2018 Great Lakes Region

[bestfancle]

That Ruple for BW pulled a rabbit out of his hat again. They could have even stole the game from JCU, but I figured as soon as it went to overtime, JCU had it locked up.

[PaulNewman]

Not totally following the line of argument or the conclusions.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIJ4OJ1wH3o

Of course the 1969 version was much better....

[PaulNewman]

Great Lakes NCAA Tourney Outlook for Pool Cs....

Contenders (with first ranking week SoS) -- CWRU (.607), Kenyon (.572) , OWU (.563), Capital  (.595), CMU (.647), JCU (.626) , ONU (.540), DePauw (.494), Mt. Union (.525), Grove City (.501), Wabash (.508)

Let's go backwards first....Grove City and Wabash will not see any significant rise in SoS given the remaining schedule (unless Wabash gets to NCAC tourney final).  Grove City is 0-1-1 in RvR which will likely hold.  Wabash now is 0-3 on RvR, with DePauw as only remaining team left that might end up ranked.  Wabash could get 2 ranked wins in NCAC tourney if play OWU and Kenyon but of course 2 wins there gets them the AQ.  Grove City needs their AQ (and could be a tough 1st round game for anyone).

Mt. Union also is unlikely to see a significant change in SoS and now is on the low side.  They might get a modest boost with the OAC tourney.  That said, they are currently 2-1 on RvR (wins over CWRU and Cap with a loss to JCU).  ONU is left as another possible ranked win IF ONU remains ranked.

DePauw has a surprisingly low SoS and will get a boost from Kenyon visiting and an away match with Wabash that likely will be mostly offset by Oberlin.  The Tigers could get a boost from 2 games in the NCAC tourney (IF they qualify).  DePauw, however, I will say is 1-0-1 on RvR (presuming Wash U ends up ranked) with a shot at another ranked win Saturday vs Kenyon, with a chance of Wabash getting ranked (game to be played) and another shot if they make the NCAC tourney.  Current record is solid at 10-2-3.  DePauw easily could up end something like 2-1-1 or 3-1-1 on RvR with SoS ending up north of .520.

Ohio Northern at 11-4-1 will get a decent boost on SoS from games with Capital and away at Otterbein and Mt. Union.  ONU currently is 1-3 on RvR with a shot at picking up 2-3 additional wins.  I would say ONU is still alive if they can gets wins over Capital and Mt. Union (assuming Mt. Union stays ranked).

John Carroll sits at 9-4-1 with a very high SoS that might drop marginally and currently on RvR is 2-3-1.  Another ranked win would be helpful but only chance for that is OAC tourney where JCU will have as good a chance as anyone.

Carnegie Mellon has one of the highest SOs's in the country at .647, and that will only go up with away games at Emory and Rochester and a home match with Case.  CMU might challenge Chicago for top SoS in the country.  CMU now at 9-3-2 with current RvR at 2-3-2.  If Grove City gets ranked (unlikely) that would be another win, and of course 3 good chances left for more from the UAA gauntlet.  Let's say CMU has a SoS of .675 and ends up 10-4-3 with RvR of 3-4-2 (or better).  I would say very hard to keep them out....but they probably do need to get at least one win in the last 3 UAAs.  CMU no doubt is destined to be a hot topic at bid time (along with fellow UAA bottom-dweller, Emory).

Capital has a very good SoS which should hold fairly well and now is 11-3 with RvR of 1-3.  They did beat Wabash on the chance that Wabash gets ranked (doubtful), and they have ONU left and then the OAC tourney.  Capital could really use another ranked win (and for that win to hold as a ranked win if they beat ONU), and also would benefit from Mt. Union dropping out of rankings.  Also dependent on JCU remaining in the rankings as the only current ranked win.

OWU has a decent SoS that will rise from the Kenyon game, drop slightly and then go up most likely with the NCAC tourney.  They'll be fine on SoS although not close to the JCU or especially CMU range.  OWU, however, is 2-2-1 on RvR, could hope for another draw if DePauw gets ranked and can also hope for ONU and/or JCU to drop out.  They would get another win if Wabash gets ranked.  And of course OWU should have a lot to say about the NCAC AQ.

Kenyon sits at 11-1-2 with a decent SoS that might drop slightly (DePauw away offset by Oberlin away and last game with Allegheny) and then pick up with the NCAC tourney.  RvR  currently is an underwhelming 1-1-2.  The Lords need JCU to stay ranked and a Wabash ranking would help them too.  Only other chances for ranked wins are if can win away at DePauw and DePauw sneaks into the rankings (not so likely if DPU loses to Kenyon) and what would likely be a NCAC final rematch with OWU (which with a win would of course mean the AQ and no worries).

CWRU currently is top dog and is almost certain to take a Great Lakes Pool C with chances not great for them to win the UAA AQ.  CWRU's SoS of .607 will rise substantially with the 3 remaining UAA games all away.  RvR is an impressive 5-2-1 (presuming Wash U and Mt. Union remaining in), so even with 3 losses to end the season they would be at 5-5-1 or at worst 4-5-1.  Maybe they need a draw out of the last 3 but I see them as a lock, and based on form I doubt they will go 0-3.

So....Based on the above, CWRU in my view is a lock.  Grove City and Wabash appear to have little chance at a Pool C and need AQs.  Wabash is a big wild card because of the impact for several teams (Cap, OWU, Kenyon, maybe DePauw) IF the Little Giants get ranked, but I'm going to assume that will not happen.  ONU staying ranked also impacts several teams (like JCU who needs that ranked win).

That leaves Kenyon, OWU, Capital, CMU, JCU, ONU, Mt Union and DePauw.  DePauw and Mt Union look like longshots with the caveat that either or both have a decent chance of getting to 3 ranked wins.  I would expect that at least two of the OACs will be knocked out in the head to head OAC competition (which will take out ranked wins for someone).  In the end, I don't see an OAC team overtaking Kenyon, OWU and CMU.  Those latter three certainly could play themselves out of contention (and Kenyon would be in trouble if they ended up with no ranked wins), but otherwise Capital seems the closest and they are sitting on just one ranked win with potential for 1-2 more in the OAC tourney.  There is always a chance that a surprise team takes a conference tournament, but a betting man would go with either Kenyon or OWU winning the NCAC AQ.  That would leave one of them vying with CMU and perhaps a second OAC team (among Cap, Mt. Union, JCU, ONU).

The final question is how many at large slots Great Lakes will get.  The answer is almost certainly 2-4.  Assuming only 2 and assuming CWRU is one of them, then the other could come down to Kenyon/OWU and CMU.  I'm going to guess there will be 3 slots (and a second OAC could definitely get into that discussion if JCU gets to 3 ranked wins with that high SoS or Capital gets to 2-3 ranked wins) with the OAC praying hard for 4.

[PaulNewman]

As the Kenyon homer....

I don't think Kenyon's problem is grit.  I doubt that any of these young men on any of these teams have manhood issues.  At any rate, the Lords are very aggressive and when playing well can take a good team out of their game.  From what I saw, Kenyon did not allow OWU to get into any kind of rhythm or flow, whereas against DePauw OWU looked like the OWU teams of old passing around at will, dominating possession, and creating decent to good chances out of their possession.  OWU DID get a few very good looks at goal versus Kenyon but all or maybe all but one resulted from unforced, gross errors by the Lords.  The problem for Kenyon is that they have been making those misplays consistently and in the exact same spots on the field.  That's what happened against CWRU...CWRU pounced and punished them while OWU missed on a couple of very open looks (and which is unlikely to happen in any rematch).  It is noteworthy that both of Kenyon's heartbreaking Elite 8 losses in recent years happened on similar errors on the back line.  There is too much responsibility on Lowry without Myers there, and so Kenyon will not beat good teams with continued serious lapses on the back line and between back line and GK.  Credit to OWU for hanging around but Kenyon had a bunch of good chances and huge shots advantage and IMO gave up 2 points they should have had -- even with, again as a homer, one of my favorite refs, Khary Williams, doing the Lords no favors, giving OWU a free kick right on the 18 on a very soft call where there was no real threat (and the defender had nowhere to go but to stand where he was) just minutes after not calling what appeared to be a far more egregious over the back foul on the other end.  At one point Kenyon had 9 fouls to zero for OWU.  Kenyon is playing a ton of players, and at least 5-6 of them are frosh.  I like all the different forwards Brown is throwing out there, but they could use more cohesion in the midfield and definitely need to clean up the action in the back (including the interplay with the GK).  Anderson is having IMO a superb season but they could use another very strong presence and distributor in the middle of the park.  The kid playing holding mid has had some good moments but he also like a couple of the backliners has gotten caught playing too slow and/or holding the ball too long and getting stripped in a bad spot.

All that said, I have tremendous respect for OWU, and they do have some very dangerous talent.  As I said before, I am always convinced they will beat Kenyon.  They have a handful of super-skilled players and a good mix of strength and speed...and I do agree that they could be a very tough out.  I don't think they are back to the level of a few years ago just yet, but Kenyon isn't nearly as strong as they were 2-4 years ago either.  Both will be tough teams to beat in one game scenarios but we'll have to see if either of them has the talent and more so the consistency to string together 3-4 big wins.

CWRU and CMU are very good and very tough, but I like CWRU better because they seem a bit more dangerous.  CWRU bides their time but they have a couple of lethal finishers.  CMU is very solid but seem accustomed to finding ways to lose and I wonder if they are impacted by the volatility on the sidelines with constant ranting and screaming.  The CWRU coach, an OWU alum, has done an outstanding job and I will be rooting for them as long as they aren't playing Kenyon.  I imagine CWRU is not the easiest UAA to build a soccer program.

I also think the OAC is again stronger than in some prior years.  The names have changed a bit from last year, but Capital, Mt. Union, JCU and ONU all seem dangerous, and they are a real threat to good teams who aren't used to playing a lot on turf.

And Grove City must be pretty good.  They could benefit from a 1st round matchup where someone is really underestimating them.

[ncac_dad]

I had a chance to attend the OWU/Kenyon match on Wednesday. I felt Kenyon dominated the first half in terms of aggressive play, winning 50/50's, and pressuring the OWU midfield and back line. However, as a couple of people said before, Kenyon did not finish some scoring opportunities. Brush and Branche bent, but did not break. JP in goal for OWU did a good job.

During the second half, I think OWU matched or exceeded Kenyon's physical play. However, OWU defensive midfield allowed too much of a counter attack by the speedy and crafty #10 at times.

Overall, the outcome was fair, however, both teams left clear goal opportunities on the table by over passing or extra dribbling. Similar to Kenyon, OWU does finish on the vast array of shots that they take during matches.

OWU had a shot to take the lead in the NCAC and did not capitalize on it. I agree with the others on Kenyon or OWU likely being Pool C qualifiers, if they do their job with their remaining matches going into the NCAC tournament.

[PaulNewman]

I had a chance to attend the OWU/Kenyon match on Wednesday. I felt Kenyon dominated the first half in terms of aggressive play, winning 50/50's, and pressuring the OWU midfield and back line. However, as a couple of people said before, Kenyon did not finish some scoring opportunities. Brush and Branche bent, but did not break. JP in goal for OWU did a good job.

During the second half, I think OWU matched or exceeded Kenyon's physical play. However, OWU defensive midfield allowed too much of a counter attack by the speedy and crafty #10 at times.

Overall, the outcome was fair, however, both teams left clear goal opportunities on the table by over passing or extra dribbling. Similar to Kenyon, OWU does finish on the vast array of shots that they take during matches.

OWU had a shot to take the lead in the NCAC and did not capitalize on it. I agree with the others on Kenyon or OWU likely being Pool C qualifiers, if they do their job with their remaining matches going into the NCAC tournament.

The fouls did even out in the 2nd half, 10-10.  However, Kenyon still outshot OWU in the 2nd half and OTs 18-7, including 5-0 in OTs, with a handful of clean chances from the run of play.

I agree with you about Brush and Branche (and Baughman).  Very good size for CBs and good players.

OWU is in good shape.  I personally can't take the anxiety involved as a fan, but the burgeoning rivalry between the two soccer programs I think has been fantastic for the NCAC and for D3 soccer writ large.  Some of the games over the past 5 years have been classics.

OWU-Kenyon has got to be the #1 or #2 current rivalry.  Before an uproar ensues, I'm sure that historically Williams-Amherst takes the prize, with Messiah-E'town in the conversation, Wheaton-North Park and Calvin-Hope, Lynchburg-Roanoke, maybe Lynchburg-W&L.....and I'm sure there are others like Tufts-Brandeis, Colby-Bates, etc, etc...I know DePauw and Wabash have one of the oldest football rivalries of any divisions and play for the Monon Bell prize (bell from some old railroad).

[Domino1195]

As the Kenyon homer....

I don't think Kenyon's problem is grit.  I doubt that any of these young men on any of these teams have manhood issues.  At any rate, the Lords are very aggressive and when playing well can take a good team out of their game.  From what I saw, Kenyon did not allow OWU to get into any kind of rhythm or flow, whereas against DePauw OWU looked like the OWU teams of old passing around at will, dominating possession, and creating decent to good chances out of their possession.  OWU DID get a few very good looks at goal versus Kenyon but all or maybe all but one resulted from unforced, gross errors by the Lords.  The problem for Kenyon is that they have been making those misplays consistently and in the exact same spots on the field.  That's what happened against CWRU...CWRU pounced and punished them while OWU missed on a couple of very open looks (and which is unlikely to happen in any rematch).  It is noteworthy that both of Kenyon's heartbreaking Elite 8 losses in recent years happened on similar errors on the back line.  There is too much responsibility on Lowry without Myers there, and so Kenyon will not beat good teams with continued serious lapses on the back line and between back line and GK.  Credit to OWU for hanging around but Kenyon had a bunch of good chances and huge shots advantage and IMO gave up 2 points they should have had -- even with, again as a homer, one of my favorite refs, Khary Williams, doing the Lords no favors, giving OWU a free kick right on the 18 on a very soft call where there was no real threat (and the defender had nowhere to go but to stand where he was) just minutes after not calling what appeared to be a far more egregious over the back foul on the other end.  At one point Kenyon had 9 fouls to zero for OWU.  Kenyon is playing a ton of players, and at least 5-6 of them are frosh.  I like all the different forwards Brown is throwing out there, but they could use more cohesion in the midfield and definitely need to clean up the action in the back (including the interplay with the GK).  Anderson is having IMO a superb season but they could use another very strong presence and distributor in the middle of the park.  The kid playing holding mid has had some good moments but he also like a couple of the backliners has gotten caught playing too slow and/or holding the ball too long and getting stripped in a bad spot.

All that said, I have tremendous respect for OWU, and they do have some very dangerous talent.  As I said before, I am always convinced they will beat Kenyon.  They have a handful of super-skilled players and a good mix of strength and speed...and I do agree that they could be a very tough out.  I don't think they are back to the level of a few years ago just yet, but Kenyon isn't nearly as strong as they were 2-4 years ago either.  Both will be tough teams to beat in one game scenarios but we'll have to see if either of them has the talent and more so the consistency to string together 3-4 big wins.

CWRU and CMU are very good and very tough, but I like CWRU better because they seem a bit more dangerous.  CWRU bides their time but they have a couple of lethal finishers.  CMU is very solid but seem accustomed to finding ways to lose and I wonder if they are impacted by the volatility on the sidelines with constant ranting and screaming.  The CWRU coach, an OWU alum, has done an outstanding job and I will be rooting for them as long as they aren't playing Kenyon.  I imagine CWRU is not the easiest UAA to build a soccer program.

I also think the OAC is again stronger than in some prior years.  The names have changed a bit from last year, but Capital, Mt. Union, JCU and ONU all seem dangerous, and they are a real threat to good teams who aren't used to playing a lot on turf.

And Grove City must be pretty good.  They could benefit from a 1st round matchup where someone is really underestimating them.

For the three/four games half/games I've seen: Kenyon's Achilles' Heel  is central defense.

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon 3 DePauw 0....what's up with no video from a school like DePauw?

[Domino1195]

NCAC spots 3-6 got very interesting today. Denison and DePauw dug deeper holes while Wooster jumps into a favorable position to make the conference tourney. The Wabash-DePauw contest on Wednesday could put an end to DePauw's season; Wooster needs to be vigilant at Allegheny. Denison has to win - can't go to OWU with it all on the line.

[Domino1195]

Camera no longer functioning at ONU - but that's an insane score at ONU - Cap 6-0 into the second. ONU changed keepers after the third goal - not his fault - Cap playing with intensity tonight - obvi.

[PaulNewman]

Domino, in all seriousness, what is the deal with Chewy Gordon?  What can you tell us about him?  Just like West, this is his senior year.  I remember his name as someone good but never expected anything like this.

[Domino1195]

This is the healthiest he's been in four years- phenomenal training off season. You need to see his effort to create the first two goals. Wouldn't describe him as flashy - but he's scored some beautiful goals on his own effort. But he's smart in knowing how to drift and find spaces where the ball might be. This year it's just come together for him: health, opportunities and - most importantly - finishing the chances you are given. Greg Knox has been very supportive to his production also.

[Domino1195]

Case with a goal 23 seconds in - kudos to AR1 for being in perfect position to make the call. A free kick from just inside the attacking half headed home for the second. But the game has been predominantly played between the 18's - Westminster lacking composure in the attacking half.

Was curious to see Westminster before their showdown with Grove City next Saturday. Could be an interesting game.

[PaulNewman]

Tasty battle today at 4:00 between Indiana NCAC rivals DePauw and Wabash, as the Little Giants are hosting the Tigers at Mud Hollow (aka Fischer Field).  The Tigers will travel the 29.5 miles from Greencastle to Crawfordsville on US231-North.  They may be playing for a spot in the NCAC tourney in addition to the historic Tiny Mason Jar Jug.  Soundtrack to Hoosiers in the background.  No doubt Brad Stevens will be watching this one on stream (except of course there appears to be no stream).

[1970s NESCAC Player]

I'm going to go with Wesleyan....last game of season...home game....they somehow played Haverford, Tufts, etc close, and they beat Bowdoin.  Of course they haven't scored in their last 7 or so NESCAC games except for Trinity.  And I don't see St Joe's blowing their perfect season, especially in final home game of regular season.

PN, you posted inadvertently on the wrong thread . . .  Also, could you tell Brad to do something about the Celts sucking?