2018 Season - National Perspective

[Mr.Right]

There has been some back and forth and comments about whether coaches understand the process, might be upset with the cmtes, etc relative to Regional Rankings/Pool Cs.......

Adrian Dubois, St Joe's coach IS ON THE NEW ENGLAND cmte!  Serpone from Amherst is the chair as has been mentioned for New England.  In addition to Dubois from St. Joe's, members in New England include Shapiro from Tufts, Margolis from Brandeis, and the WPI coach.

I will say that reading the names on the cmtes can cause a chill, especially when you see names of coaches that you have a hunch really don't like your team's coach and/or are coaches of teams very likely to be in the middle of very close calls with your team.

NEW ENGLAND REGION
Justin Serpone, chair Amherst NESCAC
Jake Beverlin Massachusetts Boston Little East
Adrian Dubois Saint Joseph's (Maine) Great Northeast
Gabe Margolis Brandeis University
Bettiann Michalik Fitchburg State MASCAC
Bill Maddock Newbury College NECC
Josh Shapiro Tufts NESCAC
Billy Shannon Maine Maritime North Atlantic
KiKi Jacobs Roger Williams Commonwealth Coast
Brian Kelley WPI NEWMAC

I have been saying that for years...It used to be a mix of Head Coaches/AD"s/Admin etc on these committee's IIRC but now it looks to be all Head Coaches or most. I think we can understand now why RWU continues to be ranked and Salve Regina has not gotten a sniff. On the flip though WPI is not ranked and they have not lost a game in a month and Springfield is so I guess an argument can be made for both sides.

[Falconer]

MEN'S SOCCER

MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Kenneth Andrews, chair Middle Atlantic Middle Atlantic Conferences
Craig Appleby Johns Hopkins Centennial
Tim Hollenback Neumann Atlantic East
Kyle Keltner Clarks Summit Colonial States
Joe Machado Cobleskill State NEAC
Matthew Pivirotto University of Scranton Landmark
Casey Moore Alvernia MAC Commonwealth
Mark Bassett King's (Pennsylvania) MAC Freedom

Until I saw this information, I didn't realize that Falcon alum Mark Bassett has been coaching for many years, but he has: https://kingscollegeathletics.com/coaches.aspx?rc=904&path=msoc

Messiah never plays King's, and I don't recall ever hearing that Bassett went into coaching. Just one more name to add the list of ex-Falcons in college coaching.

[Mr.Right]

So in 1 year Hartwick has gone from playing D1 to D3. Every player besides 1 transferred out but the Head Coach stayed for the ride. They go 0-12-0 in D3 while scoring 4 goals and giving up 53 and are getting ready to close out their season v Bryant & Stratton......It would be an understatement to say the Head Coach has now officially been thru the ringer and spat out. In all seriousness Hartwick should be able to compete in a couple years especially in that weak conference.

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman's Own Top 25 (October 28th)

1)  Messiah
2)  Calvin
3)  Tufts (would have dropped 2-3 spots but don't see teams to bounce Jumbos lower)
4)  Montclair St

5)  CWRU
6)  Chicago
7)  Cortland St.
8)  North Park

9)  Kenyon
10) Rochester
11) Trinity (TX)
12) St Joseph's (ME) (the hype cools a bit after two consecutive fairly nervy 1-0 wins over average to below average competition)

13) Johns Hopkins
14) Amherst
15) Mary Washington
16) SLU

17) Stevens
18) Connecticut College
19) Haverford
20) Franklin & Marshall

21) Capital
22) Washington & Lee
23) Lynchburg
24) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
25) Oglethorpe/Eastern/Gustavus Adolphus [TIE]

RV -- Middlebury; OWU; Lycoming; Hope; St Thomas; Carleton; John Carroll; Ramapo; Carnegie Mellon; Ithaca; Luther; Loras; Babson; Redlands; Texas-Dallas; Sailisbury; Williams; Bowdoin; St Norbert; Ithaca; Mt. Union; Salve Regina; NYU; Grove City; Springfield; WPI

[rudy]

 Paul you have been rather quiet regarding Kenyon this year. They look to be having a very good season. Could this be the year they go to the final 4? Do they have what it takes?  Will they wrestle the title from Messiah and the NESCAC for the first time since 2011. Perhaps a UAA side will bring it home. Should be interesting tournament.

[PaulNewman]

Paul you have been rather quiet regarding Kenyon this year. They look to be having a very good season. Could this be the year they go to the final 4? Do they have what it takes?  Will they wrestle the title from Messiah and the NESCAC for the first time since 2011. Perhaps a UAA side will bring it home. Should be interesting tournament.

Surpassing expectations is preferable to not meeting them, and I usually prefer to see Kenyon in a slight underdog role rather than slight favorite.  I honestly don't know what to make of Kenyon this year.  I give a ton of credit to Brown as my sense is that this is his best coaching job, with a team that IMO is weaker than 2014, 2015, and 2016, and I have a hard time thinking they are as good or better than 2017 because of Myers graduating and Carmona not returning. Maybe they are closer to the 2013 squad that really was the start of the current six year stretch. That said, I am hoping I am wrong, and the Lords do have an interesting mix of a very good senior class (unfortunately minus Carmona) and a bunch of talented frosh with a few solid sophomores.  I will give a nod to the senior class whose record thus far of 69-9-6 over their four years probably stacks up well against anyone other than Messiah or Calvin....and they've won 4 straight NCAC regular season titles and been within a hair of the Final Four twice.  Brown has played the younger guys a ton and hopefully they now have enough experience to perform in bigger games.  They also cannot make any of the mistakes they made versus CWRU (got burned) and against OWU (where they were fortunate to not get burned).  Bottom line is that I suspect Kenyon could beat anyone in the country in one game but also lose to a far greater number of teams than could the truly serious top 5-6 contenders.  Neither a 1st or 2nd round exit OR a good run would surprise me, assuming they get a bid.  The Pool Cs are going quickly.  Tufts and Conn Coll already, plus two out of three among Chicago, CWRU and Rochester, and all three of those if Wash U somehow wins the AQ (which maybe they can't after the draw with NYU).  Anyway, at least four Pool Cs are already definitely gone. 

To get back to your question, IMO there are a very limited number of teams that can displace Messiah or Tufts/NESCAC, and an interesting bet would be Messiah/Tufts versus the field.  The few true contenders IMO are obviously Calvin and Chicago.  I would give North Park a chance as well because they've been there.  Maybe CWRU.  Maybe Trinity (TX).  A real darkhorse (if they get in) might be St. Thomas as they just had a Final Four and Elite 8 back to back.  A good draw could open up for another team....maybe like a Montclair or Cortland....or Amherst...but I really don't see any other teams that are going to string together 4-6 wins in the tournament.

P.S.  I might add Johns Hopkins to the darkhorse list.  I like teams that already have played a Messiah, Tufts, Calvin, Chicago, etc and know what to expect and can come right out of the gate with the right mentality.

[TheGreenKnight920]

Paul Newman's Own Top 25 (October 28th)

1)  Messiah
2)  Calvin
3)  Tufts (would have dropped 2-3 spots but don't see teams to bounce Jumbos lower)
4)  Montclair St

5)  CWRU
6)  Chicago
7)  Cortland St.
8)  North Park

9)  Kenyon
10) Rochester
11) Trinity (TX)
12) St Joseph's (ME) (the hype cools a bit after two consecutive fairly nervy 1-0 wins over average to below average competition)

13) Johns Hopkins
14) Amherst
15) Mary Washington
16) SLU

17) Stevens
18) Connecticut College
19) Haverford
20) Franklin & Marshall

21) Capital
22) Washington & Lee
23) Lynchburg
24) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
25) Oglethorpe/Eastern/Gustavus Adolphus [TIE]

RV -- Middlebury; OWU; Lycoming; Hope; St Thomas; Carleton; John Carroll; Ramapo; Carnegie Mellon; Ithaca; Luther; Loras; Babson; Redlands; Texas-Dallas; Sailisbury; Williams; Bowdoin; St Norbert; Ithaca; Mt. Union; Salve Regina; NYU; Grove City; Springfield; WPI

I'm admittedly a bit of a homer, but no SNC even in the top 25? They are undefeated (one of only 4 remaining, I believe) and have thrashed through their entire slate. UWP, Knox, Cornell and MSOE are all quality wins for them. There's only so much you can control in terms of conference strength of schedule.

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman's Own Top 25 (October 28th)

1)  Messiah
2)  Calvin
3)  Tufts (would have dropped 2-3 spots but don't see teams to bounce Jumbos lower)
4)  Montclair St

5)  CWRU
6)  Chicago
7)  Cortland St.
8)  North Park

9)  Kenyon
10) Rochester
11) Trinity (TX)
12) St Joseph's (ME) (the hype cools a bit after two consecutive fairly nervy 1-0 wins over average to below average competition)

13) Johns Hopkins
14) Amherst
15) Mary Washington
16) SLU

17) Stevens
18) Connecticut College
19) Haverford
20) Franklin & Marshall

21) Capital
22) Washington & Lee
23) Lynchburg
24) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
25) Oglethorpe/Eastern/Gustavus Adolphus [TIE]

RV -- Middlebury; OWU; Lycoming; Hope; St Thomas; Carleton; John Carroll; Ramapo; Carnegie Mellon; Ithaca; Luther; Loras; Babson; Redlands; Texas-Dallas; Sailisbury; Williams; Bowdoin; St Norbert; Ithaca; Mt. Union; Salve Regina; NYU; Grove City; Springfield; WPI

I'm admittedly a bit of a homer, but no SNC even in the top 25? They are undefeated (one of only 4 remaining, I believe) and have thrashed through their entire slate. UWP, Knox, Cornell and MSOE are all quality wins for them. There's only so much you can control in terms of conference strength of schedule.

Congrats on a great season!  When I do these, I get to the last 3-4 slots and have about 10-12 teams that could go in there.  St. Norbert obviously is deserving, but then I have to think of which team I would take out to put them in.  Same with Salve Regina. 

How do you see St Norbert comparing to Gustavus, Carleton, Loras, Hope, etc?

[daddyEzK]

Paul Newman's Own Top 25 (October 28th)

1)  Messiah
2)  Calvin
3)  Tufts (would have dropped 2-3 spots but don't see teams to bounce Jumbos lower)
4)  Montclair St

5)  CWRU
6)  Chicago
7)  Cortland St.
8)  North Park

9)  Kenyon
10) Rochester
11) Trinity (TX)
12) St Joseph's (ME) (the hype cools a bit after two consecutive fairly nervy 1-0 wins over average to below average competition)

13) Johns Hopkins
14) Amherst
15) Mary Washington
16) SLU

17) Stevens
18) Connecticut College
19) Haverford
20) Franklin & Marshall

21) Capital
22) Washington & Lee
23) Lynchburg
24) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
25) Oglethorpe/Eastern/Gustavus Adolphus [TIE]

RV -- Middlebury; OWU; Lycoming; Hope; St Thomas; Carleton; John Carroll; Ramapo; Carnegie Mellon; Ithaca; Luther; Loras; Babson; Redlands; Texas-Dallas; Sailisbury; Williams; Bowdoin; St Norbert; Ithaca; Mt. Union; Salve Regina; NYU; Grove City; Springfield; WPI

Happy to see Haverford on the list and especially having them listed ahead of F&M.  F&M drawing McDaniels, when seeding in the conference tournament was on the line, should not be rewarded.  Hope the NCAA poll this week agrees with you.

[TheGreenKnight920]

Paul Newman's Own Top 25 (October 28th)

1)  Messiah
2)  Calvin
3)  Tufts (would have dropped 2-3 spots but don't see teams to bounce Jumbos lower)
4)  Montclair St

5)  CWRU
6)  Chicago
7)  Cortland St.
8)  North Park

9)  Kenyon
10) Rochester
11) Trinity (TX)
12) St Joseph's (ME) (the hype cools a bit after two consecutive fairly nervy 1-0 wins over average to below average competition)

13) Johns Hopkins
14) Amherst
15) Mary Washington
16) SLU

17) Stevens
18) Connecticut College
19) Haverford
20) Franklin & Marshall

21) Capital
22) Washington & Lee
23) Lynchburg
24) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
25) Oglethorpe/Eastern/Gustavus Adolphus [TIE]

RV -- Middlebury; OWU; Lycoming; Hope; St Thomas; Carleton; John Carroll; Ramapo; Carnegie Mellon; Ithaca; Luther; Loras; Babson; Redlands; Texas-Dallas; Sailisbury; Williams; Bowdoin; St Norbert; Ithaca; Mt. Union; Salve Regina; NYU; Grove City; Springfield; WPI

I'm admittedly a bit of a homer, but no SNC even in the top 25? They are undefeated (one of only 4 remaining, I believe) and have thrashed through their entire slate. UWP, Knox, Cornell and MSOE are all quality wins for them. There's only so much you can control in terms of conference strength of schedule.

Congrats on a great season!  When I do these, I get to the last 3-4 slots and have about 10-12 teams that could go in there.  St. Norbert obviously is deserving, but then I have to think of which team I would take out to put them in.  Same with Salve Regina. 

How do you see St Norbert comparing to Gustavus, Carleton, Loras, Hope, etc?

Not really a lot of common opponents between many of these teams and SNC, except for Loras, who has lost a couple games to teams SNC has beaten. Eastern, for example, has also lost some questionable games, and plays in a conference that I would at least consider the MWC to be on par with, would be a team to swap out SNC with. I agree, though, that there are many worthy teams to slot into this top 25, but I think SNC, and even Gusty probably deserve to be in there.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Per how committees are made up, understand a few things:

- The committees must have a minimum of 50% representation by administrators. There is a loophole that an admin can also be a coach, but they will be "designated" one or the other in terms of numbers.
- A committee member who is a coach may NOT discuss, lobby, or anything else when it comes to his team. They have to remove themselves from the call (mute at best) if and when their team is being discussed. Their "designation" is not relevant. If they are designated as an admin for committee numbers, but they are a head coach of a team ... they cannot participate. This also is in play for at-large selections and to some degree bracketing on the national committee (exact roles in terms of bracketing are determined on a committee by committee [liaison by liaison] basis; some of them completely removed, others have them working on something else).
- After the conference calls take place, the vote is done online through an NCAA system. It is not a straw poll on the call anymore. So one person's voice can be ignored if others want. They can vote how they feel. Some regional committee chairs want members to explain their votes (written down) so they can see the reasoning and explain it to the national committee if necessary.
- Ultimately, the regional committees are only advisory in nature. The National Committee can take or leave their recommendations. The National Committees will make any changes they see fit and relay the reasons why back to the regional committees.

Sure, there are coaches who don't get a long or like each other, but in my experience that doesn't go very far in committee conversations. That individual will either be singled out for their thinking and told to cease ... or removed from the committee (at worst). Also, committee members may know that and just ignore the person's point of view. Finally, the national committee will ultimately decide things, so one person on one regional committee isn't going to wield that much power or sway.

[blue_jays]

Paul Newman's Own Top 25 (October 28th)

1)  Messiah
2)  Calvin
3)  Tufts (would have dropped 2-3 spots but don't see teams to bounce Jumbos lower)
4)  Montclair St

5)  CWRU
6)  Chicago
7)  Cortland St.
8)  North Park

9)  Kenyon
10) Rochester
11) Trinity (TX)
12) St Joseph's (ME) (the hype cools a bit after two consecutive fairly nervy 1-0 wins over average to below average competition)

13) Johns Hopkins
14) Amherst
15) Mary Washington
16) SLU

17) Stevens
18) Connecticut College
19) Haverford
20) Franklin & Marshall

21) Capital
22) Washington & Lee
23) Lynchburg
24) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
25) Oglethorpe/Eastern/Gustavus Adolphus [TIE]

RV -- Middlebury; OWU; Lycoming; Hope; St Thomas; Carleton; John Carroll; Ramapo; Carnegie Mellon; Ithaca; Luther; Loras; Babson; Redlands; Texas-Dallas; Sailisbury; Williams; Bowdoin; St Norbert; Ithaca; Mt. Union; Salve Regina; NYU; Grove City; Springfield; WPI

I'm admittedly a bit of a homer, but no SNC even in the top 25? They are undefeated (one of only 4 remaining, I believe) and have thrashed through their entire slate. UWP, Knox, Cornell and MSOE are all quality wins for them. There's only so much you can control in terms of conference strength of schedule.

Congrats on a great season!  When I do these, I get to the last 3-4 slots and have about 10-12 teams that could go in there.  St. Norbert obviously is deserving, but then I have to think of which team I would take out to put them in.  Same with Salve Regina. 

How do you see St Norbert comparing to Gustavus, Carleton, Loras, Hope, etc?

Not really a lot of common opponents between many of these teams and SNC, except for Loras, who has lost a couple games to teams SNC has beaten. Eastern, for example, has also lost some questionable games, and plays in a conference that I would at least consider the MWC to be on par with, would be a team to swap out SNC with. I agree, though, that there are many worthy teams to slot into this top 25, but I think SNC, and even Gusty probably deserve to be in there.

The schedule is the problem for St. Norbert. The MWC has not been a good MSOC conference, so those wins don't hold a lot of weight on a national scale. They beat an Elmhurst team that won 4 games this year, their worst season in 12 years (Elmhurst beat Knox as well). St. Scholastica is having its worst season since 2005. Lakeland is 3-16. They tied a Carroll team that went 3-13-2.
The MSOE and Platteville wins are the only quality squads that I see in the schedule, and neither school comes from a power soccer conference.
SNC could well prove to be a worthy top 25 team, but they're gonna have to prove it in the NCAA tournament.

[Buck O.]

Paul you have been rather quiet regarding Kenyon this year. They look to be having a very good season. Could this be the year they go to the final 4? Do they have what it takes?  Will they wrestle the title from Messiah and the NESCAC for the first time since 2011. Perhaps a UAA side will bring it home. Should be interesting tournament.

Tufts and Conn Coll already, plus two out of three among Chicago, CWRU and Rochester, and all three of those if Wash U somehow wins the AQ (which maybe they can't after the draw with NYU). 

They can't.  WashU is four points back of Chicago with only one game to go.  So the AQ will go to Chicago or Case.

[PaulNewman]

Those interested in following the Pool C drama and concerned for your own team's chances may want to keep an eye on more top teams with decent to good chances to stumble in their conference tourneys.....Montclair (a semi with Rowan), Cortland (semi with Oneonta), Amherst, Mary Washington, Oglethorpe, Kenyon, Capital, maybe John Carroll, North Park, Trinity (TX), GAC, SLU, maybe Luther....and even Messiah (possible rematch with Lycoming) and Calvin (semi with rival Hope).  Some of the above may well not be locks for Pool Cs if they do falter, but certainly Montclair, Cortland, Trinity (TX), Messiah and Calvin would all get bids.

[Gregory Sager]

An unusual goal is an unusual goal in any language.