2018 Season - National Perspective

[lastguyoffthebench]

MAF what's your Elite 8 // FINAL FOUR projections?

Chicago over Calvin
Messiah over Tufts

Messiah over Chicago

Elite 8:  Conn, Brandeis, JHU, probably Trinity TX

I really have no feel for the South Atlantic, have not watched the ODAC or CAC... NJAC is a mystery and I don't know if they will have a team reach Elite 8.   

Can Brandeis get in... what a brutal remaining schedule with Amherst, @ WashU, @ Chicago, @NYU.   SIX blemishes already and should finish out 3-1 or 2-1-1.  8 blemishes with that SOS should get them in, but probably not.

Elite 8
Chicago over St. Thomas (The MIAC has now become a repeat of conf playoffs to reach Elite 8).
Calvin over Kenyon
Tufts over MSU (if MSU hosts the opening pod, they will advance).
Messiah over SLU

[Christan Shirk]

Not going to agonize over any wrong predictions over at D3soccer.com.  It's a quick turnaround and so much to consider and compare. 

But I am hitting myself for not having Augsburg picked.  That was a clerical mistake on my part as I have noted that their R-v-R changed from 0-2-1 for the Week 3 rankings to 2-2-3 for the final rankings and meant to shortlist them to see if they really had a shot to go from unranked to selected.  But somehow they never got copied into my shortlist and with the rush and sleepiness I never caught my oversight. Re-visiting my comparisons with Augsburg included, I believe I would have put Augsburg where I erroneously had St. Norbert edging the MIAC teams.

I don't think anyone could have expected the MIAC to get 3 at-large berths, but the numbers are in the range that it's not completely off-base.  I just figured Hope's numbers were similar enough and because they would have been on the table from the get-go (with the two teams ahead of them in the Central already in via AQ), I didn't think 19 picks would come and go without them finally getting in. And taking Ithaca over someone like St. Thomas might be a case of underestimating just much the committee values SOS and botching how they would compare the two schools' R-v-R.

Southwestern over Claremont-M-S is one that could have gone either way.  If the SCAC final had been a Trinity win instead of a tie, maybe Claremont stays in front for the lone West region at-large berth.

I probably got a little too intrigued by the idea of unranked UW-Whitewater coming out of nowhere to grab a berth, whether Pool B or C, and should have stayed more conservative with UW-Platteville.

I think that's the worst I've done, 15 of 19, but if I had not been so sloppy with Augsburg, I would have felt just fine with 16 of 19 on a year like this.

[rudy]

MAF what's your Elite 8 // FINAL FOUR projections?

Chicago over Calvin
Messiah over Tufts

Messiah over Chicago

Elite 8:  Conn, Brandeis, JHU, probably Trinity TX

I really have no feel for the South Atlantic, have not watched the ODAC or CAC... NJAC is a mystery and I don't know if they will have a team reach Elite 8.   

Can Brandeis get in... what a brutal remaining schedule with Amherst, @ WashU, @ Chicago, @NYU.   SIX blemishes already and should finish out 3-1 or 2-1-1.  8 blemishes with that SOS should get them in, but probably not.

Elite 8
Chicago over St. Thomas (The MIAC has now become a repeat of conf playoffs to reach Elite 8).
Calvin over Kenyon
Tufts over MSU (if MSU hosts the opening pod, they will advance).
Messiah over SLU

Chicago looks to have the easiest path to final 4.  Not a lot of tough teams to get through.  Calvin, Tufts,  Messiah brackets look pretty similar in terms of difficulty.

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Pool C Predictions

1. Tufts
2. Case
3. F&M
4. UR
5. Cortland
6. Conn
7. CMU
8. Amherst
9. Hopkins
10. NYU
11. Ramapo
12. Hope
13. Williams
14. Lycoming
15. Claremont
16. Adolphus
17. Ithaca
18. Middlebury
19. Camden/North Park
-----------------------------
20. North Park/Camden
21. St. Thomas
22. Capital
23. Babson
24. Oneonta
25. St. Norbert

Others:
Oglethorpe
Endicott
Dickinson
OWU


Southwestern & Augsburg

15/19 isn't too bad 

[Mr.Right]

Seeing NP, C-M-S, and SNC all fail to earn a Pool C just stresses the importance of SOS.

I still cannot believe the love for MIAC and the North Region...

Not even a surprise at this point, over-emphasized metric in SOS, combined with an affinity for a particular conference by the committee, will produce results like this. Same story for pretty much every other sport, and its quite sad, really. The field, as well as fans like us, will miss out on seeing teams who really deserve to be there and would put up a fight against anyone. The old cliché is that "someone has to be the last one out," well, sure, but subjectivity always is a product of bias (whether unconscious or not) and in this case, we get teams like Middlebury, Williams, St. Thomas, Platteville, etc... win out due to factors that you won't find on a stats sheet.

I feel for you...I hear ur complaint loud and clear and actually agree that St.Norbert probably should have snuck in. I would say they could have been the last team IN but honestly not much more than that. I totally understand that the geography of St.Norbert up near Green Bay, WI is not ideal BUT honestly in the future they are going to need to travel a bit to get a couple more solid opponents. You are what about 3-4 hours from Chicago? Maybe the opening weekend of the season somehow get a North Park / Chicago or what not on the schedule and then find another team in that area for a 2nd game on the weekend. Beating a 3-16 (0-11) Lakeland team 14-0 is just not going to cut it. You play St.Scholastica and beat them 6-0 but fail to play UW-Superior who I think is nearby and they were what 18-2-1? I get it...easier said than done to schedule these games because....1. These teams might not want to play you and 2. ur geography in relation to other D3 schools just sucks...It is tough....

I think the Committee could weigh some regions SOS heavuer than others(which I am betting they kind of do anyway)..Like the "Island regions" as someone called them, their SOS of .520 should be like a .560 in New England/ East Coast...IDK there has to be a way to weigh it fairly...Also, I do think the regions with 9-10-12 teams that get ranked based on the # of schools in said region also obviously benefit because it gives you WAY more chances to get Ranked Wins and frankly Ranked games....So maybe a 2-0-0 in the West would be like a 4-0-0 in the East. There has to be a way to "even the playing field" for all regions. Other than that I am not sure what else can be done....MAYBE......Instead of just tracking RvR in the larger regions they should also track RvR v Top Half and RvR v Bottom Half in regions that have more than 8 teams....I mean there are plenty of options and ideas to even the playing field but I get the sense that the committee has no interest in changing much if anything at all....

[PaulNewman]

I wonder if there has ever been a team 14-2-1 with RvR of 4-1 that didn't get in?  That in Week 3 was #1 in the region.  If the SoS was that big of a problem then why put at #1 in Week #3?

I agree that there are some inherent problems with SoS, including the wild fluctuations with getting an unexpected 1-16 team or generously unexpected 14-3 team, and the the geography issues as already noted.

I also think the RvR system has flaws as a lot can change just based on who comes in or out of those last couple of slots in each region.

[Mr.Right]

I wonder if there has ever been a team 14-2-1 with RvR of 4-1 that didn't get in?  That in Week 3 was #1 in the region.  If the SoS was that big of a problem then why put at #1 in Week #3?

I agree that there are some inherent problems with SoS, including the wild fluctuations with getting an unexpected 1-16 team or generously unexpected 14-3 team, and the the geography issues as already noted.

I also think the RvR system has flaws as a lot can change just based on who comes in or out of those last couple of slots in each region.

Agreed....The "suspicious" random addition of Hamilton in the New England rankings in Week 3 basically allowed for Williams and Midd to get into the NCAA's IMO...That is why in New England with 12 ranked teams why not have a criteria of RvR vs Top 6 and a secondary of RvR v Bottom 6. I think that would seperate the teams a bit more.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I wonder if there has ever been a team 14-2-1 with RvR of 4-1 that didn't get in?  That in Week 3 was #1 in the region.  If the SoS was that big of a problem then why put at #1 in Week #3?

I agree that there are some inherent problems with SoS, including the wild fluctuations with getting an unexpected 1-16 team or generously unexpected 14-3 team, and the the geography issues as already noted.

I also think the RvR system has flaws as a lot can change just based on who comes in or out of those last couple of slots in each region.

Agreed....The "suspicious" random addition of Hamilton in the New England rankings in Week 3 basically allowed for Williams and Midd to get into the NCAA's IMO...That is why in New England with 12 ranked teams why not have a criteria of RvR vs Top 6 and a secondary of RvR v Bottom 6. I think that would seperate the teams a bit more.

I've asked a version of this question in other committees, and the answer back is always more interesting.

They aren't looking at the raw numbers and simply saying ... oh, they are now 5-0-1 against vRRO. They are looking at who they are playing and where they are ranked in each region. They do say, ok... they tied against a #2, and won against teams ranked 10, 11, and 12 (I'm making this stuff up). They also look at the other regions and compare to say if a #3 in one region is equivalent to a #3 in another region. So, to some degree as I understand it in a lot of committees including soccer ... they are breaking down the vRRO more than just a hard WL number.

I know people get tired of the basketball references in this group, but it is helpful since a lot of what I have learned with their committees I have heard echoed in sports like soccer. I also know the committee chairs get together at least once a year to talk about strategies and practices ... so things do cross over.

My point being, committees don't tend to look at the WL% of a vRRO. They just look at the "results." It is "Results" Versus Regionally Ranked Opponents, after all. So, they use that term "results" to the fullest, if possible. Who was the opponent, what was the result(s), whatever they can get out of that information more than just W, L, T, percentage, etc.

When I changed my thinking with those two ideas in mind, understanding the vRRO turned on its head. We have been able to make darn good selections in basketball with that mentality (I have not tried to figure out how d3soccer guys do with their selection rate; I'm not trying to compare). When we realized there is more going on than just hard data (i.e. W, L, T, or percentage number) it made the explanation or reasoning sometimes more clear.

I am not going to pretend or figure out what the soccer committees chose to do, but I thought maybe it would be helpful to change the perception or perspective to see if that helps.

New England is a challenge in a lot of sports with the number of teams ranked. It is a popular topic in other sports, actually. Some of you may know this, but just in case ... the ranking numbers are based on the ratio of teams and bids. One could make a counter argument that cutting back the number of teams ranked in New England hurts because it makes it far more difficult to be ranked. It may seem odd to say when you see 12 teams ranked, but there are also far more teams in New England. In other words, the chances and opportunity to be ranked in New England is exactly the same as any other region ... even if it doesn't seem that way on paper.

Final note about rankings from week to week ... remember that committees start from scratch each week. They don't start with the previous week's rankings and see if they should make adjustments. They start from scratch with nothing on their screens or pads. Just because a team was ranked #1 one week does not mean that's where they start. They start in the pile with everyone else. So what got a team ranked #1 one week may not hold up the following week as the data changes. And a lot of data changes with all teams in a region: WL%, SOS, vRRO (which is always changing), H2H, etc., etc., etc.

Comparing from one week to the next rankings can lead down a road of confusion. It is hard to keep from doing. I get caught doing it myself and I've been studying regional rankings for 20 or more years. But you have to look at each week in the vacuum of each week only.

[Domino1195]

Excellent reply. The operative word is "results".  There's more to a win or loss: to whom did you lose or tie and, what kind of game did you play when you lost or tied, etc.

I really thought OWU would get in over Capital. The head to head loss was Cap's worst performance of the year and it was at home. But all Cap's losses where to ranked teams, two going into OT. And the NCAC just hasn't been as strong these past two years. It could have gotten down to the loss to Denison and tie against DePauw - teams they probably should have beaten. And these two results are far from "head scratchers" - Denison cane on strong second half of the year and DePauw - while
erratic - wasn't a slouch. But the last Pool C bid in the GL could have been decided with these considerations,

[PaulNewman]

Paul Newman's Own Pre-NCAA Tournament Top 25


1)  Messiah
2)  Calvin
3)  Chicago
4)  Tufts

5)  Montclair St
6)  Kenyon
7)  St. Joseph's (ME)
8)  CWRU

9)  Rochester
10) Haverford
11) Trinity (TX)
12) Cortland St

13) SLU
14) North Park
15) Franklin & Marshall
16) Connecticut College

17) Johns Hopkins
18) Washington & Lee
19) Lycoming
20) Mary Washington

21) Carnegie Mellon
22) Ramapo
23) John Carroll
24) Eastern
25) Amherst/St. Norbert/Luther/C-M-S/Stevens [TIE]

RV -- Hope, NYU, Ithaca, GAC, Oglethorpe, Williams, Middlebury, Brockport, Augsburg, Capital, Babson, OWU, Endicott, Western Conn, Knox, Oneonta St, Camden, Lynchburg, St Thomas, UW-Platteville, Centre, Carleton, Springfield, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Gordon, Southwestern

[calvin_grad]

Snow and ice and highs in the mid 30s this weekend for the games at Calvin. 

[PaulNewman]

Snow and ice and highs in the mid 30s this weekend for the games at Calvin. 

Since Calvin likely to be hosting both weekends do you see any chance the games will be moved to Hope as they were a few years ago?  What condition is the field in now?

[calvin_grad]

Snow and ice and highs in the mid 30s this weekend for the games at Calvin. 

Since Calvin likely to be hosting both weekends do you see any chance the games will be moved to Hope as they were a few years ago?  What condition is the field in now?

From watching the MIAA tournament, it seems like the field is in pretty good condition now.  There's been a light rain most of the day today.  Tomorrow there is a 40% chance of sprinkles, Thursday is supposed to be dry.  If I had to guess, I would say they should be able to play the games at Calvin this weekend.  But who knows....This is Michigan, where we see all four seasons within a 24 hour window sometimes.

[PaulNewman]

Wow...just saw that C-M-S only gave up 4 goals this year, tied for 2nd in the country with Conn College and of course St Joseph's 1st with 1 GA.  C-M-S is definitely right there with North Park and St. Norbert as biggest snubs.

[JimLahey]

Snow and ice and highs in the mid 30s this weekend for the games at Calvin. 

Since Calvin likely to be hosting both weekends do you see any chance the games will be moved to Hope as they were a few years ago?  What condition is the field in now?

How is hosting for the 2nd weekend determined?

I assume that geography is more important than ranking/record.  Calvin and the other teams they are hosting in the 1st weekend are from Michigan and Wisconsin.  The other teams they would play in the 2nd weekend are considerably east and fairly concentrated.  Case, JCU, and Kenyon are all in the greater Cleveland area (and maybe favorites to win this 1st weekend) and CMU, Westminster, and Capital are all nearby, so I would assume one of those schools would host the 2nd weekend.  I looked at flights to Lansing (which i assume is where teams would fly into to play Calvin) and they are much more expensive then a more major city like Cleveland/Pittsburgh.