2018 Season - National Perspective

[Mr.Right]

Random thoughts on a Friday morning....

On the West Coast last night, C-M-S and Redlands both lost their semis.  Redlands is probably out, but C-M-S might be scooping up another Pool C.  Pool C candidates will be hoping that Trinity (TX) doesn't falter.

Vegter is more of a career story but he belongs in the discussion of "story of the year" along with Nick West, Chewy Gordon, Joseph Fala, St. Joseph's, St. Norbert, Ramapo, maybe the Hope turnaround, etc.  Obviously all of these families got their kids playing soccer at a young age but there has to be a real genetic component as well....the Vegter brothers, Thompson brothers, Robbins brothers, West brothers, Wall brothers, etc, etc. 

Vegter reminds me of a kid that at U10 or U12 you put up top to start the game to get 3 goals, moved to midfield to help some other kids on the team score, moved to defense to shut down the other team, and then put in the goal to close it out.  I could definitely see him playing professional soccer.

More than I can recall from recent years past (although I may be wrong), this is the year when Pool C selections will be dominated by outsized focus on SoS and "ranked wins" with winning percentage the big "loser."

The UAA will get six teams in (AQ plus 5 Pool Cs)....OK, maybe five and 4 Pool Cs (but I think there is a good chance for Wash U if they get a win against Chicago).

Calvin will win the national title.

St. Joseph's (ME), assuming the Monks pull through with an AQ, will get to at least the Elite 8.

D3soccer.com "poster of the year," for the second consecutive year, goes to Mr.Right in a landslide.

Haha thanks....If I only figured out in my mid 20's that sobriety and good behavior went hand in hand.....Oh well I still had a blast...I would not count out Redlands just yet because of the usual West Coast "addition" to make the brackets work. I could see a scenario where both CMS and Redlands get in.

St.Joe's to the Elite 8 to me is a stretch unless they get a good draw which I doubt because of their ranking. Last year with the same record they got sent to Tufts for a Play-in game then Tufts and lets remember they did graduate a key player or two from that team. I think the kid up front from Rhode Island was pretty skilled and quick but I suppose its possible. I just am not sold they can score against good competition. I know they can defend and have a GK but can they score. Because of their geography I do not see how they get sent anywhere but New England maybe St.Lawrence but I doubt it. It would be a great story if they could make a run and honestly this is the year they need to do it because they have some key players that will be graduating. I am actually curious if J&W can give them a game in the GNAC Final. J&W Head Coach Dave Kulik played at Yale and then got fired at Clark but he knows enough of what he is doing to devise a plan and have his guys execute it.

[PaulNewman]

Problem for Redlands is zero ranked wins and not even draws on RvR...ALTHOUGH if Occidental and/or Chapman end in final rankings then they could pick up 2-4 ranked wins, so again, shows just how much a profile can sway based on who ends up in the last spot or two of rankings.  Some teams are still living off of Ohio Northern hanging around in the last Great Lakes slot of rankings.  Redlands also had C-M-S, Trinity and Mary Hardin Baylor ahead of them in the West. 

[Gregory Sager]

A diversion to picking on North Carolina Wesleyan?  Is the suggestion that NC Wesleyan is "really bad"?  Or that the even heavier international percentage is a really good thing?  Is a certain percentage laudable and beyond a certain point not?  Clearly the international component is vital to the relative success of both programs and I assume fits with some type of tradition for both schools.  There's nothing that needs to be minimized or to feel defensive about.  Some are going to have a negative reaction, especially in the current hysterical, strategically politicized, fear-mongering, trumped-up nationalist climate.  That's fine.  Everyone has their opinion and everyone gets a vote (metaphorical and/or real).  I am very familiar with that part of North Carolina, and I can attest that the NC Wesleyan soccer roster is a very good thing for that area.

Sigh.

Really? We have to keep this thing going?

It wasn't a "diversion" at all. I said that I would like to see this subject closed, and I meant it. I figured that adding a bit of perspective might help in that regard. I see that I guessed incorrectly. That's on me, I suppose.

I have no opinion whatsoever regarding North Carolina Wesleyan's roster. I couldn't care less about it. Coach Taal could recruit his entire roster from Rocky Mount's five local high schools, or he could import 60 Martians to play for the Battling Bishops, for all that it matters to me. As I said, I simply put the NCWC link in my post for the sake of perspective.

I don't see any reason to inject politics into this, either. Personally, I come to d3boards.com to get away from politics.

I didn't put the bit about NCWC in there for you, since you had already said that you don't have any objection with NPU's roster. I put it in there for paclassic89, or for anybody else who has a beef with NPU's international players. That's what I meant by "just for the record."

Just for the record, NPU isn't even close to being the most international-dominated roster in D3.

Wow - thanks for that eye opening link.  60 players on that roster and it looks at first glance like 90% international.

Might have found a roster to one up that...https://mecathletics.com/roster.aspx?path=msoc

Seems like a school that has a hard time recruiting for all sports, while trying to maintain the academic and social missions it has committed to. International players are certainly never a bad thing for any school or any sport.

Yes, very much so. And it also makes sense for Medgar Evers, which (like NPU) is located in a mega-city, to have a large international presence on its men's soccer squad.

International or not, All I know is that IMO, I wouldn't want to be a fan of a team and see North Park in my half of a bracket.  I'll be interested to see how they play against a Carthage team that has played pretty well as of late, but North Park is really good.  Very talented.

Exactly.  And if I was Sager I'd be feeling mighty proud myself.

Trust me, I am. It's just that I read paclassic89's post this morning and did a Pacino:

[Mr.Right]

That NC Wesleyan roster looks like a Football roster. That is some crazy stuff. Interesting the Coaching staff is also international. NOTE: The Head Coach is a former player at Bethany(WV) but not sure if he was on the team when they made their incredible run in 1994 to Win the National Championship. Interesting that Bethany(WV) had like a 4 year stretch of some good teams including IIRC an Elite 8 in 1996 but then they either lost to eventual winner TCNJ or Ithaca. Cannot quite remember but I am curious now as to why the program fell so hard and so quick after that 3-4 year run. It did seem they came out of nowhere in 1994 and then just like that vanished after 1997. Either way the Head Coach at NC Wesleyan was on those Bethany sides....

[PaulNewman]

A few good games tonight....before a huge day tomorrow.

6:00 -- A Lone Star shootout between East Texas Baptist and Texas-Dallas

7:00 -- The aforementioned Battling Bishops of NC Wesleyan versus Maryville (TN); Berry versus Oglethorpe; Ohio Northern versus Capital; and the main event, Ramapo @ Montclair State

[PaulNewman]

That NC Wesleyan roster looks like a Football roster. That is some crazy stuff. Interesting the Coaching staff is also international. NOTE: The Head Coach is a former player at Bethany(WV) but not sure if he was on the team when they made their incredible run in 1994 to Win the National Championship. Interesting that Bethany(WV) had like a 4 year stretch of some good teams including IIRC an Elite 8 in 1996 but then they either lost to eventual winner TCNJ or Ithaca. Cannot quite remember but I am curious now as to why the program fell so hard and so quick after that 3-4 year run. It did seem they came out of nowhere in 1994 and then just like that vanished after 1997. Either way the Head Coach at NC Wesleyan was on those Bethany sides....

Yes, he was part of the '94 squad.

[PaulNewman]

Any predictions on whether Ramapo versus MSU will be a 1-0 or 2-1 affair or more like a 5-4 shootout?

[lastguyoffthebench]

I think Ramapo is better than MSU and will win the game... not so sure of a scoreline, though.   I'll go 2-1 Ramapo.

[Gregory Sager]

A few good games tonight....before a huge day tomorrow.

6:00 -- A Lone Star shootout between East Texas Baptist and Texas-Dallas

7:00 -- The aforementioned Battling Bishops of NC Wesleyan versus Maryville (TN); Berry versus Oglethorpe; Ohio Northern versus Capital; and the main event, Ramapo @ Montclair State

I'm tempted to watch ONU @ Capital just to see Chewy Gordon play.

[Gregory Sager]

C-M-S and Trinity (TX) are both on the low side on SoS AND ranked wins, but would one or both (if Trinity loses in their tourney) benefit from a little extra consideration (compared to their Midwest and East Coach brethren) so that the West gets 1-2 Pool Cs?  Is there a general view with as a whole region it is harder for the West do well on SoS and ranked wins on a comparative basis?

My observation from following various D3 sports as to how the so-called "island teams" (geographical isolates from the NWC, SCIAC, ASC, and SCAC) are handled for national tournament purposes is that they're only given special treatment in the bracketing process. In other words, the respective committees of those various sports don't give extra consideration to island teams; they keep the integrity of the selection process intact, and then bracket around the quirks of whatever field it is that they've put together.

The NCAA isn't so stingy as to tell those D3 committees that they only have, say, one flight allowed on opening weekend per sport. There is a little leeway in the budget for airline travel as necessary. They just try to keep the flights down to as low a number as possible.

The fact that men's soccer doesn't have a full bracket yet (i.e., it's only a 62-side field rather than 64) is something of a blessing for bracket construction, because you can always use one of the two byes for the West Coast if necessary, creating a three-pod consisting of the SCIAC autobid, the NWC autobid, and a Pool C. That typically skews seeding, but you can always make the argument that it's a tradeoff for the fact that a West Coast team is unlikely to ever host a sectional. (In men's basketball, for example, there's only been one sectional ever held on the West Coast in the two decades that D3 has used its current format in that sport.) And if you wind up with a field that doesn't have a Pool C squad from any of those four West Coast and Texas-based leagues, then you have a perfect fit for a four-pod.

This is a good example of "what integrity is" not always being so clear.  If the West teams, by definition, are basically precluded from higher SoS's and a larger number of ranked wins, then how can they fairly be held to a standard where it's already known in advance that can't be met (without some additional and very expensive travel)?

The West Region's members aren't precluded from higher SoS's and a larger number of ranked wins by definition. They're precluded from higher SoS's and a larger number of ranked wins because the four leagues that make up the region (NWC, SCIAC, ASC, and SCAC) all play double round-robins, in stark contrast to the single round-robin or not-even-a-full-single-round-robin that most D3 leagues employ for men's soccer. When the vast majority of your matches are played within the league, everyone naturally gravitates closer to .500 SoS -- and it also reduces your flexibility in scheduling non-conference matches, thereby reducing your chances of playing RRO.

I'm not blaming those four leagues for doing that. It's much tougher for the so-called "island schools" (geographical outliers to D3, including the schools in Texas, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, and California that make up the West Region) to schedule non-conference contests in men's soccer, so using a double round-robin saves them the trouble of having to try.

This is not as much of an issue in other sports as it is for men's soccer and women's soccer, because winter and spring sports see lots of D3 teams from northern climes travel southward for so-called snowbird trips, both as a recruiting tool over winter break (men's and women's basketball) and as a necessity due to outdoor conditions in March (baseball and softball). And it's not so much of an issue in football, which has a pretty small number of Pool C bids to hand out, anyway. But in soccer, the time of the season when most non-con matches are held (September and early October) is the opportune time to schedule home matches or to play locally, rather than fly to southern California or to Texas.

But note that in the other sports vis-a-vis the island schools, it's the rest of D3 that comes to them. In men's and women's soccer, it's the other way around; the burden is upon the island schools to go to the rest of D3. The means are there for the island schools in the West Region to cover their non-con quota in a single round-robin situation, but, unless they're willing to schedule NAIA schools to pick up whatever extra matches can't be normally filled (which, of course, assumes that the NAIA schools would be willing to play them), it would mean doling out the extra bucks for some flights. And, of course, it's always easy to talk about spending somebody else's money.

I actually on a personal level don't want more West teams to get in because that could well keep my team out but in the bigger picture if I look at it as a neutral there seems to be a legit fairness issue.  I assume this is why Whitworth has made a recent habit of making a big East Coast trip at the beginning of the season.

And RE: the bolded above....is that an indication of the process working well or not well?  Honest question.

There are tradeoffs involved. It's much harder for a West Coast team to get to host a sectional; but, on the other hand, they get more byes than they generally deserve in sports that don't have full 64-team brackets (although men's soccer committees have managed to avoid that contingency in recent seasons), and they don't tend to be offered up as sacrificial lambs on the opening nights of tourneys, which is what would happen in some sports, because more often than not their opponent seeding load is lighter than it is for the schools in more D3-populated areas of the country that can be seeded properly.

In terms of integrity and fairness, I think that D3's national committees are doing the best that they can with the budget with which they have to work -- which is definitely constrained to a certain degree. D1 makes all of the money for the NCAA (well, two D1 sports make all of the money for the NCAA), and he who pays the piper calls the tune. D3 really isn't a position to complain about having only a limited number of flights available for each sport's national tournament.

I guess that I would say that the process is as fair as it can be, under the circumstances.

[PaulNewman]

That was pretty dense.  Let me simplify my question to make sure I'm following.

IF the West Coast schools didn't do double round-robins AND did not have the resources for significant extra travel during the regular season (as compared to what we're used to in the East and Midwest), are you saying they could get on a level playing field in terms of access to SoS and RvR?  Or are you acknowledging that they would still be at a disadvantage?  I also think some of us on the East Coast have a distorted view of how close or far away those schools are from each other.....Oxy to Whitman is a hike.

[Gregory Sager]

It depends upon how creative they're willing, or able, to be. For example, there's the NAIA option that I mentioned. The Pacific Northwest has the Cascade Collegiate Conference (12 teams), while the SCIAC has geographical proximity to the CalPac (12 teams) and the Golden State Athletic Conference (10 teams). Playing NAIA sides wouldn't count towards the criteria, of course, but it would eliminate the leveling tendencies of a double round-robin. I don't know how those two leagues, or their three NAIA neighbors, feel about D3/NAIA crossover play in men's soccer. I know that they don't typically play much in other sports, but, given the unique calendar-and-climate-based problems facing men's and women's soccer that I mentioned, perhaps they could make an exception for those two sports.

Then there's the possibility of squeezing multiple matches into road trips by, say, flying in for a Friday contest and then busing to a Saturday match at one of Friday's opponent's league rivals. You could even cut out the bus travel by setting up classic-style tourneys in which two NWC sides would play two SCIAC sides at the same site on a Friday, and then they'd alternate the crossover on Saturday.

The problem is lessened for the SCAC and ASC, because those two leagues share the same geographical footprint, allowing for more crossover than those two leagues currently employ. In fact, those two leagues could completely cover their non-con responsibilities between them. (I think that I said that the ASC plays a double round-robin; it's actually a single round-robin, but, since the league is so huge, the league schedule still eats up two-thirds of the overall sked.) As you pointed out by citing Oxy and Whitman, the SCIAC and the NWC are nowhere near each other, so the real criteria-related problem lies with the two West Coast leagues.

[Gregory Sager]

Ohio Northern knocked off Capital in double OT, 2-1.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

That was pretty dense.  Let me simplify my question to make sure I'm following.

IF the West Coast schools didn't do double round-robins AND did not have the resources for significant extra travel during the regular season (as compared to what we're used to in the East and Midwest), are you saying they could get on a level playing field in terms of access to SoS and RvR?  Or are you acknowledging that they would still be at a disadvantage?  I also think some of us on the East Coast have a distorted view of how close or far away those schools are from each other.....Oxy to Whitman is a hike.

I'd argue, depending on how creative they want to be with the travel, they could raise their SOS and the vRRO. The double-round robin makes bring an SOS up far more difficult and unless a huge chunk of teams in the conference ranked, they aren't benefiting from it.

And yes, I am amazed how many people don't realize the trips from the center of the country westward are FAR more lengthy than many realize.

Oxy to Whitman, as you used, is comparable as Emory to Babson .. mileage and travel time. In the right-hand third of the country (with some exceptions), you can't hit an interstate exit without tripping over colleges.

[rudy]

I think Ramapo is better than MSU and will win the game... not so sure of a scoreline, though.   I'll go 2-1 Ramapo.

Wow MSU destroyed Ramapo 5-0. What happened? When Messiah played MSU early season it was not close. Messiah handled them easily. It looks like since then MSU has gotten better throughout the season. They made a statement with this win for sure.