The Big Dance

[Ommadawn]

I mean, do we really think Chicago is going to get by Trinity?  Isn't Trinity due for a big win instead of a disappointing exit?  How does this Trinity edition compare with those from the preceding 5-6 years?

Trinity has compiled yet another stellar record over the course of the season.  I would be a lot more confident in their chances of an upset had my dominant impression of their epic battle with Chicago in the heat and humidity of September 2nd not been that the Maroons could easily have scored 2-3 more goals (through some combination of deserving PKs not awarded and Matthew Koh near misses).  A lot may have changed for both teams since then, though, so we'll see...

Come on Rochester fans!  Come out of the shadows and make yourselves known.

I'm not sure that I qualify as a Rochester fan, but I can certainly be counted as an admirer of the program and Coach Apple.  The team is remarkably consistent from year to year, and no one writes a better, more literate recruiting letter (yes, that's "letter," not "email" or "text") than Coach Apple.  Meliora!

[4samuy]

Yeah,  Chicago v Trinity is a tough call.  However IMO,  I've watched quite a few MIAC games this year and thought that style would cause Chicago some fits with the defensive structured bunker mentality. All four MIAC teams were in the top left bracket and you saw what Carleton was able to do. 

Chicago played MIAC squad Macalester earlier in the year and survived 2-0 with a late goal at home for the win. (And I believe Macalester beat St Thomas 3-0 in their match up this year).

I just think that Trinity is good match up for Chicago with the pitch opening up which will play to Chicago's strengths.  The game these teams played earlier in the year, Chicago was up 3-1 with about 30 to play and some crazy calls on both sides ended the game in a draw down in San Antonio.  I will say that Chicago's young back line and keeper have made good strides since that match up and should be ready for the challenge.  I don't buy some of what I've heard about Trinity and the cold weather.  Looking forward to an entertaining match up.

[Falconer]

It might indeed be the case that Messiah will have the toughest road to the Final Four, as has been suggested. Soon we'll know. The Falcons played Rochester in the Elite Eight last year and Cortland to open this year, and they will be very tough outs--even if the Falcons were full strength. In fact, they aren't anywhere near full strength. It is literally not the same team that played most of the conference games. I don't think Cooper Robbins has been cleared to play yet (concussion protocol), and the rest of the injury situation is even worse than it was last weekend. If my sources are right, then I expect at least 5 regulars not to be in the starting lineup, and 3 of them not to play at all, including a CB (Robbins) and the best ball handler, a defensive MF. I cannot recall any previous season in which the Falcons have seen more key players missing at any point in the season, let alone for the most important games. It is what it is: what can you do?

If they can survive the weekend, however, two weeks of rest will surely help. Two men are out for the season regardless, but the Falcons might be close to full strength again if they can get to the Final Four. Big hurdles to clear first.

[PaulNewman]

I mean, do we really think Chicago is going to get by Trinity?  Isn't Trinity due for a big win instead of a disappointing exit?  How does this Trinity edition compare with those from the preceding 5-6 years?

Trinity has compiled yet another stellar record over the course of the season.  I would be a lot more confident in their chances of an upset had my dominant impression of their epic battle with Chicago in the heat and humidity of September 2nd not been that the Maroons could easily have scored 2-3 more goals (through some combination of deserving PKs not awarded and Matthew Koh near misses).  A lot may have changed for both teams since then, though, so we'll see...

Come on Rochester fans!  Come out of the shadows and make yourselves known.

I'm not sure that I qualify as a Rochester fan, but I can certainly be counted as an admirer of the program and Coach Apple.  The team is remarkably consistent from year to year, and no one writes a better, more literate recruiting letter (yes, that's "letter," not "email" or "text") than Coach Apple.  Meliora!

Yes, Meliora ("Ever Better")!

Surprised we haven't had any weather posts.  I guess a storm is coming through but I can't figure out which sites will or will not be significantly impacted.  Sounds like Grantham may be in the crosshairs.

[Flying Weasel]

The snow is already falling here in southcentral PA, with accumulations of 6 inches or more expected in the next few hours followed by rain/sleet/wintery mix this evening and overnight.  No precipitation expected Friday thru Sunday.  Temps to be in the 30 (low) to 45 (high) range throughout.  It's going to be interesting to see what the field condition is at Messiah come Saturday morning.

[Falconer]

Surprised we haven't had any weather posts.  I guess a storm is coming through but I can't figure out which sites will or will not be significantly impacted.  Sounds like Grantham may be in the crosshairs.

Looking out my windows, I see snow falling--big flakes, which usually indicate less accumulation. Central PA is presently forecast as follows: "Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected." It's supposed to be low 40s the next three days, dropping just below freezing at night. I don't think we're going to get smashed on this one, just inconvenienced today and maybe tomorrow morning. I think the snow will be gone from Shoemaker Field by tomorrow evening.

If not, then perhaps they will plow it off of the turf field that had to be used for the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games last year, owing to extraordinarily wet conditions. That's a lovely field, and the Falcons played IMO their single best game all season on that carpet vs Rochester--it's only a bit of an exaggeration to say that Rochester didn't touch the ball. There were long stretches in which that was literally true. Of the 11 Falcon starters that day (https://gomessiah.com/boxscore.aspx?path=msoc&id=6077), however, five graduated and two more are injured. At most four of them will start this weekend--though I'd love to be pleasantly surprised by a higher number.

[Buck O.]

BTW, I'm not sure I've ever seen a UR fan post on this board. 

Come on Rochester fans!  Come out of the shadows and make yourselves known.

Well, I did go to grad school at the U of R, so while they're not my primary rooting interest, I would like for them to do well.  Does that count?

[MinnesotaSoccer10]

I

St Thomas, a team that has had back to back Final Four and Elite 8 seasons, also barely has been mentioned this season.

This year's St. Thomas team is far different from the teams of the past 2 years. They graduated 9 seniors from last years team, with 7 of them being starters (Including the MIAC and USC Player of the year). They are very young this year, and the youth they brought in are good but not at the level of the past 2 years. They were semi-fortunate to get an at large bid, and then very fortunate to host one of the weakest pods in the tournament. I expect Luther to beat them, as they did dominate the bulk of their regular season match up that ended 2-1 in favor of Luther. It can be argued that St. Thomas did start playing better as the season went on, I think they just aren't that talented this year. But, tournament soccer is different and they will try and absorb pressure from Luther and hit them on the break, which could work considering Luther does play a possession/attacking oriented style of soccer.

As I've stated before, I would love to see a Luther/Chicago Elite 8 matchup. For reference, I have not watched Trinity this year, but I have watched the Luther and Chicago and I figure that would be a class game to watch.

[D3Grad]

Chicago played MIAC squad Macalester earlier in the year and survived 2-0 with a late goal at home for the win. (And I believe Macalester beat St Thomas 3-0 in their match up this year).

I would not put much merit on the MIAC vs MIAC games and try to put some transitive property to how Chicago would fare.  Each game will be a different game.  I will say that if St. Thomas finds themselves past Luther the matchup with Chicago (given they win) will be interesting for Chicago.  After falling early to Carleton they will have to make sure that does not happen again.  I believe this St. Thomas will be better than Carleton when it comes to holding onto the game.  A recent tournament experienced coach who has learned how to come back from being down and hold off teams to win. 

This year's St. Thomas team is far different from the teams of the past 2 years. They graduated 9 seniors from last years team, with 7 of them being starters (Including the MIAC and USC Player of the year). They are very young this year, and the youth they brought in are good but not at the level of the past 2 years. They were semi-fortunate to get an at large bid, and then very fortunate to host one of the weakest pods in the tournament. I expect Luther to beat them, as they did dominate the bulk of their regular season match up that ended 2-1 in favor of Luther. It can be argued that St. Thomas did start playing better as the season went on, I think they just aren't that talented this year. But, tournament soccer is different and they will try and absorb pressure from Luther and hit them on the break, which could work considering Luther does play a possession/attacking oriented style of soccer.

You are very right about the youth of this year's team.  I do not think Luther dominated the bulk of the previous game.  I watched it and yes Luther had the ball a bit more but possession is not dominating. St. Thomas played without the starting GK as well.  Teams grow into the tournament and this team may just surprise.  This young team will be a team to keep an eye on as they age.  They are starting in a much better place than the previous graduated senior class did when they showed up as freshman.

[PaulNewman]

BTW, I'm not sure I've ever seen a UR fan post on this board. 

Come on Rochester fans!  Come out of the shadows and make yourselves known.

Well, I did go to grad school at the U of R, so while they're not my primary rooting interest, I would like for them to do well.  Does that count?

Sadly, that does not count, as you only like them and they are not a primary rooting interest.  You are not a true-blue homer for the Yellowjackets.  I am not a true fan either, as I confess to never once going to a UR game during my daughter's four years on River Campus.  But at least you did get a great education.

Falconer, I looked at the box score and the stats were not nearly as lopsided as I expected given your comments.  I'm sure Messiah had a possession advantage as they always do, but after 60+ minutes it was a 0-0 game.

[Falconer]

Falconer, I looked at the box score and the stats were not nearly as lopsided as I expected given your comments.  I'm sure Messiah had a possession advantage as they always do, but after 60+ minutes it was a 0-0 game.

You're right, but after the first goal the Falcons pretty much put the ball in the freezer. There was a stretch in that part of the game when it seemed like 3-4 minutes without anyone from Rochester getting a touch. Some shorter stretches identical to that. In other words, when Rochester absolutely needed to have the ball, they couldn't get it.

[PaulNewman]

Falconer, I looked at the box score and the stats were not nearly as lopsided as I expected given your comments.  I'm sure Messiah had a possession advantage as they always do, but after 60+ minutes it was a 0-0 game.

You're right, but after the first goal the Falcons pretty much put the ball in the freezer. There was a stretch in that part of the game when it seemed like 3-4 minutes without anyone from Rochester getting a touch. Some shorter stretches identical to that. In other words, when Rochester absolutely needed to have the ball, they couldn't get it.

Yeah, Messiah isn't a team you want to be chasing the game with down even 1-0 much less 2-0.  And course we know from just this year that going up a goal or two on Messiah isn't necessarily going to prevent the Falcons from coming back, but if a team has to pick they'd definitely prefer to get the first goal and take their chances (a la Tufts 2014).  An interesting scenario is an even game that gets late, and whether the Falcons as heavy favorites will start to panic a little deep into a game or in OT.  And in pressing for that winning goal do they take the risk of giving up a goal on the counter.  I know Falcons fans were worried (and the announcers were freaking) in 2013 when it was 1-1 with Kenyon late, and in retrospect 2013 might have been the Lord's best chance to get to the Final Four as a converted sitter around the 75th minute would have really put the Falcons in a bind.

[Ommadawn]

An interesting scenario is an even game that gets late, and whether the Falcons as heavy favorites will start to panic a little deep into a game or in OT.  And in pressing for that winning goal do they take the risk of giving up a goal on the counter. 

I just cannot imagine this team panicking.  I was so impressed with their composure when they came back from 2-0 down to JHU, a solid team in its own right.  When behind, even with the clock ticking down, they simply went about their methodical yet relentless attack until the Hopkins lead was wiped out.

[PaulNewman]

An interesting scenario is an even game that gets late, and whether the Falcons as heavy favorites will start to panic a little deep into a game or in OT.  And in pressing for that winning goal do they take the risk of giving up a goal on the counter. 

I just cannot imagine this team panicking.  I was so impressed with their composure when they came back from 2-0 down to JHU, a solid team in its own right.  When behind, even with the clock ticking down, they simply went about their methodical yet relentless attack until the Hopkins lead was wiped out.

Disagree.  I think any team can start to feel really uneasy in a NCAA one-off situation, especially a heavy favorite.  Certainly Messiah more than most teams will have confidence that they can score/equalize and/or snag a late game winner, but when you get to the last 5-10 minutes or overtime when the next goal is most likely going to decide things, and when you are just as worried about the other team getting a late game winner while you're wanting a game winner I don't think there is any immunity to feeling pressure mount.

[Ommadawn]

An interesting scenario is an even game that gets late, and whether the Falcons as heavy favorites will start to panic a little deep into a game or in OT.  And in pressing for that winning goal do they take the risk of giving up a goal on the counter. 

I just cannot imagine this team panicking.  I was so impressed with their composure when they came back from 2-0 down to JHU, a solid team in its own right.  When behind, even with the clock ticking down, they simply went about their methodical yet relentless attack until the Hopkins lead was wiped out.

I didn't say that such panic couldn't or wouldn't happen, just that I couldn't imagine it.  My imagination must not be very good 

Disagree.  I think any team can start to feel really uneasy in a NCAA one-off situation, especially a heavy favorite.  Certainly Messiah more than most teams will have confidence that they can score/equalize and/or snag a late game winner, but when you get to the last 5-10 minutes or overtime when the next goal is most likely going to decide things, and when you are just as worried about the other team getting a late game winner while you're wanting a game winner I don't think there is any immunity to feeling pressure mount.