UAA 2019

[Domino1195]

Solid observations Re: NYU. Of all the "T's" I use to assess a side, "toughness" is perhaps the most important when sides are otherwise even. Toughness isn't just physical - mental toughness is just as critical. Stupid fouls in the defensive end - especially given the number of set piece goals being scored this year - and excessive cautions - lead to more losses than players want to acknowledge.

And a huge shout-out to "first year" coach Patrick Flinn. I place quotes around his tenure because he has been an integral part of UC's program for years. He recruited many of the key players that played for Coach Babst and it seems UC is in good hands going forward.

[Flying Weasel]

Not only has Chicago clinched at least a share of the UAA title, but they have become the first team to book their place in the 2019 NCAA Tournament.  Because they hold the head-to-head tie-breaker over 2nd place NYU, Chicago has locked up the UAA automatic berth.

[Buck O.]

Not only has Chicago clinched at least a share of the UAA title, but they have become the first team to book their place in the 2019 NCAA Tournament.  Because they hold the head-to-head tie-breaker over 2nd place NYU, Chicago has locked up the UAA automatic berth.

Well, maybe.  Does anyone really know if that's the tiebreaker?

[blue_jays]

Not only has Chicago clinched at least a share of the UAA title, but they have become the first team to book their place in the 2019 NCAA Tournament.  Because they hold the head-to-head tie-breaker over 2nd place NYU, Chicago has locked up the UAA automatic berth.

Well, maybe.  Does anyone really know if that's the tiebreaker?

It's tiebreaker #1 on the UAA Code of Conduct for soccer.

Regardless, UChicago made it moot with a 1-0 win vs. Carnegie Mellon to clinch outright. Two reds in the game, teams played 10v10 in second half.

[blooter442]

Before this weekend, I thought that if Brandeis went 2-0-1 for the rest of the season they would be in a good position for Pool C. At 0-2 after this weekend, that possibility seems to have gone. Perhaps what is most disappointing is that both winners came immediately after other goals – Friday, it was the Brandeis equalizer; today it was the Rochester equalizer – and that to me signifies a lack of concentration. That's not to say the effort isn't there – I have been impressed with their work rate overall this year – but you earn your (proverbial) money (or perhaps your Pool C bid) by being awake in those big moments. They have fallen asleep twice.

Emory was a .500 team, but I always felt like going there was going to be difficult. Same with Rochester in terms of a tough road game: they were 0-3 in the UAA prior to the win against Case, but now they have won three in a row. I think they are not quite at the levels of their teams last year and the year before, but I would not be surprised to see them make a run – they are consistently opportunistic and tough, and I think their experience showed through in these last couple of weeks.  I also think that Eisold  is among the best defenders in the UAA, and has improved on his already very-good first-year campaign.

Soccer can be a funny game. Brandeis outshot Rochester 23-9 today and lost 2-1, the reverse of when Brandeis won the 2015 UAA title 2-1 at Rochester despite being outshot 8-5, but that year's Brandeis team was really good at just finding a way. This year's team hasn't quite been on the same level in that front – the Babson win was impressive, no doubt, and there were a couple of other good ones, but I didn't really see a statement win where they ground out a result against a very good team. Either way, what killed them were the ties against Wheaton and WNE. Those are the games you have to win. I do think that they will build on this year's campaign – DeNight did pretty well helping carry some of the scoring burden as a freshman – and I think there is some talent elsewhere in the ranks, but they have missed the X factor and leadership since Ocel graduated. 

If they can learn from their experiences in big moments and further develop some of their young talent then I think they will improve next year.  They're certainly not far away, but have come up just a little short.

[MaturinNYC]

After the penultimate weekend, here's the updated Preseason Prognosticators Leaderboard (3 pts for each accurate placement):

CURRENT STANDINGS: 
Top 3: Chicago, NYU, Rochester
Mid 3: WashU, Emory, Brandeis   
Last 2: CWRU, CMU   

MaturinNYC:    15 PTS
Top 3:   CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3:   BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2:  CAR, EMR

Buck O.:    12 PTS
Top three:  Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three:  Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two:  CMU, NYU

Dr.Walk-On*    12 PTS
Top 3: Case, NYU, UR
Mid 3 : Brandeis, Chicago, Emory
Bottom 2: Carnegie, WashU

RollDeisRoll     9 PTS
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie

Outside of Chicago, it's still a wild and crazy ride in the UAA - everyone picked up points this weekend, and i went worst-to-first thanks mostly to my Yellowjackets picking up two huge wins. That leaves just 1 weekend left, but likely more surprises ahead.

Besides pride, three teams might still be playing for an NCAA Pool C (At Large) bid - Rochester, Emory and Brandeis; but given Brandeis's "lost weekend" and that Emory wasn't in the last Regional Rankings, both of those may have left it too late. NYU, despite a strong season in the conference, is dragged down by 6 losses and 2 ties and also wasn't regionally ranked, almost the same story at WashU. I'm sure BuckO. has the #'s crunched already and can enlighten all.

Good luck all (except when you're playing my team ;-)!

[Buck O.]

After the penultimate weekend, here's the updated Preseason Prognosticators Leaderboard (3 pts for each accurate placement):

CURRENT STANDINGS: 
Top 3: Chicago, NYU, Rochester
Mid 3: WashU, Emory, Brandeis   
Last 2: CWRU, CMU   

MaturinNYC:    15 PTS
Top 3:   CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3:   BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2:  CAR, EMR

Buck O.:    12 PTS
Top three:  Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three:  Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two:  CMU, NYU

Dr.Walk-On*    12 PTS
Top 3: Case, NYU, UR
Mid 3 : Brandeis, Chicago, Emory
Bottom 2: Carnegie, WashU

RollDeisRoll     9 PTS
Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie

Outside of Chicago, it's still a wild and crazy ride in the UAA - everyone picked up points this weekend, and i went worst-to-first thanks mostly to my Yellowjackets picking up two huge wins. That leaves just 1 weekend left, but likely more surprises ahead.

Besides pride, three teams might still be playing for an NCAA Pool C (At Large) bid - Rochester, Emory and Brandeis; but given Brandeis's "lost weekend" and that Emory wasn't in the last Regional Rankings, both of those may have left it too late. NYU, despite a strong season in the conference, is dragged down by 6 losses and 2 ties and also wasn't regionally ranked, almost the same story at WashU. I'm sure BuckO. has the #'s crunched already and can enlighten all.

Good luck all (except when you're playing my team ;-)!

I know that you're just going off the listing on the UAA site, but for all we know they're listing tied teams in alphabetical order.  WashU and Rochester are still tied, and since we've established that the first tiebreaker is H2H, which is in WashU's favor, I think WashU needs to be third while Rochester is fourth. 

That would make my predictions look pretty good.  I'd have 18 points, missing only on Case and NYU.  But I don't think they're going to look as good a week from now.  Unless WashU can take some points from their game in Chicago, they won't be able to stay in the top three.

[Buck O.]

In looking at those records, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the UAA is unlikely to get more than two tournament bids this year.

Given this weekend's results, it looks like the UAA is going to be lucky to get more than one bid this year.  Going into the final weekend, I think that Rochester, Emory and Brandeis still have a chance.  I agree that Rochester has the best opportunity of the three if they win, but that's a big if.  Rochester goes to Emory on Saturday.  Maybe I'm a little more attuned to the home/road split given that WashU is a perfect 3-0 in league play (and 6-0 overall) at home (and maybe Joe Clarke should consider scheduling a couple more home games, instead of playing six home games and ten road games), but other than Chicago (which is 3-0 in road UAA games), the rest of the league put together is 2-16-3 in road UAA games.  The only road wins were by NYU (at CMU) and by Rochester (at Case)--in other words, against the two weakest teams in the league.

With that as a backdrop,  I don't know how comfortable I'd be that Rochester will win that game.  And if Emory wins ... well, let's assume that all of the home teams (Emory, Brandeis, Chicago, Case) win on Saturday.  Here are your UAA final standings in that scenario.

Chicago 7-0 (21 pts)
Emory 3-2-2 (11 pts)
Brandeis 3-3-1 (10 pts)
NYU 3-3-1 (10 pts)
WashU 3-4 (9 pts)
Rochester 3-4 (9 pts)
CMU 2-5 (6 pts)
Case 1-4-2 (5 pts)

So Emory would finish second in the league.  I know league standings aren't supposed to be part of the consideration, and I know that Emory isn't currently regionally ranked, and I know that teams are supposed to be selected without regard to meeting a particular quota for a given league.  Nevertheless, it's the third strongest conference in the country this year, even in a down year, and it's supplied four of the eight Final Four teams in the last two NCAA tournaments, not to mention 7 of the 16 Elite Eight teams in those tournaments, so it would be strange to see just UAA team in the tournament.  In other words, if they win on Sat., Emory might have a shot.

Or Brandeis might have a shot.  It would help them if Emory and Rochester were to tie, as that would eliminate any chance that Emory has while also not letting Rochester finish second in the league.

[Flying Weasel]

In looking at those records, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the UAA is unlikely to get more than two tournament bids this year.

Given this weekend's results, it looks like the UAA is going to be lucky to get more than one bid this year.  Going into the final weekend, I think that Rochester, Emory and Brandeis still have a chance.  I agree that Rochester has the best opportunity of the three if they win, but that's a big if.  Rochester goes to Emory on Saturday.  Maybe I'm a little more attuned to the home/road split given that WashU is a perfect 3-0 in league play (and 6-0 overall) at home (and maybe Joe Clarke should consider scheduling a couple more home games, instead of playing six home games and ten road games), but other than Chicago (which is 3-0 in road UAA games), the rest of the league put together is 2-16-3 in road UAA games.  The only road wins were by NYU (at CMU) and by Rochester (at Case)--in other words, against the two weakest teams in the league.

With that as a backdrop,  I don't know how comfortable I'd be that Rochester will win that game.  And if Emory wins ... well, let's assume that all of the home teams (Emory, Brandeis, Chicago, Case) win on Saturday.  Here are your UAA final standings in that scenario.

Chicago 7-0 (21 pts)
Emory 3-2-2 (11 pts)
Brandeis 3-3-1 (10 pts)
NYU 3-3-1 (10 pts)
WashU 3-4 (9 pts)
Rochester 3-4 (9 pts)
CMU 2-5 (6 pts)
Case 1-4-2 (5 pts)

So Emory would finish second in the league.  I know league standings aren't supposed to be part of the consideration, and I know that Emory isn't currently regionally ranked, and I know that teams are supposed to be selected without regard to meeting a particular quota for a given league.  Nevertheless, it's the third strongest conference in the country this year, even in a down year, and it's supplied four of the eight Final Four teams in the last two NCAA tournaments, not to mention 7 of the 16 Elite Eight teams in those tournaments, so it would be strange to see just UAA team in the tournament.  In other words, if they win on Sat., Emory might have a shot.

Or Brandeis might have a shot.  It would help them if Emory and Rochester were to tie, as that would eliminate any chance that Emory has while also not letting Rochester finish second in the league.

Conference WLT record, position in conference standings, and conference tournament finish are not included the primary or secondary selection criteria and I have no reason to suspect the selection committee is "unofficially" taking such things into consideration.  In fact, evidence suggests they correctly do not consider conference data.  In each of the last two years that the Liberty League had just a 4-team tournament, a non-tournament team was selected for the NCAA tournament while the three teams that made the playoffs but did not win the AQ were left home. In 2015, 7th place RPI (12-4-3 / 3-3-2) got an at-large berth while #2 seed Hobart (13-3-2 / 5-1-2), #3 seed Skidmore (11-6-1 / 5-3-0) and #4 seed Union (10-4-4 / 3-2-3) did not.  In 2016, the NCAA committee selected 5th place St. Lawrence (11-4-1 / 4-4-0) while #1 seed Hobart (9-5-4 / 6-1-1), #3 seed RPI (8-7-4 / 5-2-1), and #4 seed (Skidmore (7-7-4 / 4-2-2) were left out.  In the UAA in 2016, 6th place WashU (10-4-2 / 2-3-2) and 7th place Rochester (9-4-3 / 2-3-2) were given at-large berths while 5th place NYU (9-7-2 / 3-4-0) was passed over.

I feel very confident saying that one team's chances are not helped or hurt by the how other teams' results affect the conference standings.  Other teams' results will affect a team's chances because of how it impacts their SoS and Results vs. Ranked, but not because of the impact on conference standings.

[Gregory Sager]

So Emory would finish second in the league.  I know league standings aren't supposed to be part of the consideration, and I know that Emory isn't currently regionally ranked, and I know that teams are supposed to be selected without regard to meeting a particular quota for a given league.  Nevertheless, it's the third strongest conference in the country this year, even in a down year, and it's supplied four of the eight Final Four teams in the last two NCAA tournaments, not to mention 7 of the 16 Elite Eight teams in those tournaments, so it would be strange to see just UAA team in the tournament.  In other words, if they win on Sat., Emory might have a shot.

None of the UAA's virtues that you mentioned are among the stated criteria. From page 23 of the NCAA Pre-Championships Manual:

Section 2•4 Selection Criteria
PRIMARY CRITERIA
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
● Division III head-to-head competition;
● Results versus common Division III opponents;
● Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the final ranking and the ranking preceding the final ranking.
Conference postseason contests are included; and
● Division III strength of schedule;
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP);
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).
See Appendix D on page 47 for an explanation of the OWP and OOWP calculation.
Note: Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria.
Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selections.

SECONDARY CRITERIA
If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria
listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against all other opponents,
including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).
● Non-Division III won-lost percentage;
● Results versus common non-Division III opponents;
● Division III non-conference strength of schedule.
Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's won-lost percentage during the last 25% of the season is applicable (i.e.,
end of season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval from the championships committee.
Additionally, input is provided by regional advisory committees for consideration by the soccer committee. In order to be
considered for selection for Pools B or C, an institution must play at least 70% of its competition against Division III in-region
opponents. Coaches' polls and/or any other outside polls or rankings are not used as a criterion by the soccer committee
for selection purposes.

This Wednesday's NCAA weekly regional rankings will tell you whether or not Emory has a legit shot at a Pool C.

[Gregory Sager]

... aaaand I see that Flying Weasel has just beaten me to the punch, more or less.

[Buck O.]

In looking at those records, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the UAA is unlikely to get more than two tournament bids this year.

Given this weekend's results, it looks like the UAA is going to be lucky to get more than one bid this year.  Going into the final weekend, I think that Rochester, Emory and Brandeis still have a chance.  I agree that Rochester has the best opportunity of the three if they win, but that's a big if.  Rochester goes to Emory on Saturday.  Maybe I'm a little more attuned to the home/road split given that WashU is a perfect 3-0 in league play (and 6-0 overall) at home (and maybe Joe Clarke should consider scheduling a couple more home games, instead of playing six home games and ten road games), but other than Chicago (which is 3-0 in road UAA games), the rest of the league put together is 2-16-3 in road UAA games.  The only road wins were by NYU (at CMU) and by Rochester (at Case)--in other words, against the two weakest teams in the league.

With that as a backdrop,  I don't know how comfortable I'd be that Rochester will win that game.  And if Emory wins ... well, let's assume that all of the home teams (Emory, Brandeis, Chicago, Case) win on Saturday.  Here are your UAA final standings in that scenario.

Chicago 7-0 (21 pts)
Emory 3-2-2 (11 pts)
Brandeis 3-3-1 (10 pts)
NYU 3-3-1 (10 pts)
WashU 3-4 (9 pts)
Rochester 3-4 (9 pts)
CMU 2-5 (6 pts)
Case 1-4-2 (5 pts)

So Emory would finish second in the league. I know league standings aren't supposed to be part of the consideration, and I know that Emory isn't currently regionally ranked, and I know that teams are supposed to be selected without regard to meeting a particular quota for a given league. Nevertheless, it's the third strongest conference in the country this year, even in a down year, and it's supplied four of the eight Final Four teams in the last two NCAA tournaments, not to mention 7 of the 16 Elite Eight teams in those tournaments, so it would be strange to see just one UAA team in the tournament.  In other words, if they win on Sat., Emory might have a shot.

Or Brandeis might have a shot.  It would help them if Emory and Rochester were to tie, as that would eliminate any chance that Emory has while also not letting Rochester finish second in the league.

Conference WLT record, position in conference standings, and conference tournament finish are not included the primary or secondary selection criteria and I have no reason to suspect the selection committee is "unofficially" taking such things into consideration.  In fact, evidence suggests they correctly do not consider conference data.  In each of the last two years that the Liberty League had just a 4-team tournament, a non-tournament team was selected for the NCAA tournament while the three teams that made the playoffs but did not win the AQ were left home. In 2015, 7th place RPI (12-4-3 / 3-3-2) got an at-large berth while #2 seed Hobart (13-3-2 / 5-1-2), #3 seed Skidmore (11-6-1 / 5-3-0) and #4 seed Union (10-4-4 / 3-2-3) did not.  In 2016, the NCAA committee selected 5th place St. Lawrence (11-4-1 / 4-4-0) while #1 seed Hobart (9-5-4 / 6-1-1), #3 seed RPI (8-7-4 / 5-2-1), and #4 seed (Skidmore (7-7-4 / 4-2-2) were left out.  In the UAA in 2016, 6th place WashU (10-4-2 / 2-3-2) and 7th place Rochester (9-4-3 / 2-3-2) were given at-large berths while 5th place NYU (9-7-2 / 3-4-0) was passed over.

I know that.  (See the part of my post that I put in boldface.)  Yet let me suggest that the scenarios you described are not quite the same situation that I was talking about. 

Let's suppose that Emory beats Rochester, but that Rochester had done a little better in its non-conference schedule than it actually did, and that as a result, Rochester's overall resume seemed stronger.  That's the situation that you've addressed, and you've demonstrated is that in such situations, the committee would opt for Rochester instead of Emory, and you've provided examples to back it up.  And I agree, both that they would do so, and that they should do so.

But in this situation, I think that if Emory beats Rochester, Emory will have a better case for inclusion than Rochester will.   So it's not a case of taking a less qualified team that happened to finish higher in the league standings.  Instead, I was wondering whether finishing second in one of the strongest leagues in the country might prompt a re-evaluation of their record that would improve their chances (particularly because it isn't an artifact of an unbalanced schedule, which sometimes produces these results).

Having said that, at the end of the day, I suspect that Emory won't get in even if they beat Rochester.

[Flying Weasel]

Didn't mean to suggest you didn't know that conference data wasn't in the selection criteria, just wanted to establish that for any other readers and to provide context for the rest of my comments.  However, you reply seems to reinforce the perception that you think that conference standing should and could effect how they are evaluated:

Instead, I was wondering whether finishing second in one of the strongest leagues in the country might prompt a re-evaluation of their record that would improve their chances (particularly because it isn't an artifact of an unbalanced schedule, which sometimes produces these results).

Nothing (such as improved conference standing) is required to prompt a re-evaluation. Their record is being re-evaluated each week, regardless, when the new regional rankings are being developed. If that re-evaluation indicates they are one of the top 8 teams in the South Atlantic, they will be ranked that week.  Emory has a very good SOS, but their results vs. ranked teams was 0-4-0 in last weeks evaluation to go along with a mediocre WLT record.  Their win over Brandeis will improve their RvR to 1-4-0 (still not good for at-large selection) and their record is now 9-5-3.  Of the team's ranked last week, Rowan is the most vulnerable due to also having so many blemishes, but Rowan has as good or slightly better SOS, and their RvR at 2-1-2 (with the loss to Ramapo being added) is still much better than Emory's 1-4-0. So it is difficult to see Emory overtaking any team ranked last week.  And looking ahead to them potentially beating Rochester . . ., my first impression is that the best they could hope for is grabbing the last spot in the final rankings which would not seem near enough to get selected.  But we shall see.

[MaturinNYC]

I know that you're just going off the listing on the UAA site, but for all we know they're listing tied teams in alphabetical order.  WashU and Rochester are still tied, and since we've established that the first tiebreaker is H2H, which is in WashU's favor, I think WashU needs to be third while Rochester is fourth. 

I hear you, but i did spell out the 'rules of the contest' (and also tagged you) back at the start:
"Since this is all for fun, and since Buck O. can't be the only guy here doing number-crunching research, I awarded 3 points for each accurate prediction based on current standings (i.e. based soley on win % and as reported on the UAASports.info site)– "     

So for consistency sake i think i have to keep the latest leaderboard as is - but i am happy to award you some loud clapping and the title of "H2H Top of the Leaderboard" for UAA Game Week #6!

[MaturinNYC]

Now that the 3rd Regional Rankings are out, the picture is clearer for UAA teams making the 2019 NCAA Tournament: 

• Chicago - 2nd in the Central, in as the UAA Champ regardless of their result vs. WashU
• Rochester - 3rd in the East, a win tomorrow at Emory should punch their ticket, a draw or loss means nervy times on Monday
• Brandeis - 8th in New England, a win vs. NYU along with some help from others means they still have real hope in Boston

No other UAA teams made the 3rd weekly rankings, which usually means their seasons end this weekend. As will the prediction game, so here's my final go at that for the 2019 UAA season:

- Rochester 2 @ Emory 1:   The extra gear of tourney motivation, plus a timely cold spell in Atlanta, means the Yellowjackets go home winners.
- WashU 0 @ Chicago 2:     I think Chicago gets a 7th clean sheet of the UAA campaign, and finishes out the league play unblemished.
- NYU 1 @ Brandeis 2:       Brandeis rights their game just in time and makes a strong case for a tournament ticket.
- Carnegie 0 @ Case 1:        Case uses the home field advantage to avoid a complete UAA shutout and lay some groundwork for next year.