Pool C 2018

[Pat Coleman]

Linfield acts like a blocker here thanks to its secondary criteria -- but St. Thomas wouldn't be selected with their current resume, either, so it's no big deal.

[Bombers798891]

I'm going to crank out a projection here based on the first RRs.  If you're new to the process, I went through the mechanics in last week's post.  So let's dive in. 

I don't believe Cortland will be the first team up from the East.  Given what's left, I think the first team up there is likely to be either Salisbury, Frostburg, or Ithaca depending on how those teams' final couple of games go down.  So there's a lot left to be decided and this is all still very fluid.

Wally, do you think there's any chance Cortland stays RR if they go 7-3? (I'm thinking like a narrow, 1-point loss to port, and a decent showing in a loss to IC). I'm trying to envision a scenario in which a first-team up IC has a resume worthy of even a serious look, and I'd have to think they'd need to have a RR win for that to happen.

[wally_wabash]

I'm going to crank out a projection here based on the first RRs.  If you're new to the process, I went through the mechanics in last week's post.  So let's dive in. 

I don't believe Cortland will be the first team up from the East.  Given what's left, I think the first team up there is likely to be either Salisbury, Frostburg, or Ithaca depending on how those teams' final couple of games go down.  So there's a lot left to be decided and this is all still very fluid.

Wally, do you think there's any chance Cortland stays RR if they go 7-3? (I'm thinking like a narrow, 1-point loss to port, and a decent showing in a loss to IC). I'm trying to envision a scenario in which a first-team up IC has a resume worthy of even a serious look, and I'd have to think they'd need to have a RR win for that to happen.

The last time we had a three-loss team in the RRs was Salisbury in final rankings, E10.  That team had a 0.546 SOS, 0-2 vs. RROs...that would be similar to where Cortland might wind up.  So it's possible?  I think it would help if Merchant Marine picks up another loss.  Or Misericordia.  Or Montclair.  It gets really congested there at the end of the East rankings and what's just off of the end of those rankings. 

I think Ithaca's best chance at an invitation involves the following two things:
- The at-large deck in the East gets cleared.  That means Brockport or Frostburg don't fall into Pool C.  Probably means Cortland finishes 0-2 and Salisbury finishes 0-2.  That should get Ithaca to the front of the East line.
- One of the top at-large teams in another region has to stumble.  Given the gaps that exist in the MIAC, I don't see any way for the Bethel/St. Thomas winner to finish with a second loss, so I won't entertain that.  But Centre could stumble.  Baldwin Wallace could lose to ONU but beat John Carroll.  Either of those things gets Ithaca one step closer.   

That combo, I think, gives Ithaca a fighting chance. 

[desertcat1]

Another fine job Wally

[Titan Q]

OK, so no more hypotheticals in the CCIW picture.  North Central defeated IWU today, so IWU is a Pool C candidate.

Sounds like maybe a longshot, but based on IWU's regional ranking positioning last week, their SOS (one of the highest on the board?), and potentially a win or two vs RRO (shouldn't Wheaton get in? Wash U maybe?) there is some degree of possibility here.

Curious to hear opinions if a 2-loss team has a chance or not.

http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/first-regional-ranking

[smedindy]

OK, so no more hypotheticals in the CCIW picture.  North Central defeated IWU today, so IWU is a Pool C candidate.

Sounds like maybe a longshot, but based on IWU's regional ranking positioning last week, their SOS (one of the highest on the board?), and potentially a win or two vs RRO (shouldn't Wheaton get in? Wash U maybe?) there is some degree of possibility here.

Curious to hear opinions if a 2-loss team has a chance or not.

http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/first-regional-ranking

I think the RRs will shake things out - but I do believe that the JCU / BW will be on the board first, and possibly Wittenberg / Wabash before we get to two loss teams. If Denison gets ranked then those are results for the NCAC folks that may put them ahead of IWU.

Two losses will be a tough one to break through, since you'll have Salisbury, Ithaca, Muhlenberg, Centre, St. Thomas, etc. on other boards at some point.

The Titans friend will be week 11 chaos.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

OK, so no more hypotheticals in the CCIW picture.  North Central defeated IWU today, so IWU is a Pool C candidate.

Sounds like maybe a longshot, but based on IWU's regional ranking positioning last week, their SOS (one of the highest on the board?), and potentially a win or two vs RRO (shouldn't Wheaton get in? Wash U maybe?) there is some degree of possibility here.

Curious to hear opinions if a 2-loss team has a chance or not.

http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/first-regional-ranking

I think the RRs will shake things out - but I do believe that the JCU / BW will be on the board first, and possibly Wittenberg / Wabash before we get to two loss teams. If Denison gets ranked then those are results for the NCAC folks that may put them ahead of IWU.

Two losses will be a tough one to break through, since you'll have Salisbury, Ithaca, Muhlenberg, Centre, St. Thomas, etc. on other boards at some point.

The Titans friend will be week 11 chaos.

Well a spot has opened up at the bottom of the North rankings with Eureka losing today. Who will slip in to boost conference foes? Plus Franklin had a tougher than preferred win against Bluffton so their ranking doesn't feel all that secure.

[edward de vere]

I mentioned Bethel specifically in my earlier because even though Bethel is 400 poll points away from St. Thomas, they ought to be much closer and possibly ahead of St. Thomas per the selection criteria.  My guess for tomorrow is that St. Thomas is ranked higher, but they should be much closer in the RRs than what the top 25 indicates.

A couple weeks ago, when ST was ranked #7 and Bethel was ranked #35,  a certain poster on the OAC board suggested that such a disparity was unwarranted based on common opponents and overall results.

Tragically, said poster was immediately smacked down by Pat "The Assassin" Coleman (aka The Minnesota Moline Meanie).

Now modesty forbids me from naming that OAC poster - but he does appear more and more perspicacious by the moment.  It's just hard to believe that 27 teams could fit in between ST and Bethel.

[Titan Q]

I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.

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I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation. 

On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.

He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board.  So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...

?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577

*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.

Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.

[MonroviaCat]

I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.

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I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation. 

On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.

He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board.  So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...

?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577

*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.

Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.

LaCrosse is also probably still a RRO so....IWU probably has 2 losses (and anywhere from 0-2 wins) against RRO--also--i'm not sure you can just slide IWU into the spot behind John Carrol---when NCC was put there it was with 1 loss, IWU now has 2 and that might have an impact on your projection.  A team like Wittenberg, with only one loss, could jump over IWU.  It really depends on what value the committee places on the individual criteria.  A lot of uncertainty but they could be in the discussion....

[Titan Q]

LaCrosse is also probably still a RRO so....IWU probably has 2 losses (and anywhere from 0-2 wins) against RRO--also--i'm not sure you can just slide IWU into the spot behind John Carrol---when NCC was put there it was with 1 loss, IWU now has 2 and that might have an impact on your projection.  A team like Wittenberg, with only one loss, could jump over IWU.  It really depends on what value the committee places on the individual criteria.  A lot of uncertainty but they could be in the discussion....

I forgot about LaCrosse.  I think another RRO, even a loss, probably helps.  Assuming Wheaton gets in, IWU is 1-2 vs RRO...how many teams in the Pool C process played 3 games vs RRO? The 1 win and 3 games played probably help. (If Wash U gets ranked, IWU is 2-2 vs RRO...and 2-2 with that great SOS would be big.)

I thought about Wittenberg, but I don't see them ahead of a 2-loss IWU due to SOS. There is a huge difference - http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/first-regional-ranking

Let me stress, I think IWU is some kind of longshot to get a Pool C...but I think the chances are actually much better than most people think based on the criteria.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.

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I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation. 

On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.

He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board.  So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...

?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577

*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.

Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.

Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)

Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.

[MonroviaCat]

I think the West Regional Rankings this week will be very interesting:

With losses I would think Oshkosh and Simpson both drop out.  With Simpson dropping out, does Linfield jump (temporarily) over Bethel or does it stay as is (doesn't really matter as next Saturday will give either St. Thomas/Bethel winner the clear edge)?  At the bottom, who replaces Oshkosh and Simpson--you've got 1-loss St. Norbert and Martin Luther with a weak SOS and you've got a whole mess with 2-loss Dubuque/Wartburg/Central or the SCIAC 2 loss teams in Redlands (best SOS of the bunch but blocked by their loss to Claremont who has a weak SOS).  Should be interesting to see where they go with this....

[Titan Q]

I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.

----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation. 

On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.

He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board.  So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...

?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577

*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.

Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.

Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)

Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.

But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that.  So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.

[MonroviaCat]

I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.

----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation. 

On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.

He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board.  So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...

?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577

*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.

Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.

Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)

Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.

But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that.  So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.

you are correct....Wheaton could jump in in a big way this week except...Wash U.....hmm.....I don't envy the committee