The Big Dance

[Ron Boerger]

As for the criteria, selections, etc. ... again, can't speak to that. Not sure if the d3soccer guys have the same type of relationships with the committees those of us at d3football, d3hoops, d3baseball, etc. have with our respective committees (and I'm developing also with lacrosse). We have found it invaluable not only in educating and informing fans and the public ... but for the committees understanding there are people watching other than coaches who have a vested interest and will question what we believe to be mistakes. It also gives the committees (primarily the chairs) the opportunity to discuss their selections. People may not like the answers for a variety of reasons (usually personal or misinformed), but the committee at least explains things at the very least.

OK... I think that's enough from me. Time to start studying these brackets ... I've got to be ready, after-all (hint, hint).

Always appreciate your insight, Dave, but you don't have to be an insider to take exception to Southwestern jumping from #5 to #1 in the regional ranking in a one-week period without any result meriting such a sea change, at least according to majority of the objective criteria the NCAA supposedly bases their selections on.

[1970s NESCAC Player]

On second thought, I will say Montclair hammers Colby, who haven't even won half their games played and statistically were dominated in their last three:
Outshot by Williams 9-3 - advance on PKs
Outshot by Amherst 7-3 - scored on all 3 shots
Outshot by Tufts 10-2 - advance on PKs

Montclair probably will have their way with Colby, but that may not translate into a result.  Colby is well organized defensively, and most opponent shots are either blocked or harmless.  GK Carlson has not had to make many great saves during this run.  Tufts did let them off a bit with wasted chances, but neither Amherst nor Williams had a slew of scoring opportunities.  Colby is also dangerous on the counterattack.

My observation is that the official shot totals may not be totally reliable . . .

All that said, Colby has not had to play from behind, so if Montclair scores first, that may be all they need.

[1970s NESCAC Player]

Williams... 10-5-3 (5 wins vs Ranked, but two vs Hamilton) who snuck in the 3rd NCAA release.    Take that away and you have team well on the outside of the bubble.   Is a .638 WP the lowest of a Pool C in recent years?   

Middlebury hasn't played anyone outside of the NESCAC this year.   I'd love for St. Joe's to knock them off, although I just don't see it.

St. Joe's is fully capable of knocking off Middlebury if St. Joe's plays their usual game.

[PaulNewman]

On second thought, I will say Montclair hammers Colby, who haven't even won half their games played and statistically were dominated in their last three:
Outshot by Williams 9-3 - advance on PKs
Outshot by Amherst 7-3 - scored on all 3 shots
Outshot by Tufts 10-2 - advance on PKs

I didn't necessarily predict competitive....I said interesting, because MSU is a powerhouse and no one expected Colby to be anywhere near the tournament, but they are....AFTER advancing past Tufts (at Tufts), Amherst (at Amherst) and Williams.  They don't need to win the statistical battle to get a result.

Sure, one likely scenario is Montclair is rolling after destroying Ramapo and especially at home will crush a Colby side that is probably exhausted, feels they already won a championship, and may have a hard time matching the efforts they had in the NESCAC tourney.  Is it possible for Colby to show up with the same intensity they showed over the past week? 

On the other hand, and I was about to post this just before you posted....Montclair is probably the most difficult to predict team in the tournament.  They could storm their way into the Final Four routing teams 4-0, 5-0, 3-0 OR they could have a meltdown in the middle of a game and lose 1st round or 2nd round.  Neither would surprise me, but the latter is as close to likely as the former.

[Falconer]

Williams... 10-5-3 (5 wins vs Ranked, but two vs Hamilton) who snuck in the 3rd NCAA release.    Take that away and you have team well on the outside of the bubble.   Is a .638 WP the lowest of a Pool C in recent years?   

Middlebury hasn't played anyone outside of the NESCAC this year.   I'd love for St. Joe's to knock them off, although I just don't see it.

St. Joe's is fully capable of knocking off Middlebury if St. Joe's plays their usual game.

St. Joe's is fully capable of knocking off anyone, as far as I can tell from the results they've produced this year. You don't get those lopsided statistics, especially the hugely impressive defensive statistics, simply with mirrors. Now, I haven't seen them play more than 15 minutes, so I'm not saying they remind me of the Middlebury team (with Casey Ftorek and supporting cast) that won it all without scoring a single goal in the Final Four. I'm not saying that. I have no idea how their style compares with that Midd team. But, the numbers suggest that, like Midd, they seem capable of entirely closing down opponents' scoring opportunities. Midd yielded 8 goals that season, against NESCAC level competition plus the tournament (in which they gave up zero goals in 5 games). If the Monks can come close to duplicating that--and I think they can--they are a Final Four team at worst.

[PaulNewman]

Bracket musings....

I agree that at first blush at least Chicago looks to have the easiest path among the "big four."  That said, I'm guessing that impression is largely influenced by looking at the bottom half of Chicago quad where there does not appear to be any major challenge in an Elite 8 game.  They have to get there, and assuming they get Carleton and then Trinity (or maybe MHB), those could be tricky games (and of course Trinity is familiar with the Maroons from their early season 3-3 draw).  The bottom half of the quad also presents a great opportunity for several teams (Luther, GAC, St Thomas, Augsburg, Knox, etc) to have a nice run and then take a swing at Chicago or whoever get to the Elite 8 from the top.

Calvin's quad has some good teams but I don't see anyone that would worry them a ton, especially at their place.  A CWRU-Capital 2nd round game would be interesting as I believe they had a 1 goal OT game earlier.  A big question is whether Chewy Gordon will even play or be effective if he does.  A Kenyon-CMU game would be a very good 2nd round dogfight but Centre also is on a roll.  Lyco versus John Carroll would be a very competitive 2nd round game.  Kenyon, CMU, Lyco and John Carroll would all have a chance against Calvin but Calvin would be pretty clearly favored in each scenario.

Some of the best 1st rounds games are on the other half of the bracket.....Midd vs St. Joe's, Montclair-Colby should be fascinating, Haverford-NYU, definitely W&L and Hopkins, SLU versus Brockport, Eastern and Mary Washington, and even F&M versus high-octane Western Conn. 

Messiah will have a good 2nd round game with either W&L or JHU, and then could face the winner of a Cortland St-Williams clash.  I could see several teams emerging from the bottom half, so while that lower half has several very good teams (UR, SLU, F&M, Eastern, MW, etc) Messiah will only have to face one of them.  Hard to predict which team that will be.

I don't see Tufts having too much trouble with Stevens or Gordon, especially at home.  The Sweet 16 game, though, with either Midd, St Joe's or Amherst will pose a significant challenge.  I like Conn College's draw in the bottom half of that quad at least to the Sweet 16 (although Fala from Ramapo might be a problem especially if Conn can't score).  Then again, Ramapo might not get by Springfield.  The winner of a projected Haverford-Montclair beauty would like their chances getting all the way to the Final Four, especially if Tufts is not there to meet one of them in the Elite 8.

Good summary. I think Stevens Institute could give Tufts a game. They beat Haverford. They were not a cakewalk last year at Messiah.  I wouldn't underestimate them if they get by first game against Gordon.

You might be right.  I know virtually nothing about Stevens.  Tufts, though, to counter what I said about Montclair, may be the most consistent team in the tournament, at least on par with Messiah and Calvin.  Stevens (or Gordon) will have to play a near-perfect game and get a bounce or two.  Tufts also should be chomping at the bit to come out flying....2 weeks without a game and also waiting out the 1st round (plus getting to scout).

[PaulNewman]

If the bracket can be read consistently, I just realized that CWRU may be the top seed in that quad with Calvin second, so if CWRU gets through the weekend the Spartans would be in line to be Sectional hosts.  Big difference as CWRU is turf on a football versus the natural grass as Calvin.  If someone knows, please confirm or correct.

[PaulNewman]

1970s....will Colby fly or bus to NJ?  Long trip.  Are you going?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As for the criteria, selections, etc. ... again, can't speak to that. Not sure if the d3soccer guys have the same type of relationships with the committees those of us at d3football, d3hoops, d3baseball, etc. have with our respective committees (and I'm developing also with lacrosse). We have found it invaluable not only in educating and informing fans and the public ... but for the committees understanding there are people watching other than coaches who have a vested interest and will question what we believe to be mistakes. It also gives the committees (primarily the chairs) the opportunity to discuss their selections. People may not like the answers for a variety of reasons (usually personal or misinformed), but the committee at least explains things at the very least.

OK... I think that's enough from me. Time to start studying these brackets ... I've got to be ready, after-all (hint, hint).

Always appreciate your insight, Dave, but you don't have to be an insider to take exception to Southwestern jumping from #5 to #1 in the regional ranking in a one-week period without any result meriting such a sea change, at least according to majority of the objective criteria the NCAA supposedly bases their selections on.

Ron - I just haven't had the time to be able to study each rankings, talk with individuals to get an understanding of what's going on, and make my own conclusions. I have been busy trying to get the bills paid and have gigs. I don't mean that as a dismissive statement, I'm just saying ... I'll take your word for it at this point. I just don't have enough information myself to say if that statement, or interpretation, is right or wrong.

You know me, I can give you a breakdown in football, basketball, and lacrosse ... I thought about wading into soccer this year, but I also got enough work to keep me focused on other things (like calling soccer games LOL). Good in that token, unfortunate for my regional ranking watching efforts.

[Bobcat1]

On second thought, I will say Montclair hammers Colby, who haven't even won half their games played and statistically were dominated in their last three:
Outshot by Williams 9-3 - advance on PKs
Outshot by Amherst 7-3 - scored on all 3 shots
Outshot by Tufts 10-2 - advance on PKs

Colby will not be intimated by playing Montclair State. They just played Tufts at Tufts on the turf and withstood 39 shots (11 on goal - I think) with several of them being quality chances. Colby has size, is well organized in the back, and has a very good keeper in Carlson. The longer the game goes scoreless (or if Colby scores first like they did against Amherst) they will make it very difficult for MSU.

Also, the St. Joe's match up with Middlebury will be a great one. Middlebury has a very good starting 11 (assuming they get decent goal-tending in this game). I don't expect St. Joe's to put 11 behind the ball like they did at Tufts last year. I think St. Joe's goes right at Midd and plays them straight up. They are a confident group with Tournament experience and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. The committee has made it a possibility that St. Joe's could have to go through at least 2, 3, and potentially all 4 of the top NESCAC teams from the regular season to get to the Final 4. If the Monks were able to do that it would be one of the great Tournament stories of all time (at least for Mainers).

[lastguyoffthebench]

If the bracket can be read consistently, I just realized that CWRU may be the top seed in that quad with Calvin second, so if CWRU gets through the weekend the Spartans would be in line to be Sectional hosts.  Big difference as CWRU is turf on a football versus the natural grass as Calvin.  If someone knows, please confirm or correct.

I believe it's the most centralized location that gets to host.   CWRU fits that bill....

[1970s NESCAC Player]

1970s....will Colby fly or bus to NJ?  Long trip.  Are you going?

I believe they will bus, as it is probably only 7 hours (400 miles); that's closer than Hamilton (Clinton, NY) from Waterville, which is always a bus trip.

I don't plan to go at this time, although from Providence area, it's only about 200 miles -- I made that trip through NYC so many times for youth soccer tourneys that I avoid it now whenever I can.  However, if there is another miracle Saturday, I might not be able to resist for Sunday . . .

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

If the bracket can be read consistently, I just realized that CWRU may be the top seed in that quad with Calvin second, so if CWRU gets through the weekend the Spartans would be in line to be Sectional hosts.  Big difference as CWRU is turf on a football versus the natural grass as Calvin.  If someone knows, please confirm or correct.

I believe it's the most centralized location that gets to host.   CWRU fits that bill....

Relatively speaking. If everyone is within the 500 mile radius and the committee has no other reasons to change it, the higher regionally ranked, or better criteria, team will host. There are many times that due to those mileage issues the game will be put at the most geographically logical location. There are also times when schools decide they can't host or if both men and women have teams in contention when the odd/even year rules will kick in.

[Mr.Right]

On second thought, I will say Montclair hammers Colby, who haven't even won half their games played and statistically were dominated in their last three:
Outshot by Williams 9-3 - advance on PKs
Outshot by Amherst 7-3 - scored on all 3 shots
Outshot by Tufts 10-2 - advance on PKs

Colby will continue to play the way they have throughout the conference tournament. It still befuddles me how people just make this random pronouncements about teams without ever seeing a team play, their style, their players, their weaknesses,etc etc...You cannot base your opinion of a team just by looking at statistics IMO. Yes you can get an idea MAYBE about a team but not a clear picture. I would be happy to take your wager on a 3-0 MSU result......NJAC teams the past few years have a history of really under performing in the tournament. Think Cabrini over Rowan. I have not seen MSU this year but Colby is so organized defensively MSU will not open them up. They have the 2nd/3rd best GK in Nescac. They are in a tight 4-2-3-1 with very quick pesky skilled wingers. They have two workhorses holding. They have long throws, they have 3 guys over 6'7 to get on the end of them. I could go on....Will they advance? I have no idea...but they play ugly better than anyone is playing ugly right now plus they can counter very well. They will just sit and absorb pressure for 90 minutes if need be and try to steal a goal. MSU will like urself will have studied Colby's record and stats and some of these Jersey kids will be way over confident going into the game. Not all of them but some which is enough...Colby will not be tired...are u kidding me they are psyched to still be practicing and playing and will be jacked and have had a week of rest. The one thing that is against them is the unfamiliarity with NJAC teams and NCAA play but I do not see that being much of a problem...MSU must come out and get a quick goal or two to get Colby out of its shell as that will be the only way to open them up. I agree with whoever said they bloclk a ton of shots and if they cannot block them they have a legit GK to bail them out. The game will go either way and be won by one goal....but you do seem confident so I would be happy to get some action on that 3 goal line you have predicted...... I would go up to maybe 1,000 biscuits tops....

[Ejay]

It still befuddles me how people just make this random pronouncements about teams without ever seeing a team play, their style, their players, their weaknesses,etc etc...You cannot base your opinion of a team just by looking at statistics IMO.

Disagree.  If you haven't seen a team play, then what else can you base your prediction upon?  And for the record, I did watch the NESCAC championship, and hence my quote from upthread "I don't understand all the love for Colby".

NJAC teams the past few years have a history of really under performing in the tournament. Think Cabrini over Rowan.

That's a huge reach. Rowan outplayed and outshot Cabrini 42-2 and lost in OT on a set piece.  They win that game 99/100 times.

I have not seen MSU this year

I have, multiple times.  They are legit.  I'm not saying they're a shoe-in to win it all, but they can cause a lot of damage.  They're coming into the tournament on a hot streak, having scored 18 goals in their last 4 games. They're playing on home turf and will play a team making an 8 hour bus drive. I don't think they'll be overconfident, but rather psyched themselves to be back in the tournament after a rare miss last season. 

The game will go either way and be won by one goal

I'll see your 1,000 biscut tops and raise you 1,000 that it's not a 1 goal game.