The Big Dance

[Saint of Old]

The change of location may cost Messiah its 12th championship.

Having played at Messiah in a playoff game, I can attest to the fact thet there is indeed a 12th man factor for the Falcons when they are at home.

Cortland and Rochester know they can beat Messiah or any other team in the country...
Still loads of time left and you cannot write off a champion, but having to travel to Rochester might prove telling.

Not to be a Soccerdamus on this one, but as soon as I heard the venue was changed I thought that they would have issues this weekend.
A team like Messiah has a formula that has worked for almost two decades...
Host until the final four and take care of business once there.
PA is a fortress to these guys.
The program is much more than the players and coaches, it is the Alums and the fans, these guys get a big boost playing infront of a home crowd and more importantly, it can intimidate players nd teams who are not supremely confident in themselves.

Again, congrats to the Falcons, there is also next year.
They will have to replace a few studs, but again, they have been doing this for a couple decades just fine.

[blooter442]

I forced myself to get to the Tufts match....wanted to go up to some Tufts alums (Majumder, Halliday, Conor Coleman, etc) and ask (jokingly) if they wanted to do a live interview for D3soccer.com, especially when I knew I had blooter right there with me.  I did meet blooter for first time in person.  Got the lowdown on those Iceland trips.

Tufts was super-impressive.  They shell-shocked Montclair in the first 10 minutes, not giving MSU time to even get into the game or even start some good complaining.  Don't know if it was because so far behind or because it was Tufts or some of both, but I didn't see MSU try the kind of jawing and physical play we've seen in other games.  MSU was thoroughly outclassed.  Tufts for one thing is much bigger than MSU.  Tasker is quite a player and much stronger and more physical than I remembered for a smaller guy.  Tufts is very skilled, very big, and can be very physical when needed.  Very organized and very deep.  I have a hard time picturing them losing unless via PKs.

Mixed feelings about the Messiah result which I didn't see at all.  On the one hand, very happy for a team like Rochester to break through for a Final Four....but on the other we yet again are denied a Tufts-Messiah match on a big stage.  I honestly think that would be a 50/50 game (with Messiah at or near full strength) and where Tufts would probably find a way.  Would also have been interesting to see what Shapiro would do (or not do) to deal with West. 

PN and I had a fun time, and for those who are wondering, there really is not too much to the trips other than — in addition to my well-documented and shameless avgeekery — me feeling like I'm beating the system by going to Europe for less than $300 round trip.

I particularly agree with the point about not being able to see Tufts lose other than a PK shootout. I've said this before but, last year, when Brandeis and Tufts met at this stage I was not confident at all of the Judges winning in regulation or overtime — I felt Tufts had a certain air of inevitability in terms of winning close games (as the Jumbos did in last year's regular season game). I did feel that if that game went to PKs that Brandeis would have a chance since I thought Woodhouse to be the superior keeper to Mieth (and one who saved 40% of penalties he faced) and Tufts had been through two shootouts in as many games. The only reason that game didn't go to penalties was a fluke goal with a minute left in the second OT. Anyway — fully recognizing I found a way to bring this back to my own team (my apologies) — the point is that a fluke event like that is not likely to happen again in the next two games and I don't see the Tufts defense being completely overwhelmed by another offense: the back line looked very solid and Najjar (whom I thought to be the most uncertain part of that back four) has looked more assured than I've seen before. Anyway, big task on Rochester's hands. That one will be a fun watch.

[NEsoccerfan]

Chicago with an outstanding 29-5 shot advantage going into OT, with a handful cleared off the line. I'm getting some Northern Park Deja Vu...

[blooter442]

Chicago wins it in OT...who else, Lopez...lol the announcer didn't know that the game is over.

[Saint of Old]

I have heard announcers refer to corners as free kicks and offsides as fouls.
I think in a few years we will have more guys calling games wo grew up playing, or even better  alumnis of the schools who know the players and programs.

[Brother Flounder]

I forced myself to get to the Tufts match....wanted to go up to some Tufts alums (Majumder, Halliday, Conor Coleman, etc) and ask (jokingly) if they wanted to do a live interview for D3soccer.com, especially when I knew I had blooter right there with me.  I did meet blooter for first time in person.  Got the lowdown on those Iceland trips.

Tufts was super-impressive.  They shell-shocked Montclair in the first 10 minutes, not giving MSU time to even get into the game or even start some good complaining.  Don't know if it was because so far behind or because it was Tufts or some of both, but I didn't see MSU try the kind of jawing and physical play we've seen in other games.  MSU was thoroughly outclassed.  Tufts for one thing is much bigger than MSU.  Tasker is quite a player and much stronger and more physical than I remembered for a smaller guy.  Tufts is very skilled, very big, and can be very physical when needed.  Very organized and very deep.  I have a hard time picturing them losing unless via PKs.

Mixed feelings about the Messiah result which I didn't see at all.  On the one hand, very happy for a team like Rochester to break through for a Final Four....but on the other we yet again are denied a Tufts-Messiah match on a big stage.  I honestly think that would be a 50/50 game (with Messiah at or near full strength) and where Tufts would probably find a way.  Would also have been interesting to see what Shapiro would do (or not do) to deal with West.

Well, you survived your trip to Tufts... that's good to hear! I agree about wanting to see a Tufts Messiah match!  Anyway, again no repeat champion! Congrats to the remaining 4 teams!

[NEsoccerfan]

UAA with back to back 3 teams in the elite 8 and 2 teams in the final 4. Quite impressive. Can one or both break through? Notwithstanding their great season, I don't like Rochester's odds of prevailing against Tufts. Chicago Calvin is going to be one hell of an offensive showdown. I can't wait. Torn on who to root for now that messiah is out. Underdog Rochester? Arguably the most talented Chicago? Perennial runner up calvin? Tufts winning their 3rd in 5 years?

Both Chicago and Calvin have superstar seniors that have been so close (e.g., vegter, witte, Lopez,
Koh, capotosto) but have yet to taste the glory. Reading those names out loud, I think it's arguable those are 5 of the top 10-20 players in the country. I think I'll be cheering for the winner of that game.

[blue_jays]

In real time, this goal was fast as hell. 3 one-touches and Lopez buried it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEh4CBLKoas&feature=youtu.be

[NEsoccerfan]

In real time, this goal was fast as hell. 3 one-touches and Lopez buried it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEh4CBLKoas&feature=youtu.be

BEAUTIFUL stuff. THIS is what soccer is meant to look like - the Messiah, Chicago, Calvin etc. brand. Not that long throw, dump and run nonsense.

[Falconer]

Congratulations to Rochester on a well deserved trip to the Final Four. I would have chimed in earlier, but I spent most of the day on a long road trip, missed the game (I suppose that saved me some anxiety), and only now have a chance to extend my kudos.

I an strongly wishing for a Calvin-Rochester final, with the Knights taking home the trophy as a culmination of a series of terrific seasons without one.

[blooter442]

Watched the replay of UR-Messiah -- ugh, the UR color commentator drove me nuts. Every time a goal was scored he would interrupt the play-by-play guy to get in a line. Other than that didn't speak much at all, leaving the PBP guy to do the color and PBP himself.

[blue_jays]

In real time, this goal was fast as hell. 3 one-touches and Lopez buried it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEh4CBLKoas&feature=youtu.be

BEAUTIFUL stuff. THIS is what soccer is meant to look like - the Messiah, Chicago, Calvin etc. brand. Not that long throw, dump and run nonsense.

If you watched Lopez on the stream, it was maybe the most nonchalant NCAA game-winner you'll ever see. Held up his arms for a few seconds and walked back calmly to his swarming teammates. He's one cool customer, never would have known it was probably the biggest goal of his career.

[truenorth]

Back to back years with 3 UAA teams in the elite 8 - quite impressive IMO. Let's see if they can repeat with 2 in the final 4. If Chicago or Rochester can win it all, id argue the UAA is the top conference over the last two years.

This is always a fun debate.  The UAA has without question had a very good run in recent years...3 teams in the elite 8 this year is impressive!  I think this point has been raised before...but doesn't the UAA's geographical dispersion help its teams' chances of getting into and advancing through the NCAA tournament?  One wonders if the NESCAC would advance more teams through the early rounds if they had schools in Chicago, St. Louis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, NYC and upstate NY rather than beating on each other and the dozens of other D3 schools in New England...

Also, at the end of the day, it's about winning.  The NESCAC has had four different schools win the tournament (Williams, Middlebury, Tufts and Amherst) and a fifth (Bowdoin) make the final four.  If/when the UAA has several schools win the whole thing, then it's truly game on!

[blooter442]

This is always a fun debate.  The UAA has without question had a very good run in recent years...3 teams in the elite 8 this year is impressive!  I think this point has been raised before...but doesn't the UAA's geographical dispersion help its teams' chances of getting into and advancing through the NCAA tournament?  One wonders if the NESCAC would advance more teams through the early rounds if they had schools in Chicago, St. Louis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, NYC and upstate NY rather than beating on each other and the dozens of other D3 schools in New England...

Also, at the end of the day, it's about winning.  The NESCAC has had four different schools win the tournament (Williams, Middlebury, Tufts and Amherst) and a fifth (Bowdoin) make the final four.  If/when the UAA has several schools win the whole thing, then it's truly game on!

As someone who thinks a UAA team needs to win a national title in the modern era before the conference can be considered on the same level as the NESCAC, I fully think the NESCAC still holds superior. However, I think there is an alternative viewpoint with regards to geography — that having all teams in a given conference in one part of the bracket (whether the same quadrant or same half) actually helps the chances of said conference having a team in the Final 4.

From a pure probability standpoint, if you give each team a 50% chance of winning each game, the chance that a given team wins all four NCAA games prior to the Final 4 is 6.25% (.50^4=.0625). If you have four teams in four different quadrants, each team's chances are 6.25%. However, if you have, say, four teams in the same quadrant, the probability that one out of those four teams gets to the Final 4 is 25%.

I realize that this is far from perfect, and do not anticipate this would hold up in D3 Court (or NESCAC Court, presided by Justice Flounder  ). Moreover, byes nonwithstanding, I can understand that NESCAC teams tend to "cannibalize" one another by being in the same part of the bracket. However, by looking at each region without considering the betting lines on a particular game, it could be argued that having all teams local improves the NESCAC's chances of having a representative in the Final 4.

Now, what is not arguable is that NESCAC teams have gotten it done in the Final 4, whereas UAA teams have not —although I think most of us can agree Chicago got robbed last year by a blown call. That — the UAA's record in Final 4 matches — is something that the conference will be hoping changes this year.

[Buck O.]

Back to back years with 3 UAA teams in the elite 8 - quite impressive IMO. Let's see if they can repeat with 2 in the final 4. If Chicago or Rochester can win it all, id argue the UAA is the top conference over the last two years.

This is always a fun debate.  The UAA has without question had a very good run in recent years...3 teams in the elite 8 this year is impressive!  I think this point has been raised before...but doesn't the UAA's geographical dispersion help its teams' chances of getting into and advancing through the NCAA tournament?  One wonders if the NESCAC would advance more teams through the early rounds if they had schools in Chicago, St. Louis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, NYC and upstate NY rather than beating on each other and the dozens of other D3 schools in New England...

Also, at the end of the day, it's about winning.  The NESCAC has had four different schools win the tournament (Williams, Middlebury, Tufts and Amherst) and a fifth (Bowdoin) make the final four.  If/when the UAA has several schools win the whole thing, then it's truly game on!

If the question is which has been the top conference over the last two years, which is the way that NESoccerFan posed it, then I think it's obvious that it's the UAA, even if neither Chicago or Rochester wins the tournament.  Over the last two years, the UAA has claimed seven Elite Eight spots out of a total of 16 available, and four Final Four spots out of a total of eight available.  In contrast, the NESCAC has claimed only two Elite Eight spots and one Final Four spot. 

In theory, it's possible that the NESCAC schools that are all assigned to the same regional could knock each other out, limiting the number of teams that cold advance (although I'll point out that this works the other way, too; if two teams from the same conference play, one won't advance, but one will, so with Tufts, Amherst and Midd all being assiged to the same half of the same regional, while only one of those teams could make the Elite Eight, there was an excellent chance that one of those teams would make the Elite Eight).  But over the last two years, the only intra-NESCAC matchup was Tufts' win over Amherst on Sat., which matches the number of intra-UAA matchups over the last two years (Chicago having beaten Emory in a regional final last year).