D1 vs D3 comparison

[truenorth]

Falconer, Messiah is without question the top flight D3 team over the last 15 years or so.  They deserve reverence and respect.  That said, they are not a D1 team, and the observation that they've held their own in scrimmages doesn't mean a whole lot...  D1 teams are probably a lot less focused on results in scrimmages than the D3 teams they occasionally scrimmage with.  Plus, Messiah is a true "one off" in D3 insofar as they sometimes attract D1 caliber players because of the college's Christian mission and values.  What goes for Messiah is not generalizable to the rest of the myriad D3 schools...

[PaulNewman]

Falconer, Messiah is without question the top flight D3 team over the last 15 years or so.  They deserve reverence and respect.  That said, they are not a D1 team, and the observation that they've held their own in scrimmages doesn't mean a whole lot...  D1 teams are probably a lot less focused on results in scrimmages than the D3 teams they occasionally scrimmage with.  Plus, Messiah is a true "one off" in D3 insofar as they sometimes attract D1 caliber players because of the college's Christian mission and values.  What goes for Messiah is not generalizable to the rest of the myriad D3 schools...

You again wrote more succinctly what I was writing simultaneously, which was....

I will admit up front that I personally am less interested in how D3 teams would fare against D1s, as it is so hypothetical and IMO there is a tendency to overrate how well D3 teams, as opposed to individual players, would do.  So apologies for not starting another thread but I think my questions/comments are still reasonably relevant to the original topic.

The decisions of individual players and how they make them are not hypothetical, and so....

1)  Falconer, or other Messiah followers, I'm curious if you think the players who are D1 level players chose Messiah because it is Messiah with little consideration of NCAA Division.  In other words, did Messiah being in D3 have little to no impact in terms of the choice of Messiah.

2) It seems we could do a breakdown of categories for this discussion....D3 players for whom D3 is really the only choice, stronger players who do have a choice between D3 and mid- to lower level D1 (e.g. NESCAC, Centennial, Messiah, etc vs Patriot/Ivy), and then players who project to be real D1 studs (recruited pretty exclusively as D1 prospects) who still choose D3.  If we think of this on a continuum it would be interesting how many players in D3 fell in each category, and how many in what I would call the "non-blurry" group at the top end land in D3 and for what reasons (again, the Messiah example seems to me to be at least in some instances its own category). 

3)  And this is more a correlate of the thread topic...I'm wondering if there is less separation between higher end D3 and D1 in soccer as compared to football and basketball.  I could be wrong, but I'm assuming the very best D3 basketball teams would not be competitive with mid to lower level D1s.  This of course, if true, would make some sense in terms of the scholarship factor.  And is the blurring with soccer in terms of some D3s arguably being competitive with some D1s sort of unique or also seen with lacrosse, volleyball, swimming, track and field, etc....

[Buck O.]

The Massey Ratings would give us a better overall rankings if they did not factor in scoring differential.

It is interesting to run the Massey match-up.  Washington University played an exhibition against Saint Louis and lost 4-1.  Massey gives SLU an 80% chance of a 2-1 win.  I think the differential would be significantly greater if it were played today.

I'm not really following you here, WUPHF.  If you ignore scoring differential, you're throwing away potentially valuable information.  That should reduce the quality of your forecast, not increase it.  There's a difference between a 7-0 win and a 2-1 win and I think it's reasonable to recognize that.

[blooter442]

3)  And this is more a correlate of the thread topic...I'm wondering if there is less separation between higher end D3 and D1 in soccer as compared to football and basketball.  I could be wrong, but I'm assuming the very best D3 basketball teams would not be competitive with mid to lower level D1s.  This of course, if true, would make some sense in terms of the scholarship factor.  And is the blurring with soccer in terms of some D3s arguably being competitive with some D1s sort of unique or also seen with lacrosse, volleyball, swimming, track and field, etc....

I've had this conversation with a number of people. Just my opinion, but I think D3 soccer and D1 soccer are much closer than D3 vs. D1 football or basketball.

In addition to depth, my observation is that the big things that D1 athletic teams in each of the three sports have over D3 teams are superior fitness, physicality, and size. As truenorth pointed out, D1 soccer players do generally possess superior technical ability but I do not think that the gap between D1 and D3 in terms of technical ability is as great as the difference in size/athleticism/physicality. With that in mind, I think soccer is a game where technical ability can compensate for a lack of size/athleticism/speed, whereas football and basketball, size/athleticism/speed are seemingly paramount.

Of course, this is ultimately apples and oranges, but just my opinion.

[truenorth]

Back to the notion of Messiah being a D3 outlier...  My sense is that many student athletes choose Messiah because of its clear Christian mission and values.  So it's likely some D1 caliber athletes choose Messiah over a D1 school for those reasons.  You simply don't find many D1 schools with as clear and cohesive a religious mission.  When you consider the traditional Catholic universities like Notre Dame, Boston College, Villanova, Georgetown, Providence, etc., they have become increasingly secular over the past 40 years, particularly in their athletics...

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Back to the notion of Messiah being a D3 outlier...  My sense is that many student athletes choose Messiah because of its clear Christian mission and values.  So it's likely some D1 caliber athletes choose Messiah over a D1 school for those reasons.  You simply don't find many D1 schools with as clear and cohesive a religious mission.  When you consider the traditional Catholic universities like Notre Dame, Boston College, Villanova, Georgetown, Providence, etc., they have become increasingly secular over the past 40 years, particularly in their athletics...

While this is true about Messiah's religious basis... some players will find a way to fit into such a scope to play for a program like Messiah. So yes, they may be attracted for the religious side, but they also may go there for the soccer and make it work. Seen it on a few occasions. I think Messiah has a hook for those who want to focus a little more on their religious background, but on paper that can be a challenge for recruiting. However, that doesn't mean good players don't want to still go to those schools - in fact, I believe that sometimes they are more drawn to those schools. That's why Hope, Calvin, Wheaton (Ill. mainly), and others tend to have very strong athletic departments. That said, I also believe in a case like Messiah some students are willing to make a bit of a sacrifice (whatever that is for that student) to be on a program that is as successful as Messiah.

[Buck O.]

I stated this poorly. Here's a better shot at it.

Where would the top D3 teams like Messiah/Chicago/Tufts be ranked within the D1 rankings?

Where would a top-25 D3 team like Luther/Ithica/Claremont McKenna be ranked within the D1 rankings?

Finally,

Where would a bottom D1 team like VMI/Wofford/UNC-Asheville be ranked within the D3 rankings?

The Massey ratings actually include ratings for all teams across all divisions, so we can use them to get Ken Massey's answer to your questions.

At the top end of D3:

Massey has Chicago rated #1 in D3 and #30 overall, so they fit between SIUE (#26 in D1/#29 overall) and Pacific (#27 in D1/#32 overall).

He has Conn College rated #2 in D3 and #62 overall, so they fit between Wisconsin (#46 in D1/#61 overall) and West Va. (#47 in D1/#63 overall).

Tufts is rated #3 in D3 and #82 overall, so they fit between St. Louis (#59 in D1/#80 overall) and Old Dominion (#60 in D1/#83 overall).

The second question is a little trickier because Massey thinks that Claremont, Ithaca and Luther are all well below #25 in D3.

He ranks Lycoming #25 in D3 and #321 overall, which fits between American (#166 in D1/#309 overall) and Gardner-Webb (#167 in D1/#325 overall)

And, just to choose one of your candidates, he ranks Claremont #67 in D3 and #468 overall, which fits between Detroit (#186 in D1/#443 overall) and Wofford (#187 in D1/#470 overall)

Finally, the bottom of D1.  Massey rates VMI as #206 in D1 and #935 overall.  They would fit between Geneva (#230 in D3/#930 overall) and Hardin-Simmons (#231 in D3/#936), so, pretty low.

The only problem being they don't necessarily have the same data to use those rankings. Most D1s (if not all) are playing against mainly D1s. Same with D3s. So while he has rankings, they don't cross pollenate enough to understand how they compare against one another. I know he makes adjustments to try and make it happen, but it just doesn't have enough to be accurate in a way to give that comparison any credence.

I'll use another example. D1 has the RPI and it is relatively good in understanding strengths of schedules and such because D1 has a lot of cross-country play amongst most teams.

There technically is an RPI in DIII as well, but it can't be used as a fair representation because DIII schools don't play across the country nearly as much as would be needed. So we can't tell if the RPI is giving a good representation due to the lack of data.

I know what Massey is doing, but I don't think he can escape the fact there isn't enough games between D1 and D3 schools (that even count for that matter) to be able to actually do that kind of overall ranking.

It certainly gives an interesting point of view, but I am not sure it is that accurate or reliable.

I would point out that the ability to compare D1 and D3 schools doesn't rely solely on games between teams in those divisions.  If D1 schools play D2 schools and D2 schools play D3 schools, those results will also contribute to the comparison across all three divisions (and more, as I think he has non-NCAA schools included as well).  But the points you make are still fair ones.  With such limited data, the degree of confidence you can have in the results is correspondingly limited.

[Falconer]

Back to the notion of Messiah being a D3 outlier...  My sense is that many student athletes choose Messiah because of its clear Christian mission and values.  So it's likely some D1 caliber athletes choose Messiah over a D1 school for those reasons.  You simply don't find many D1 schools with as clear and cohesive a religious mission.  When you consider the traditional Catholic universities like Notre Dame, Boston College, Villanova, Georgetown, Providence, etc., they have become increasingly secular over the past 40 years, particularly in their athletics...

Excellent thoughts, truenorth, thank you for putting things so clearly.

I don't see any Falcon team I can remember being capable of consistently beating top-40 D1 teams, but at least a few Falcon teams would probably have been capable of winning a majority of their games in some of the less competitive D1 conferences. Obviously there is no way of knowing this, and anyone is fully entitled to be very skeptical of my view.

Even at an "outlier" like Messiah, the presence of a genuine high D1 level player is the exception, not the rule. Perhaps half a dozen Falcons of that type since 2000, when the first title came. IMO Gruthoff is one of them and West (this year only) another, and that's just not going to get it done in the ACC or the Big Ten.

You're certainly right about their mission being a factor in drawing such players—especially when siblings are involved. It's hard to think of any Falcon teams that did not include at least one player whose brother(s) also played at Messiah. Families choose the school for religious reasons—as well as the soccer. If one son has a great experience others follow. In truly rare instances, an exceptional athlete makes that choice, for the same reasons that some exceptional students make that choice (more of these than the top athletes for sure).

[Saint of Old]

Call me niave, but I do not think the gap between a D1 and D3 soccer player is that big.
Baseball Yes.
Football (American) Yes.
Basketball Hellz Yes.

Soccer, not so much.
It is all aclimation.

I played with a few kids who went professional or for their countries during and after college. (MLS/A-League/International professional leagues).

Some of the guys who did not go pro were  (in my opinion more gifted) than guys who did.

Its all about aclimation, there are some real Ballers in D3 soccer. Several International kids, and home grown monsters.
For whatever reason, lucky for us they choose to play in D3 as opposed to other leagues.

I would wager that if you took the top half of players from  the top 25 D3 squads and drop them in a semi-pro  league in Europe, quite a few would develop  into full fledged professionals over the next few years after focusing on their craft as opposed to 10 page mid-term papers due the next week.

The average fan does not get that the secret of this game is game in ball control and manipulation over all else (except for confidence).

[rudy]

Call me niave, but I do not think the gap between a D1 and D3 soccer player is that big.
Baseball Yes.
Football (American) Yes.
Basketball Hellz Yes.

Soccer, not so much.
It is all aclimation.

I played with a few kids who went professional or for their countries during and after college. (MLS/A-League/International professional leagues).

Some of the guys who did not go pro were  (in my opinion more gifted) than guys who did.

Its all about aclimation, there are some real Ballers in D3 soccer. Several International kids, and home grown monsters.
For whatever reason, lucky for us they choose to play in D3 as opposed to other leagues.

I would wager that if you took the top half of players from  the top 25 D3 squads and drop them in a semi-pro  league in Europe, quite a few would develop  into full fledged professionals over the next few years after focusing on their craft as opposed to 10 page mid-term papers due the next week.

The average fan does not get that the secret of this game is game in ball control and manipulation over all else (except for confidence).

+K Saint. I hear a lot about size being a factor for college recruiters both at D1 and D3. In this board size is mentioned a lot. Ball control and intelligence along with speed of mind and play are often overlooked. As a parent of a smaller player I have seen it first hand. One factor in chosing Messiah over others is the staff knew after attending one clinic that he was on their list of top 5 recruits regardless of size.  They know a player when they see it. Too many coaches, including many Nescac, are blinded by size. Look at Messiah roster over the years and they typically have many starters 5' 8" or shorter.  The argument is sometimes the style of play in a particular league requires large players. Maybe they should change style of play to utilize skill and smart team players and not be so concerned about scoring only on set plays and recruit highly skilled and savvy soccer players first and foremost. My 2 cents

[Saint of Old]

And a +K to you as well and to your boy.
Over the last 40 years the best two players (arguably) have been two short South Americans.

I am 5 12' myself, and I think that guys 2 inches or more taller than I am have a bit of a disadvantage in the game.
A low center of gravity does wonders in terms of turning radius and overall manipulation.
There are tall guys that are really skillful ballers, but I think this is more rare than people think.

Also, you hit it on the head, brain speed is much much more important than height.

SLU has had a 6 6' center back for the past 16 years or so, and this works I think in that particular position, but still not necessary.
The sweeper I played with was 5 9'.

Brain Speed/Foot Speed combination is what it takes, this is not basketball or American football.

[rudy]

And a +K to you as well and to your boy.
Over the last 40 years the best two players (arguably) have been two short South Americans.

I am 5 12' myself, and I think that guys 2 inches or more taller than I am have a bit of a disadvantage in the game.
A low center of gravity does wonders in terms of turning radius and overall manipulation.
There are tall guys that are really skillful ballers, but I think this is more rare than people think.

Also, you hit it on the head, brain speed is much much more important than height.

SLU has had a 6 6' center back for the past 16 years or so, and this works I think in that particular position, but still not necessary.
The sweeper I played with was 5 9'.

Brain Speed/Foot Speed combination is what it takes, this is not basketball or American football.

Iniesta one of my favorites. 5' 7" and not exactly a physical specimen relative to strength and traditional view of an athlete. Slightly built. But a magician on the field.  Pele and Messi short in stature but physically stronger build than Iniesta. All well under 6ft. Maradonna another. Like you said sometimes shorter players have and advantage over taller players. Short turn radius, often quicker in short distances, etc. Messiah did a mission type trip to Colombia summer 2017 where they played several amateur and one pro team.  Most were shorter players but my son said they all were extremely comfortable with the ball at their feet.

[Buck O.]

Call me niave, but I do not think the gap between a D1 and D3 soccer player is that big.
Baseball Yes.
Football (American) Yes.
Basketball Hellz Yes.

Soccer, not so much.
It is all aclimation.

I played with a few kids who went professional or for their countries during and after college. (MLS/A-League/International professional leagues).

Some of the guys who did not go pro were  (in my opinion more gifted) than guys who did.

Its all about aclimation, there are some real Ballers in D3 soccer. Several International kids, and home grown monsters.
For whatever reason, lucky for us they choose to play in D3 as opposed to other leagues.

I would wager that if you took the top half of players from  the top 25 D3 squads and drop them in a semi-pro  league in Europe, quite a few would develop  into full fledged professionals over the next few years after focusing on their craft as opposed to 10 page mid-term papers due the next week.

The average fan does not get that the secret of this game is game in ball control and manipulation over all else (except for confidence).

+K Saint. I hear a lot about size being a factor for college recruiters both at D1 and D3. In this board size is mentioned a lot. Ball control and intelligence along with speed of mind and play are often overlooked. As a parent of a smaller player I have seen it first hand. One factor in chosing Messiah over others is the staff knew after attending one clinic that he was on their list of top 5 recruits regardless of size.  They know a player when they see it. Too many coaches, including many Nescac, are blinded by size. Look at Messiah roster over the years and they typically have many starters 5' 8" or shorter.  The argument is sometimes the style of play in a particular league requires large players. Maybe they should change style of play to utilize skill and smart team players and not be so concerned about scoring only on set plays and recruit highly skilled and savvy soccer players first and foremost. My 2 cents

It was interesting to read your thoughts on this.  When he was a freshman, my son played against the Milton 2015 team.  He was quite impressed with the team in general and with your son in particular, whom he thought was the best player on the field.  As you know, a number of the kids on that team went on to D1 programs, including one player who went to Maryland, and my son was very surprised that Shay wasn't going to a top-level D1 school.  That led to a discussion of the importance of size in recruiting, which was personally relevant to my son given that, while he's bigger than Shay, he's still a bit shorter than average.

[rudy]

Call me niave, but I do not think the gap between a D1 and D3 soccer player is that big.
Baseball Yes.
Football (American) Yes.
Basketball Hellz Yes.

Soccer, not so much.
It is all aclimation.

I played with a few kids who went professional or for their countries during and after college. (MLS/A-League/International professional leagues).

Some of the guys who did not go pro were  (in my opinion more gifted) than guys who did.

Its all about aclimation, there are some real Ballers in D3 soccer. Several International kids, and home grown monsters.
For whatever reason, lucky for us they choose to play in D3 as opposed to other leagues.

I would wager that if you took the top half of players from  the top 25 D3 squads and drop them in a semi-pro  league in Europe, quite a few would develop  into full fledged professionals over the next few years after focusing on their craft as opposed to 10 page mid-term papers due the next week.

The average fan does not get that the secret of this game is game in ball control and manipulation over all else (except for confidence).

+K Saint. I hear a lot about size being a factor for college recruiters both at D1 and D3. In this board size is mentioned a lot. Ball control and intelligence along with speed of mind and play are often overlooked. As a parent of a smaller player I have seen it first hand. One factor in chosing Messiah over others is the staff knew after attending one clinic that he was on their list of top 5 recruits regardless of size.  They know a player when they see it. Too many coaches, including many Nescac, are blinded by size. Look at Messiah roster over the years and they typically have many starters 5' 8" or shorter.  The argument is sometimes the style of play in a particular league requires large players. Maybe they should change style of play to utilize skill and smart team players and not be so concerned about scoring only on set plays and recruit highly skilled and savvy soccer players first and foremost. My 2 cents

It was interesting to read your thoughts on this.  When he was a freshman, my son played against the Milton 2015 team.  He was quite impressed with the team in general and with your son in particular, whom he thought was the best player on the field.  As you know, a number of the kids on that team went on to D1 programs, including one player who went to Maryland, and my son was very surprised that Shay wasn't going to a top-level D1 school.  That led to a discussion of the importance of size in recruiting, which was personally relevant to my son given that, while he's bigger than Shay, he's still a bit shorter than average.

What team did your son play for Buck?  Was it an isl team?  Milton had a great team that season.  It was a lot of fun. Has he decided to play in college? Maybe I'll message you as I'm getting a little off  topic..

[PaulNewman]

In the spirit of offering anecdotes...

I was curious about how a kid is doing who became a bit of a legend in Eastern Mass....broke all of his father's scoring records in high school, scored 97 goals, led his team as a junior to an undefeated season and state title, and received most of the awards one could win, including All American status.  He has yet to play a single minute for UNH as a frosh and I couldn't find any indication that he is injured.  I was surprised to see that UNH is nationally ranked and has a slew of foreign players.