Pool C 2018

[Pat Coleman]

My assumption is they aren't doing their own ranking so much as predicting what the actual RAC will do. So this isnt them saying IWU belongs here. They really have to attempt this or their entire projected bracket will be inaccurate.

::ding::

[smedindy]

Even with IWU jumping in instead of Wabash, I can't see them getting ahead of Centre or Muhlenberg.

[MonroviaCat]

@TitanQ

I don't disagree with those points re IWU. My gut is that IWU is probably better than Wabash/Witt (just a general impression that CCIW co-champ is probably a little better based on history). And I'd agree, if the North RAC did this, you'd have a good case for IWU getting in. And it would make for a completely different bracket.

I'd make the same argument for the West Region. Why not UST over Linfield? Linfield has 2 losses and a forfeit win. Yes, one of those is an NAIA team, but a very average NAIA team at that. I think UST would have some juice on the board as well.

I think we're going to have some solid 2 loss teams left home that may be better than several 1 loss at large teams. But it might have more to do with how the RAC's set the table than the National Committee's preference.

That said, UST, IWU, Ithaca, et al had their chances. With UST especially, their playoffs started yesterday.

This is not correct----Linfield's opponent (NAIA Carroll) has a forfeit win.  The Cat's wins were all legit.  And while I think St. Thomas would beat the Cats, when you compare them based on the criteria, both have 2 losses, neither has a win over a RRO, and Linfield has a higher SOS so that's probably why they stay ranked ahead of the Tommies.

Good catch. Brain fart there assigning the forfeit to Linfield.

I don't disagree that there's definitely a reason to keep Linfield above UST given SOS. But I think the argument at least comes up. UST has faced two RRO and lost twice. Both teams that make the field. Linfield has faced one RRO, and lost, to a team in the field. But there's this other data point, they lost to that .500 NAIA team.

Pat says it all the time, it's not who you lost to, it's who you beat. But I think in this instance, they probably at least take a peak at who those second losses are to, now that all the games are played.

End of the day, I think UST is in the same boat as IWU and the respective RAC's continue what they've done to this point. Though I think IWU is being done the greater diservice of the two.

Fair point...but I can't imagine they move St. Thomas over Linfield when they weren't ahead of them with only one loss...either way---if any of these teams get a spot I'll be shocked.

[hazzben]

Agreed. But I think the field would be better with any of the 3 included.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Hardin-Simmons @ UMHB
Maryville @ Berry
Martin Luther @ St John's
CMS @ Whitworth

Eureka @ Whitewater
St Norbert @ Trine
Hanover @ North Central
Wartburg @ Bethel

Denison @ Mount Union
Wash & Jeff @ Centre
Randolph-Macon @ John Carroll
Muhlenberg @ Delaware Valley

Framingham @ Brockport
Husson @ RPI
W New England @ Frostburg
MIT @ Johns Hopkins

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

so I believe the Pool C list is Hardin-Simmons, Bethel, John Carroll, Centre, and Muhlenberg.
3 of them will host in the 1st round

[wally_wabash]

Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection

I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.

Thanks Wally.

With this data...

1 Mount Union 10-0, .534, 1-0
2 North Central (Ill.) 9-1, .542, 1-1
3 John Carroll 9-1, .538, 0-1
4 Trine 10-0, .506, 0-0
5 Wabash 9-1, .481, 1-0
6 Wittenberg 9-1, .504, 0-1
7 Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .555, 2-2
8 Wheaton (Ill.) 8-2, .558, 2-2
9 Washington U. 8-2, .552, 1-2
10 Denison 8-2, .497, 1-1

...I'm curious how you guys landed on the order of Wabash, Witt, IWU.

It seems to me like IWU has the best resume of those 3.

This is how we ranked the teams based on the tendencies of this regional committee.  Even though this set is a best case scenario for my alma mater, I think any good application of the primary criteria would have ranked IWU and Wheaton (at least) ahead of the NCAC teams.  This is the second year in a row now that the North RAC looks like they've kind of mailed in the entire exercise and it's kind of a bummer.  Put plainly, I think they're getting this wrong. 

[USee]

Yea, notice to all North Region Coaches, schedule easy teams in your non conference game. That message is loud an clear. Between this and the Texas rematch we have a significant regression in the quality of the playoffs.

[Titan Q]

I'm interested to see the final North ranking to see if they indeed had Wabash highest.

[nccfac]

Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection

I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.

Thanks Wally.

With this data...

1 Mount Union 10-0, .534, 1-0
2 North Central (Ill.) 9-1, .542, 1-1
3 John Carroll 9-1, .538, 0-1
4 Trine 10-0, .506, 0-0
5 Wabash 9-1, .481, 1-0
6 Wittenberg 9-1, .504, 0-1
7 Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .555, 2-2
8 Wheaton (Ill.) 8-2, .558, 2-2
9 Washington U. 8-2, .552, 1-2
10 Denison 8-2, .497, 1-1

...I'm curious how you guys landed on the order of Wabash, Witt, IWU.

It seems to me like IWU has the best resume of those 3.

How is NCC not ranked 2 - 1 in RRO given wins over IWU and Wash U?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection

I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.

Thanks Wally.

With this data...

1 Mount Union 10-0, .534, 1-0
2 North Central (Ill.) 9-1, .542, 1-1
3 John Carroll 9-1, .538, 0-1
4 Trine 10-0, .506, 0-0
5 Wabash 9-1, .481, 1-0
6 Wittenberg 9-1, .504, 0-1
7 Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .555, 2-2
8 Wheaton (Ill.) 8-2, .558, 2-2
9 Washington U. 8-2, .552, 1-2
10 Denison 8-2, .497, 1-1

...I'm curious how you guys landed on the order of Wabash, Witt, IWU.

It seems to me like IWU has the best resume of those 3.

This is how we ranked the teams based on the tendencies of this regional committee.  Even though this set is a best case scenario for my alma mater, I think any good application of the primary criteria would have ranked IWU and Wheaton (at least) ahead of the NCAC teams.  This is the second year in a row now that the North RAC looks like they've kind of mailed in the entire exercise and it's kind of a bummer.  Put plainly, I think they're getting this wrong.

Interesting question for you Wallly... had Franklin won and thus (I assume) stayed in the rankings, that would have prevented Denison from entering at 10. Would the extra result the CCIW got from WashU entering the rankings be enough to pass the NCAC without the Denison results also being added?

[wally_wabash]

Interesting question for you Wallly... had Franklin won and thus (I assume) stayed in the rankings, that would have prevented Denison from entering at 10. Would the extra result the CCIW got from WashU entering the rankings be enough to pass the NCAC without the Denison results also being added?

One of my crazy scenarios for Week 11 involved most of this.  The missing piece was Wabash losing to DePauw, giving the NCAC AQ to Wittenberg, getting WashU ranked, and Wheaton in the on-deck circle in the North.  Wheaton maybe could have been in there. 

If Franklin had won and only WashU got ranked, I still don't think this North RAC was going to shuffle 2 loss teams in front of 1-loss teams on RRO alone.  The RRO situation was pretty overwhelming with or without WashU.  In the North RAC, 9-1 beats 8-2, unless 9-1 has an almost impossibly low SOS. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Interesting question for you Wallly... had Franklin won and thus (I assume) stayed in the rankings, that would have prevented Denison from entering at 10. Would the extra result the CCIW got from WashU entering the rankings be enough to pass the NCAC without the Denison results also being added?

One of my crazy scenarios for Week 11 involved most of this.  The missing piece was Wabash losing to DePauw, giving the NCAC AQ to Wittenberg, getting WashU ranked, and Wheaton in the on-deck circle in the North.  Wheaton maybe could have been in there. 

If Franklin had won and only WashU got ranked, I still don't think this North RAC was going to shuffle 2 loss teams in front of 1-loss teams on RRO alone.  The RRO situation was pretty overwhelming with or without WashU.  In the North RAC, 9-1 beats 8-2, unless 9-1 has an almost impossibly low SOS.

I am NOT normally a 'conspiracy theorist', but I swear the North RAC has a thing about screwing the North!  Either that, or they are totally lazy SOBs who just mail it in.  Folks, winning % is not the ONLY primary criterion!   If you apply ALL the primary criteria (with whatever weightings, other than 100%, 0%, 0%, ...), there is no way that IWU or Wheaton is below Wabash or Witt in the regional rankings.

I guess the final rankings don't come out until tomorrow, but on another thread Pat strongly implied that the North RAC did NOT change that ridiculous scenario.

[art76]

Thanx for another fine year of hosting this thread, Wally!

[hazzben]

Thanx for another fine year of hosting this thread, Wally!

Seconded. I can't imagine the amount of thought and effort that goes into this. We've got to be the best informed fans in college football. Seriously, I'll take what we get from the front page and these boards over anything ESPN serves up for the FBS/FCS any day.