2018 Season - National Perspective

[blue_jays]

Yea St.Joe's is without question one of the best defensive teams in D3 and have a solid GK BUT against real tough opposition I still do not see them being able to score Goals. I honestly think their GK is solid but still to me he can be beaten low. He is not the quickest from what I have seen to get down to the ground so if teams would hit rockets low I think he can be beaten. Easier said than done as Tufts were not able to do that in 2017. Bowdoin is just as anemic as St.Joe's offensively so I do not see that as a true test of a solid team not being able to score against them. Whoever is giving St.Joe's the ONE FIRST PLACE vote every week in the D3Soccer.com poll is a travesty. They are not even close to being the #1 ranked team in the country and just shows the types of biases than can occur in these polls. I mean Lynchburg got a 1st Place vote and Messiah got two 1st Place Votes and neither comes close to matching Chicago's schedule and Away Wins.

I can see your point regarding St Joe's and Lynchburg but there is an argument for Messiah receiving votes. They are defending national champions and undefeated this year. Two ties for Messiah and one for Chicago. Last year we heard a lot about the vaunted Chicago offense but yet they did not score in the national semi final against NPU while Messiah scored 2 on that same team. Chicago had Koh and Lopez in that game so same key weapons as this year. Polls don't mean much anyway but you can't argue that it's crazy to give 2 votes to Messiah as #1 imo.  Hopefully this year Chicago and Messiah can meet head to head ..that would be entertaining game.

Actually UChicago did score in the semis against NPU. It just happened to be wiped off after the fact due to an egregious offsides call that was not even close to correct. The tape of that play will be enough to keep Chicago salty for years to come.

[PaulNewman]

Possibly a bit of a reaction to the ongoing self-congratulation.

I am surprised the site hasn't done a piece on Jay Martin reaching 700 wins.

I am generally a Messiah fan and fwiw put them #1 in my mock poll, in part because in addition to results to date this year I consider what I imagine would happen in a head to head matchup, and I am not fully convinced Chicago would beat Messiah or Tufts in an Elite 8 or Final Four game.

[OldNed]

Yea St.Joe's is without question one of the best defensive teams in D3 and have a solid GK BUT against real tough opposition I still do not see them being able to score Goals. I honestly think their GK is solid but still to me he can be beaten low. He is not the quickest from what I have seen to get down to the ground so if teams would hit rockets low I think he can be beaten. Easier said than done as Tufts were not able to do that in 2017. Bowdoin is just as anemic as St.Joe's offensively so I do not see that as a true test of a solid team not being able to score against them. Whoever is giving St.Joe's the ONE FIRST PLACE vote every week in the D3Soccer.com poll is a travesty. They are not even close to being the #1 ranked team in the country and just shows the types of biases than can occur in these polls. I mean Lynchburg got a 1st Place vote and Messiah got two 1st Place Votes and neither comes close to matching Chicago's schedule and Away Wins.

I may be the biggest St. Joe's homer on the boards, but I have to say I agree with Paul Newman and Mr. Right on this.  Yeah, they're a really good team and with a terrific record, but in a really lousy conference.  I've been worried that they haven't been scoring as much as I think they should be against teams like Anna Maria (45 shots against them and only 4 goals, 2 of which were PKs). I think Wednesday's game against Norwich is huge for St. Joe's and if they can weather the first 15 minutes where Norwich will come out really pumped up, then I like St. Joe's to win it.  That being said, I can see this being a 0-0 tie, as 3 of the last 4 matches with Norwich have turned out. 

Are they a top 10 team?  Maybe, but I can't see them as a #1 team right now with all the other good teams out there.

[Mr.Right]

Yea St.Joe's is without question one of the best defensive teams in D3 and have a solid GK BUT against real tough opposition I still do not see them being able to score Goals. I honestly think their GK is solid but still to me he can be beaten low. He is not the quickest from what I have seen to get down to the ground so if teams would hit rockets low I think he can be beaten. Easier said than done as Tufts were not able to do that in 2017. Bowdoin is just as anemic as St.Joe's offensively so I do not see that as a true test of a solid team not being able to score against them. Whoever is giving St.Joe's the ONE FIRST PLACE vote every week in the D3Soccer.com poll is a travesty. They are not even close to being the #1 ranked team in the country and just shows the types of biases than can occur in these polls. I mean Lynchburg got a 1st Place vote and Messiah got two 1st Place Votes and neither comes close to matching Chicago's schedule and Away Wins.

I can see your point regarding St Joe's and Lynchburg but there is an argument for Messiah receiving votes. They are defending national champions and undefeated this year. Two ties for Messiah and one for Chicago. Last year we heard a lot about the vaunted Chicago offense but yet they did not score in the national semi final against NPU while Messiah scored 2 on that same team. Chicago had Koh and Lopez in that game so same key weapons as this year. Polls don't mean much anyway but you can't argue that it's crazy to give 2 votes to Messiah as #1 imo.  Hopefully this year Chicago and Messiah can meet head to head ..that would be entertaining game.

Last year has nothing to do with this year...Messiah's schedule isn't even within sniffing range of Chicago's let alone the Wins on the Road that Chicago has. I mean a they have a Draw at Trinity, Win at North Park and a Win at Calvin....Am I missing something or does Messiah have anything close that resembles that

[PaulNewman]

OldNed, appreciate you chiming in.  I certainly don't want to minimize the St. Joe's story and what Shooter correctly points out is a 3 year run.  To do what they are doing at a school in Maine with 1000 students is incredible....and the Monks are definitely one of the big stories in D3 this year.  They definitely in my view deserve to be ranked.  IMHO somewhere in the #11-#16 range would be fair.  They will need to find ways to score against strong, NCAA tourney level competition.  They relied on PKs to get by Babson 2 years ago, and then failed on PKs with Tufts.  I do recall that despite the shot margin St. Joe's had a shot late in regulation or in one of the OTs that clearly had Mieth beat and hit the post or crossbar.

[PaulNewman]

To be fair to Messiah, 5-2 away at Montclair was impressive and also had a decent road win at Dickinson.  On the other hand, they had to scramble at home to get the draw with Cortland and also had to come back from being down 2-0 to draw away at JHU.  This is all nitpicking, though, IMO, and why I said the top 4 are basically interchangeable in terms of rankings AND prospects going forward.

[rudy]

Yea St.Joe's is without question one of the best defensive teams in D3 and have a solid GK BUT against real tough opposition I still do not see them being able to score Goals. I honestly think their GK is solid but still to me he can be beaten low. He is not the quickest from what I have seen to get down to the ground so if teams would hit rockets low I think he can be beaten. Easier said than done as Tufts were not able to do that in 2017. Bowdoin is just as anemic as St.Joe's offensively so I do not see that as a true test of a solid team not being able to score against them. Whoever is giving St.Joe's the ONE FIRST PLACE vote every week in the D3Soccer.com poll is a travesty. They are not even close to being the #1 ranked team in the country and just shows the types of biases than can occur in these polls. I mean Lynchburg got a 1st Place vote and Messiah got two 1st Place Votes and neither comes close to matching Chicago's schedule and Away Wins.

I can see your point regarding St Joe's and Lynchburg but there is an argument for Messiah receiving votes. They are defending national champions and undefeated this year. Two ties for Messiah and one for Chicago. Last year we heard a lot about the vaunted Chicago offense but yet they did not score in the national semi final against NPU while Messiah scored 2 on that same team. Chicago had Koh and Lopez in that game so same key weapons as this year. Polls don't mean much anyway but you can't argue that it's crazy to give 2 votes to Messiah as #1 imo.  Hopefully this year Chicago and Messiah can meet head to head ..that would be entertaining game.

Last year has nothing to do with this year...Messiah's schedule isn't even within sniffing range of Chicago's let alone the Wins on the Road that Chicago has. I mean a they have a Draw at Trinity, Win at North Park and a Win at Calvin....Am I missing something or does Messiah have anything close that resembles that

As far as polls go the.top 4 at start of the year are typically the final 4 from previous year. That's just how it is.  So the previous year does count for polls. Usually the order does not change until top teams start to lose. Messiah has not lost. Therefore it is not a stretch to vote them #1.  Agree Chicago has had tougher schedule. And probably deserve #1 ranking at the moment. But I don't think anyone voting Messiah #1 is way off base here. 

[PaulNewman]

Messiah hasn't lost, but they do have two draws, which generally count as blemishes for rankings and NCAA seedings purposes.  Chicago has had a marginally tougher schedule and only one blemish.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yea St.Joe's is without question one of the best defensive teams in D3 and have a solid GK BUT against real tough opposition I still do not see them being able to score Goals. I honestly think their GK is solid but still to me he can be beaten low. He is not the quickest from what I have seen to get down to the ground so if teams would hit rockets low I think he can be beaten. Easier said than done as Tufts were not able to do that in 2017. Bowdoin is just as anemic as St.Joe's offensively so I do not see that as a true test of a solid team not being able to score against them. Whoever is giving St.Joe's the ONE FIRST PLACE vote every week in the D3Soccer.com poll is a travesty. They are not even close to being the #1 ranked team in the country and just shows the types of biases than can occur in these polls. I mean Lynchburg got a 1st Place vote and Messiah got two 1st Place Votes and neither comes close to matching Chicago's schedule and Away Wins.

I can see your point regarding St Joe's and Lynchburg but there is an argument for Messiah receiving votes. They are defending national champions and undefeated this year. Two ties for Messiah and one for Chicago. Last year we heard a lot about the vaunted Chicago offense but yet they did not score in the national semi final against NPU while Messiah scored 2 on that same team. Chicago had Koh and Lopez in that game so same key weapons as this year. Polls don't mean much anyway but you can't argue that it's crazy to give 2 votes to Messiah as #1 imo.  Hopefully this year Chicago and Messiah can meet head to head ..that would be entertaining game.

Actually UChicago did score in the semis against NPU. It just happened to be wiped off after the fact due to an egregious offsides call that was not even close to correct. The tape of that play will be enough to keep Chicago salty for years to come.

This is very accurate. Chicago looked to be on the way to winning that game. While the scoreboard didn't show a goal... they controlled that game and I dare say dominated it. That goal should have counted and I think Chicago would have been in the title game as a result.

Unfortunate how that turned out.

[NEsoccerfan]

Messiah hasn't lost, but they do have two draws, which generally count as blemishes for rankings and NCAA seedings purposes.  Chicago has had a marginally tougher schedule and only one blemish.

Marginally better? I'm sorry, but that's laughable.

Using the current D3 rankings as a basis, here's a comparison:

Chicago
#2 Calvin - Win
#7 Trinity - Tie
#10 Emory - Win
#12 North Park - Win
#14 Rochester - Win
#21 Loras - Win
Chicago Record v. top 25: 5-0-1 with 4 wins against the top 15

Upcoming games:
#13 Carnegie Mellon
#23 Case Western

Messiah
#17 Cortland State - Tie
#19 Montclair State - Win
#24 Johns Hopkins - Tie
Messiah Record v. top 25: 1-0-2 with 0 wins against the top 15

Upcoming games:
#18 Lycoming

Based on the current rankings, Chicago will have played 8 ranked teams compared to Messiah's 4. Chicago will have played 5 teams in the top 15 compared to Messiah's 0.

While I'm in no way arguing that Chicago is the better team, to say that Chicago's schedule is marginally better, or to say that Messiah deserves to be ranked ahead of them is laughable.

[TyWebb]

Messiah hasn't lost, but they do have two draws, which generally count as blemishes for rankings and NCAA seedings purposes.  Chicago has had a marginally tougher schedule and only one blemish.

Marginally better? I'm sorry, but that's laughable.

Using the current D3 rankings as a basis, here's a comparison:

Chicago
#2 Calvin - Win
#7 Trinity - Tie
#10 Emory - Win
#12 North Park - Win
#14 Rochester - Win
#21 Loras - Win
Chicago Record v. top 25: 5-0-1 with 4 wins against the top 15

Upcoming games:
#13 Carnegie Mellon
#23 Case Western

Messiah
#17 Cortland State - Tie
#19 Montclair State - Win
#24 Johns Hopkins - Win
Messiah Record v. top 25: 2-0-1 with 0 wins against the top 15

Upcoming games:
#18 Lycoming

Based on the current rankings, Chicago will have played 8 ranked teams compared to Messiah's 4. Chicago will have played 5 teams in the top 15 compared to Messiah's 0.

While I'm in no way arguing that Chicago is the better team, to say that Chicago's schedule is marginally better, or to say that Messiah deserves to be ranked ahead of them is laughable.

Just a minor correction. Messiah tied Johns Hopkins 2-2 after falling behind in the match 2-0. It was one of the more entertaining games I've watched this season.

[PaulNewman]

Messiah hasn't lost, but they do have two draws, which generally count as blemishes for rankings and NCAA seedings purposes.  Chicago has had a marginally tougher schedule and only one blemish.

Marginally better? I'm sorry, but that's laughable.

Using the current D3 rankings as a basis, here's a comparison:

Chicago
#2 Calvin - Win
#7 Trinity - Tie
#10 Emory - Win
#12 North Park - Win
#14 Rochester - Win
#21 Loras - Win
Chicago Record v. top 25: 5-0-1 with 4 wins against the top 15

Upcoming games:
#13 Carnegie Mellon
#23 Case Western

Messiah
#17 Cortland State - Tie
#19 Montclair State - Win
#24 Johns Hopkins - Win
Messiah Record v. top 25: 2-0-1 with 0 wins against the top 15

Upcoming games:
#18 Lycoming

Based on the current rankings, Chicago will have played 8 ranked teams compared to Messiah's 4. Chicago will have played 5 teams in the top 15 compared to Messiah's 0.

While I'm in no way arguing that Chicago is the better team, to say that Chicago's schedule is marginally better, or to say that Messiah deserves to be ranked ahead of them is laughable.

LOL.  Fine.  I retract the word 'marginal.'  Was just trying to point out that Messiah has played some good teams, and other than Calvin, if you put aside the rankings, Montclair, Cortland and JHU stack up pretty well against the others you listed for Chicago, with Lycoming certainly on par with at least a couple of those listed as well.  Also didn't say Messiah deserved to be ahead of Chicago in the "official" rankings as I explained with my own mock poll. 

And just to agree with you more clearly, by the end of the season Chicago will have played a substantially tougher schedule than Messiah.

[PaulNewman]

NEsoccerfan, I must feel bad...I will bolster your thesis even further.  I wonder if Chicago will flirt with the highest SoS in D3 history.  The away games with Calvin and Trinity, teams that will win 19-20 with only 1-2 losses, Loras who likely will end up with only a couple of losses, and the others with very good win percentages with no teams with very poor records should push Chicago close to or over .700.

Uh oh...very sloppy today.  I missed Carroll and Elmhurst at a combined 1-21-2.  And a middling Carthage still to play.  So maybe no SoS record but a very impressive schedule nonetheless which of course includes the UAA gauntlet.

[NEsoccerfan]

NEsoccerfan, I must feel bad...I will bolster your thesis even further.  I wonder if Chicago will flirt with the highest SoS in D3 history.  The away games with Calvin and Trinity, teams that will win 19-20 with only 1-2 losses, Loras who likely will end up with only a couple of losses, and the others with very good win percentages with no teams with very poor records should push Chicago close to or over .700.

Uh oh...very sloppy today.  I missed Carroll and Elmhurst at a combined 1-21-2.  And a middling Carthage still to play.  So maybe no SoS record but a very impressive schedule nonetheless which of course includes the UAA gauntlet.

After rereading my post, it came off as quite snarky/rude. My apologies. I'm actually not even a Chicago supporter at all (full disclosure: Brandeis is my team, so I'm currently cheering against Chicago), but I have had the opportunity to watch them quite often over the last few years.

Messiah is undoubtedly the best program in D3 history, and arguably the best program over the last 20, 10, and 5 year spans. However, rankings should be based on this year's results alone, and Chicago has the better schedule/results/resume.

I really do hope these two teams meet one another in the tournament, as it has the potential to go down as one of the best match-ups in the last number of years.

[Mr.Right]

Well Messiah lost their 2 First Place Votes this week and Chicago has racked up all of them except that one pesky biased voter who keeps giving St.Joe's(ME) the one first place vote that is not deserved.