Pool C 2018

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.

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I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation. 

On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.

He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board.  So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...

?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577

*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.

Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.

Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)

Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.

But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that.  So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.

Even without the RRO, they had Franklin (with 1 less loss but a SoS almost .200 lower) ahead of Wheaton. Comparing IWU to Wabash
IWU (7-2, 1-2 [with Wheaton joining the ranks], .588)
Wabash (8-1, 1-0, .481)

We've already seen that the extra loss hurts more than the .100 or so SoS lead. So will adding 2 RRO losses to their side be enough to overcome it?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.

----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation. 

On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.

He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board.  So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...

?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577

*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.

Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.

Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)

Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.

But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that.  So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.

Even without the RRO, they had Franklin (with 1 less loss but a SoS almost .200 lower) ahead of Wheaton. Comparing IWU to Wabash
IWU (7-2, 1-2 [with Wheaton joining the ranks], .588)
Wabash (8-1, 1-0, .481)

We've already seen that the extra loss hurts more than the .100 or so SoS lead. So will adding 2 RRO losses to their side be enough to overcome it?

Actually, now that I look at all of the North rankings... a loss vs SoS is a bit random it seems. John Carroll being ahead of Trine with only a .056 difference in SoS for example.

I guess I'll end by saying IWU being 2nd from the region on the board is far from a done deal. Could happen, but could easily not happen. Not sure the committee knows either

[MonroviaCat]

I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.

----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation. 

On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.

He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board.  So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...

?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577

*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.

Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.

Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)

Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.

But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that.  So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.

Even without the RRO, they had Franklin (with 1 less loss but a SoS almost .200 lower) ahead of Wheaton. Comparing IWU to Wabash
IWU (7-2, 1-2 [with Wheaton joining the ranks], .588)
Wabash (8-1, 1-0, .481)

We've already seen that the extra loss hurts more than the .100 or so SoS lead. So will adding 2 RRO losses to their side be enough to overcome it?

Actually, now that I look at all of the North rankings... a loss vs SoS is a bit random it seems. John Carroll being ahead of Trine with only a .056 difference in SoS for example.

I guess I'll end by saying IWU being 2nd from the region on the board is far from a done deal. Could happen, but could easily not happen. Not sure the committee knows either

but you also need to consider who JCU lost to and by what margin, no? (maybe not official criteria but...)

[Ralph Turner]

...and poor Hardin-Simmons...  They may never see the table until the 5th pick is gone.

They do everything that they have needed to do...

go 9-1 (they will beat crosstown rival McMurry by at least 1.5 Monkeystomps)
beat a respectable Trinity Tx on the road in their first game of the season (in week #2 after Trinity had played a game).
get burned by the OOWP of UMHB's non-conference game ( Albright 0-9, UMHB's SOS is #191)

...except score a point against UMHB.

A question for the general readership...

In which round will UMHB's margin of victory be less than 26 points?

[MonroviaCat]

Well that depends somewhat on who they face in those rounds 

[jamtod]

...and poor Hardin-Simmons...  They may never see the table until the 5th pick is gone.

They do everything that they have needed to do...

go 9-1 (they will beat crosstown rival McMurry by at least 1.5 Monkeystomps)
beat a respectable Trinity Tx on the road in their first game of the season (in week #2 after Trinity had played a game).
get burned by the OOWP of UMHB's non-conference game ( Albright 0-9, UMHB's SOS is #191)

...except score a point against UMHB.

A question for the general readership...

In which round will UMHB's margin of victory be less than 26 points?

3rd round, unless they play Hardin-Simmons in round 1 or 2.

[HSUCowboy2015]

...and poor Hardin-Simmons...  They may never see the table until the 5th pick is gone.

They do everything that they have needed to do...

go 9-1 (they will beat crosstown rival McMurry by at least 1.5 Monkeystomps)
beat a respectable Trinity Tx on the road in their first game of the season (in week #2 after Trinity had played a game).
get burned by the OOWP of UMHB's non-conference game ( Albright 0-9, UMHB's SOS is #191)

...except score a point against UMHB.

A question for the general readership...

In which round will UMHB's margin of victory be less than 26 points?

Say what? What five teams do you have in before HSU? I'm curious to hear this one.

[USee]

I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.

----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation. 

On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.

He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board.  So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...

?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577

*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.

Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.

Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)

Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.

But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that.  So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.

Even without the RRO, they had Franklin (with 1 less loss but a SoS almost .200 lower) ahead of Wheaton. Comparing IWU to Wabash
IWU (7-2, 1-2 [with Wheaton joining the ranks], .588)
Wabash (8-1, 1-0, .481)

We've already seen that the extra loss hurts more than the .100 or so SoS lead. So will adding 2 RRO losses to their side be enough to overcome it?

Actually, now that I look at all of the North rankings... a loss vs SoS is a bit random it seems. John Carroll being ahead of Trine with only a .056 difference in SoS for example.

I guess I'll end by saying IWU being 2nd from the region on the board is far from a done deal. Could happen, but could easily not happen. Not sure the committee knows either

but you also need to consider who JCU lost to and by what margin, no? (maybe not official criteria but...)

No you don't.  The committee already weighed in on that last week with IWU #2 and JCU #3. It's. It a criteria and if it were the committee didn't see it as significant a week ago.

[Ralph Turner]

Well that depends somewhat on who they face in those rounds 

Linfield or Whitworth would be a good opponent.

Year	Team	Round	Score
.	.	.	.
2017	Linfield	2	24-10
2016	Linfield	2	27-10
2015	HSU	1	37-19
2014	TLU	1	27-20
2013	SJF	4	45-23
2012	Wesley	3	32-20
2011	Redlands	1	34-13
2010	Wesley	3	9-19

[Ralph Turner]

Going by Wally Wabash's work this week, if there is a big shake-up in the North Region...

I think that I am glad that NCC prevailed and the remainder of the CCIW schools, Wheaton and IWU, get moved down the order...

I'm going to crank out a projection here based on the first RRs.  If you're new to the process, I went through the mechanics in last week's post.  So let's dive in. 

Pool A
The projected 26 Pool A's as of this moment:


St. John's, Berry, and Whitewater have all clinched (golden ticket status noted appropriately).  Many, many more coming this weekend.  Other changes/notes on Pool A:
- The unofficial word has Denison winning a potential NCAC tiebreak and that's been noted here. 
- I'm still hedging toward Wartburg in the ARC, but it could go any of about four different ways.   

Pool B
Pool B is a touch more interesting now with MIT not being undefeated.  Based on the rankings, we're going to have Merchant Marine on the board from the East and Thomas More from the South. 

Round 1:
E8 Merchant Marine: 6-1, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.603 (10th) SOS
S10 Thomas More: 6-2, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.555 (49th)

Last week TMC had an SOS advantage over MIT, but now that SOS advantage swings dramatically over to the Mariners.  Classic case here where the NCAA's SOS metric isn't great because I'm having a hard time buying a NEWMAC schedule as being "stronger" than what the Saints have done so far this year.  But the numbers are the numbers and I think the vote swings toward Merchant Marine and their top 10 schedule strength.  Thomas More can absolutely play in though if they win at St. John's in Week 11. 

The remaining at-large tables shake out this way:
East: Cortland, Salisbury, Ithaca
North: John Carroll, North Central, Baldwin Wallace, Wabash, Wittenberg
South: Centre, Hardin-Simmons, Muhlenberg, CWRU
West: Bethel, Linfield, St. Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Simpson, UW-La Crosse

Pretty different table than we had last week, yeah?  The regional rankings can definitely shuffle the deck and have done so here.   

Pool C:
Round 1:
3N John Carroll - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (84th)
4S Centre - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598 (14th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
4W Bethel - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.564 (42nd)
(Bethel, JCU, Centre, Cortland)

I mean, this foursome could be half of the quarterfinals.  That's the line I opened this section with two weeks ago!  Life comes at you fast.  So this board isn't quite as star-powered as it was two weeks ago, but that actually makes things a little easier.  Centre has a dominant SOS, JCU has a pretty good SOS and a pretty impressive result against N1 (which is like a super-RRO, really), but Bethel stands out to me with that RRO win over Simpson.  It's the only quality win on the board right now and I'm putting the Royals in first. 

Round 2:
3N John Carroll - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (84th)
4S Centre - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598 (14th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(JCU, Centre, Linfield, Cortland)

So much for writing Linfield off.  They're here and they're here pretty early in the process.  Now, what the summary above doesn't show is a second loss to NAIA Carroll(Mont.) and that loss is in fact useable data in the secondary criteria.  I'm not ignoring it or letting Linfield off the hook for that game.  I do think that Linfield's 100-point advantage over Cortland is noteworthy and I'm placing Linfield in front of Cortland.  Which brings me to JCU and Centre.  JCU took Mount Union to the wire which is an enormous feat.  Centre had Berry into overtime, which is an impressive result, but it just isn't the same.  Centre has a healthy SOS edge here, but I think JCU has the far better result and I'm putting the Streaks in.  If Maryville somehow edges in to these rankings, I think we might do this differently. 

Round 3:
5N North Central - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.506 (84th)
4S Centre - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598 (14th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(Centre, North Central, Linfield, Cortland)

North Central is the noob and North Central doesn't actually present very well if I'm being honest.  The North RACs decision to not rank Wheaton or WashU costs North Central some valuable criteria pros.  My analysis has already drawn clear differentiation between Centre and Linfield and I don't think I can place North Central in over Centre given the current set of rankings.  Centre is in.  I am going to place North Central ahead of Linfield largely because of Linfield's second loss. 

Round 4:
5N North Central - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.506 (84th)
5S Hardin-Simmons - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.571 (37th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(HSU, North Central, Linfield, Cortland)

Hardin-Simmons we've long assumed to be a lock to make this field, but their placement behind Centre puts them much closer to the bubble than we thought they'd be.  I do think they present pretty well against this current board thought.  They are just 0-1 vs. RROs, but their RRO loss is to S1, and like Mount Union, UMHB losses don't sting quite as bad.  And while HSU wasn't anywhere close to winning that game, they did perform far better than anybody else has against UMHB.  I'm moving Hardin-Simmons to the front of the line and right into the field.  North Central not getting RRO credit here really hurts the Cardinals. 

Round 5:
5N North Central - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.506 (84th)
6S Muhlenberg - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.583 (27th)
5E Cortland - 7-1, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (160th)
5W Linfield - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577 (30th)
(Muhlenberg, North Central, Linfield, Cortland)

Here come the Mules!  Guess what?  Muhlenberg has the best SOS at the table and they are also the only team at the table right now with an RRO (vs. S10 TMC).  That's a pretty good looking at-large profile, really.  They have a respectable loss to S3- something that I also look for here when I look at results vs. ranked teams are point margins.  Not so much that one team lost by 4 and another lost by 7 so the first one is better.  But significant margins.  Muhlenberg's loss isn't at all bad to a very good team.  North Central has a wipeout on their profile to an unranked team (we know Wheaton is strong, but today, they are unranked and it is what it is).  Linfield has a second loss that I'm not ignoring.  Cortland has been here the whole time, but despite being the top at-large team in their region, Cortland doesn't present well at all as a team with a sub-.500 SOS and no games against ranked teams.  So I'm putting the Mules in. 

And that's the field as I see it today.  Some things to keep in mind- this is a snapshot as of right now and not a projection as to what I think the field will look like in 10 days.  North Central is either going to beat IWU and qualify through Pool A or not even be in this discussion.  Bethel has to get through St. Thomas to be the first team off this board.  And even then might not be the first team off if JCU beats Baldwin Wallace and notches an RRO win.  And Simpson could well drop out which would cost Bethel a valuable RRO win.  I don't believe Cortland will be the first team up from the East.  Given what's left, I think the first team up there is likely to be either Salisbury, Frostburg, or Ithaca depending on how those teams' final couple of games go down.  So there's a lot left to be decided and this is all still very fluid.

[HSUCowboy2015]

But you said that you didn't think Hardin-Simmons would be at the table until after the 5th pick? This has us in the conversation and off the board before the 5 selection even gets there.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

...and poor Hardin-Simmons...  They may never see the table until the 5th pick is gone.

They do everything that they have needed to do...

go 9-1 (they will beat crosstown rival McMurry by at least 1.5 Monkeystomps)
beat a respectable Trinity Tx on the road in their first game of the season (in week #2 after Trinity had played a game).
get burned by the OOWP of UMHB's non-conference game ( Albright 0-9, UMHB's SOS is #191)

...except score a point against UMHB.

A question for the general readership...

In which round will UMHB's margin of victory be less than 26 points?

Say what? What five teams do you have in before HSU? I'm curious to hear this one.

Well if you're going solely by wally's process as that last post seems to suggest... Hardin-Simmons is the 4th team in. So that doesn't really answer which 5 you'd have in ahead.

[MonroviaCat]

I posted this on the CCIW board...probably belongs here too.

----------
I think IWU will very much be in the Pool C conversation. 

On Thursday, Pool C prognosticator Wally Wabash did a great projection of the process, round by round - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8888.msg1896284#msg1896284.

He picked John Carroll in the 2nd round of the process. John Carroll will be ranked in the North ahead of IWU...IWU should be that next North team to hit the board.  So here is what his 3rd round board looks like, with IWU now in for NCC...

?N Illinois Wesleyan - 7-2, 1-1* RRO, 0.578
4S Centre - 8-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.598
5E Cortland - 7-2, 0-0 RRO, 0.473 (Cortland and Salisbury both lost yesterday - not sure who fits here)
5W Linfield - 6-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.577

*I'm assuming Wheaton enters the North ranking this week. If Wash U also enters, IWU has 2-1 here.

Behind a great SOS and 1-1 vs RRO, IWU would certainly get a good, long discussion in this process.

Just comparing these two teams
IWU (7-2, 0-2 [based on last week's ranks], .588)
Wheaton (7-2, 2-1 [based on last week's ranks], .606)

Wheaton didn't even make the rankings last week and the only positive in the comparison for Illinois Wesleyan is the H2H.
If Wheaton isn't ranked above Wabash/Wittenberg I don't see how IWU would be.

But in the first week of ranking, I don't think they factor in the RRO at all...correct me if I am wrong on that.  So we don't really know how the RROs factor in in stacking these teams up yet.

Even without the RRO, they had Franklin (with 1 less loss but a SoS almost .200 lower) ahead of Wheaton. Comparing IWU to Wabash
IWU (7-2, 1-2 [with Wheaton joining the ranks], .588)
Wabash (8-1, 1-0, .481)

We've already seen that the extra loss hurts more than the .100 or so SoS lead. So will adding 2 RRO losses to their side be enough to overcome it?

Actually, now that I look at all of the North rankings... a loss vs SoS is a bit random it seems. John Carroll being ahead of Trine with only a .056 difference in SoS for example.

I guess I'll end by saying IWU being 2nd from the region on the board is far from a done deal. Could happen, but could easily not happen. Not sure the committee knows either

but you also need to consider who JCU lost to and by what margin, no? (maybe not official criteria but...)

No you don't.  The committee already weighed in on that last week with IWU #2 and JCU #3. It's. It a criteria and if it were the committee didn't see it as significant a week ago.

to clarify-my comment was regarding one loss I I ranked ahead of undefeated Trine

[Ralph Turner]

...and poor Hardin-Simmons...  They may never see the table until the 5th pick is gone.

They do everything that they have needed to do...

go 9-1 (they will beat crosstown rival McMurry by at least 1.5 Monkeystomps)
beat a respectable Trinity Tx on the road in their first game of the season (in week #2 after Trinity had played a game).
get burned by the OOWP of UMHB's non-conference game ( Albright 0-9, UMHB's SOS is #191)

...except score a point against UMHB.

A question for the general readership...

In which round will UMHB's margin of victory be less than 26 points?

Say what? What five teams do you have in before HSU? I'm curious to hear this one.

Well if you're going solely by wally's process as that last post seems to suggest... Hardin-Simmons is the 4th team in. So that doesn't really answer the question.

Then perhaps only Muhlenberg gets displaced... HSU goes in 5th. (HSU's SOS takes a hit with 2-7 McMurry.)

[The Mole]

Unless Frostburg loses to Salisbury:
HSU
Baldwin-Wallace/John Carroll winner
Saint Thomas/Bethel winner
Centre
Muhlenberg
CWRU odd man out