2018 Season - National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Correction: C-M-S drew with Chapman last night and did not advance on PKs (5-4).  That leaves them at 14-2-1 with SoS probably bumped from .525 to .540ish and based on this week's RvR 2-0-0.  The latter could change if Occidental and/or Chapman lands in the final West rankings, and C-M-S was 1-1 with Oxy and 1-0-1 with Chapman.  I was going to say whimsical, but I'll say instead this is an example of how fluid and yet so influential these rankings can be.  C-M-S could end up with 3 or 4 ranked wins, with losing perhaps helping as Chapman might get ranked because of picking up a ranked win versus C-M-S.  That's the kind of counter-intuitive stuff that might decide a Pool C or not a Pool C, and there are examples like this in probably every region.

[blooter442]

I totally agree with you that the discussion of NPU men's soccer recruiting has long since passed the beating-a-dead-horse stage, blooter, and I'm more than happy to give it a rest. It'd suit me just fine if the topic never came up on d3boards anymore. But if someone is going to go out of his way to take a swipe at NPU from out of nowhere, then I'm going to respond with the facts.

Fair enough.

[PaulNewman]

A full report with facts would include number of non-American frosh, total roster size, total numbers American versus international, and number of starters and regular subs in each category.  16 by any measure is a large number but not quite as large as the impression might be, given a roster of 49 and without knowing who actually plays and who doesn't.  I point all that out as someone who doesn't have any objection with North Park, and who, as an aside, considers North Park a very serious contender to win the national title.

[Gregory Sager]

C-M-S and Trinity (TX) are both on the low side on SoS AND ranked wins, but would one or both (if Trinity loses in their tourney) benefit from a little extra consideration (compared to their Midwest and East Coach brethren) so that the West gets 1-2 Pool Cs?  Is there a general view with as a whole region it is harder for the West do well on SoS and ranked wins on a comparative basis?

My observation from following various D3 sports as to how the so-called "island teams" (geographical isolates from the NWC, SCIAC, ASC, and SCAC) are handled for national tournament purposes is that they're only given special treatment in the bracketing process. In other words, the respective committees of those various sports don't give extra consideration to island teams; they keep the integrity of the selection process intact, and then bracket around the quirks of whatever field it is that they've put together.

The NCAA isn't so stingy as to tell those D3 committees that they only have, say, one flight allowed on opening weekend per sport. There is a little leeway in the budget for airline travel as necessary. They just try to keep the flights down to as low a number as possible.

The fact that men's soccer doesn't have a full bracket yet (i.e., it's only a 62-side field rather than 64) is something of a blessing for bracket construction, because you can always use one of the two byes for the West Coast if necessary, creating a three-pod consisting of the SCIAC autobid, the NWC autobid, and a Pool C. That typically skews seeding, but you can always make the argument that it's a tradeoff for the fact that a West Coast team is unlikely to ever host a sectional. (In men's basketball, for example, there's only been one sectional ever held on the West Coast in the two decades that D3 has used its current format in that sport.) And if you wind up with a field that doesn't have a Pool C squad from any of those four West Coast and Texas-based leagues, then you have a perfect fit for a four-pod.

[PaulNewman]

C-M-S and Trinity (TX) are both on the low side on SoS AND ranked wins, but would one or both (if Trinity loses in their tourney) benefit from a little extra consideration (compared to their Midwest and East Coach brethren) so that the West gets 1-2 Pool Cs?  Is there a general view with as a whole region it is harder for the West do well on SoS and ranked wins on a comparative basis?

My observation from following various D3 sports as to how the so-called "island teams" (geographical isolates from the NWC, SCIAC, ASC, and SCAC) are handled for national tournament purposes is that they're only given special treatment in the bracketing process. In other words, the respective committees of those various sports don't give extra consideration to island teams; they keep the integrity of the selection process intact, and then bracket around the quirks of whatever field it is that they've put together.

The NCAA isn't so stingy as to tell those D3 committees that they only have, say, one flight allowed on opening weekend per sport. There is a little leeway in the budget for airline travel as necessary. They just try to keep the flights down to as low a number as possible.

The fact that men's soccer doesn't have a full bracket yet (i.e., it's only a 62-side field rather than 64) is something of a blessing for bracket construction, because you can always use one of the two byes for the West Coast if necessary, creating a three-pod consisting of the SCIAC autobid, the NWC autobid, and a Pool C. That typically skews seeding, but you can always make the argument that it's a tradeoff for the fact that a West Coast team is unlikely to ever host a sectional. (In men's basketball, for example, there's only been one sectional ever held on the West Coast in the two decades that D3 has used its current format in that sport.) And if you wind up with a field that doesn't have a Pool C squad from any of those four West Coast and Texas-based leagues, then you have a perfect fit for a four-pod.

This is a good example of "what integrity is" not always being so clear.  If the West teams, by definition, are basically precluded from higher SoS's and a larger number of ranked wins, then how can they fairly be held to a standard where it's already known in advance that can't be met (without some additional and very expensive travel)?  I actually on a personal level don't want more West teams to get in because that could well keep my team out but in the bigger picture if I look at it as a neutral there seems to be a legit fairness issue.  I assume this is why Whitworth has made a recent habit of making a big East Coast trip at the beginning of the season.

And RE: the bolded above....is that an indication of the process working well or not well?  Honest question.

[Gregory Sager]

A full report with facts would include number of non-American frosh, total roster size, total numbers American versus international, and number of starters and regular subs in each category.  16 by any measure is a large number but not quite as large as the impression might be, given a roster of 49 and without knowing who actually plays and who doesn't.  I point all that out as someone who doesn't have any objection with North Park, and who, as an aside, considers North Park a very serious contender to win the national title.

Fine. Here's what you're requesting (and then some), and I hope that this puts the subject to bed once and for all:

Total roster size: 53 (including one likely medical redshirt)
Varsity traveling roster: 25
Americans: 34
Internationals: 19

Starters:
Americans: 3
Internationals: 8

Regular subs:
Americans: 4
Internationals: 0

(Right now, the Vikings have an injured starter and an injured regular sub, and John Born has not added two more players to his rotation. Instead, on Wednesday he went with 4 American starters and 7 international starters, plus only two subs while the contest was still in doubt ... both of whom are American.)

When the Vikings have a secure lead, he tends to put in a secondary group of subs that consists of 5 Americans and 2 internationals.

Freshmen total: 29
Chicagoland freshmen: 14
Total American freshmen: 17
International freshmen: 12

(I originally miscounted the number of Americans. I probably counted the kid from Nebraska as a Norwegian. )

Among the freshmen, four are starters and two are regular subs. The four starters are all international players; the two regular subs are both Americans. And those two American freshmen subs accounted for three of NPU's six goals in the CCIW tournament semifinal on Wednesday.

Just for the record, NPU isn't even close to being the most international-dominated roster in D3.

[OldNed]

Just for the record, NPU isn't even close to being the most international-dominated roster in D3.

Wow - thanks for that eye opening link.  60 players on that roster and it looks at first glance like 90% international.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Random thoughts on a Friday morning....

On the West Coast last night, C-M-S and Redlands both lost their semis.  Redlands is probably out, but C-M-S might be scooping up another Pool C.  Pool C candidates will be hoping that Trinity (TX) doesn't falter.

Vegter is more of a career story but he belongs in the discussion of "story of the year" along with Nick West, Chewy Gordon, Joseph Fala, St. Joseph's, St. Norbert, Ramapo, maybe the Hope turnaround, etc.  Obviously all of these families got their kids playing soccer at a young age but there has to be a real genetic component as well....the Vegter brothers, Thompson brothers, Robbins brothers, West brothers, Wall brothers, etc, etc. 

Vegter reminds me of a kid that at U10 or U12 you put up top to start the game to get 3 goals, moved to midfield to help some other kids on the team score, moved to defense to shut down the other team, and then put in the goal to close it out.  I could definitely see him playing professional soccer.

More than I can recall from recent years past (although I may be wrong), this is the year when Pool C selections will be dominated by outsized focus on SoS and "ranked wins" with winning percentage the big "loser."

The UAA will get six teams in (AQ plus 5 Pool Cs)....OK, maybe five and 4 Pool Cs (but I think there is a good chance for Wash U if they get a win against Chicago).

Calvin will win the national title.

St. Joseph's (ME), assuming the Monks pull through with an AQ, will get to at least the Elite 8.

D3soccer.com "poster of the year," for the second consecutive year, goes to Mr.Right in a landslide.

I'm with you on the UAA getting 5 Pool C, IF WashU beats Chicago.   Other than that its Chicago/CWRU, Rochester, CMU, NYU

Chicago is my pick for the title.

St. Joseph's (ME), getting bounced in the first weekend having to face a team like Babson or NESCAC in the first round.   In reality, falls to a NESCAC school in round of 32, ending the 41 match unbeaten streak.

[PaulNewman]

A diversion to picking on North Carolina Wesleyan?  Is the suggestion that NC Wesleyan is "really bad"?  Or that the even heavier international percentage is a really good thing?  Is a certain percentage laudable and beyond a certain point not?  Clearly the international component is vital to the relative success of both programs and I assume fits with some type of tradition for both schools.  There's nothing that needs to be minimized or to feel defensive about.  Some are going to have a negative reaction, especially in the current hysterical, strategically politicized, fear-mongering, trumped-up nationalist climate.  That's fine.  Everyone has their opinion and everyone gets a vote (metaphorical and/or real).  I am very familiar with that part of North Carolina, and I can attest that the NC Wesleyan soccer roster is a very good thing for that area.

[4samuy]

International or not, All I know is that IMO, I wouldn't want to be a fan of a team and see North Park in my half of a bracket.  I'll be interested to see how they play against a Carthage team that has played pretty well as of late, but North Park is really good.  Very talented.

[PaulNewman]

Random thoughts on a Friday morning....

On the West Coast last night, C-M-S and Redlands both lost their semis.  Redlands is probably out, but C-M-S might be scooping up another Pool C.  Pool C candidates will be hoping that Trinity (TX) doesn't falter.

Vegter is more of a career story but he belongs in the discussion of "story of the year" along with Nick West, Chewy Gordon, Joseph Fala, St. Joseph's, St. Norbert, Ramapo, maybe the Hope turnaround, etc.  Obviously all of these families got their kids playing soccer at a young age but there has to be a real genetic component as well....the Vegter brothers, Thompson brothers, Robbins brothers, West brothers, Wall brothers, etc, etc. 

Vegter reminds me of a kid that at U10 or U12 you put up top to start the game to get 3 goals, moved to midfield to help some other kids on the team score, moved to defense to shut down the other team, and then put in the goal to close it out.  I could definitely see him playing professional soccer.

More than I can recall from recent years past (although I may be wrong), this is the year when Pool C selections will be dominated by outsized focus on SoS and "ranked wins" with winning percentage the big "loser."

The UAA will get six teams in (AQ plus 5 Pool Cs)....OK, maybe five and 4 Pool Cs (but I think there is a good chance for Wash U if they get a win against Chicago).

Calvin will win the national title.

St. Joseph's (ME), assuming the Monks pull through with an AQ, will get to at least the Elite 8.

D3soccer.com "poster of the year," for the second consecutive year, goes to Mr.Right in a landslide.

I'm with you on the UAA getting 5 Pool C, IF WashU beats Chicago.   Other than that its Chicago/CWRU, Rochester, CMU, NYU

Chicago is my pick for the title.

St. Joseph's (ME), getting bounced in the first weekend having to face a team like Babson or NESCAC in the first round.   In reality, falls to a NESCAC school in round of 32, ending the 41 match unbeaten streak.

You could be right.  Ironically 2 years ago they got by Babson in PKs and the last year did not advance on PKs versus Tufts.  They certainly won't be overwhelmed or intimidated by the stage.

[TheGreenKnight920]

Just for the record, NPU isn't even close to being the most international-dominated roster in D3.

Wow - thanks for that eye opening link.  60 players on that roster and it looks at first glance like 90% international.

Might have found a roster to one up that...https://mecathletics.com/roster.aspx?path=msoc

Seems like a school that has a hard time recruiting for all sports, while trying to maintain the academic and social missions it has committed to. International players are certainly never a bad thing for any school or any sport.

[PaulNewman]

International or not, All I know is that IMO, I wouldn't want to be a fan of a team and see North Park in my half of a bracket.  I'll be interested to see how they play against a Carthage team that has played pretty well as of late, but North Park is really good.  Very talented.

Exactly.  And if I was Sager I'd be feeling mighty proud myself.

[TheGreenKnight920]

St. Norbert wins 2-0 against Lake Forest to maintain their undefeated record and advance to the conference finals tomorrow. Not sure how familiar anyone on here is with this Green Knight squad, but I wouldn't want to face them come playoff time.

[Bobcat1]

Random thoughts on a Friday morning....

On the West Coast last night, C-M-S and Redlands both lost their semis.  Redlands is probably out, but C-M-S might be scooping up another Pool C.  Pool C candidates will be hoping that Trinity (TX) doesn't falter.

Vegter is more of a career story but he belongs in the discussion of "story of the year" along with Nick West, Chewy Gordon, Joseph Fala, St. Joseph's, St. Norbert, Ramapo, maybe the Hope turnaround, etc.  Obviously all of these families got their kids playing soccer at a young age but there has to be a real genetic component as well....the Vegter brothers, Thompson brothers, Robbins brothers, West brothers, Wall brothers, etc, etc. 

Vegter reminds me of a kid that at U10 or U12 you put up top to start the game to get 3 goals, moved to midfield to help some other kids on the team score, moved to defense to shut down the other team, and then put in the goal to close it out.  I could definitely see him playing professional soccer.

More than I can recall from recent years past (although I may be wrong), this is the year when Pool C selections will be dominated by outsized focus on SoS and "ranked wins" with winning percentage the big "loser."

The UAA will get six teams in (AQ plus 5 Pool Cs)....OK, maybe five and 4 Pool Cs (but I think there is a good chance for Wash U if they get a win against Chicago).

Calvin will win the national title.

St. Joseph's (ME), assuming the Monks pull through with an AQ, will get to at least the Elite 8.

D3soccer.com "poster of the year," for the second consecutive year, goes to Mr.Right in a landslide.

Some interesting random thoughts. Calvin is as solid a pick as anyone to win it all. Last chance for Vegter, Witte, and McCaw. So close two years ago. I agree if WashU beats Chicago, UAA could get six teams.  NESCAC probably 4, maybe 5 depending on who wins the conference championship. Assuming St. Joe's gets past J&W it will be very interesting to see where they play the first two rounds. Depending on the outcomes this weekend, possibilities could include Amherst, Babson, Conn, Cortland, Tufts, SLU, others? I doubt they would go to Rochester, Messiah, or Montclair. Will be a likely tough second round draw for whoever hosts St. Joe's...