2018 Season - National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman's Own Top 25  (thru 10/7/18)

1)  Messiah
2)  Tufts
3)  Chicago
4)  Calvin

Top four almost totally interchangeable and well ahead of rest of pack...

5)  Connecticut College (1 GA so far versus solid schedule)
6)  Montclair St
7)  Lynchburg
8)  Trinity (TX)
9)  Loras
10) Cortland St

Another significant separation right around here...

11) Stevens
12) Kenyon
13) Mary Washington
14) Franklin & Marshall
15) Carnegie Mellon
16) Lycoming
17) Rochester
18) Ohio Wesleyan
19) North Park
20) Emory
21) St Joseph's (ME)
22) Capital
23) Vassar
24) Johns Hopkins
25) [TIE] Hope/Willamette/GAC/TX-Tyler/Carleton

Receiving Votes (no order) -- St. Norbert, Grove City, Salisbury, Rutgers-Camden, Ithaca, CWRU, Eastern, TX-Dallas, Colorado Coll, C-M-S, Brockport St, SLU, Macalester, PS-Harrisburg, RWU, Salve Regina, Norwich, St Thomas

Heavyweights lurking in low-lying weeds -- Brandeis, Amherst, Williams, Middlebury, Bowdoin, Wash U, Washington & Lee, Rowan, John Carroll, Oneonta St, Endicott, Babson, WPI

[Shooter McGavin]

Well done Paul +K

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's 25
1. Chicago (11-0-1)
2. Messiah (10-0-2)
3. Tufts (9-0-1)
4. St. Joe's Maine (12-0-0)
5. Calvin (10-1-0)
6. Lynchburg (8-0-2)
7. CT College (10-0-0)
8. Montclair (12-1-1)
9. Trinity (10-1-1)
10. MW (8-0-2)
11. CMU (8-1-2)
12. Stevens (11-1-1)
13. Kenyon (8-1-1)
14. F&M (9-1-2)
15. Cortland St (10-1-2)
16. Rochester (8-1-1)
17. Lycoming (10-1-1)
18. Hope (10-1-0)
19. Emory (8-2-0)
20. North Park (8-2-0)
21. Loras (9-1-0)
22. PSU-Harrisburg (13-1-1)
23. St. Norbert (11-0-1)
24. Ithaca (7-1-3)
25. UW-Platteville (7-1-1)

RV (No order): Norwich, Springfield, Amherst, Babson, Roger Williams, Eastern, Hopkins, Ramapo, Rowan, RUC, Salisbury, NYU, Oneonta St, Brockport St, St. Lawrence, Case Western, Mount Aloysius, Grove City, Capital, DePauw, OWU, ONU, Webster, MSOE, St. Thomas, Cornell, Gustavus Adolphus, St. Thomas, Tx Tyler, Willamette, Tx Dallas

[4samuy]

Interesting and good thoughts Paul.  Putting Loras in at #9 IMHO would use your "almost interchangeable" top 4 and move Chicago to #1.  1-0 vs. the top 4.  2-0-1 vs. top ten and 5-0-1 vs. top 20 with four of the six on the road.

[PaulNewman]

Interesting and good thoughts Paul.  Putting Loras in at #9 IMHO would use your "almost interchangeable" top 4 and move Chicago to #1.  1-0 vs. the top 4.  2-0-1 vs. top ten and 5-0-1 vs. top 20 with four of the six on the road.

Yeah, I think teams like Loras, Cortland, and Montclair have been rated too low.  The St Joe's story is a great one, but even with decent wins over Gordon, Endicott and Bowdoin I can't see putting them as high as others have been doing. 

In terms of Chicago, I love their talent and would likely rank them #1 based purely on results.  I don't trust them yet, though, in a huge NCAA game versus Messiah or Tufts, and they were fortunate to get out of Calvin with a W.  I think Chicago has the best talent, or at least the most firepower, although that is arguable from the Messiah point of view, but I could see Tufts roughing up Lopez and Koh and taking them out of their games and frustrating them.

[4samuy]

Yeah,  I've seen Messiah, Tufts, Calvin and Chicago play three plus times plus this year.  Chicago's fire power keeps coming up on these boards, myself included, but not much is made of their grit.  They have out fouled their opponents upwards of 155-120.  Is that a good stat?  I guess it depends on where and why the fouls occur and if it results in further disciplinary action.

Many of Chicago's fouls IMO occur in the middle of the pitch on 50/50 balls that they may lose and try to poke to a teamate or try to create an opponents mistake to counter or in their offensive third trying to keep the opponent from moving from back to front, so they are smart about where those fouls occur.  Chicago's ability to counter and use the flanks is their strength and a lot of it starts with constant pressure on the ball and anticipating an opponents pass moving forward.

All this being said,  the biggest challenge Chicago has moving forward is set pieces in their back third. Sophomore keeper katsimpalis has been outstanding as of late as has the back line, but they are not big/ tall other than center back Sam Drablos, but are quick. This is why I think it will be important for Chicago to continue to be aggressive on the ball and pick their spots when they foul on the pitch.

[PaulNewman]

Yeah,  I've seen Messiah, Tufts, Calvin and Chicago play three plus times plus this year.  Chicago's fire power keeps coming up on these boards, myself included, but not much is made of their grit.  They have out fouled their opponents upwards of 155-120.  Is that a good stat?  I guess it depends on where and why the fouls occur and if it results in further disciplinary action.

Many of Chicago's fouls IMO occur in the middle of the pitch on 50/50 balls that they may lose and try to poke to a teamate or try to create an opponents mistake to counter or in their offensive third trying to keep the opponent from moving from back to front, so they are smart about where those fouls occur.  Chicago's ability to counter and use the flanks is their strength and a lot of it starts with constant pressure on the ball and anticipating an opponents pass moving forward.

All this being said,  the biggest challenge Chicago has moving forward is set pieces in their back third. Sophomore keeper katsimpalis has been outstanding as of late as has the back line, but they are not big/ tall other than center back Sam Drablos, but are quick. This is why I think it will be important for Chicago to continue to be aggressive on the ball and pick their spots when they foul on the pitch.

That's interesting (and surprising to me) that Chicago has a high foul total.  I do think that's a good sign, assuming they are comfortable in that mode and not fouling reactively.  Messiah is one of the few teams that I think can foul less and not be impacted....goes along with the talent and overall confidence that comes with winning 11 titles.  Tufts generally has high foul totals, which makes more sense with their size, physicality and athleticism.  I would be very curious to see if they could mark Koh and/or Lopez out of a game, and whether they could completely frustrate West for Messiah as well.

I thought Chicago was the best team in the country last year and would have had a very good chance to beat Messiah in the final.  You have to have some luck, too, like advancing in PKs, getting that fortunate bounce, etc, etc.

[4samuy]

I guess that brings me back to the original debate.  Chicago at #1.  There were postings on these boards last year about the lack of trust people had in Chicago, which were well warranted after their sweet sixteen loss to Redlands (at Chicago, no less) in 2016.  They got to the final four in 2017 and lost a tough one to NPU and I  agree they would have given Messiah all they could handle.

Getting your program to elite status is a process, and Chicago coach Babst has done that with a deep talented team, with a combination of youngsters and veterans, which brings me to my point:  I believe a physical, smart and potent offensive team with an incredibly difficult schedule In Chicago vs. a fluid and potent offensive with pedigree Messiah team vs. size and physicality, pedigree of Tufts gives my current #1 to Chicago.  Yes, I said current.

[Shooter McGavin]

Interesting and good thoughts Paul.  Putting Loras in at #9 IMHO would use your "almost interchangeable" top 4 and move Chicago to #1.  1-0 vs. the top 4.  2-0-1 vs. top ten and 5-0-1 vs. top 20 with four of the six on the road.

Yeah, I think teams like Loras, Cortland, and Montclair have been rated too low.  The St Joe's story is a great one, but even with decent wins over Gordon, Endicott and Bowdoin I can't see putting them as high as others have been doing. 

In terms of Chicago, I love their talent and would likely rank them #1 based purely on results.  I don't trust them yet, though, in a huge NCAA game versus Messiah or Tufts, and they were fortunate to get out of Calvin with a W.  I think Chicago has the best talent, or at least the most firepower, although that is arguable from the Messiah point of view, but I could see Tufts roughing up Lopez and Koh and taking them out of their games and frustrating them.

For me St. Joe's is a legitimate top 10 team and right now a top 5 team for a few reasons. 42 GF and 1GA. Undefeated 12-0-0 record with a few nice wins along the way including 11 shutouts. Last year they finished 19-0-2 with 20 shutouts and gave up 1 goal all season! Held Tufts scoreless in NCAA's and lost in PK's. In 2016 they were 15-2-6 with 17 shutouts and allowed just 10 goals. If this was just a one off season then sure they probably don't deserve the high ranking, but with this being the third year in a row that they are performing this way I think we should consider them a top 10 team. A very tough NCAA draw with Tufts so it's hard to fault them for that one last year but with the conference they are in they will never get a favorable draw. They have also went on the road and kept shutouts vs Gordon, Endicott, and Bowdoin this year. They have a big test coming up with undefeated Norwich who I think they will handle with ease. 

[truenorth]

In my view St. Joe's is a legitimately ranked team.  I saw the St. Joe's vs. Bowdoin game earlier in the season.  St. Joe's is compact and well organized defensively and they have a superior goal keeper.  When he graduates, I predict their performance level will drop off noticeably.

I didn't think St. Joe's was a big threat in the attacking end, and I actually thought Bowdoin outplayed them by a slight margin over the 90 minutes.  But St. Joe's converted on one of their only set piece opportunities, and that's all it takes...

[PaulNewman]

I get the argument for St Joe's.  I would just feel more comfortable if the Monks had another win versus an Oneonta, Amherst, Conn Coll, Rutgers-Camden, or Vassar or SLU.  I'd also be curious to see them play Endicott again.  There are also a handful of other teams with gaudy records and stats from weak conferences not ranked anywhere near where St Joe's is getting ranked.

Let's also not forget that Tufts outshot the Monks 24-4 with a 13-3 advantage on corners.  And Tufts struggled to score against most teams.

[rudy]

McCarty reaches 200 wins in his 10th season. https://gomessiah.com/news/2018/10/6/mens-soccer-falcons-handle-lions-behind-strong-second-half.aspx

200-13-11 . That's unreal.

[Mr.Right]

Yea St.Joe's is without question one of the best defensive teams in D3 and have a solid GK BUT against real tough opposition I still do not see them being able to score Goals. I honestly think their GK is solid but still to me he can be beaten low. He is not the quickest from what I have seen to get down to the ground so if teams would hit rockets low I think he can be beaten. Easier said than done as Tufts were not able to do that in 2017. Bowdoin is just as anemic as St.Joe's offensively so I do not see that as a true test of a solid team not being able to score against them. Whoever is giving St.Joe's the ONE FIRST PLACE vote every week in the D3Soccer.com poll is a travesty. They are not even close to being the #1 ranked team in the country and just shows the types of biases than can occur in these polls. I mean Lynchburg got a 1st Place vote and Messiah got two 1st Place Votes and neither comes close to matching Chicago's schedule and Away Wins.

[Mr.Right]

Also, do not be so sure St.Joe's will handle Norwich with ease. Norwich has two strikers that are fast and have some skill and they are very organized defensively as well. The game is at Norwich midweek and at some point St.Joe's win streak will come to an end in the conference. Also, Norwich will be all guns a blazin trying to knock them off. I see a very tight game and if Norwich can snag a quick 1st Half Goal they can sit compact and deep to hold St.Joe's off.

[rudy]

Yea St.Joe's is without question one of the best defensive teams in D3 and have a solid GK BUT against real tough opposition I still do not see them being able to score Goals. I honestly think their GK is solid but still to me he can be beaten low. He is not the quickest from what I have seen to get down to the ground so if teams would hit rockets low I think he can be beaten. Easier said than done as Tufts were not able to do that in 2017. Bowdoin is just as anemic as St.Joe's offensively so I do not see that as a true test of a solid team not being able to score against them. Whoever is giving St.Joe's the ONE FIRST PLACE vote every week in the D3Soccer.com poll is a travesty. They are not even close to being the #1 ranked team in the country and just shows the types of biases than can occur in these polls. I mean Lynchburg got a 1st Place vote and Messiah got two 1st Place Votes and neither comes close to matching Chicago's schedule and Away Wins.

I can see your point regarding St Joe's and Lynchburg but there is an argument for Messiah receiving votes. They are defending national champions and undefeated this year. Two ties for Messiah and one for Chicago. Last year we heard a lot about the vaunted Chicago offense but yet they did not score in the national semi final against NPU while Messiah scored 2 on that same team. Chicago had Koh and Lopez in that game so same key weapons as this year. Polls don't mean much anyway but you can't argue that it's crazy to give 2 votes to Messiah as #1 imo.  Hopefully this year Chicago and Messiah can meet head to head ..that would be entertaining game.