The Big Dance

[Mr.Right]

What, have we morphed into the quiet period?

I mean, do we really think Chicago is going to get by Trinity?  Isn't Trinity due for a big win instead of a disappointing exit?  How does this Trinity edition compare with those from the preceding 5-6 years?

Hopefully in addition to the excellent sectional reviews for the site Mr.Right will give us a breakdown and prediction on Amherst-Tufts with maybe a bonus review of the NJAC re-match.

After I posted above about Rochester I realized that UR as a team/school mirrors Rochester the city/area in terms of being off the radar.  BTW, I'm not sure I've ever seen a UR fan post on this board.  Rochester the area is off the radar as in sort of off the map.  About midway between Syracuse and Buffalo, Rochester is closer to Cleveland than it is to Boston or NYC.  Rochester generally is not a place most folks think of going unless vacationing on the Finger Lakes or on the way to Niagara Falls.  What most think of is that the area is usually cloudy and gets really, really cold, and most don't think of UR as a school to consider.  That said, UR is a superb school, with an also under the radar but very well-respected medical school.  The library is as impressive as almost any building on any campus in America and the Eastman School of Music is first-rate.   The city is a mix of deteriorated spots and revitalized neighborhoods with a lot of culture for a city its size, lots of beautiful parks, and surprisingly manageable traffic.  It is the home of wonderful Wegmans, the deluxe grocery chain now thankfully multiplying with stores in Massachusetts.  And it played a central role in the nation's civil rights history with Susan B. Anthony and Frederick Douglass, statues of both sharing a square down the street from the Susan B. Anthony House.  Nearby is the Freedom Trail with Seneca Falls.

Come on Rochester fans!  Come out of the shadows and make yourselves known.

Unfortunately I will be heading out of town on Saturday morning so I will only be catching the Calvin/PSU Behrend and Case/Kenyon/ Friday Sweet 16 match-ups. So I will be relying on some of you to provide updates here and there because I will be in the air for most of these games.


I really cannot give an accurate breakdown of MSU v Ramapo because I have only seen them both play this past weekend. Based on what I saw MSU has more individual talent especially in midfield but Ramapo might have the better striker and GK'er which usually matters more in November. I will say neither team is the most disciplined but I thought Ramapo did a nice job defensively against Conn on Sunday. I did not watch MSU advance over NYU so I can only comment on what I saw against Colby. Based on how they defended as a team against Colby they might be able to get past Ramapo but if they defend like that against Tufts or Amherst they will get concede maybe 3 Goals. They are very dangerous going forward and but are to undisciplined defensively as they looked to be rather unorganized back there. I liked one of their CB's but if they are giving THAT MUCH space as they gave to Colby I think they get burned especially against Amherst. They are leaving their GK high and dry on the counter because they do not require or ask their attacking players to defend. Now against Colby it turned it into a very entertaining game because Colby has never seen that much open field in Nescac play and almost got over excited and came to far out of its shell which in turn allowed MSU's more talented attacking players to get some dangerous chances against Colby. It was one of the more enjoyable games from last weekend. Basically, if MSU does not track back against Amherst or Tufts they will have some issues IMO so they better outscore them which I do not see happening either. However, if Ramapo's GK played like he did against Conn and remember he and his defense has not allowed a Goal in the NCAA's as of yet then Ramapo might just advance against MSU BUT their confidence might be a bit fragile against an MSU side who picked them apart only 2 weeks ago. I will say it should be a much more entertaining game than the Tufts v Amherst game.



Tufts v Amherst---------I have written about these teams all year so there really is not much else to say at this point. There are no surprises in this game as both teams know each other very well. Amherst plays in a 4-3-3 which is technically a 4-5-1 because they pinch their wingers very tight in midfield. Tufts almost looks like they are playing in a 4-1-4-1 because with Rojas and Van Brewer are both on the field they are not helping hold with Aroh. I would expect to see maybe more of Delaney in this game but Shapiro has been giving a ton of minutes to the Frosh Seigelstein who I thought was one year away because of his slight frame but he has proven to be very skilled and looked pretty dangerous with the ball at his feet. Anyway, both teams love to control midfield over their opponents and whoever can do it in this match will win the game as long as they finish their chance(s). I expect both teams to be pretty tight defensively in this game so do not expect many chances for either team as 1 goal might do it. I give the backline advantage to Tufts as Weatherbie, Najjar, Paoletta and Daly are more steady and consistent to me than Amherst backline right now. I do like Amherst wingbacks long thrower Johnson and O'Brien as they should be able to handle Tasker and Lane. O'Brien is as fast as Tasker and should not get beaten more than once or twice in this game by Tasker. Lane is quicker than Johnson but not by as much as you think as for a big guy Johnson is pacey but also is a smart defender that usually does not make many mistakes back there. If Fitzgerald and Wu are starting at CB that makes me nervy as Wu is an inconsistent player and Fitzgerald is big and physical but mighty slow that is why I know Shapiro will give Braun the bulk of the minutes but I still say Jacobs could do some damage up top against those two CB's. Still Braun should get a real solid look or two in this game but frankly his finishing has not been good recently. In net I would take the Senior Meith over Amherst Frosh White. White has been good up until last Sunday against St.Joe's where they proved if you shoot low against White you can get goals as he was a step slow getting down. If the game goes to PK's I would rather Mieth as White is an unknown unless Amherst has another one of their 3 GK's they use in PK's. Because Amherst pinches their wingers Tufts will have plenty of space out wide in which they keep Tasker and Lane outwide consistently. The pinched wingers also gives opponents plenty of space in between the lone striker and the pinched midfield. it is a gaping area of space that Amherst is happy to give teams but smart teams can take advantage of that space if you overlap your wingbacks because if say Tasker and Lane get into those holes from the lone striker to the pinched midfield they than can play wide to an overlapping wingback to create 2v1's on the flank areas and should be able to whip balls into the box with about 4-5 guys crashing. That being said I am guessing Tufts will rarely take the risk of having their wingbacks overlap in this match because they will be afraid to give up a quick counter to Amherst who is strong on the counter. However, if Tufts does not overlap than the space Amherst is giving you will not be taken advantage of and then it will end up being 5 v 9 going at Amherst defense and those are numbers that will not allow Tufts many chances. So the question ends up being does Shapiro take a chance(doubtful) or do they just hope an pray for a set piece goal or a Tasker cross to Braun's head. By now you know which way I think Tufts should go but I doubt they will. Still you have to take what your opponent gives you. If Amherst plays like they did Sunday against St.Joe's and Fikayo Ajayi plays the game of his life again plus German Giammattei plays like a stud again then I honestly think Amherst advances. Along with Lind and Cutler Coleman who I know will play very well in this game as long as Amherst CB's don't muck this game up and the GK White does not make any mistakes I will take Amherst in this game.

[PaulNewman]

An interesting scenario is an even game that gets late, and whether the Falcons as heavy favorites will start to panic a little deep into a game or in OT.  And in pressing for that winning goal do they take the risk of giving up a goal on the counter. 

I just cannot imagine this team panicking.  I was so impressed with their composure when they came back from 2-0 down to JHU, a solid team in its own right.  When behind, even with the clock ticking down, they simply went about their methodical yet relentless attack until the Hopkins lead was wiped out.

I didn't say that such panic couldn't or wouldn't happen, just that I couldn't imagine it.  My imagination must not be very good 

Disagree.  I think any team can start to feel really uneasy in a NCAA one-off situation, especially a heavy favorite.  Certainly Messiah more than most teams will have confidence that they can score/equalize and/or snag a late game winner, but when you get to the last 5-10 minutes or overtime when the next goal is most likely going to decide things, and when you are just as worried about the other team getting a late game winner while you're wanting a game winner I don't think there is any immunity to feeling pressure mount.

Well, Ommadawn, with that 24/1 karma ratio you must be doing something right! 

[Mr.Right]

I am sorry Messiah has the absolute easiest road of anyone to the NCAA Final 4.....UR could give them a game but that is if they get by Eastern. UR is the type of team that could give Messiah a game but also lose to Eastern. Eastern is a nice story and all but they have exceeded all expectations and if you look at their schedule there are not to many great Wins except Willy P....I mean based on EB2319 theory on how to evaluate a team if you have not seen them play then Wesleyan(CT) is a better team than Eastern because Wheeler's bunch beat Eastern 1-0 in OT AND outshot them 14-9. Now Eastern is 17-2-2 and Wesleyan finished 4-11-0 but hey what do I know. I have never seen Eastern play so I have no idea what they do well and frankly what their weaknesses are but I would expect Messiah to beat them rather handily. So it is only Cortland St and UR that stand in Messiah's way and I am just not seeing it unless those games get moved to the turf which both teams are familiar with. The Amherst/Tufts/MSU pod is a battle as is Trinity/Chicago/Luther and Calvin/Kenyon/Case.

[PaulNewman]

I agree that Rochester would have a puncher's chance against Messiah but could also lose to Eastern.  While Messiah Nation would be happy with all the family love the Falcons will smoke Eastern.  As a neutral I'm hoping for a Messiah-Rochester game, but who knows, maybe Cortland will actually turn up in a Sweet 16 tilt.

[PaulNewman]

What kind of fan support will Amherst have at Tufts?  I have no sense of how many Amherst alums (who would even care) live around the Boston area.  It is a classic matchup pitting the two recent NESCAC heavyweights against each, and with both very determined and expecting to win.  Tufts usually always shows up and is remarkably consistent but I wonder if they will be a little flat or overconfident this time.

[rudy]

I am sorry Messiah has the absolute easiest road of anyone to the NCAA Final 4.....UR could give them a game but that is if they get by Eastern. UR is the type of team that could give Messiah a game but also lose to Eastern. Eastern is a nice story and all but they have exceeded all expectations and if you look at their schedule there are not to many great Wins except Willy P....I mean based on EB2319 theory on how to evaluate a team if you have not seen them play then Wesleyan(CT) is a better team than Eastern because Wheeler's bunch beat Eastern 1-0 in OT AND outshot them 14-9. Now Eastern is 17-2-2 and Wesleyan finished 4-11-0 but hey what do I know. I have never seen Eastern play so I have no idea what they do well and frankly what their weaknesses are but I would expect Messiah to beat them rather handily. So it is only Cortland St and UR that stand in Messiah's way and I am just not seeing it unless those games get moved to the turf which both teams are familiar with. The Amherst/Tufts/MSU pod is a battle as is Trinity/Chicago/Luther and Calvin/Kenyon/Case.

I think you need to get out of New England more. Hopkins and Cortland could both beat Amherst or Tufts.  Not saying they would beat them easily but both e capable. Messiah beat MSU 5-1 earlier this year so including them as a tough out with Tufts and Amherst makes no sense.  I watched Eastern and they were better than I expected. Knocking off F&M is not easy.   By no means does Messiah have a cakewalk to final 4.  They had toughest second round game imo.  Calvin won't have a tough game until elite 8.   

[Flying Weasel]

Given we got about 1/2 foot of snow topped with a layer of sleet and now it's turning to rain that's supposed to last through much of the night, I'd say the Messiah Sectional is gonna be on the lacrosse team's turf field just like last year. 

Both Cortland and Rochester have a size and physicality advantage on Messiah, and in theory the smaller field helps them press that advantage as they have less ground to cover to track Messiah's pace and movement.  But, Messiah usually adapts very well to turf going back to the 2002 Final Four on St. Lawrence's field hockey turf when, with their short, controlled passing game, they looked the least effected of the four teams by the conditions and playing surface.  Last year Messiah played some of their best attacking soccer of the whole year during Sectionals on the turf. 

The other thing is, Messiah is known for their possession game, but their goals in recent years have come increasingly from quick (direct?) attacks, not patient build-up, where they get the ball down field in two or three passes before defenses can get numbers back to crowd the box. In general, the more passes Messiah strings together on a given possession, the less likely they are to score (not that all that possession is without value--it tires the opponent physically and mentally and you can't concede a goal if your opponent doesn't have the ball).  The smaller turf field and faster playing surface actually facilitates their quick-strike attack as was seen this weekend last year and it had West, Colby Thomas, et. al. brimming with confidence heading into the Final Four.

[Buck O.]

BTW, I'm not sure I've ever seen a UR fan post on this board. 

Come on Rochester fans!  Come out of the shadows and make yourselves known.

Well, I did go to grad school at the U of R, so while they're not my primary rooting interest, I would like for them to do well.  Does that count?

Sadly, that does not count, as you only like them and they are not a primary rooting interest.  You are not a true-blue homer for the Yellowjackets.  I am not a true fan either, as I confess to never once going to a UR game during my daughter's four years on River Campus.  But at least you did get a great education.

We would be more likely to get U of R fans posting on this board if there were more U of R fans, period.  And there would be more U of R fans if the U of R would stop charging to watch the webcasts of their games.  Does anyone else still do this?  A decade ago, when my cousin was playing for UMass, I paid a monthly fee to watch UMass athletic events, but that model seems to have passed on everywhere--except Rochester.

I wouldn't think that making it harder for potential recruits to watch their games does any favors for their recruiting, either. 

[Mr.Right]

I am sorry Messiah has the absolute easiest road of anyone to the NCAA Final 4.....UR could give them a game but that is if they get by Eastern. UR is the type of team that could give Messiah a game but also lose to Eastern. Eastern is a nice story and all but they have exceeded all expectations and if you look at their schedule there are not to many great Wins except Willy P....I mean based on EB2319 theory on how to evaluate a team if you have not seen them play then Wesleyan(CT) is a better team than Eastern because Wheeler's bunch beat Eastern 1-0 in OT AND outshot them 14-9. Now Eastern is 17-2-2 and Wesleyan finished 4-11-0 but hey what do I know. I have never seen Eastern play so I have no idea what they do well and frankly what their weaknesses are but I would expect Messiah to beat them rather handily. So it is only Cortland St and UR that stand in Messiah's way and I am just not seeing it unless those games get moved to the turf which both teams are familiar with. The Amherst/Tufts/MSU pod is a battle as is Trinity/Chicago/Luther and Calvin/Kenyon/Case.

I think you need to get out of New England more. Hopkins and Cortland could both beat Amherst or Tufts.  Not saying they would beat them easily but both e capable. Messiah beat MSU 5-1 earlier this year so including them as a tough out with Tufts and Amherst makes no sense.  I watched Eastern and they were better than I expected. Knocking off F&M is not easy.   By no means does Messiah have a cakewalk to final 4.  They had toughest second round game imo.  Calvin won't have a tough game until elite 8.

Really...I would be willing to bet serious money I have seen more teams across D3 this season than yourself so do not tell me to get out of New England...I never said anything about Cortland OR Hopkins or anything related to Tufts and Amherst....I was unaware Hopkins was still in your sectional coming up.....How many times has ur ass seen Cortland play this season? Probably once against Messiah....You "Falcoln fans" love to over hype your opponents in the Tournament because god forbid your road to the Final 4 is assumed to be almost unworthy...It is almost like the more you write it the more you think we will buy it...Doubtful....IT IS THE EASIEST PATH.....-k for arrogance.

[Buck O.]

Tufts v Amherst---------I have written about these teams all year so there really is not much else to say at this point.

...followed by 755 words about Tufts vs. Amherst.   

[Mr.Right]

Tufts v Amherst---------I have written about these teams all year so there really is not much else to say at this point.

...followed by 755 words about Tufts vs. Amherst.   

Ur a pain in the ass as well....-k for being an annoyance

[Buck O.]

Tufts v Amherst---------I have written about these teams all year so there really is not much else to say at this point.

...followed by 755 words about Tufts vs. Amherst.   

Ur a pain in the ass as well....-k for being an annoyance

I enjoy reading your analysis, and I honestly have no idea how you're able to keep all of these details about all of these players straight.  But that's about the reaction I thought I might get. Somehow, I'll soldier on.

[Flying Weasel]

I am sorry Messiah has the absolute easiest road of anyone to the NCAA Final 4.....UR could give them a game but that is if they get by Eastern. UR is the type of team that could give Messiah a game but also lose to Eastern. Eastern is a nice story and all but they have exceeded all expectations and if you look at their schedule there are not to many great Wins except Willy P....I mean based on EB2319 theory on how to evaluate a team if you have not seen them play then Wesleyan(CT) is a better team than Eastern because Wheeler's bunch beat Eastern 1-0 in OT AND outshot them 14-9. Now Eastern is 17-2-2 and Wesleyan finished 4-11-0 but hey what do I know. I have never seen Eastern play so I have no idea what they do well and frankly what their weaknesses are but I would expect Messiah to beat them rather handily. So it is only Cortland St and UR that stand in Messiah's way and I am just not seeing it unless those games get moved to the turf which both teams are familiar with. The Amherst/Tufts/MSU pod is a battle as is Trinity/Chicago/Luther and Calvin/Kenyon/Case.

I think you need to get out of New England more. Hopkins and Cortland could both beat Amherst or Tufts.  Not saying they would beat them easily but both e capable. Messiah beat MSU 5-1 earlier this year so including them as a tough out with Tufts and Amherst makes no sense.  I watched Eastern and they were better than I expected. Knocking off F&M is not easy.   By no means does Messiah have a cakewalk to final 4.  They had toughest second round game imo.  Calvin won't have a tough game until elite 8.

Really...I would be willing to bet serious money I have seen more teams across D3 this season than yourself so do not tell me to get out of New England...I never said anything about Cortland OR Hopkins or anything related to Tufts and Amherst....I was unaware Hopkins was still in your sectional coming up.....How many times has ur ass seen Cortland play this season? Probably once against Messiah....You "Falcoln fans" love to over hype your opponents in the Tournament because god forbid your road to the Final 4 is assumed to be almost unworthy...It is almost like the more you write it the more you think we will buy it...Doubtful....IT IS THE EASIEST PATH.

Humble and endearing.  You really are the complete package!

....-k for arrogance.

Ohh the irony!  Though it might explain the -130 k.

You're not still smarting from Williams being sent packing by a mediocre PA school, are you?!?

And funny how yet again one post by one Messiah fan becomes "Falcon fans".

Hey, I have thoughts on the Messiah Sectional, but I'm not sure if I should risk sharing them.  I mean, if I say Messiah is going to cruise to the Final Four, I (and maybe all Falcon Fans) might be judged to be arrogant.  But if I say that Messiah was challenged by Hopkins and suggest that Cortland, Rochester and Eastern might present as much of a challenge to Messiah as the Ramapo/Montclair St winner will to Tufts or Amherst, well . . ., we already know what rudy and Falcon fans accused of.

OK, seriously now, I do think it's possible that Messiah gets through with relative ease, but I'm not counting on that.  Each of the other teams have won a lot of games and beat some very good opponents and have their strengths.  They play the games for a reason.  Messiah has its weaknesses (lack of diverse reliable scoring threats comes to mind) and its hard for anyone to win at this stage if you have an off day.  How their Sectional stacks up to the others, I don't know.  Are Trinity/Luther/St. Thomas really any tougher a set of opponents than Cortland/Rochester/Eastern?  Not sure how to really assess that?  I think Eastern's lack of pedigree and lack of experience at this level could make them the weakest of the bunch, but Luther's current squad has no more NCAA experience than Eastern.  Luther are the best out of the North Region this year, but how does the North stack up with the Mid-Atlantic and East Regions?  Trinity always is hard to gauge because of their geographic isolation and relatively weak schedule.  And on and on. 

I don't put too much stock in the NCAA Regional Rankings, but when looking at the Sweet 16, all teams are #1 or #2 in their regions except Kenyon (#4), Eastern (#5), and unranked PSU-Behrend.  I think that's a fair rough assessment besides Kenyon who I think is on par with the #1's and #2's.  So Messiah will need to beat the East #2 and #1.  Or Eastern, who if they reach the Elite 8 match will have beaten the Mid-Atlantic #2 and East #1 to get there.  I honestly don't think most Falcon fans are over-confident.  We know the games aren't won on paper and that soccer is a fickle sport.  But we do have plenty of reason to be confident and certainly can't complain about the teams we've been grouped with for Sectionals.  It's far from a "group of death", but it's not a cakewalk either.  I like Messiah's chances . . . a lot, but will be nervous until we have a 2-goal lead.

[rudy]

I am sorry Messiah has the absolute easiest road of anyone to the NCAA Final 4.....UR could give them a game but that is if they get by Eastern. UR is the type of team that could give Messiah a game but also lose to Eastern. Eastern is a nice story and all but they have exceeded all expectations and if you look at their schedule there are not to many great Wins except Willy P....I mean based on EB2319 theory on how to evaluate a team if you have not seen them play then Wesleyan(CT) is a better team than Eastern because Wheeler's bunch beat Eastern 1-0 in OT AND outshot them 14-9. Now Eastern is 17-2-2 and Wesleyan finished 4-11-0 but hey what do I know. I have never seen Eastern play so I have no idea what they do well and frankly what their weaknesses are but I would expect Messiah to beat them rather handily. So it is only Cortland St and UR that stand in Messiah's way and I am just not seeing it unless those games get moved to the turf which both teams are familiar with. The Amherst/Tufts/MSU pod is a battle as is Trinity/Chicago/Luther and Calvin/Kenyon/Case.

I think you need to get out of New England more. Hopkins and Cortland could both beat Amherst or Tufts.  Not saying they would beat them easily but both e capable. Messiah beat MSU 5-1 earlier this year so including them as a tough out with Tufts and Amherst makes no sense.  I watched Eastern and they were better than I expected. Knocking off F&M is not easy.   By no means does Messiah have a cakewalk to final 4.  They had toughest second round game imo.  Calvin won't have a tough game until elite 8.

Really...I would be willing to bet serious money I have seen more teams across D3 this season than yourself so do not tell me to get out of New England...I never said anything about Cortland OR Hopkins or anything related to Tufts and Amherst....I was unaware Hopkins was still in your sectional coming up.....How many times has ur ass seen Cortland play this season? Probably once against Messiah....You "Falcoln fans" love to over hype your opponents in the Tournament because god forbid your road to the Final 4 is assumed to be almost unworthy...It is almost like the more you write it the more you think we will buy it...Doubtful....IT IS THE EASIEST PATH.....-k for arrogance.

Ha. Where is arrogance? You are the one claiming easiest path. I'm saying Messiah will have tough games..that is not arrogance. Arrogance is saying Messiah will easily win their group.  -k for you. BTW games just got moved to Rochester so makes it more difficult.   

[Flying Weasel]

Yes, the Sectional has been moved to Rochester due to the snow and freezing rain that's covering southcentral PA.

Saturday
Messiah vs. Cortland at 11:00 am
Rochester vs. Eastern at 1:30 pm

Sunday
Sectional Final at 1:00 pm