2018 NCAA Tournament

Gregory Sager · March 11, 2018, 03:32:13 PM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on March 11, 2018, 01:00:26 AM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on March 09, 2018, 10:45:06 PM
It's going to take a Final Four appearance for the IIAC to get any props, dunkin. The IIAC is a charter member conference of D3, yet it has never had a team reach the final weekend of the season in the 44 previous D3 tourneys.

Props in order now, Greg?

Yep, props ... and a question: Why didn't the IIAC invite NebWes to join the family thirty years ago?

Gregory Sager · March 11, 2018, 03:56:48 PM

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on March 10, 2018, 10:26:07 PM
Quote from: mailsy on March 10, 2018, 10:16:49 PM
3 unranked teams and the #24 ranked team in the final 4. Who would of thought that at beginning of the season? Well the final will all be ranked and 1 will be number 1 in the last poll.

There's parity and then there is utter chaos!

The FF generally has AT LEAST two teams ranked in the final (regular season) top ten, and I'm not sure there has EVER been a FF with even two unranked teams, much less three (and two of them receiving ZERO votes). For the highest FF team to be ranked #24 is beyond weird - we've entered the Twilight Zone.

The pre-tourney d3hoops.com poll and the Final Four

year	champ	2nd	3rd	4th
2000	Calvin (#22)	Wisconsin-Eau Claire (#19)	Salem State (ORV)	Franklin & Marshall (#5)
2001	Catholic (#7)	William Paterson (#2)	Illinois Wesleyan (#25)	Ohio Northern (ORV)
2002	Otterbein (no votes)	Elizabethtown (ORV)	Carthage (#1)	Rochester (no votes)
2003	Williams (#11)	Gustavus Adolphus (ORV)	Wooster (ORV)	Hampden-Sydney (#7)
2004	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#3)	Williams (#1)	John Carroll (#12)	Amherst (#14)
2005	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#1)	Rochester (#5)	Calvin (no votes)	York (PA) (no votes)
2006	Virginia Wesleyan (#11)	Wittenberg (#10)	Illinois Wesleyan (#1)	Amherst (#5)
2007	Amherst (#3)	Virginia Wesleyan (#1)	Washington (MO) (ORV)	Wooster (#2)
2008	Washington (MO) (#1)	Amherst (#2)	Hope (#11)	Ursinus (no votes)
2009	Washington (MO) (#1)	Stockton (ORV)	Guilford (ORV)	Franklin & Marshall (no votes)
2010	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#10)	Williams (ORV)	*Guilford (#3)	*Randolph-Macon (#19)
2011	St. Thomas (#13)	Wooster (#6)	*Middlebury (#9)	*Williams (#8)
2012	Wisconsin-Whitewater (ORV)	Cabrini (#14)	*Illinois Wesleyan (ORV)	*MIT (#10)
2013	Amherst (#5)	Mary Hardin-Baylor (ORV)	*North Central (IL) (#6)	*St. Thomas (#11)
2014	Wisconsin-Whitewater (#13)	Williams (#3)	*Amherst (#1)	*Illinois Wesleyan (#2)
2015	Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#7)	Augustana (#3)	*Babson (#23)	*Virginia Wesleyan (#19)
2016	St. Thomas (#4)	Benedictine (no votes)	*Amherst (#5)	*Christopher Newport (ORV)
2017	Babson (#3)	Augustana (#18)	*Whitman (#9)	*Williams (no votes)
2018	^Wisconsin-Oshkosh (#24)	^Nebraska Wesleyan (ORV)	^Ramapo (no votes)	^Springfield (no votes)

* Third-place finish following elimination of national consolation game
^ Final Four yet to be played

Poll points per Final Four
2000: 750
2001: 1064
2002: 620
2003: 839
2004: 1604
2005: 1028
2006: 1644
2007: 1676
2008: 1529
2009: 680
2010: 1068
2011: 1473
2012: 579
2013: 1205
2014: 1934
2015: 1206
2016: 863
2017: 1093
2018: 158

Titan Q · March 11, 2018, 04:20:15 PM

Quote from: Gregory Sager on March 11, 2018, 03:56:48 PM
Poll points per Final Four
2000: 750
2001: 1064
2002: 620
2003: 839
2004: 1604
2005: 1028
2006: 1644
2007: 1676
2008: 1529
2009: 680
2010: 1068
2011: 1473
2012: 579
2013: 1205
2014: 1934
2015: 1206
2016: 863
2017: 1093
2018: 158

No bonuses for the D3hoops.com Top 25 pollsters this year.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · March 11, 2018, 04:33:31 PM

The Road to Rochester and Salem are nearly complete. Only thing left is to actually hit the road and get the teams, media, fans, and others to their respective championships.

It was a thrilling and, maybe, shocking Sectionals Weekend in Division III. For the women, quite a few exciting games, but four of the top five teams in the country advanced to the Championship Weekend.

Not so much on the men's side. Only one ranked team is headed to Salem. Two weren't even receiving votes in the last Top 25 poll. And two have never been to the final four. Only one host got out of their own gym by cutting down their own nets. It was crazy.

On Sunday night's episode of Hoopsville, Dave and guests try and break down what happened this weekend and what we might be able to expect in Rochester and Salem. Who came up big, who had the bounces go their way, and more. Guests from four of the eight teams will also discuss their roads and initial thoughts on knowing they are two wins away from a national championship.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch the show LIVE starting at 7:00 p.m. ET (did you set your clocks back?) right here: http://bit.ly/2p2BbqB

If you have questions, be sure to email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or interact with the show via the social media avenues below.

Guests include (in order of appearance):
- Pat Juckem, No. 24 UW-Oshkosh men's coach
- Ashley Shibles, No. 5 Bowdoin women's coach
- Jeff Hans, No. 3 Thomas More women's coach
- Dale Wellman, Nebraska Wesleyan men's coach
- Ryan Scott, D3hoops.com Around the Nation columnist
- Pat Cunningham, Trinity (Texas) men's coach (NABC All-Star Game)

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Gregory Sager · March 11, 2018, 04:42:31 PM

Quote from: Titan Q on March 11, 2018, 04:20:15 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on March 11, 2018, 03:56:48 PM
Poll points per Final Four
2000: 750
2001: 1064
2002: 620
2003: 839
2004: 1604
2005: 1028
2006: 1644
2007: 1676
2008: 1529
2009: 680
2010: 1068
2011: 1473
2012: 579
2013: 1205
2014: 1934
2015: 1206
2016: 863
2017: 1093
2018: 158

No bonuses for the D3hoops.com Top 25 pollsters this year.

Yeah, the poll points listing is where you see just how glaringly off the last regular-season poll was in predicting this particular Final Four, as compared to previous seasons. It's only 27% as accurate as the previous least-accurate poll to date (2012) had been in predicting the Final Four.

Of course, upsets are just as much a fact of life in the tourney as they are in the regular season, and the money-based bracketing decisions made by the NCAA D3 men's basketball national committee tend to distort how the field looks in terms of the d3hoops.com poll. Still, it's amazing how dramatically this poll deviates from all of the previous seasons since the poll was launched in terms of Final Four accuracy.

Pat Coleman · March 11, 2018, 05:34:37 PM

It's a perfect reflection of what an unpredictable season this has been. (Although I wish some of those people who had Nichols so high on their ballot had given Nebraska Wesleyan a better look.)

ronk · March 11, 2018, 08:30:31 PM

Quote from: Titan Q on March 11, 2018, 10:01:13 AM
UW-Oshkosh becomes the 5th WIAC school to make the D3 Final Four. The CCIW, WIAC, NESCAC, and NCAC have all sent 5...

*CCIW 5 (Augustana 6, Illinois Wesleyan 6, North Park 5, Carthage 1, North Central 1)
*WIAC 5 (Whitewater 5, Platteville 5, Stevens Point 4, Eau Claire 1, Oshkosh 1)
*NESCAC 5 (Williams 8, Amherst 7, Connecticut College 1, Middlebury 1, Trinity 1)
*NCAC 5 (Wittenberg 7, Wooster 3, DePauw 2, Ohio Wesleyan 1 Wabash 1)

The MAC has had 7 in the Final 4(Northern Division - Scranton, Upsala, Wilkes, Elizabethtown; Southern Division - Widener, F&M, Lebanon Valley), although none in the "modern" era(since 2002).

Pat Coleman · March 11, 2018, 08:48:27 PM

Posted this to Twitter earlier, but the NJAC has had six.

kiko · March 11, 2018, 08:53:54 PM

Quote from: Gregory Sager on March 11, 2018, 03:56:48 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on March 10, 2018, 10:26:07 PM
Quote from: mailsy on March 10, 2018, 10:16:49 PM
3 unranked teams and the #24 ranked team in the final 4. Who would of thought that at beginning of the season? Well the final will all be ranked and 1 will be number 1 in the last poll.

There's parity and then there is utter chaos!

The FF generally has AT LEAST two teams ranked in the final (regular season) top ten, and I'm not sure there has EVER been a FF with even two unranked teams, much less three (and two of them receiving ZERO votes). For the highest FF team to be ranked #24 is beyond weird - we've entered the Twilight Zone.

The pre-tourney d3hoops.com poll and the Final Four

year champ 2nd 3rd 4th
2000 Calvin (#22) Wisconsin-Eau Claire (#19) Salem State (ORV)
Franklin & Marshall (#5)
2001 Catholic (#7) William Paterson (#2) Illinois Wesleyan (#25)
Ohio Northern (ORV)
2002 Otterbein (no votes) Elizabethtown (ORV) Carthage (#1)
Rochester (no votes)
2003 Williams (#11) Gustavus Adolphus (ORV) Wooster (ORV)
Hampden-Sydney (#7)
2004 Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#3) Williams (#1) John Carroll (#12) Amherst (#14)
2005 Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#1) Rochester (#5) Calvin (no votes) York (PA) (no votes)
2006 Virginia Wesleyan (#11) Wittenberg (#10) Illinois Wesleyan (#1) Amherst (#5)
2007 Amherst (#3) Virginia Wesleyan (#1) Washington (MO) (ORV) Wooster (#2)
2008 Washington (MO) (#1) Amherst (#2) Hope (#11) Ursinus (no votes)
2009 Washington (MO) (#1) Stockton (ORV) Guilford (ORV)
Franklin & Marshall (no votes)
2010 Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#10) Williams (ORV) *Guilford (#3) *Randolph-Macon (#19)
2011 St. Thomas (#13) Wooster (#6) *Middlebury (#9)
*Williams (#8)
2012 Wisconsin-Whitewater (ORV) Cabrini (#14) *Illinois Wesleyan (ORV) *MIT (#10)
2013 Amherst (#5) Mary Hardin-Baylor (ORV) *North Central (IL) (#6) *St. Thomas (#11)
2014 Wisconsin-Whitewater (#13) Williams (#3) *Amherst (#1)
*Illinois Wesleyan (#2)
2015 Wisconsin-Stevens Point (#7) Augustana (#3) *Babson (#23) *Virginia Wesleyan (#19)
2016 St. Thomas (#4) Benedictine (no votes) *Amherst (#5)
*Christopher Newport (ORV)
2017 Babson (#3) Augustana (#18) *Whitman (#9) *Williams (no votes)
2018 ^Wisconsin-Oshkosh (#24) ^Nebraska Wesleyan (ORV) ^Ramapo (no votes) ^Springfield (no votes)

* Third-place finish following elimination of national consolation game
^ Final Four yet to be played

Poll points per Final Four
2000: 750
2001: 1064
2002: 620
2003: 839
2004: 1604
2005: 1028
2006: 1644
2007: 1676
2008: 1529
2009: 680
2010: 1068
2011: 1473
2012: 579
2013: 1205
2014: 1934
2015: 1206
2016: 863
2017: 1093
2018: 158

This is an apples and oranges comparison -- for the previous years, it looks like you are using the preseason poll rather than the final regular season poll. (Seeing Benedictine with no votes for 2016 was the flag on this; they started at zero in the pre-season but were #2 by the end of the regular season.)

The pre-season nums for 2018 are:
Ramapo - #5 / 457 points
Oshkosh - ORV / 37 points
Nebraska Wesleyan - ORV / 1 point (someone should be strutting like a peacock right now for this)
Springfield - no votes
=====
Total - 495 points

From a pre-season standpoint, it is still the worst forecast on record, but not as bad as it looked using the year-end nums.

And that (being 'not as bad as it looked at year-end') is what makes this year's final four especially astonishing. The two doorstop winners noted above that were not in the top 25 in the pre-season were Otterbein in 2002 and Whitewater circa 2012. But both of these teams had climbed into the top 10 by the end of the regular season, with Otterbein at #6 and the Warhawks at #8 in the final poll. Usually the misses/oversights blink like a beacon as the year unfolds, and are more or less adjusted for come tournament time. This year, rather than progress, the pollsters regressed and were well off even as late as Week 13. Which is not a slam, btw -- my rankings would have looked even worse. I think we've never seen anything like the parity and fluidity of this year.

Titan Q · March 11, 2018, 09:00:42 PM

I just booked my airfare for Salem this weekend. Wouldn't miss it.

Greek Tragedy · March 11, 2018, 09:09:35 PM

So the pre-tourney poll is the last regular season poll before the tourney? Or pre-season poll?

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · March 11, 2018, 09:13:48 PM

I only looked at the Benedictine note... yeah, they were voted pretty highly headed into the final four... the graph says "no votes."

So... was the table a pre-season one that was used? Or the Week 13 poll? It says pre-tourney, but not sure all that info is right.

Another incorrect example, UMHB was getting no votes leading into the tournament that year... they were NOT part of the ORV.

Gregory Sager · March 11, 2018, 10:38:52 PM

It's actually the pre-season poll. I inserted the wrong table. Sorry about that. I'll try to find the right one.

Mr. Ypsi · March 11, 2018, 11:23:01 PM

I ran the numbers for the last three completed seasons, and the results are even more dramatic as to what an outlier 2018 is!

2017: #1, #3, ORV, ORV Total points 1227
2016: #2, #4, #7, #15 " " 1849
2015: #4, #6, #8, #9 " " 1847

2018: #24, ORV, no votes, no votes Total points 158

Mr. Ypsi · March 12, 2018, 12:54:53 AM

I'm now heading to bed, but added three more years of FF and final pretourney poll:

2014: #3, #5, #7, #9 Total points 1945
2013: #1, #2, #3, no votes " " 1789
2012: #3, #5, #8, ORV " " 1515

Compared to 2018 (zero top ten, 1 ranked #24, 1 ORV, and 2 no votes), the previous six years had 19 top ten, 1 ranked #15, 3 ORVs, and one no votes. 2018 was not just weird; it entered The Twilight Zone!