2018 Season - National Perspective

[lastguyoffthebench]

I would think Capital gets in over Lyco, but both are in a bubble of say 6-7 teams where only 3 get in. 

The draw helps Lyco, but I dont think they jump Dickinson.   

I'd expect one upset today to eat up another Pool C. 

[PaulNewman]

I think Lyco does jump Dickinson and fairly easily with a much better winning %, rising SoS and 2-2 on RvR versus 2-5-1 for Dickinson.

Also realized there is very good chance OWU jumps Mt. Union and Capital, and the PKs for JCU and SoS bump from Kenyon could save the day yet again for OWU.  Capital drops to 2-4 on RvR and lost H2H to OWU and OWU RvR moves to 2-3-2 because Wash U got ranked.  The question is whether GL gets 2 Pool Cs or 3, and I'm going to bet 3.

Here's 5 different teams....and a good idea about what they will be deciding between....

Team A -- 10-3-3//.570//3-3-1

Team B -- 13-4-2//.570//2-3-2

Team C -- 14-2-1//.540//2-0-1 or 3-1-1

Team D -- 16-3//.535//2-2

Team E -- 13-5-2//.590//2-4-1

[PaulNewman]

I think C-M-S is in....SoS bump to maybe .540ish and 3-4 ranked wins versus 1 or 0 losses.  They pick up another ranked win with Macalester cracking North this week.

And even though I've hardly thought of them this year, the more I look at St. Thomas' profile the more I think they are in good shape with GAC on the bubble or just on wrong side of bubble.

Correction:  St. Thomas may have a RvR issue unless Augsburg comes back in and with Macalester coming in this week.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I would think Capital gets in over Lyco, but both are in a bubble of say 6-7 teams where only 3 get in. 

The draw helps Lyco, but I dont think they jump Dickinson.   

I'd expect one upset today to eat up another Pool C.

I think Lycoming will get a Pool C berth after last nights result vs Messiah. They will easily jump Dickinson as Dickinson now has 8 blemishes including 6 losses and is looking at a 1-5-1 RvR. That doesn't compare to what Lyco has done and they will surely swap spots. Lycoming could potentially jump Haverford if they lose today as well, but that would be up for more debate than Lyco and Dickinson.

There are some conference finals today that will help shape the Pool C landscape a little better so I will not make any guesses until this evening for who my Pool C selections are. 

[Mr.Right]

I think C-M-S is in....SoS bump to maybe .540ish and 3-4 ranked wins versus 1 or 0 losses.  They pick up another ranked win with Macalester cracking North this week.

And even though I've hardly thought of them this year, the more I look at St. Thomas' profile the more I think they are in good shape with GAC on the bubble or just on wrong side of bubble.

Correction:  St. Thomas may have a RvR issue unless Augsburg comes back in and with Macalester coming in this week.

I think CMS is in as well but Redlands probably out especially if Mary-Hardin Baylor loses in its Championship today. Also, Southwestern is plenty capable of upsetting Trinity TX today so that could throw everything in the air. If Trinity TX and M-H Baylor both get upset you could see 3 West teams get Pool C bids.

[gustiefan04]

I think C-M-S is in....SoS bump to maybe .540ish and 3-4 ranked wins versus 1 or 0 losses.  They pick up another ranked win with Macalester cracking North this week.

And even though I've hardly thought of them this year, the more I look at St. Thomas' profile the more I think they are in good shape with GAC on the bubble or just on wrong side of bubble.

Correction:  St. Thomas may have a RvR issue unless Augsburg comes back in and with Macalester coming in this week.

Luther and Carleton getting the AQ and UWP the likely pool B selection bodes very well  for a second and maybe even a third selection from the MIAC, with so many teams from the conference in the NCAA regional rankings for the north region. St Thomas, GAC and maybe even Augsburg (if they get into the final ranking) are the potential recipients of a pool C in the north.

I suspect St Norbert's, Macalester and any other team from the ARC (like loras) are out.

[Mr.Right]

I think C-M-S is in....SoS bump to maybe .540ish and 3-4 ranked wins versus 1 or 0 losses.  They pick up another ranked win with Macalester cracking North this week.

And even though I've hardly thought of them this year, the more I look at St. Thomas' profile the more I think they are in good shape with GAC on the bubble or just on wrong side of bubble.

Correction:  St. Thomas may have a RvR issue unless Augsburg comes back in and with Macalester coming in this week.

Luther and Carleton getting the AQ and UWP the likely pool B selection bodes very well  for a second and maybe even a third selection from the MIAC, with so many teams from the conference in the NCAA regional rankings for the north region. St Thomas, GAC and maybe even Augsburg (if they get into the final ranking) are the potential recipients of a pool C in the north.

I suspect St Norbert's, Macalester and any other team from the ARC (like loras) are out.

There is not enough Pool C bids available for the North to get 3 IMO....St.Thomas and GAC are on the bubble with Augsburg no chance...

[gustiefan04]

I think C-M-S is in....SoS bump to maybe .540ish and 3-4 ranked wins versus 1 or 0 losses.  They pick up another ranked win with Macalester cracking North this week.

And even though I've hardly thought of them this year, the more I look at St. Thomas' profile the more I think they are in good shape with GAC on the bubble or just on wrong side of bubble.

Correction:  St. Thomas may have a RvR issue unless Augsburg comes back in and with Macalester coming in this week.

Luther and Carleton getting the AQ and UWP the likely pool B selection bodes very well  for a second and maybe even a third selection from the MIAC, with so many teams from the conference in the NCAA regional rankings for the north region. St Thomas, GAC and maybe even Augsburg (if they get into the final ranking) are the potential recipients of a pool C in the north.

I suspect St Norbert's, Macalester and any other team from the ARC (like loras) are out.

There is not enough Pool C bids available for the North to get 3 IMO....St.Thomas and GAC are on the bubble with Augsburg no chance...

I wasn't suggesting the north will get 3 pool C bids, just that those 3 teams will be in consideration. However, I do think there is a good shot the region gets 2 pool C bids, especially with the influence of travel/geography in creating 4 team pods.

I only bring Augsburg in as an outside chance since they knocked off UST, GAC and tied with carelton in the last week, surely a nice bump in their RvR and SOS, which might sneak them into the conversation.

[Mr.Right]

Centre upsets Oglethorpe in PK's.....Final PK trickled in under Oglethorpe's GK....That is a tough loss....

[TyWebb]

Centre upsets Oglethorpe in PK's.....Final PK trickled in under Oglethorpe's GK....That is a tough loss....

Seemed like the ball took forever to spin over the goal as the GK reached back for it. Mr. Right does Oglethorpe now use up another Pool C? Currently, they're ranked fourth in
South Atlantic.

The Fords stun F&M in 2nd OT with a breakaway goal to win the CC.

[Mr.Right]

IDK but that Oglethorpe GK was just a BIT out of shape IMO....

[Mr.Right]

Meanwhile SLU and Ithaca heading to PK's....and

UTD and MHB is 1-0 MHB late but the ref has lost complete control...Yellows flying, Coaches screaming..Complete chaos......Nice stream by UTD and both these teams are solid...Good finish...GREAT CROWD of at least 300...

[PaulNewman]

Working on my Pool Cs....

-- Babson in trouble with no ranked wins and only 1-3-2 IF Springfield ends up ranked, and therefore I am predicting Midd and Williams get in...

-- Ithaca in better shape than I thought....14-2-4//.550ish//2-0-3 RvR

-- Oglethorpe in trouble....13-2-1//.560ish//1-2 RvR

-- Hope despite getting whacked by Calvin 5-0 picked up huge SoS bump to probably .570ish and at 12-3-1 and 2-2 RvR

-- I've looked at Rowan, Will Paterson, RUC, New Paltz and Oneonta several times and I can't figure out who I would pick among them, except Oneonta probably out with RvR of 1-4-2

-- I think we'll see more jumping around and over other teams than usual from week 3 and week 4 of rankings

-- Congrats to Colby!

-- Congrats to St. Joe's for pulling through!


-- Honestly not sure St Norbert is done....compare to North Park who is now sweating....SNC 17-1-1 with SoS probably .525ish and 2-0 or 3-1 on RvR versus North Park at 16-3, maybe .530ish, and 2-2 RvR

-- St Thomas needs Augsburg to get ranked and GAC is competitive at 12-3-1//.560//2-1-1 or 3-2-1

[PaulNewman]

Pool C forecast....

Tufts
CWRU
Cortland St
Rochester
Conn College
Franklin & Marshall
Carnegie Mellon
Johns Hopkins
Ramapo
NYU
Amherst

Lycoming
Midd/Williams
C-M-S
Ithaca
Hope/GAC

That's 16

Bubble -- Hope/GAC, Midd/Williams, North Park, OWU, Oglethorpe, St Thomas, Capital, Mt. Union, William Paterson, Rowan, New Paltz, RUC, Oneonta, Babson, St Norbert, Dickinson

[blooter442]

Surprised that Babson finds itself in trouble, considering the Beavers rolled through the NEWMAC regular season and only has three losses. That being said, the Beavers' SoS seems way below where it has been, at least anecdotally.