them up to either host Chapman or go back to H-SU next week depending on whether or not the committee can talk their way out of a Texas rematch in round 1.  Wartburg stays at #2 and maybe in position for a top seed.  Interesting that La Crosse stayed ahead of Concordia-Moorhead.  Maybe the North region folks aren't the only ones ignoring Whitewater. 

Projection coming later!

I almost have the feeling the north region committee is playing chicken with the selection committee. Maybe they think that there's no way IWU will be left out (and fear DePauw will be), so they're making it so the national selection committee will have to take DePauw to get to Ill. Wesleyan, essentially ensuring the north two at large bids.
On a side note Wally, congrats on your 1000th smite lol! It takes dedication to post enough to get that many!

Remember, the national committee approves the regional committee's work or changes it every week these are released. The RAC can't play too many games or try and pull one over on the national committee who is the selection committee... because the national committee is paying attention every week.

That said, the national committee isn't apparently changing this as of right now. Not sure why and I am not going to guess... but it isn't like the RAC can be all that tricky in the grand scheme of things.

[wally_wabash]

So bubble teams are hoping fellow bubble DePauw win as they keep IWU off the board. Don't see that scenario too often.
If everything was the same except DePauw was out of the way (say by losing some game this weekend that no one has heard of ), where would IWU fall in the pecking order? And with IWU in, could Wheaton get to the table and have any say in proceedings (probably not)?

I think they'd go in either right before or right after H-SU.  And then Wheaton would be in play, and they present an interesting case. 

That IWU is such a clear and obvious choice for one of these spots based on the same criteria that the committees are supposed to be using to rank teams makes it all the more puzzling to me how DePauw can stay ranked ahead of IWU.  0.015 points of SOS just doesn't eclipse IWU's advantages over DePauw in the rest of the criteria.  I'd love to know what I'm missing about 2017 DePauw that ranks them ahead of Illinois Wesleyan.   

[Mr. Ypsi]

So bubble teams are hoping fellow bubble DePauw win as they keep IWU off the board. Don't see that scenario too often.
If everything was the same except DePauw was out of the way (say by losing some game this weekend that no one has heard of ), where would IWU fall in the pecking order? And with IWU in, could Wheaton get to the table and have any say in proceedings (probably not)?

I think they'd go in either right before or right after H-SU.  And then Wheaton would be in play, and they present an interesting case. 

That IWU is such a clear and obvious choice for one of these spots based on the same criteria that the committees are supposed to be using to rank teams makes it all the more puzzling to me how DePauw can stay ranked ahead of IWU.  0.015 points of SOS just doesn't eclipse IWU's advantages over DePauw in the rest of the criteria.  I'd love to know what I'm missing about 2017 DePauw that ranks them ahead of Illinois Wesleyan.   

A humungous bribe by some Dannie alum?!

It makes no sense.  LGs, make it a moot point in the Monon Bell!