Pool C 2018

[Ralph Turner]

Podcast with National Committee Chairman Jim Catanzaro gives an excellent review of the process.

He mentions expanding the number of Pool C bids by requiring 8 teams in the conference to earn a Pool A bid.

That would impact: the Commonwealth Coast, the ECFC and the Liberty League.  (Strategic adjustment to the rule change might prompt the Commonwealth Coast and NEFC align for a week #11 playoff game, like the Midwest Conference and the NEFC of old.  Net gain... one Pool C bid and Pool B might not have enough teams to be granted a bid in the near future for second Pool C bid.)

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/

[wally_wabash]

Final:

UW-Stevens Point 27
UW-Oshkosh 21

That's a big one that'll have a cascading affect on Pool C. UWSP is not very good. Means WIAC has no shot at Pool C.

Central lost to Coe in the ARC as well. Dubuque and Simpson square off next week. If Simpson wins, that would be a boost to Bethel's Pool C resume.

Wittenberg's loss to Wabash puts them into Pool C convo. But Wabash still has two quality opponents (and one is just a little bit of a rival  ) left. NCAC drama is fun to watch right now.

Not sure right now if  Wittenberg is out of the Pool A or not.  Wabash has two games left that are definitely not layups.  If Wabash loses either, Witt's h2h over Denison is going to put them in the tournament.  If Wabash/Witt/Denison all finish 8-1 I have no idea who would be awarded the league's tournament bid. 

[hazzben]

Wittenberg's loss to Wabash puts them into Pool C convo. But Wabash still has two quality opponents (and one is just a little bit of a rival  ) left. NCAC drama is fun to watch right now.

Not sure right now if  Wittenberg is out of the Pool A or not.  Wabash has two games left that are definitely not layups.  If Wabash loses either, Witt's h2h over Denison is going to put them in the tournament.  If Wabash/Witt/Denison all finish 8-1 I have no idea who would be awarded the league's tournament bid.

That's what I was trying to say. Loss puts Witt in Pool C convo, though they've still got a shot at Pool A because Wabash has some good teams remaining to beat. Fun stuff

[wally_wabash]

Wittenberg's loss to Wabash puts them into Pool C convo. But Wabash still has two quality opponents (and one is just a little bit of a rival  ) left. NCAC drama is fun to watch right now.

Not sure right now if  Wittenberg is out of the Pool A or not.  Wabash has two games left that are definitely not layups.  If Wabash loses either, Witt's h2h over Denison is going to put them in the tournament.  If Wabash/Witt/Denison all finish 8-1 I have no idea who would be awarded the league's tournament bid.

That's what I was trying to say. Loss puts Witt in Pool C convo, though they've still got a shot at Pool A because Wabash has some good teams remaining to beat. Fun stuff

Stay tuned on this NCAC tiebreak stuff.  Seeing some things where some Wabash and Witt folks think a three way tiebreak favors Denison due to longest active winning streak.  I think "fewest road losses" comes in to play sooner than that though.  Road losses would be: Denison 0, Witt 0, Wabash 1.  That would seem to eliminate Wabash, then Witt's h2h prevails.  But nothing is official.  Except that right now nobody seems to think a three way tiebreak favors Wabash, which is really the larger takeaway.   

[Oline89]

Podcast with National Committee Chairman Jim Catanzaro gives an excellent review of the process.

He mentions expanding the number of Pool C bids by requiring 8 teams in the conference to earn a Pool A bid.

That would impact: the Commonwealth Coast, the ECFC and the Liberty League.  (Strategic adjustment to the rule change might prompt the Commonwealth Coast and NEFC align for a week #11 playoff game, like the Midwest Conference and the NEFC of old.  Net gain... one Pool C bid and Pool B might not have enough teams to be granted a bid in the near future for second Pool C bid.)

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/

Will also affect Empire 8 next year, thy will be down to 7, LL up to 7 with Buff St joining LL

[Ralph Turner]

Podcast with National Committee Chairman Jim Catanzaro gives an excellent review of the process.

He mentions expanding the number of Pool C bids by requiring 8 teams in the conference to earn a Pool A bid.

That would impact: the Commonwealth Coast, the ECFC and the Liberty League.  (Strategic adjustment to the rule change might prompt the Commonwealth Coast and NEFC align for a week #11 playoff game, like the Midwest Conference and the NEFC of old.  Net gain... one Pool C bid and Pool B might not have enough teams to be granted a bid in the near future for second Pool C bid.)

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2018/10/25/around-the-nation-podcast-216-committee-chair-explains-it-all/

Will also affect Empire 8 next year, thy will be down to 7, LL up to 7 with Buff St joining LL

To clarify that point, I understand that that legislation would need to go through all of the necessary committees and then voted at the Annual meeting.

Or, have the Upstate D3 Championship game between the E8 and LL winners for the Pool A bid!

[E.115]

The next couple of weeks are going to make poll C very interesting.  If Muhlenberg defeats Hopkins, Wittenberg defeats Wabash, and Brockport defeats Cortland giving each losing team 2 loses likely eliminating the losers, but if the results are reversed Poll C gets crazy.  ...If the first scenario is reversed you now add Muhlenberg, Wittenberg, and Brockport to the mix.  From the group of Brockport, Wittenberg, Muhlenberg, Hardin Simmons, BW/John Carroll, Bethel/St. Thomas, Oshkosh, Salisbury, CWRU, Linfield, and Centre, who gets in?  That would be tough decision for any committee.

Well, Pool C just got crazy.  As we know, 2 of the 3 reverse scenarios happened today, with Brockport vs Cortland next week.

[ADL70]

Seems to me Muhlenberg's loss to JHU raises the question for pool C who's gonna be 2 and 3 behind Hardin Simmons in RR, CWRU or Muhlenberg.  That is assuming every one in play wins out. Guess we'll know Wednesday.  I'm not going to speculate.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I don't think it's been mentioned here yet. Del Val and Misericordia don't play each other in the MAC this year. They could both end up 9-1 and unbeaten in conference play. I'm assuming Del Val would have the better Pool C shot but I believe they're going to end up with the Pool A on tiebreakers.

[wally_wabash]

Seems to me Muhlenberg's loss to JHU raises the question for pool C who's gonna be 2 and 3 behind Hardin Simmons in RR, CWRU or Muhlenberg.  That is assuming every one in play wins out. Guess we'll know Wednesday.  I'm not going to speculate.

CWRU - 7-1, 0.452 SOS (ouch), 0-1 vs. RRO (L to W&J)

Muhlenberg- 7-1, 0.583 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO (L to JHU), possibly 1-1 vs. RRO if Thomas More is ranked

The SOS is a huge differentiator, obviously.  I think W&J and JHU should wind up in same-ish places in the rankings, so it's not like we can say Muhlenberg lost to South #8 while CWRU lost to South #2.  There's not a lot of difference in the RRO results.  I think you'll need voices on that South RAC that bring strong and persuasive evidence outside of the primary criteria for CWRU to be ranked ahead of Muhlenberg. 

[wally_wabash]

Updated eliminator table:




A legend:
- Teams in red cells are out of at-large consideration
- Teams in green cells are still alive for at-large consideration
- Teams in grey cells are not eligible for the 2018 postseason (provisional or reclassifying or whatever)
- Conferences labeled in purple are not eligible for one of the 26 automatic bids
- Clicking the tables with blow them up for easier reading. 

Most of the new eliminations (marked with white text) since the first table went up on 10/15 are teams that have since picked up a third loss.  Berry, St. John's, and UWW are out because they've qualified via Pool A.  We'll get a bunch more of these next week.  We'll also get a bunch more once we see the regional rankings and confirm that teams out of the UMAC, NACC, etc. aren't on the radar. 

[Titan Q]

#15-IWU (7-1, 7-0) and #12-North Central (7-1, 6-1) play in Bloomington next weekend -- the winner almost certainly gets the CCIW's AQ, and the loser goes to the Pool C bubble with 2 losses. 

As a Pool C candidate, NCC would most likely have 1 win vs RRO (Wash U). 

IWU, as a Pool C, would probably have 2 wins vs RRO (Wheaton, Wash U)...if Wash U wins out (at Millikin, vs Carroll).

Would 2-loss IWU be competitive at the end of the Pool C process due to the 2 wins vs RRO?  From what I am seeing here, no other Pool C candidate will have 2 wins vs RRO?  That would seem to be a big advantage at the end of the selection process.  Or is 2 losses simply the end of the road/season over?

(Seems like, as a Pool C candidate, 2-loss IWU would be stacked up in the North right behind the John Carroll/Baldwin winner...so the Titans would hit the board as long as JC/BW was selected in spots 1-4.)

[wally_wabash]

#15-IWU (7-1, 7-0) and #12-North Central (7-1, 6-1) play in Bloomington next weekend -- the winner almost certainly gets the CCIW's AQ, and the loser goes to the Pool C bubble with 2 losses. 

As a Pool C candidate, NCC would most likely have 1 win vs RRO (Wash U). 

IWU, as a Pool C, would probably have 2 wins vs RRO (Wheaton, Wash U)...if Wash U wins out (at Millikin, vs Carroll).

Would 2-loss IWU be competitive at the end of the Pool C process due to the 2 wins vs RRO?  From what I am seeing here, no other Pool C candidate will have 2 wins vs RRO?  That would seem to be a big advantage at the end of the selection process.  Or is 2 losses simply the end of the road/season over?

(Seems like, as a Pool C candidate, 2-loss IWU would be stacked up in the North right behind the John Carroll/Baldwin winner...so the Titans would hit the board as long as JC/BW was selected in spots 1-4.)

It really all just depends on what the rankings look like and where IWU would land in the region.  2-loss IWU (or North Central) would seem to battling for rankings position with not just the JCU/B-W winner, but also the loser of that game, a potential 1-loss NCAC team, and MSJ (single loss to ranked Franklin, one loss to FCS Morehead St.).  It's a crowded house right now behind that 9-1 OAC runner up.   2-1 vs. RRO would certainly be nice if IWU finds themselves in Pool C limbo, but definitely no guarantee that it would be enough to get them in.  It is worth pointing out that two weeks ago the consensus seemed to be that multiple loss teams were doomed.  Since then, Wesley has not won a game and Oshkosh has been taken off the board.  How many more "locks" can play themselves off of the mountain in the next two Saturdays? 

[Oline89]

Updated eliminator table:




A legend:
- Teams in red cells are out of at-large consideration
- Teams in green cells are still alive for at-large consideration
- Teams in grey cells are not eligible for the 2018 postseason (provisional or reclassifying or whatever)
- Conferences labeled in purple are not eligible for one of the 26 automatic bids
- Clicking the tables with blow them up for easier reading. 

Most of the new eliminations (marked with white text) since the first table went up on 10/15 are teams that have since picked up a third loss.  Berry, St. John's, and UWW are out because they've qualified via Pool A.  We'll get a bunch more of these next week.  We'll also get a bunch more once we see the regional rankings and confirm that teams out of the UMAC, NACC, etc. aren't on the radar.

In the LL, I think there is still a slim possibility for Hobart to win.  If RPI loses next 2, and Hobart wins out, then Hob will be 4-1 and Union, RPI, Ith are all 3-2.  So for at least one more week, Hobart should stay out of the red, I think 

[USee]

Wheaton will have a 2-1 record against RROs and a superior SOS to most 2 loss teams. That only helps them if IWU wins the AQ.  Wheaton will be a very competitive 2 loss candidate if it gets to that and IWU wins the AQ. This also requires NCC to stay ranked which wouldn't be a sure thing.