2018 Season - National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Game alert:  don't forget Redlands @ Claremont-Mudd-Scripps in a conference and West region showdown at 10:00 EST.

NESCAC fans will be dialed into Colby @ Bates at 8:00 EST, so that will make for a nice "sea to shining sea" doubleheader.

[stancoville]

And speaking of Chicago, are fans/followers of the Maroons concerned about the two losses, or are the losses viewed as helpful in terms of getting the squad focused down the stretch?  They clearly are already in the tournament, even if they should falter further in the last three UAA tilts.

I mentioned a week or two ago that I thought they might be going too conservative in some games, absorbing too much pressure with a one goal lead against, iirc, Calvin and more recently CMU.

I would not fancy their chances in a rematch with Calvin, as I think the Calvin coach after two looks at Chicago would have a pretty solid plan for Lopez and Koh.  Also would not favor Chicago at this point versus Messiah or Tufts.  And I would guess North Park wouldn't mind another crack, although North Park and Chicago might well end up in different sectionals.

I am a UChicago alumnus and although not close to the team, I would guess that they are not at all worried. It is tough to have 3 big UAA games left, but they are in the tourney and have to be confident in their ability to win big games. They have a lot of experience and coach Babst is a great coach who keeps them relaxed and confident.

All of the games you listed would be great matchups and tough to pick a 'favorite' in any of them, especially when they're happening in the tournament. I think just about any team will struggle to shut down all of Chicago's offensive options (much more than Koh + Lopez), and having a couple games of lacking a finishing touch is to be expected. Better they come now than in a month!

I'm looking forward to seeing how this team comes down the stretch as I know they all feel like they should have won a national title last year and a lot of those guys are back.

[PaulNewman]

Gonna be an interesting week.....St Joe's at 12....still no Lynchburg and W&L drops out....every UAA ranked and fairly high except for Wash U.

[Christan Shirk]

NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 24, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Tufts	12-0-2	0.599	5-0-2	12-0-2	2
2.	Connecticut College	11-1-2	0.596	4-0-2	11-1-2	1
3.	Babson	9-2-4	0.592	2-2-1	9-2-4	8
4.	Amherst	9-3-1	0.609	1-3-1	9-3-1	4
5.	Middlebury	9-2-3	0.568	2-1-1	9-2-3	7
6.	Bowdoin	9-3-2	0.564	2-2-2	9-3-2	--
7.	Williams	8-4-2	0.573	3-2-0	8-4-2	10
8.	Brandeis	7-5-2	0.652	4-3-1	7-5-2	9
9.	Endicott	9-5-2	0.608	1-4-0	9-5-2	5
10.	Roger Williams	14-3-0	0.555	0-1-0	14-3-0	3
11.	Springfield	11-3-1	0.567	0-2-0	11-3-1	6
12.	St. Joseph's (Maine)	16-0-0	0.495	1-0-0	16-0-0	11

EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 24, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Rochester	11-1-1	0.583	3-1-0	11-1-1	1
2.	Cortland State	14-1-2	0.570	3-1-2	14-1-2	2
3.	St. Lawrence	10-2-2	0.556	2-1-1	10-2-2	4
4.	New York University	11-3-0	0.549	4-3-0	11-3-0	3
5.	Vassar	9-4-0	0.609	1-2-0	9-4-0	6
6.	New Paltz State	11-5-1	0.577	2-2-0	11-5-1	7
7.	Oneonta State	9-4-4	0.591	1-4-1	9-4-4	5
8.	Stevens	14-2-1	0.524	3-2-0	14-2-1	--

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 24, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Messiah	14-0-2	0.592	5-0-2	14-0-2	1
2.	Franklin and Marshall	12-2-2	0.611	5-2-1	12-2-2	4
3.	Johns Hopkins	12-3-1	0.594	3-3-1	12-3-1	2
4.	Eastern	13-2-1	0.550	3-0-1	13-2-1	3
5.	Haverford	9-4-0	0.597	3-2-0	9-4-0	6
6.	Dickinson	10-4-2	0.584	2-3-1	10-4-2	5
7.	Lebanon Valley	9-4-1	0.564	0-3-1	9-4-1	8
8.	Lycoming	13-2-1	0.531	0-2-0	13-2-1	9
9.	Swarthmore	9-6-1	0.589	1-3-1	9-6-1	10
10.	Gettysburg	7-6-1	0.589	2-5-0	7-6-1	7

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 24, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Montclair State	14-1-2	0.555	2-1-1	14-1-2	1
2.	Mary Washington	11-1-3	0.587	1-1-1	11-1-3	2
3.	Oglethorpe	10-2-0	0.564	1-2-0	11-2-0	--
4.	Rowan	11-5-0	0.617	2-3-0	11-5-0	4
5.	Emory	9-5-1	0.625	3-3-0	9-5-1	5
6.	Rutgers-Camden	12-4-2	0.597	1-3-0	12-4-2	3
7.	St. Mary's (Md.)	10-2-3	0.555	2-2-0	11-2-3	--
8.	William Paterson	11-5-1	0.570	3-4-0	11-5-1	--

[Christan Shirk]

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 24, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Case Western Reserve	11-2-1	0.600	4-2-1	11-2-1	1
2.	Kenyon	12-1-2	0.592	1-1-2	12-1-2	2
3.	Carnegie Mellon	9-3-2	0.633	2-2-2	9-3-2	5
4.	Capital	12-3-0	0.572	2-3-0	12-3-0	3
5.	John Carroll	10-4-1	0.604	3-3-1	10-4-1	6
6.	Ohio Wesleyan	11-2-2	0.556	1-2-1	11-2-2	4
7.	Mount Union	10-3-1	0.524	2-1-0	10-3-1	7
8.	Ohio Northern	10-5-1	0.550	1-4-0	10-5-1	8

CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 24, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Chicago	12-2-1	0.647	8-1-1	12-2-1	1
2.	Calvin	13-1-0	0.572	4-1-0	14-1-0	2
3.	Hope	10-2-1	0.561	2-1-0	12-2-1	3
4.	Millikin	8-5-1	0.549	2-2-0	8-5-1	4
5.	North Park	13-2-0	0.534	1-2-0	13-2-0	6
6.	Carthage	8-7-1	0.578	2-4-1	9-7-1	--
7.	Wheaton (Ill.)	9-5-1	0.537	3-2-0	9-5-1	--

NORTH REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 24, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Gustavus Adolphus	10-1-1	0.566	2-1-1	12-1-1	1
2.	Luther	13-3-1	0.563	3-1-0	13-3-1	2
3.	UW-Platteville	11-1-2	0.551	1-0-0	11-1-2	3
4.	St. Thomas	12-3-1	0.583	1-3-1	12-3-1	4
5.	Augsburg	9-2-2	0.549	1-1-1	10-2-2	6
6.	Carleton	11-1-2	0.523	2-1-2	12-1-2	5
7.	St. Norbert	14-0-1	0.527	1-0-0	14-0-1	--

WEST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 24, 2018

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Trinity (Texas)	12-1-1	0.510	1-0-1	13-1-1	3
2.	Redlands	12-2-0	0.526	0-1-0	12-3-0	1
3.	Mary Hardin-Baylor	10-3-1	0.547	0-1-0	10-3-1	2
4.	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	12-2-0	0.503	2-0-0	13-2-0	5
5.	Texas-Dallas	10-1-2	0.505	1-0-0	10-1-2	6
6.	University of Dallas	7-5-0	0.524	2-2-0	8-5-0	--

[PaulNewman]

Any predictions on # of bids for UAA?  Every single school is still "alive" IMO heading into the final and critical 3 game UAA stretch.  All are ranked except Wash U, and given how the Central rankings look one could easily see Wash U being ranked by the end.  Let's assume Chicago gets the AQ...Rochester and CWRU look like locks even on the chance that they lose all 3 remaining games.  CMU may need a win and at least a draw.  One win for NYU might do it.  Brandeis probably needs at least 2 wins and a draw.  Wash U probably needs 2 wins.  Emory perhaps can go 0-3 in the last 3 and still stay at #4 or #5 in South Atlantic, but for real maybe a win and a draw would work for the Eagles.  I'm going to say AQ plus five Pool Cs, but I don't think six Pool Cs would be shocking.

For the NESCAC, Tufts and Conn Coll are locks.  Amherst and Bowdoin probably both need a win, although maybe Amherst would survive as they gain a ranked win with Brandeis (presuming Brandeis doesn't fall out) but would pick up another ranked loss if lose to Bowdoin.  I'm not sure Midd is in without another win and no doubt Williams almost certainly needs at least one more win.  Hamilton also might have a pulse in they can get to NESCAC final (which would not shock me either).  Assuming Babson can get the NEWMAC AQ, and given the relative weakness in the region and the St. Joe's ranking situation, I'm going to guess that NESCAC gets the AQ plus four Pool Cs.  Three Pool Cs seems like the smarter choice, and of course you can lose out to other regions, but I just don't see who is going knock the NESCACs out of there rankings spots in New England besides Babson.

Btw, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps took the nightcap last night 1-0 over Redlands.

[Mr.Right]

The UAA is actually interesting right now because Chicago is not a lock to win the title and are in a bit of a funk the past week or so. Brandeis is 7-6-2 and I think they need to go 10-6-2 and Win all 3. However, if they do win all 3 they will probably Win the UAA title. Brandeis just has to many question marks on the field right now and I do not expect them to Win these last 3 UAA Road games. I think Emory and CMU are teetering on the bubble right now. CMU has a solid resume with a solid SOS so they should be ok with a 1-1-1 finish BUT Emory IMO has a ton of work to do especially if the NJAC gets turned upside down in the NJAC Tourney because a team like Ramapo should and could get ranked with a couple Wins and their SOS will certainly rise not to mention Wins v Ranked. Some of these NJAC teams could pass Emory in the rankings especially if Emory goes 1-2-0. I think Emory needs to go 3-0-0. Case, Chicago and UR are locks even with total collapses to finish the year. NYU still has work because if they were to go 0-2-1 to finish or 0-3-0 I do not see how they get in.

[PaulNewman]

Right, but NYU is sitting at #4 in the East rankings and with even one more win would get to 5 ranked wins (assuming Rowan and New Paltz stay ranked and the others).  Don't know if they can jump SLU but if SLU and Cortland ins their AQs and/or UR they might have a chance with one win or one win and a draw.  IMO Brandeis might get in with 2-0-1 depending on how the NESCAC tourney shakes out.  And if Emory wins two games they are almost certain to get in.  CMU is very high in rankings in Great Lakes and have a good shot as long as they don't go 0-3.  The UAA will be fascinating to follow this weekend and next.

A little tangential, but why is Hamilton in New England instead of East?  Is UAA the only conference with teams slotted to different regions?

[Gregory Sager]

A little tangential, but why is Hamilton in New England instead of East?  Is UAA the only conference with teams slotted to different regions?

You basically answered your own question. Earlier in this decade, D3 decided to consolidate all of its leagues within one region apiece, with the obvious exception of the UAA. I think that it was an all-sports decision (Dave would know for sure), because I saw it happen in other sports simultaneously.

[PaulNewman]

A little tangential, but why is Hamilton in New England instead of East?  Is UAA the only conference with teams slotted to different regions?

You basically answered your own question. Earlier in this decade, D3 decided to consolidate all of its leagues within one region apiece, with the obvious exception of the UAA. I think that it was an all-sports decision (Dave would know for sure), because I saw it happen in other sports simultaneously.

So it was in that context that Centre moved from Great Lakes to South Atlantic, I presume.

[Mr.Right]

Right, but NYU is sitting at #4 in the East rankings and with even one more win would get to 5 ranked wins (assuming Rowan and New Paltz stay ranked and the others).  Don't know if they can jump SLU but if SLU and Cortland ins their AQs and/or UR they might have a chance with one win or one win and a draw.  IMO Brandeis might get in with 2-0-1 depending on how the NESCAC tourney shakes out.  And if Emory wins two games they are almost certain to get in.  CMU is very high in rankings in Great Lakes and have a good shot as long as they don't go 0-3.  The UAA will be fascinating to follow this weekend and next.

A little tangential, but why is Hamilton in New England instead of East?  Is UAA the only conference with teams slotted to different regions?

Yes...but if NYU finishes 0-2-1 or 0-3-0 you are correct their SOS will be very high BUT their Record v Ranked will now go to say 4-6-0 or 4-5-1 and actually would look alot like the team you mentioned yesterday in another conversation Wheaton MA in 2016. Winning % and blemishes very close to Wheaton in 2016 but SOS probably a bit higher and a ton of ranked Wins but also a ton of ranked losses. IDK...If I were NYU I would try to go 2-1-0 or 2-0-1 and they will be a lock and probably a lock to host a 1st Round Pod....

[Gregory Sager]

A little tangential, but why is Hamilton in New England instead of East?  Is UAA the only conference with teams slotted to different regions?

You basically answered your own question. Earlier in this decade, D3 decided to consolidate all of its leagues within one region apiece, with the obvious exception of the UAA. I think that it was an all-sports decision (Dave would know for sure), because I saw it happen in other sports simultaneously.

So it was in that context that Centre moved from Great Lakes to South Atlantic, I presume.

Yep.

[Buck O.]

Does anyone know how the tiebreaker to determine the AQ for the UAA works?  If anyone can trip up Chicago, there's a good chance it will come into play.

[blooter442]

Does anyone know how the tiebreaker to determine the AQ for the UAA works?  If anyone can trip up Chicago, there's a good chance it will come into play.

The first tiebreaker I believe is H2H results against the other champion(s). Six years ago there was a four-way tie between Brandeis, CMU, Emory, and WashU, all teams were 4-2-1. Brandeis beat both Emory and WashU but lost at home to CMU and I believe CMU beat both of those teams as well. So, CMU got the AQ and the other 3 (plus Rochester) got Pool Cs.

[Buck O.]

Does anyone know how the tiebreaker to determine the AQ for the UAA works?  If anyone can trip up Chicago, there's a good chance it will come into play.

The first tiebreaker I believe is H2H results against the other champion(s). Six years ago there was a four-way tie between Brandeis, CMU, Emory, and WashU, all teams were 4-2-1. Brandeis beat both Emory and WashU but lost at home to CMU and I believe CMU beat both of those teams as well. So, CMU got the AQ and the other 3 (plus Rochester) got Pool Cs.

It won't matter for most of the UAA teams, because if they finish well enough to tie for the UAA title,  a Pool C slot is a lock.  But it may matter for WashU and Deis.

What about the second tiebreaker?  E.g., if WashU and Rochester were each to win out, they'd be tied atop the UAA, and the H2H result was also a tie.