2019 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

YoungBuck · October 16, 2019, 06:40:30 PM

(Maybe Meaningful) Stat of the Day:

Of the top 16 teams on Massey Ratings, only #12 Tufts and #16 RPI have a multiple goal loss to a team outside of the top 11. Here is the full list of multiple goal defeats from the top 16:

#16 RPI - #45 Dickinson (0-3)
#14 Oglethorpe - #7 Roanoke (0-2)
#12 Tufts - #51 Babson (0-2)
#9 Mary Wash - #11 Christopher Newport (0-2)
#2 W&L - #6 Hopkins (2-5)

In D3 soccer, where a good team can fall victim to an unlucky 1 goal defeat for any of a number of reasons (amateur referees, grass fields, wind, exam season, bus seats, traffic), multiple goal victories/defeats can give more value to a win/loss. This should bode well for a competitive second and third weekend of the NCAA Tournament, as well as indicating strong potential for more movement at the top before the month is over.

Mid-Atlantic Fan · October 17, 2019, 09:04:40 AM

Quote from: YoungBuck on October 16, 2019, 06:40:30 PM
(Maybe Meaningful) Stat of the Day:

Of the top 16 teams on Massey Ratings, only #12 Tufts and #16 RPI have a multiple goal loss to a team outside of the top 11. Here is the full list of multiple goal defeats from the top 16:

#16 RPI - #45 Dickinson (0-3)
#14 Oglethorpe - #7 Roanoke (0-2)
#12 Tufts - #51 Babson (0-2)
#9 Mary Wash - #11 Christopher Newport (0-2)
#2 W&L - #6 Hopkins (2-5)

In D3 soccer, where a good team can fall victim to an unlucky 1 goal defeat for any of a number of reasons (amateur referees, grass fields, wind, exam season, bus seats, traffic), multiple goal victories/defeats can give more value to a win/loss. This should bode well for a competitive second and third weekend of the NCAA Tournament, as well as indicating strong potential for more movement at the top before the month is over.

What's going on with Tufts lately?

gustiefan04 · October 21, 2019, 12:44:27 PM

When are the first NCAA Regional Rankings set to be released?

Hopkins92 · October 21, 2019, 01:25:52 PM

Quote from: gustiefan04 on October 21, 2019, 12:44:27 PM
When are the first NCAA Regional Rankings set to be released?

Pretty sure it's this Wednesday.

discnerd · October 22, 2019, 09:53:09 PM

discnerd's top 25

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Amherst	NESCAC	6.745	-0.686
2	1	Christopher Newport	CAC	6.048	0.296
3	1	Johns Hopkins	CC	5.951	0.337
4	-2	Calvin	MIAA	5.697	-0.13
5	2	Mary Washington	CAC	5.618	0.542
6	-1	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.208	-0.115
7	1	Franklin and Marshall	CC	4.539	-0.338
8	7	Tufts	NESCAC	4.236	0.469
9	1	Oneonta State	SUNYAC	4.105	-0.361
10	4	Messiah	MACC	4.051	0.177
11	0	Oglethorpe	SAA	3.965	-0.197
12	1	Covenant	USAC	3.887	-0.013
13	5	Gettysburg	CC	3.823	0.327
14	8	RPI	LL	3.783	0.429
15	-3	Chicago	UAA	3.724	-0.226
16	-10	Roanoke	ODAC	3.702	-1.584
17	-8	Connecticut College	NESCAC	3.278	-1.373
18	1	Buffalo State	SUNYAC	3.253	-0.176
19	6	Centre	SAA	3.174	0.032
20	-4	Catholic	LAND	3.172	-0.46
21	5	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	3.163	0.073
22	12	Montclair State	NJAC	3.135	0.325
23	6	Haverford	CC	3.124	0.16
24	0	Ithaca	LL	3.111	-0.118
25	-4	Middlebury	NESCAC	3.069	-0.321

Christan Shirk · October 23, 2019, 04:17:52 PM

NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Amherst	11-0-2	0.614	--	11-0-2	--
2.	Tufts	9-2-2	0.605	--	9-2-2	--
3.	Middlebury	7-1-5	0.602	--	7-1-5	--
4.	Connecticut College	7-3-2	0.616	--	7-3-2	--
5.	Brandeis	8-3-4	0.601	--	8-3-4	--
6.	WPI	8-2-4	0.576	--	8-2-4	--
7.	Babson	9-4-2	0.553	--	9-4-2	--
8.	Keene State	10-5-0	0.572	--	10-5-0	--
9.	Williams	5-3-4	0.585	--	5-3-4	--
10.	Bates	8-4-1	0.556	--	8-4-1	--
11.	Hamilton	6-5-2	0.639	--	6-5-2	--
12.	MIT	7-2-5	0.542	--	7-2-5	--

EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	RPI	13-1-1	0.559	--	13-1-1	--
2.	Oneonta State	13-2-0	0.577	--	13-2-0	--
3.	Ithaca	11-2-2	0.560	--	11-2-2	--
4.	Hobart	10-4-1	0.591	--	10-4-1	--
5.	Skidmore	6-4-4	0.576	--	6-4-4	--
6.	Plattsburgh State	8-6-0	0.573	--	8-6-0	--
7.	Cortland State	7-5-2	0.579	--	7-5-2	--
8.	Vassar	7-5-1	0.575	--	7-6-1	--

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Johns Hopkins	10-2-1	0.658	--	10-2-1	--
2.	Franklin and Marshall	12-2-0	0.612	--	12-2-0	--
3.	Messiah	11-2-2	0.598	--	11-2-2	--
4.	Swarthmore	9-2-3	0.600	--	9-2-3	--
5.	Haverford	7-3-3	0.629	--	7-3-3	--
6.	Gettysburg	8-4-1	0.633	--	8-4-1	--
7.	Elizabethtown	9-4-1	0.561	--	9-4-1	--
8.	Muhlenberg	8-4-2	0.567	--	8-4-2	--
9.	Catholic	13-2-1	0.521	--	13-2-1	--
10.	Lycoming	8-6-0	0.620	--	8-6-0	--

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Christopher Newport	9-2-3	0.636	--	9-2-3	--
2.	Mary Washington	10-3-2	0.637	--	10-3-2	--
3.	Washington and Lee	10-2-2	0.603	--	10-2-2	--
4.	Roanoke	11-1-2	0.550	--	12-1-2	--
5.	Oglethorpe	11-3-0	0.558	--	11-3-0	--
6.	Centre	12-3-1	0.572	--	12-3-1	--
7.	Rowan	8-3-3	0.605	--	8-3-3	--
8.	TCNJ	10-2-3	0.568	--	10-2-3	--

Christan Shirk · October 23, 2019, 04:18:51 PM

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	John Carroll	11-2-2	0.622	--	11-2-2	--
2.	Kenyon	9-1-2	0.594	--	11-1-2	--
3.	Ohio Wesleyan	9-3-3	0.617	--	9-3-3	--
4.	Ohio Northern	10-4-1	0.613	--	11-4-1	--
5.	Mount Union	8-2-3	0.574	--	8-2-3	--
6.	Otterbein	9-5-0	0.565	--	9-5-0	--
7.	Hanover	6-4-1	0.562	--	7-5-1	--
8.	Capital	6-4-3	0.556	--	6-4-3	--

CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Calvin	14-1-0	0.597	--	15-1-0	--
2.	Chicago	8-1-4	0.666	--	8-1-4	--
3.	North Park	10-4-0	0.601	--	10-4-0	--
4.	Kalamazoo	7-2-2	0.586	--	8-2-2	--
5.	Wheaton (Ill.)	9-4-2	0.596	--	9-4-2	--
6.	Hope	10-5-0	0.587	--	10-5-0	--
7.	North Central (Ill.)	9-4-1	0.576	--	9-4-1	--

NORTH REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Luther	10-3-1	0.613	--	11-3-1	--
2.	Central	11-2-2	0.577	--	11-2-2	--
3.	Loras	12-4-1	0.585	--	12-4-1	--
4.	St. Thomas	9-3-3	0.592	--	9-3-3	--
5.	Gustavus Adolphus	12-3-0	0.546	--	12-3-0	--
6.	St. Norbert	11-4-2	0.567	--	11-4-2	--
7.	Knox	11-3-2	0.540	--	11-3-2	--

WEST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 23, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Trinity (Texas)	8-2-2	0.618	--	8-3-2	--
2.	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	10-3-1	0.561	--	10-3-1	--
3.	Colorado College	7-5-0	0.586	--	10-5-0	--
4.	Whitman	8-4-0	0.529	--	10-5-0	--
5.	UC Santa Cruz	3-2-2	0.566	--	6-6-2	--
6.	Hardin-Simmons	11-2-0	0.485	--	13-2-0	--

Dubuquer · October 23, 2019, 10:50:26 PM

Loras goes down 4-0 to Dubuque in the first 25 minutes and comes back to win 5-4 in OT. That was one epic crosstown rivalry game that will be talked about for a while.

Gregory Sager · October 23, 2019, 11:35:45 PM

Chicago kissed its sister for the fifth time this season, as the Maroons drew 1-1 with Carthage down on the South Side.

YoungBuck · October 24, 2019, 02:52:56 PM

Meaningless Stat of the Day:

The Centennial Conference is currently having a season for the ages. As of 10/24, 7 teams are ranked inside the top 50 on Massey:

#3 Hopkins, #4 F&M, #21 Gettysburg, #22 Swarthmore, #29 Haverford, #41 Muhlenberg, #45 Dickinson.

Since 2010, only 6 times has a conference finished the season with 7 or more teams inside the Massey top 50. Of those 6 conferences, 3 produced the national champion, and 5 produced a final 4 participant:

NESCAC 2018 - 8 (Tufts - Champion)
UAA 2018 - 7 (Chicago - Final 4)
NESCAC 2016 - 8 (Tufts - Champion)
NESCAC 2015 - 7 (Amherst - Champion)
NESCAC 2013 - 7 (Williams - Final 4)
NESCAC 2011 - 7 (Amherst - Sweet 16)

NESCAC currently has 5 teams inside the top 50, with 3 (#52 Bates, #54 Bowdoin, #55 Hamilton) just outside. Can the Centennial leverage its depth at the top this year into its first ever national championship? Or will it be business as usual for the NESCAC?

Hopkins92 · October 24, 2019, 03:50:22 PM

You need to re-brand, YoungBuck. These are pretty consistently not "meaningless."

Buck O. · October 24, 2019, 07:42:50 PM

Quote from: YoungBuck on October 24, 2019, 02:52:56 PM
Meaningless Stat of the Day:

The Centennial Conference is currently having a season for the ages. As of 10/24, 7 teams are ranked inside the top 50 on Massey:

#3 Hopkins, #4 F&M, #21 Gettysburg, #22 Swarthmore, #29 Haverford, #41 Muhlenberg, #45 Dickinson.

Since 2010, only 6 times has a conference finished the season with 7 or more teams inside the Massey top 50. Of those 6 conferences, 3 produced the national champion, and 5 produced a final 4 participant:

NESCAC 2018 - 8 (Tufts - Champion)
UAA 2018 - 7 (Chicago - Final 4)
NESCAC 2016 - 8 (Tufts - Champion)
NESCAC 2015 - 7 (Amherst - Champion)
NESCAC 2013 - 7 (Williams - Final 4)
NESCAC 2011 - 7 (Amherst - Sweet 16)

NESCAC currently has 5 teams inside the top 50, with 3 (#52 Bates, #54 Bowdoin, #55 Hamilton) just outside. Can the Centennial leverage its depth at the top this year into its first ever national championship? Or will it be business as usual for the NESCAC?

I'd note that the UAA accomplished that feat with just eight members, compared to 10 for the Centennial and 11 for the NESCAC.

But you're right. The Centennial has broken the UAA-NESCAC hegemony, as they're quite clearly better this year than the UAA (which could actually be a one-bid league this year if Brandeis stumbles down the stretch and none of the other teams goes on a hot streak), and Massey currently rates them just a smidge ahead of the NESCAC.

Also, nice handle.

Mid-Atlantic Fan · October 25, 2019, 10:43:55 AM

MAF Top 25
1. Amherst
2. Calvin
3. Tufts
4. Kenyon
5. JHU
6. RPI
7. Messiah
8. Oneonta St
9. F&M
10. John Carroll
11. Chicago
12. W&L
13. Ithaca
14. Middlebury
15. Hobart
16. Trinity (Tx)
17. Conn College
18. Roanoke
19. Ohio Wesleyan
20. CNU
21. Luther
22. Central
23. Mary Wash
24. Loras
25. PSU Behrend
RV: Babson, Brandeis, St. Joe's (Me), Swarthmore, Gettysburg, Catholic, Ogelthorpe, Centre, ONU, Mount Union, North Park, Kalamazoo, St. Thomas, Gustavus Adolphus, CMS, Hardin-Simmons

YoungBuck · October 25, 2019, 12:11:22 PM

Re: Zinn's Contenders - Late October

Thanks for the column Mr. Zinner, I love the format, and as usual it was very well written. Hard to argue with your rankings, given the difficulty of staying on top of 20-25 relevant teams across the country, and the unpredictable nature of D3 soccer in general, so a job well done on putting together a very respectable list.

As I've written before on this thread (in a MSOTD), I think that while good teams might suffer 1-goal defeats throughout the year, a multiple goal defeats (especially by 3+) can paint a picture of a team being obviously outmatched in a game and not belonging among the top tier. That 3-0 loss to an 8-6 Dickinson team makes me questions RPI's invitation to the top 10. That being said, I don't really love the resume's of any of the other teams 11-20, so again, job well done to you.

I don't know if PSU-Behrend belongs on this list, especially at #15 above the likes of CNU and Mary Washington. Hard to argue with 15-1, but they've hardly beaten any giant killers this year. Massey has them at #82, just ahead of #83 Wesleyan, whose current residence in the NESCAC basement should give an indication of Behrend's true level. Yes, they made the sweet 16 last year (where they were given the smack down by Calvin), but they were definitely outplayed by JCU in the second round and probably should have been knocked out there. Given their location between the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic teams, the likes of Messiah, F&M, Hopkins, Kenyon, and JCU will be surely hoping they keep winning and get placed in their pod for a potentially easier second round matchup.

All that aside, thanks again for the column, and I'll be looking forward to your rankings heading into the tournament.

PaulNewman · October 25, 2019, 01:05:22 PM

I was going to start a new thread titled Zinn's Contenders Comments Corner, but then I saw YoungBuck's post above and will just post here.

A little minor nit-picking since I know many of us try to write with a little flair so some occasional hyperbole for effect is to be expected...

Calvin has "haters"? That's news to me. I would like to see some different teams reach the Final Four, but it's hard to have a problem with Calvin and one can even feel a trace of empathy given that the Knights have been on the front stoop of the ultimate prize several times.

"If adversity makes you stronger, then a lot of adversity makes you superman??" If Tufts has experienced a lot of adversity, then count me in. That's the kind of adversity I want.

After the first handful of picks I think it's hard to pick the next group of contenders. Zinn may recall that in his maiden offering he tapped OWU as his surprise standout team. OWU's recent play matches that sentiment, and IMO the Battling Bishops deserve to at least be in that second group. I also think Oneonta, W&L, CNU, Mary Washington and maybe Roanoke are being underrated. Of course one of the challenges with these kinds of analyses and prognostications is that it is almost impossible for any one person to have a good handle on all of the better teams from each region. And of course, for the most part, when posters say "People say..." or "Many thought back in September..." or whatever, they are using something another poster wrote about their own team(s) or an opponent of their own team(s). The body of knowledge and impressions to draw from are very interdependent between all of us. In other words, the forum in many instances serves as the research base for responses, commentary, columns, etc. I enjoy this aspect of the site and the contributors, so no criticism about that intended.

At any rate, even if my team isn't involved, I would prefer to see some fresh blood at the Final Four....like F&M, Hopkins, W&L, CNU or a real wild card like Mary Washington (who I still think no one has told much about).