2018 Season - National Perspective

[lastguyoffthebench]

Pool Cs so far....

Tufts
CWRU
Cortland St
Rochester
Conn College
Johns Hopkins
Carnegie Mellon
Ramapo
NYU
Amherst
Babson
Haverford/F&M

That's 12....7 left....

Now what happens with John Carroll, Williams, Messiah, SLU, Trinity, Luther, North Park, Oglethorpe with AQs....Claremont-Mudd Scripps?  Hope?  St Thomas?  Midd?  Capital?  Lycoming?  Capital?  GAC?  Carleton?  Rowan/Will Paterson?  Dickinson?  New Paltz/Oneonta?

-I feel that Dickinson needed one more win
-I think Babson Or Midd is a coin flip.  Only one gets in
-JC If AQ, Capital just misses out.
-CMS will slip in rankings, SOS way too low, outside of bubble
-Rowan/WPU both 7 loss teams; Camden a 5 loss team that beat NYU and tied Ramapo.  If a third from NJAC, it's them. 
-Lyco is win or bust
-I give Oneonta a chance over New Paltz, both on outside of bubble
-Hope could be done if SOS is around.535

[PaulNewman]

Pool Cs so far....

Tufts
CWRU
Cortland St
Rochester
Conn College
Johns Hopkins
Carnegie Mellon
Ramapo
NYU
Amherst
Babson
Haverford/F&M

That's 12....7 left....

Now what happens with John Carroll, Williams, Messiah, SLU, Trinity, Luther, North Park, Oglethorpe with AQs....Claremont-Mudd Scripps?  Hope?  St Thomas?  Midd?  Capital?  Lycoming?  Capital?  GAC?  Carleton?  Rowan/Will Paterson?  Dickinson?  New Paltz/Oneonta?

-I feel that Dickinson needed one more win
-I think Babson Or Midd is a coin flip.  Only one gets in
-CMS will slip in rankings, SOS way too low, outside of bubble
-Rowan/WPU both 7 loss teams; Camden a 5 loss team that beat NYU and tied Ramapo.  If a third from NJAC, it's them
-Lyco is win or bust
-I give Oneonta a chance over New Paltz, both on outside of bubble
-Hope could be done if SOS is around.535

But in theory there's got to be a reason to push RUC above those teams, since they already were below on the same criteria.  Same with Hope.  They already were at #3 in Central and there's not much data to drop them lower except that North Park (closing in on an AQ as just went ahead 2-1) might jump them.  I don't see New Paltz or Oneonta getting in.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Previously unbeaten SNC falls 2-1 in conference final to Knox...I'm sure the committee would love to have some 5 loss UAA team in over them, which is an absolute shame and a real testament to how subjectivity in any selection process is utterly ridiculous when you have metrics other than SOS.

Don't give up all hope just yet.  SNC should get a decent SoS bump to maybe .535ish, and have RvR of 2-0, and if somehow Knox gets ranked (not sure of their SoS) but they now have several ranked wins and a good record as well, then SNC would have a RvR of 3-1.  Their problem right now isn't the UAA teams.  They need to jump GAC and another 1-2 ranked North teams.

SNC with an SOS around.520 at best...   Both Lake Forest and Knox had SOS under.500

The harsh reality, SNC bubble has burst

[TheGreenKnight920]

Previously unbeaten SNC falls 2-1 in conference final to Knox...I'm sure the committee would love to have some 5 loss UAA team in over them, which is an absolute shame and a real testament to how subjectivity in any selection process is utterly ridiculous when you have metrics other than SOS.

Don't give up all hope just yet.  SNC should get a decent SoS bump to maybe .535ish, and have RvR of 2-0, and if somehow Knox gets ranked (not sure of their SoS) but they now have several ranked wins and a good record as well, then SNC would have a RvR of 3-1.  Their problem right now isn't the UAA teams.  They need to jump GAC and another 1-2 ranked North teams.

I used UAA more as a general example, in this case. You look at the other Pool C bids that are "clinched," and its middle/lower pack (in terms of standings) NESCAC, CC, UAA, etc... teams that are getting them without a second thought, which is absurd. SNC will likely drop out of regional rankings after this (as they were 6th out of 7 as of Wednesday), essentially because they don't have name recognition/pedigree/conference affiliation...tell me I'm wrong. At what point will the NCAA stop rewarding losses?

[lastguyoffthebench]

The reason to push RUC over Rowan and WPU is that both picked up their 7th loss the final week.    I think RUC jumps both of them final ranking.   I put Camden, Hope, Capital in that 17-21 range

[TheGreenKnight920]

The reason to push RUC over Rowan and WPU is that both picked up their 7th loss the final week.    I think RUC jumps both of them final ranking.   I put Camden, Hope, Capital in that 17-21 range

The fact that a 7 loss team is even seriously included in the discussion just shows how cartoonish this whole process is. I don't really have a dog in the fight, but I'm really pulling for St. Joes to win the AQ so they don't suffer the same fate as my Knights, being a one-loss team left out in favor of teams with "quality losses."

[PaulNewman]

The reason to push RUC over Rowan and WPU is that both picked up their 7th loss the final week.    I think RUC jumps both of them final ranking.   I put Camden, Hope, Capital in that 17-21 range

Yeah, I must admit I don't understand the SA rankings at all.  Oglethorpe looks soft to me at #4 with what will be a .550-560ish SoS and only 1 ranked win.  And I give Centre a decent shot to get the AQ.

[PaulNewman]

Hold on....Carthage just drew even 2-2 with North Park late in 2nd.

[PaulNewman]

Now 3-2 Carthage.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Hope would get in over NP

[blue_jays]

Previously unbeaten SNC falls 2-1 in conference final to Knox...I'm sure the committee would love to have some 5 loss UAA team in over them, which is an absolute shame and a real testament to how subjectivity in any selection process is utterly ridiculous when you have metrics other than SOS.

Don't give up all hope just yet.  SNC should get a decent SoS bump to maybe .535ish, and have RvR of 2-0, and if somehow Knox gets ranked (not sure of their SoS) but they now have several ranked wins and a good record as well, then SNC would have a RvR of 3-1.  Their problem right now isn't the UAA teams.  They need to jump GAC and another 1-2 ranked North teams.

I used UAA more as a general example, in this case. You look at the other Pool C bids that are "clinched," and its middle/lower pack (in terms of standings) NESCAC, CC, UAA, etc... teams that are getting them without a second thought, which is absurd. SNC will likely drop out of regional rankings after this (as they were 6th out of 7 as of Wednesday), essentially because they don't have name recognition/pedigree/conference affiliation...tell me I'm wrong. At what point will the NCAA stop rewarding losses?

End of the day, you gotta play better teams. The resume of wins isn't strong, regardless of how many you have. If you look at SOS, the UAA is all over the top 10 hardest schedules in the country. Chicago played seven teams this year that ranked in the top 20 in the country at the time of the game, for example.

[Ejay]

End of the day, you gotta play better teams. The resume of wins isn't strong, regardless of how many you have. If you look at SOS, the UAA is all over the top 10 hardest schedules in the country. Chicago played seven teams this year that ranked in the top 20 in the country at the time of the game, for example.

Emory played 8 ranked opponents, and lost 6 of those games, yet we're still talking about them as a possible C birth.  At some point, SOS becomes useless if you can't actually win games.

[TheGreenKnight920]

Previously unbeaten SNC falls 2-1 in conference final to Knox...I'm sure the committee would love to have some 5 loss UAA team in over them, which is an absolute shame and a real testament to how subjectivity in any selection process is utterly ridiculous when you have metrics other than SOS.

Don't give up all hope just yet.  SNC should get a decent SoS bump to maybe .535ish, and have RvR of 2-0, and if somehow Knox gets ranked (not sure of their SoS) but they now have several ranked wins and a good record as well, then SNC would have a RvR of 3-1.  Their problem right now isn't the UAA teams.  They need to jump GAC and another 1-2 ranked North teams.

I used UAA more as a general example, in this case. You look at the other Pool C bids that are "clinched," and its middle/lower pack (in terms of standings) NESCAC, CC, UAA, etc... teams that are getting them without a second thought, which is absurd. SNC will likely drop out of regional rankings after this (as they were 6th out of 7 as of Wednesday), essentially because they don't have name recognition/pedigree/conference affiliation...tell me I'm wrong. At what point will the NCAA stop rewarding losses?

End of the day, you gotta play better teams. The resume of wins isn't strong, regardless of how many you have. If you look at SOS, the UAA is all over the top 10 hardest schedules in the country. Chicago played seven teams this year that ranked in the top 20 in the country at the time of the game, for example.

Your strength of schedule is not wholly within your control, though. You are locked in to conference games, and if you have the misfortune of playing a generally weak conference, you miss out on "quality" games. Travel and budget restrictions also prohibit a team from playing the exact schedule they might want. End of the day, this selection process is essentially political, rather than analytical. SOS is the most overrated metric there is, simply because it is beyond the control of the team...Head to Head is not even considered in regional rankings, yet is possibly the strongest determinant in assessing a team (when applicable), for example, St. Norbert BEAT Platteville earlier this season, remained unbeaten until today, and yet were BEHIND Platteville in the regional rankings. Again, losses should not be rewarded. You could argue that SNC's resume would look better committee wise if they somehow were able to concoct a non-conference slate that was composed of "top teams," and even if they got rolled in, say, 4 of 6 of these hypothetical games, those losses would "look better." Quality losses should not be a thing, bottom line.

[TheGreenKnight920]

End of the day, you gotta play better teams. The resume of wins isn't strong, regardless of how many you have. If you look at SOS, the UAA is all over the top 10 hardest schedules in the country. Chicago played seven teams this year that ranked in the top 20 in the country at the time of the game, for example.

Emory played 8 ranked opponents, and lost 6 of those games, yet we're still talking about them as a possible C birth.  At some point, SOS becomes useless if you can't actually win games.

We've already reached the point of SOS being useless. A loss tomorrow for St. Joes puts them on the wrong side of the bubble, despite winning 20 in a row and only allowing one goal all season, only for them to be replaced by a WP/Rowan/Babson etc... Its hard to construct a good schedule quality-wise if you're not within reasonable travel distance from other good teams, which inherently favors teams which are clustered around one another and/or have the funds to travel greater distances, essentially making money a factor, by proxy, as well.

[PaulNewman]

I am predicting Lycoming makes the tournament.....and expect Lyco to jump Dickinson and Eastern (Eastern won AQ so doesn't matter much).....Lyco's SoS will jump to .560+ after games with Leb Valley and Messiah and RvR now at a more competitive 2-2-1.

John Carroll saved a Pool C for others by prevailing in PKs versus a surprising Ohio Northern squad.