2020 NCAA Tournament

[CNU85]

Another interesting factoid is that out of the top 50 schools in 3pt FG defense, 17 (34%) are in the tournament.  That would point to 3 pt defense being a key stat for successful teams.

But that also means 66% are sitting home this weekend. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Another interesting factoid is that out of the top 50 schools in 3pt FG defense, 17 (34%) are in the tournament.  That would point to 3 pt defense being a key stat for successful teams.

But that also means 66% are sitting home this weekend. 

It's 11 of the Top 20, though.

[Smitty Oom]

Another interesting factoid is that out of the top 50 schools in 3pt FG defense, 17 (34%) are in the tournament.  That would point to 3 pt defense being a key stat for successful teams.

But that also means 66% are sitting home this weekend. 

But only 15% of all teams are in the tourney! So that means more than double what would you expect if it was completely random or the stat had no effect on a teams success.

[CNU85]

Another interesting factoid is that out of the top 50 schools in 3pt FG defense, 17 (34%) are in the tournament.  That would point to 3 pt defense being a key stat for successful teams.

But that also means 66% are sitting home this weekend. 

But only 15% of all teams are in the tourney! So that means more than double what would you expect if it was completely random or the stat had no effect on a teams success.

aha...that math stuff! Thanks!

[Colby Hoops]

I'm surprised that correlates so well for D3. In the NBA (which admittedly is world's different than D3) 3pt FG defense is seen as something that defenses can't control very effectively. For most team's it regresses back to the mean over a large sample.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'm surprised that correlates so well for D3. In the NBA (which admittedly is world's different than D3) 3pt FG defense is seen as something that defenses can't control very effectively. For most team's it regresses back to the mean over a large sample.

The extra space makes a big difference.  Even NBA bodies can't effectively cover all that distance consistently.  The tighter three point zone in college does make it a little easier for defenses to scheme.  There are a few mitigating factors, though - fast paced teams often have low 3pt defense because opponents just aren't shooting many (pressure defense provides more opportunity to get the ball to the rim).  I'm sure there are more advanced stats that account for those things.

[AO]

I'm surprised that correlates so well for D3. In the NBA (which admittedly is world's different than D3) 3pt FG defense is seen as something that defenses can't control very effectively. For most team's it regresses back to the mean over a large sample.

The extra space makes a big difference.  Even NBA bodies can't effectively cover all that distance consistently.  The tighter three point zone in college does make it a little easier for defenses to scheme.  There are a few mitigating factors, though - fast paced teams often have low 3pt defense because opponents just aren't shooting many (pressure defense provides more opportunity to get the ball to the rim).  I'm sure there are more advanced stats that account for those things.

I'd say it's more about NBA players bringing less defensive effort as the games are longer, the season is way longer and zone defense is illegal. 

[smedindy]

Zone has been legal since 2001, but they still have a defensive three seconds rule.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/17/sports/basketball/nba-zone-defense.html

[CNU85]

Zone has been legal since 2001, but they still have a defensive three seconds rule.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/17/sports/basketball/nba-zone-defense.html

They play D in the NBA? Bahahahaha. I stopped watching the NBA a long time ago. So boring!

[Colby Hoops]

I'm surprised that correlates so well for D3. In the NBA (which admittedly is world's different than D3) 3pt FG defense is seen as something that defenses can't control very effectively. For most team's it regresses back to the mean over a large sample.

The extra space makes a big difference.  Even NBA bodies can't effectively cover all that distance consistently.  The tighter three point zone in college does make it a little easier for defenses to scheme.  There are a few mitigating factors, though - fast paced teams often have low 3pt defense because opponents just aren't shooting many (pressure defense provides more opportunity to get the ball to the rim).  I'm sure there are more advanced stats that account for those things.

I'd say it's more about NBA players bringing less defensive effort as the games are longer, the season is way longer and zone defense is illegal.

If it was effort based, you'd expect it would show up in the playoffs, which it does not. I think Ryan's floor spacing comments certainly make sense. Additionally, given the effectiveness of pick and rolls and how good guys are off the dribble in the NBA, if teams sell out to stop threes, they're almost certainly giving up better looks at the rim. At this level, you don't have to compromise your interior defense nearly as much to stop the three.

There are obviously a lot of things that don't translate from the NBA to D3. Post ups in D3 can still be a +EV offense, where in the NBA that's rarely the case. Just found it interesting!

[sac]

3pt defense is tricky, it can be fairly random.  Having a low 3pt% defense can also mean you just played a bunch of below average 3pt shooting teams or even a lot of home games as even good teams tend to shoot 3's at lower % on the road.

When the line moves out another foot for D3, I suspect we'll see 3pt numbers come down a bit more, both accuracy and volume.

[Pat Coleman]

I'd definitely agree that it could take a dip temporarily, but typically those numbers have come back up after a short period. I also think that as analytics continues to permeate basketball, we'll probably have more 3's shot.

[AO]

Zone has been legal since 2001, but they still have a defensive three seconds rule.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/17/sports/basketball/nba-zone-defense.html

The 3 second rule makes it very difficult to play zone, so most don't even try.  In theory a zone would allow more 3s, so maybe that wasn't the best example anyways.

If it was effort based, you'd expect it would show up in the playoffs, which it does not. I think Ryan's floor spacing comments certainly make sense. Additionally, given the effectiveness of pick and rolls and how good guys are off the dribble in the NBA, if teams sell out to stop threes, they're almost certainly giving up better looks at the rim. At this level, you don't have to compromise your interior defense nearly as much to stop the three.

There are obviously a lot of things that don't translate from the NBA to D3. Post ups in D3 can still be a +EV offense, where in the NBA that's rarely the case. Just found it interesting!

There is definitely another level of defense in the NBA playoffs, but the teams that are left are usually pretty good at shooting the 3, so the stats might not show that extra effort.

[D3RetiredHooper]

How hard would it be for the committee to try and seed teams 1-16 in each region?  Colby/CNU would be a heck of a 5/12 game in the division-1 bracket, assuming Stevens is a 4-seed.  Obviously CNU is fairly land-locked and could only get to Mt Union, Stevens, Swat, Hopkins (who they played already) and Macon (who they played already) so that may not be a fair example.

For instance, Mount Union Region according to Massey (not a NCAA measurement) and where they finished ranked in their region:

1. Mt Union (1) GL-1
16. Cairn (284) Unranked
8. York (26) MA-3
9. St John Fisher (96) Unranked

4. Wittenberg (6) GL-3
13. La Roche (145) GL-9
5. Benedictine (83) CE-5
12. Susquehanna (93) MA-8

2. Macon (3) S-1
15. Wesley (142) AT-4
7. Marietta (20) GL-4
10. TCNJ (57) AT-3

3. Hopkins (14) MA-2
14. Penn State Harrisburg (202) Unranked
6. WPI (45) NE-5
11. Yeshiva (22) AT-2

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

How hard would it be for the committee to try and seed teams 1-16 in each region?  Colby/CNU would be a heck of a 5/12 game in the division-1 bracket, assuming Stevens is a 4-seed.  Obviously CNU is fairly land-locked and could only get to Mt Union, Stevens, Swat, Hopkins (who they played already) and Macon (who they played already) so that may not be a fair example.

For instance, Mount Union Region according to Massey (not a NCAA measurement) and where they finished ranked in their region:

1. Mt Union (1) GL-1
16. Cairn (284) Unranked
8. York (26) MA-3
9. St John Fisher (96) Unranked

4. Wittenberg (6) GL-3
13. La Roche (145) GL-9
5. Benedictine (83) CE-5
12. Susquehanna (93) MA-8

2. Macon (3) S-1
15. Wesley (142) AT-4
7. Marietta (20) GL-4
10. TCNJ (57) AT-3

3. Hopkins (14) MA-2
14. Penn State Harrisburg (202) Unranked
6. WPI (45) NE-5
11. Yeshiva (22) AT-2

Very difficult to do because the D1 tournament can move teams around to find the appropriate seeds to face each team. They don't have any travel restrictions. DIII has massive travel restrictions with brackets being determined by 500 mile travel rules and hosting determined by who put in/available to host and which gender has the priority that particular year (look at Tufts women which got the top seeded spot, but is on the road because their men are hosting).