2019 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MAF Top 25
1. Tufts
2. Calvin
3. Amherst
4. Kenyon
5. F&M
6. Loras
7. Middlebury
8. Hardin Simmons
9. Hopkins
10. Oneonta St
11. John Carroll
12. RPI
13. Ithaca
14. W&L
15. Hobart
16. PSU Behrend
17. Conn College
18. Rochester
19. Messiah
20. Mary Wash
21. Cortland St
22. UW-Whitewater
23. Roanoke
24. Rowan
25. W. New England
RV: Western Conn, Eastern Conn, St. Joe's (Me), Bowdoin, Mass Boston, MIT, Wesleyan, Buff St, Union, Gettysburg, Catholic, Stevens, Swarthmore, Muhlenberg, Stockton, Salisbury, Camden, TCNJ, Ramapo, Centre, CNU, Mount Union, ONU, Capital, Chicago, North Park, Adrian, Kalamazoo, Wheaton, Central, Simpson, Carleton, Gustavus Adolphus, Luther, Dubuque, Tx Dallas, Southwestern, CMS

[Buck O.]

MAF Top 25
1. Tufts
2. Calvin
3. Amherst
4. Kenyon
5. F&M
6. Loras
7. Middlebury
8. Hardin Simmons
9. Hopkins
10. Oneonta St
11. John Carroll
12. RPI
13. Ithaca
14. W&L
15. Hobart
16. PSU Behrend
17. Conn College
18. Rochester
19. Messiah
20. Mary Wash
21. Cortland St
22. UW-Whitewater
23. Roanoke
24. Rowan
25. W. New England
RV: Western Conn, Eastern Conn, St. Joe's (Me), Bowdoin, Mass Boston, MIT, Wesleyan, Buff St, Union, Gettysburg, Catholic, Stevens, Swarthmore, Muhlenberg, Stockton, Salisbury, Camden, TCNJ, Ramapo, Centre, CNU, Mount Union, ONU, Capital, Chicago, North Park, Adrian, Kalamazoo, Wheaton, Central, Simpson, Carleton, Gustavus Adolphus, Luther, Dubuque, Tx Dallas, Southwestern, CMS

I was wondering what you see in WNEC.  All seven of their wins are against teams that aren't in Massey's top 250.  They have a close loss to Babson and a tie against Brandeis, which might be good results for a team ranked in the 100s but not for a #25.

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Power Rankings
1. Tufts
2. Amherst
3. Calvin
4. Kenyon
5. F&M
6. Oneonta St
7. Hopkins
8. Chicago
9. Messiah
10. John Carroll
-------------------------
11. Hobart
12. Ithaca
13. Loras
14. Rochester
15. W&L
16. Middlebury
17. Cortland St
18. Rowan
19. Conn College
20. Mary Wash
--------------------------
21. Hardin-Simmons
22. PSU Behrend
23. Catholic
24. St. Joe's (Me)
T25. RPI/Roanoke/Eastern Conn

NE: 6 teams
East 6 teams
MA: 4 teams
SA: 4 teams
GL: 3 teams
Cent: 2 teams
North: 1 team
West: 1 team
27 total with 3 coming in at T25

I view it in 3 tiers. The first tier are the title contenders, the second tier the competitors, and the third tier is everchanging and can make a run at it but unlikely.

[discnerd]

Discnerd's Top 25

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Mary Washington	7.464111	CAC
2	Amherst	7.172172	NESCAC
3	Tufts	6.804878	NESCAC
4	Washington and Lee	6.46249	ODAC
5	Johns Hopkins	6.303254	CC
6	Roanoke	6.280562	ODAC
7	Covenant	5.790168	USAC
8	Calvin	4.774913	MIAA
9	Christopher Newport	4.746544	CAC
10	Hardin-Simmons	4.704277	ASC
11	Catholic	4.607719	LAND
12	Loras	4.53231	ARC
13	Connecticut College	4.529007	NESCAC
14	Eastern Connecticut	4.34873	LEC
15	Gustavus Adolphus	4.082904	MIAC
16	Middlebury	4.080217	NESCAC
17	Gettysburg	4.028624	CC
18	Franklin and Marshall	4.027184	CC
19	Messiah	3.986144	MACC
20	Oglethorpe	3.818965	SAA
21	Oneonta State	3.630584	SUNYAC
22	Rutgers-Camden	3.443313	NJAC
23	Hobart	3.373135	LL
24	Ithaca	3.359468	LL
25	RPI	3.355243	LL

Rating is found by having a large number of voters voting for their first place team.  Have each voter look at the outcome of a randomly chosen game their team has played.  They switch to the other team with a probability related to the margin of victory of the game.  Do that several thousand times for all voters and the distribution of voters settles to a steady state.  Rating is normalized so that each team starts with one voter.


Full rankings are linked to from the post that is linked in the title.

[Ejay]

Looks like Christopher Newport is officially back.  Big 2-0 win over #11 UMW to push them to 6-1-3 on the year - which really should be 7-0-2 if not for some horrible officiating in Texas.

[rudy]

Shooter's Power Rankings
1. Tufts
2. Amherst
3. Calvin
4. Kenyon
5. F&M
6. Oneonta St
7. Hopkins
8. Chicago
9. Messiah
10. John Carroll
-------------------------
11. Hobart
12. Ithaca
13. Loras
14. Rochester
15. W&L
16. Middlebury
17. Cortland St
18. Rowan
19. Conn College
20. Mary Wash
--------------------------
21. Hardin-Simmons
22. PSU Behrend
23. Catholic
24. St. Joe's (Me)
T25. RPI/Roanoke/Eastern Conn

NE: 6 teams
East 6 teams
MA: 4 teams
SA: 4 teams
GL: 3 teams
Cent: 2 teams
North: 1 team
West: 1 team
27 total with 3 coming in at T25

I view it in 3 tiers. The first tier are the title contenders, the second tier the competitors, and the third tier is everchanging and can make a run at it but unlikely.

Based on the results since 2004 you are a pretty safe bet if you include Messiah and top of NESCAC in the top tier. Only in 2011 did a team outside that group win the national championship. Calvin and Chicago have  been knocking on the door so maybe this is their year.  But I wouldn't be surprised if recent history repeats itself. Should be an  entertaining tournament.

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Power Rankings
1. Tufts
2. Amherst
3. Calvin
4. Kenyon
5. F&M
6. Oneonta St
7. Hopkins
8. Chicago
9. Messiah
10. John Carroll
-------------------------
11. Hobart
12. Ithaca
13. Loras
14. Rochester
15. W&L
16. Middlebury
17. Cortland St
18. Rowan
19. Conn College
20. Mary Wash
--------------------------
21. Hardin-Simmons
22. PSU Behrend
23. Catholic
24. St. Joe's (Me)
T25. RPI/Roanoke/Eastern Conn

NE: 6 teams
East 6 teams
MA: 4 teams
SA: 4 teams
GL: 3 teams
Cent: 2 teams
North: 1 team
West: 1 team
27 total with 3 coming in at T25

I view it in 3 tiers. The first tier are the title contenders, the second tier the competitors, and the third tier is everchanging and can make a run at it but unlikely.

Shooter's Power Rankings 10/7
1. Tufts
2. Amherst
3. Calvin
4. Kenyon
5. F&M
6. Oneonta St
7. Hopkins
8. Chicago
9. Messiah
10. Ithaca
-------------------------
11. RPI
12. W&L
13. John Carroll
14. PSU Behrend
15. Roanoke
16. Middlebury
17. Rochester
18. Catholic
19. Conn College
20. Loras
--------------------------
21. Hardin-Simmons
22. Hobart
23. Cortland
24. St. Joe's (Me)
T25. Rowan/Mary Wash

NE: 5 teams
East 6 teams
MA: 4 teams
SA: 4 teams
GL: 3 teams
Cent: 2 teams
North: 1 team
West: 1 team
26 total with 2 coming in at T25

[discnerd]

Discnerd's top 25 (No blog post yet)

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Amherst	8.36372	NESCAC
2	Johns Hopkins	6.43538	CC
3	Tufts	5.77251	NESCAC
4	Mary Washington	5.70079	CAC
5	Calvin	5.56714	MIAA
6	Christopher Newport	5.54331	CAC
7	Washington and Lee	5.41844	ODAC
8	Covenant	5.21568	USAC
9	Roanoke	5.19344	ODAC
10	Franklin and Marshall	4.37823	CC
11	Connecticut College	4.26196	NESCAC
12	Middlebury	4.2084	NESCAC
13	Oneonta State	3.98324	SUNYAC
14	Catholic	3.88338	LAND
15	Gettysburg	3.87416	CC
16	Chicago	3.67177	UAA
17	Ithaca	3.64101	LL
18	Hardin-Simmons	3.58038	ASC
19	Rowan	3.53541	NJAC
20	Oglethorpe	3.5039	SAA
21	Bates	3.46997	NESCAC
22	RPI	3.46353	LL
23	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	3.31492	SCIAC
24	Messiah	3.30124	MACC
25	Ohio Wesleyan	3.18641	NCAC

[Mr.Right]

Upset special for tonight....Keene State travels to Troy,NY and gives RPI its 2nd loss of the season...

[Mr.Right]

Upset Special in games I have absolutely no insight on.........St.Mary's(MD) will travel to Christopher Newport and defeat the Captains for the first time in over a decade...

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Upset special for tonight....Keene State travels to Troy,NY and gives RPI its 2nd loss of the season...

RPI was up 3-0 in the first 25min. Think this game and the CNU game both ended 3-1. RPI seems to be the real deal this season.

[Mr.Right]

Upset special for tonight....Keene State travels to Troy,NY and gives RPI its 2nd loss of the season...

RPI was up 3-0 in the first 25min. Think this game and the CNU game both ended 3-1. RPI seems to be the real deal this season.

LOL....RPI is def for real I just thought the opposite would happen but Keene St laid an egg....12th minute PK prob did not help

St.Mary's had CNU 1-1 into the 66th minute and then collapsed...

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Upset special for tonight....Keene State travels to Troy,NY and gives RPI its 2nd loss of the season...

RPI was up 3-0 in the first 25min. Think this game and the CNU game both ended 3-1. RPI seems to be the real deal this season.

LOL....RPI is def for real I just thought the opposite would happen but Keene St laid an egg....12th minute PK prob did not help

St.Mary's had CNU 1-1 into the 66th minute and then collapsed...

It was worth a shot! 

[Mr.Right]

Cortland St has looked to have hit a bit of a wall going in to today's match v Oneonta. They are sitting at  6-3-2 (2-1-1) 4th Place in SUNYAC with no Home games remaining. They play Oneonta today and then travel up to a recently improved Plattsburgh side who just swiped 6pts on the road last weekend in league play at Geneseo  and at Brockport giving up only 1 Goal all weekend.  Cortland has some decent Wins on their resume but right now they need to find results in their own league or are in real danger of missing the VERY important SUNYAC Top 2 seeds which get a free pass into Conference Semi's.

Oneonta has Won 6 straight and besides a hiccup at RPI they would be clean. Not as impressed with Oneonta's schedule as Byrne looks to have added an xtra cupcake or 3.

[discnerd]

Discnerd's top 25

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Amherst	NESCAC	7.431	0.184
2	0	Calvin	MIAA	5.826	-1.143
3	1	Christopher Newport	CAC	5.752	-0.958
4	-1	Johns Hopkins	CC	5.614	-1.241
5	0	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.324	-1.163
6	1	Roanoke	ODAC	5.285	0.267
7	-1	Mary Washington	CAC	5.076	-0.614
8	0	Franklin and Marshall	CC	4.878	0.385
9	0	Connecticut College	NESCAC	4.651	0.216
10	18	Oneonta State	SUNYAC	4.466	1.246
11	6	Oglethorpe	SAA	4.163	0.302
12	-1	Chicago	UAA	3.95	-0.232
13	1	Covenant	USAC	3.9	-0.206
14	1	Messiah	MACC	3.874	-0.101
15	8	Tufts	NESCAC	3.768	0.2
16	-3	Catholic	LAND	3.633	-0.49
17	1	Rowan	NJAC	3.531	-0.294
18	-6	Gettysburg	CC	3.496	-0.66
19	21	Buffalo State	SUNYAC	3.43	0.81
20	1	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	3.395	-0.28
21	-11	Middlebury	NESCAC	3.39	-0.866
22	8	RPI	LL	3.354	0.229
23	-3	Gustavus Adolphus	MIAC	3.24	-0.56
24	-8	Ithaca	LL	3.229	-0.732
25	2	Centre	SAA	3.142	-0.271