The Big Dance

[Mr.Right]

early prediction, before giving it a ton of thought:
W&L
Lynchburg
Rowan
Oneonta

I will take any odds you give me that none of those teams are in the Final 4

Let me guess, you're going out on a limb and picking a Tufts v. Messiah semi-final?

Not sure yet BUT I know who I am not picking. I have seen Rowan play about 3 times on the stream and they are a very solid team but can be beaten. They are very athletic and I really like that Doherty kid as that kid has some sick speed and I like speed. Not many defenders can keep up with him and if I was picking a team of 11 from every team in this tournament he would be on it. They have a 6'8 GK which is very impressive and intimidating but RUN failed to get him down on the carpet with low bullets so I have not seen how fast he can get down which would be key. Rowan will be a tough out and they will want their revenge on Tufts. I think they get by JHU easily but not sold yet if they can win at Tufts. Will know soon.

Oneonta is another very solid team but like I said yesterday they are a well oiled machine at Home but the minute they are plucked from their Home turf and put on the road especially on grass they struggle IMO. Plus they do not have a walkover in the 1st or 2nd round with some teams that will sit compact and deep against them. They might get bounced this weekend who knows.

Honestly I have not seen W&L or Lynchburg but I know how Singleton at W&L plays from his days at MIT. He is a solid coach but his teams usually wilt against bigger physical teams. Not sure if he is recruiting differently nowadays. Lynchburg's bracket is just way to difficult to get thru IMO. Like I said I have no idea but will still take any odds you give me that those 4 will not be there.

[D3soccerwatcher]

My early prediction for the Final Four:
North Park
Calvin
Rowan
Messiah

Rowan couldn't even win the NJAC...what makes you think they will survive the toughest quadrant of the bracket? 

Messiah has won the national championship 3 times without winning the conference so I'm certain it can can be done.

[Shooter McGavin]

My early prediction for the Final Four:
North Park
Calvin
Rowan
Messiah

Rowan couldn't even win the NJAC...what makes you think they will survive the toughest quadrant of the bracket? 

Messiah has won the national championship 3 times without winning the conference so I'm certain it can can be done.

Yes but that's Messiah...you're really going to compare this Rowan team to the last 15+ years of Messiah teams??? No way they are even close to that level.

[Flying Weasel]

My early prediction for the Final Four:
North Park
Calvin
Rowan
Messiah

Rowan couldn't even win the NJAC...what makes you think they will survive the toughest quadrant of the bracket? 

Messiah has won the national championship 3 times without winning the conference so I'm certain it can can be done.

The last four men's national champions did not win their conference tournament.

Five of the last seven men's national champions did not win their conference tournament.

Seven of the last thirteen men's national champions did not win their conference tournament.

Men's National Champions who did not win their conference tournament: 2016 Tufts, 2015 Amherst, 2014 Tufts, 2013 Messiah, 2011 Ohio Wesleyan, 2006 Messiah, 2004 Messiah.

P.S. I don't think Rowan will win it all this year, but not because they lost in their conference final.

[Shooter McGavin]

My early prediction for the Final Four:
North Park
Calvin
Rowan
Messiah

Rowan couldn't even win the NJAC...what makes you think they will survive the toughest quadrant of the bracket? 

Messiah has won the national championship 3 times without winning the conference so I'm certain it can can be done.

The last four men's national champions did not win their conference tournament.

Five of the last seven men's national champions did not win their conference tournament.

Seven of the last thirteen men's national champions did not win their conference tournament.

Men's National Champions who did not win their conference tournament: 2016 Tufts, 2015 Amherst, 2014 Tufts, 2013 Messiah, 2011 Ohio Wesleyan, 2006 Messiah, 2004 Messiah.

Solid research +k!

Still not gonna change my mind on Rowan though. They won't make the final 4 for all the reasons I have been posting over the last couple of weeks, which were the exact reasons why they couldn't even win the NJAC.

[rudy]

I'll go with:

Final 4:
Kenyon
Tufts
Calvin
Messiah

I think this is Kenyon's year to make it to the final 4.  Over achieve this year..they are due for some breaks this time around.
Tufts just has lady luck on their side and a defense yet to let up a legit goal.   And they literally have a walk in the park to sweet 16 with a bye and very easy first game.  St Joe's may give them a game but other than Bowdoin win they do not have a win over a real tough team. So well rested while other teams like Lyco/RUN/Rowan/Drew/F&M/Hopkins battle it out in early rounds in their quadrant.  Despite Calvin's easy schedule they play a style similar to Messiah (possession) and were in finals last year and semi finals in 2015.  Someone will need to knock them out..maybe this is Chicago's year but Calvin has had more recent success in tournament so I'm going with them.  Messiah has good draw for first round..not the best location given they are the top seed but they may come home if they make it through the weekend where they will be ready to get through sweet 16 and elite 8 barriers and return to the final 4.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

1st round games to keep an eye on...
UW-P vs Westminster
W&L vs MW
Kenyon vs Transylvania
Dominican vs Capital
JC vs OWU
Dickinson vs Emory
F&M vs Drew
Newark vs Bowdoin
Buff St vs Hobart
Midd vs Stevens
UR vs CT College

I can see any of these games going one way or the other. All toss ups in my view. Now clearly Kenyon and JC will be favored in those matches but I would not be surprised to see them on the short end of the stick. Do I anticipate that happening? Probably not both losing maybe 1 and will not at all be shocked if both win. But it's close enough that they made the "toss-up" list. 

[PaulNewman]

1st round games to keep an eye on...
UW-P vs Westminster
W&L vs MW
Kenyon vs Transylvania
Dominican vs Capital
JC vs OWU
Dickinson vs Emory
F&M vs Drew
Newark vs Bowdoin
Buff St vs Hobart
Midd vs Stevens
UR vs CT College

I can see any of these games going one way or the other. All toss ups in my view. Now clearly Kenyon and JC will be favored in those matches but I would not be surprised to see them on the short end of the stick. Do I anticipate that happening? Probably not both losing maybe 1 and will not at all be shocked if both win. But it's close enough that they made the "toss-up" list.

Agree 100%.  St Joseph's (ME) appropriately getting attention in New England but Transy is similarly sitting on a stellar 17-1 record.

[Gregory Sager]

1st round games to keep an eye on...
UW-P vs Westminster

I'm looking forward to doing the play-by-play for this match, as I haven't seen either side before and it'll be fun to work a match that'll feature a five-camera setup and replay at my disposal.

[Dubuquer]

1st round games to keep an eye on...
UW-P vs Westminster

I'm looking forward to doing the play-by-play for this match, as I haven't seen either side before and it'll be fun to work a match that'll feature a five-camera setup and replay at my disposal.

Greg, when announcing this game please be sure to give Platteville (and Loras) a hard time for not scheduling a game against each other this season (or last) despite being only 20 miles apart as the crow flies.  Mrs Dubuquer works at one and I work at the other and we want to see them play.

[Gregory Sager]

It's a bit of a stretch, Dubuquer. It'd be relevant if Loras was a potential common opponent of the Pioneers and the Titans, but the Duhawks didn't play Westminster (MO), either.

[PaulNewman]

MAF, you might want to add Medaille at Otterbein to your list. The Mavericks have played the likes of Lycoming,  Buff St and Brockport, with decent results. Played Buff St tough and beat Brockport. The Mavericks are almost all frosh and sophs and almost the whole team is from England, Scotland and Australia. Led by frosh striker with one of the best names in the tourney...Given Holy Gdobe.

[truenorth]

I'm curious what would motivate teenagers and early 20-somethings from England, Scotland and Australia to come and play soccer at a D3 college in the U.S.?  There are no D3 athletic scholarships and it's a relatively modest level of play...

[Part_Bart]

I'm curious what would motivate teenagers and early 20-somethings from England, Scotland and Australia to come and play soccer at a D3 college in the U.S.?  There are no D3 athletic scholarships and it's a relatively modest level of play...

Well, and speaking only as someone who works at a university, there is the chance to parlay your soccer skills into a college education at places that do not offer athletic scholarships.  Merit awards can be made for a host of reasons.  Some of the these merit awards are for high-performing academics. Some are made to young women and men who are great artists, or have other rare skills (e.g., amazing baton twirling, demonstrated ability to be a community organizer, success as a young entrepreneur, etc.). Likewise, creating a more diverse student body while providing this student body with the chance to engage with international students has merit that deserves financial support.

[truenorth]

I think we all get that in a general sense of liberal arts colleges.  As one anecdotal example, we are host family for a NESCAC student from Hanoi who is on partial grant aid, is passionate about international relations, but is not an athlete.... 

So are you thinking that Medaille College in Buffalo, NY is appealing to academically qualified high school graduates from the UK, Australia and Spain to come to the U.S. for a quality education...and that those young lads just happen to have an additional skill that translates on the soccer pitch?  I apologize if I'm sounding cynical, but if you look at the roster it just begs the question...

http://www.medaillesports.com/roster.aspx?path=msoc