UAA 2019

[Buck O.]

In looking at those records, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the UAA is unlikely to get more than two tournament bids this year.  Entering league play, Chicago, Brandeis, Rochester and WashU were all in relatively good shape to get tournament bids with reasonably good records in the league.  Chicago is a cinch, of course.  Brandeis closes out with games at Springfield, at Emory, at Rochester, and home against NYU; I'd think they should be in good shape if they close out 3-1.  Everyone else has at least five losses.  NYU, Rochester, Emory and WashU might be able to qualify by winning out, but I think that will be a minimum requirement.

[MaturinNYC]

Apple (or was it the bench?) got a yellow card along with the goal — I can 100% understand going over the top in the circumstances. Anecdotally, though, he seems to get a lot of yellows as a coach, but the Yellowjackets won't care a bit.

It was a bench card (actually given to the reserve GK) for unlawful entry on the field - the clock had gone to zero and everyone thought the game was over so they ran on to celebrate. As for Coach Apple getting a lot of yellows, i can't say i've seen one in the past few years - though i'll always remember the NYU Coach getting a straight red 2 years ago. #fireworks

Goes to show there are no gimmes in the UAA.

Amen to that!

[MaturinNYC]

In looking at those records, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the UAA is unlikely to get more than two tournament bids this year.  Entering league play, Chicago, Brandeis, Rochester and WashU were all in relatively good shape to get tournament bids with reasonably good records in the league.  Chicago is a cinch, of course.  Brandeis closes out with games at Springfield, at Emory, at Rochester, and home against NYU; I'd think they should be in good shape if they close out 3-1.  Everyone else has at least five losses.  NYU, Rochester, Emory and WashU might be able to qualify by winning out, but I think that will be a minimum requirement.

I think that's a big story so far - one year out of putting two teams in the Final Four, the league is looking like it will only get 2-3 in this year. Nervy times ahead...

[MaturinNYC]

Here's the updated Preseason Prognosticators Leaderboard (3 pts for each accurate placement):

CURRENT STANDINGS: 
Top 3: Chicago, NYU, Brandeis
Mid 3: CMU, Emory, Rochester   
Last 2: CWRU, WashU   

Buck O.:    6 PTS
Top three:  Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three:  Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two:  CMU, NYU

RollDeisRoll     6 PTS
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie

Dr.Walk-On*    6 PTS
Top 3: Case, NYU, UR
Mid 3 : Brandeis, Chicago, Emory*
Bottom 2: Carnegie, WashU

MaturinNYC:    3 PTS
Top 3:   CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3:   BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2:  CAR, EMR

A three-way tie for mediocrity - 6pts out of a possible 24! It's a wild and crazy ride in the UAA - who knows what the last 3 game days will bring?  Good luck all (except when you're playing my team ;-)!

[blooter442]

It was a bench card (actually given to the reserve GK) for unlawful entry on the field - the clock had gone to zero and everyone thought the game was over so they ran on to celebrate. As for Coach Apple getting a lot of yellows, i can't say i've seen one in the past few years - though i'll always remember the NYU Coach getting a straight red 2 years ago. #fireworks

Fair enough, and maybe it isn't him — it's possible that what you just said (a yellow to the bench) may well be what I've seen when I said I've "seen him get others." What I am referring to is seeing a number of "Yellow Card on Rochester TEAM" in box scores which I generally take to be the coach. That said, could also be the assistant coach or the bench. Perhaps my perception is skewed because I remember UR getting successive "TEAM" cards — yellow then red — in a 2014 game with Carnegie where the Yellowjackets came from behind in the last 10 minutes to win 2-1 (after the red was issued). Not making a judgement about the program itself, everyone has their "days," but that seemed to weigh more heavily on the mind.

As for Apple himself, the one time I remember him being apoplectic was when he had a penalty appeal denied while his team was losing 2-1 at Brandeis back in 2016. Quite frankly after watching the video back I thought it was a penalty — so maybe he had a point!

Did not see the NYU red — bet there's a story there!

[Buck O.]

Here's the updated Preseason Prognosticators Leaderboard (3 pts for each accurate placement):

CURRENT STANDINGS: 
Top 3: Chicago, NYU, Brandeis
Mid 3: CMU, Emory, Rochester   
Last 2: CWRU, WashU   

Buck O.:    6 PTS
Top three:  Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three:  Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two:  CMU, NYU

RollDeisRoll     6 PTS
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie

Dr.Walk-On*    6 PTS
Top 3: Case, NYU, UR
Mid 3 : Brandeis, Chicago, Emory*
Bottom 2: Carnegie, WashU

MaturinNYC:    3 PTS
Top 3:   CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3:   BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2:  CAR, EMR

A three-way tie for mediocrity - 6pts out of a possible 24! It's a wild and crazy ride in the UAA - who knows what the last 3 game days will bring?  Good luck all (except when you're playing my team ;-)!

I think I have nine points according to your standings.  Then again, Wash and Rochester have the same record and WashU won the H2H matchup, so I'd put them in 6th and Rochester in 7th--which puts me back at six points.

[MaturinNYC]

As usual you are correct - you should show 9 pts. and the lead! (this is pegged to how uaasports.info presents standings - can't speak to the tiebreakers on that but it appears that WashU's H-to-H win doesn't play into it).

Buck O.:    9 PTS
Top three:  Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three:  Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two:  CMU, NYU

No conference games this weekend but NYU, Rochester, WashU, Emory and Case all have non-conference games -- which have taken on an unexpected importance in this season where the relative weakness in non-conference games across the league looks to suppress the Pool C/At large invites. Good luck to all the UAA teams in action!

[Buck O.]

WashU lost to Wisconsin-Platteville (#177 in the Massey rankings) 2-1 today.  For the second consecutive game, WashU gave up an early goal on a header that was softer than a marshmallow.  After being outshot 3-0 over the first 25 minutes in a game that generally resembled pinball, WashU started to play some soccer and outshot UWP 15-2 over the next 60 minutes, tying the game at 1-1 in the 31st minute on a Will Sproule goal, almost taking the lead in the second half on a goal that was (correctly) called offside, and generating several good chances which far too often concluded in shots straight at the keeper.  Unfortunately, the last five minutes belonged to UWP.  The Pioneers' Jack Gentilli got behind the WashU defenders for a 1-on-1 in the 87th minute that WashU keeper Matt Martin was able to stop, but in the next minute, Gentilli got his revenge as Martin fell down trying to get to a corner kick, leaving an open goal for Gentilli to finish off the Bears.

With their fourth straight loss, WashU falls to 6-6-1 overall, and any remaining chance at a Pool C bid evaporated.  This will be the third straight year that WashU has failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament, their longest stretch since they failed to qualify for six straight tournaments from 2000 through 2005.

[Buck O.]

In the next-to-last weekend of the season, Case and CMU will visit Chicago and WashU, while Emory and Rochester will host Brandeis and NYU. I may as well make some predictions, since they can't possibly be worse than my previous predictions.

In the games to be played in Chicago and St. Louis, Chicago might be able to lock up another UAA championship this weekend, and is a lock for the NCAA tournament, while the other teams have no shot at a Pool C bid, so their hopes rest on winning the league.  CMU actually has a glimmer of hope, as a sweep of this weekend's games would put them no more than three points out of the UAA lead heading into the final weekend, with a H2H win over Chicago to boot.  In theory, WashU still might be able to win the UAA title as well, if they win their last three games, Chicago loses its last three, and a bunch of other things happen.  Also, in theory, you can flip a coin and have it come up edge, but I wouldn't count on it.  Finally, Case has been mathematically eliminated and is playing out the string, hoping to avoid going from the Elite Eight one season to the UAA basement the next, as Emory did in 2017 and 2018.

Predictions for Friday:  Chicago 2, Case 0; WashU 1, CMU 1
Predictions for Sunday:  Chicago 3, CMU 1; WashU 1, Case 0

In the other set of games, Brandeis should be in good shape for a Pool C bid if they have a good weekend, while I suspect that NYU, Rochester and Emory will need to win out.  If they were to do so, then NYU would have closed out the season on a 10-1 run after starting 0-4-1, with the sole loss in that stretch coming in the second OT against Chicago; moreover, they'd be the second-place finisher in the UAA with a 6-1 record, and even in a down year for the UAA, that would be impressive.  I think that would be enough.  I think that Rochester would have a somewhat lesser chance:  other than Hobart, who have they beaten (although winning their last three would add some good wins)?  Finally, I have trouble seeing Emory getting in even if they close with three straight wins; as I've written before, I think there's a glitch in Ken Massey's code that's giving them a higher rating (#62) than their record warrants.

Predictions for Friday:  Brandeis 2, Emory 1; Rochester 0, NYU 0
Predictions for Sunday:  NYU 1, Emory 1; Rochester 1, Brandeis 0

[rolldeisroll]

Friday:

Brandeis 2-0 Emory
Chicago 1-0 Case
Wash U 0-0 Carnegie
NYU 1-1 Rochester

Sunday:
Brandeis 1-0 Rochester
Chicago 2-0 Carnegie
Wash U 1-1 Case
NYU 1-0 Emory

[SideNetting]

Hello Internet Friends.
Sorry to have fired y'all up with my call on NYU/Chicago.
I'll venture into the fire again understanding that general parity across the league can make anyone, even me, seem prescient in the way that randomly calling "8 of diamonds" every time a deck of cards is cut, at some point will make you look like magic. So with a two-game weekend fanfare, here goes nothing:
"8 of Diamonds!"

Br 0:1 Emory
Chicago 2:0 CWR
WU 0:2 CMU
NYU 2:0 RU

Br 3:1 RU
Chicago 1:1 CMU
WU 1:2 CWR
NYU 2:1 Emory

[EastCoastSoccer]

Case v Chicago: 0-1
Brandeis v Emory: 2-0
NYU v Rochester: 1-0
Carnegie v Wash U: 1-1

Brandeis v Rochester: 1-0
NYU v Emory: 2-0
Carnegie v Chicago: 0-3
Case v Wash U: 2-1

Points on the Weekend:
Chicago 12+6 = 18 *Clinches UAA*
NYU 9+6 = 15
Brandeis 7+6 = 13
Carnegie 6+1 = 7
Case 2+3 = 5
Emory 4+0 = 4
Wash U 3+1 = 4
Rochester 3+0 = 3

Pretty disappointing season for my Yellowjackets, but I just can't see them coming away with any points this weekend.

[PaulNewman]

Case v Chicago: 0-1
Brandeis v Emory: 2-0
NYU v Rochester: 1-0
Carnegie v Wash U: 1-1

Brandeis v Rochester: 1-0
NYU v Emory: 2-0
Carnegie v Chicago: 0-3
Case v Wash U: 2-1

Points on the Weekend:
Chicago 12+6 = 18 *Clinches UAA*
NYU 9+6 = 15
Brandeis 7+6 = 13
Carnegie 6+1 = 7
Case 2+3 = 5
Emory 4+0 = 4
Wash U 3+1 = 4
Rochester 3+0 = 3

Pretty disappointing season for my Yellowjackets, but I just can't see them coming away with any points this weekend.

Pessimism is a poor anecdote for warding off disappointment (which I know quite well). 

Not saying it's going to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if UR goes 3-0 or at least 2-0-1 in the last three.  My gut tells me that they will and will end up in the tournament.

[MaturinNYC]

I'll jump in as well and post my coin-flips carefully reasoned predictions:

Predictions for Friday: 
Chicago 3, Case 0 --- having seen both these teams live, i just don't see where Case gets on the board or even gets much possession in their offensive half, so over 90 minutes i think Chicago will finish 3.

WashU 0, CMU 1 --- CMU gets a late winner in this one i think, as their well-organized defense will limit WashU's weak offense (last in GF)

Brandeis 2, Emory 1 --- Emory always plays strong at home, but i just think the Judges get out with a win based on their clicking offense

Rochester 2, NYU 1 --- A year out from the Final Four, i just think this team knows they need to go 3-0 to have any hope of getting back to the tournament, and they are at home which should be enough to overcome an NYU team that is flying high recently, but has had struggles this year. It's interesting to note that both these teams have identical GF/GA so far (18 - 12, along with CMU). 


Predictions for Sunday: 
Chicago 3, CMU 1 --- Chicago brings the most dynamic attack in the league, and CMU withstands it for a while before falling.

WashU 1, Case 1 --- Both of these teams get chances, but on balance i would think Case either wins or gets by with a draw. 

NYU 2, Emory 1 --- NYU gets the better of Emory in the first half, and withstands a late Eagles comeback to get out of Atlanta with 3pts.

Rochester 2, Brandeis 0 --- The 'Jackets use home field advantage to win out the weekend and keep hopes of a Pool C bid alive, finally getting a 2 goal cushion.

[EastCoastSoccer]

Case v Chicago: 0-1
Brandeis v Emory: 2-0
NYU v Rochester: 1-0
Carnegie v Wash U: 1-1

Brandeis v Rochester: 1-0
NYU v Emory: 2-0
Carnegie v Chicago: 0-3
Case v Wash U: 2-1

Points on the Weekend:
Chicago 12+6 = 18 *Clinches UAA*
NYU 9+6 = 15
Brandeis 7+6 = 13
Carnegie 6+1 = 7
Case 2+3 = 5
Emory 4+0 = 4
Wash U 3+1 = 4
Rochester 3+0 = 3

Pretty disappointing season for my Yellowjackets, but I just can't see them coming away with any points this weekend.

Pessimism is a poor anecdote for warding off disappointment (which I know quite well). 

Not saying it's going to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if UR goes 3-0 or at least 2-0-1 in the last three.  My gut tells me that they will and will end up in the tournament.

Looks like you were right! What a demanding win over NYU tonight. I think this loss will likely eliminate NYU's hopes of making the tournament. They are a chippy team that really goes after players. 3 yellows tonight, two against Chicago, four against Wash U, two against Carnegie, and three against Case. It's tough watching such a technical team be so reckless and punkish with their challenges.

In other news, Chicago has officially clinched their fourth UAA Championship in a row. Any points the remainder of the season will make them outright Champions. No other team has done that in the history of the UAA. Carnegie, the one exception, won 5 straight from 2000-2004, but shared the crown with Chicago in 2001. What an accomplishment for the seniors Barovick, Corghi, and Johnson. What an accomplishment for their program.