2019 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[YoungBuck]

Calvin's schedule isn't weak. The Knights have played five matches thus far against NCAA-regionally-ranked opponents: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern, Chicago, Hope, and Kalamazoo. It's not Murderer's Row or anything, but it's good enough for an SOS that's just a shade under .600. Heaven knows that the abandonment of the double round-robin starting two years ago was the best decision that the people who run the MIAA could've ever made, and Ryan Souders seems to be making the most of that decision. Massey ranks Calvin's SOS 48th in the nation, which is better than RPI's or SUNY Oneonta's.

Luther had the 13th highest SOS of the 66 teams ranked in this past week's NCAA regional rankings, and three of Luther's opponents (St. Thomas, Central, and Loras) are RR. But the Norse have an SOS that's only ranked 100th by Massey, which may not be weak in the strict sense of the word -- after all, it's in the top quarter percentile in a division that has 419 teams -- but it's not at all impressive by national standards. The one thing that I'll say for Luther's schedule is that the Norse have hardly played any losing teams this season; only four of their 16 opponents to date (Johnson & Wales CO, St. Scholastica, Coe, and Nebraska Wesleyan) are under .500 at the moment.

While you're right about the overall SoS numbers of Calvin and Luther, just looking at SoS misses the spirit of the post.  Calvin's 62 goal number, while impressive, looks a bit more pedestrian when you take away the 16 combined goals they scored against Massey #303 Olivet and #238 Greenville.  Same for Luther's 47 goals if you take away the 12 goals against #382 Buena Vista and #230 NE Wesleyan.  While they both added plenty of tough games to boost their overall SoS, these games against BAD teams artificially boost their goal totals.  That being said, kudos to Calvin and Luther for blowing those teams out of the water, the same of which cannot be said for Tufts, Hopkins, and F&M against the likes of Trinity, Neumann, and Ursinus.   

[Hopkins92]

Hey, Neumann tied Scranton and beat a 9-7 Randolph-Macon!

(Kidding, your point is valid... Hop needed a pretty late goal to eke out a 2-1 home win against 4-11-1 Neumann.)

[Christan Shirk]

NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Amherst	12-0-2	0.608	5-0-2	12-0-2	1
2.	Tufts	10-2-2	0.611	6-2-1	10-2-2	2
3.	Connecticut College	9-3-2	0.606	2-3-2	9-3-2	4
4.	Middlebury	7-2-5	0.609	2-2-2	7-2-5	3
5.	Brandeis	9-3-4	0.585	2-3-1	9-3-4	5
6.	Williams	7-3-4	0.577	4-3-1	7-3-4	9
7.	Babson	10-5-2	0.570	2-3-2	10-5-2	7
8.	WPI	10-2-4	0.577	0-0-4	10-2-4	6
9.	Bates	8-5-1	0.567	2-4-0	8-5-1	10
10.	Keene State	12-5-0	0.564	0-2-0	12-5-0	8
11.	Endicott	9-5-2	0.553	1-2-0	9-5-2	--
12.	Eastern Connecticut	14-2-0	0.494	3-1-0	14-2-0	--

EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	RPI	13-1-2	0.570	5-0-1	13-1-2	1
2.	Oneonta State	15-2-0	0.554	3-1-0	15-2-0	2
3.	Hobart	12-4-1	0.566	5-2-0	12-4-1	4
4.	Ithaca	11-3-2	0.557	3-1-2	11-3-2	3
5.	Rochester	9-5-0	0.553	2-3-0	9-5-0	--
6.	Vassar	8-5-1	0.584	1-2-0	8-6-1	8
7.	Clarkson	8-4-3	0.545	4-1-2	8-4-3	--
8.	Skidmore	6-5-4	0.579	2-2-2	6-5-4	5

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Johns Hopkins	12-2-1	0.619	4-2-1	12-2-1	1
2.	Franklin and Marshall	13-2-0	0.604	4-1-0	13-2-0	2
3.	Messiah	13-2-2	0.573	3-2-1	13-2-2	3
4.	Swarthmore	10-2-3	0.602	2-1-2	10-2-3	4
5.	Gettysburg	9-5-1	0.631	3-4-1	9-5-1	6
6.	Dickinson	9-6-0	0.626	4-5-0	9-6-0	--
7.	Haverford	7-5-3	0.625	2-2-2	7-5-3	5
8.	Elizabethtown	10-4-2	0.549	1-3-0	10-4-2	7
9.	Catholic	15-2-1	0.518	1-1-1	15-2-1	9
10.	Lycoming	10-6-0	0.586	0-5-0	10-6-0	10

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Washington and Lee	11-2-3	0.605	3-1-2	11-2-3	3
2.	Christopher Newport	11-2-3	0.606	3-2-2	11-2-3	1
3.	Mary Washington	11-3-3	0.633	2-2-2	11-3-3	2
4.	Roanoke	11-1-3	0.558	1-0-2	12-1-3	4
5.	Oglethorpe	12-3-0	0.559	2-2-0	12-3-0	5
6.	Centre	13-3-1	0.569	3-3-0	13-3-1	6
7.	Ramapo	10-1-5	0.584	1-0-2	10-1-5	--
8.	Rowan	8-4-3	0.611	2-0-2	8-4-3	7

[Christan Shirk]

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	John Carroll	13-2-2	0.614	4-2-1	13-2-2	1
2.	Kenyon	11-1-2	0.573	3-1-1	13-1-2	2
3.	Ohio Wesleyan	10-4-3	0.619	5-3-2	10-4-3	3
4.	Ohio Northern	11-4-2	0.596	3-3-1	12-4-2	4
5.	Mount Union	9-2-4	0.546	1-1-1	9-2-4	5
6.	Otterbein	11-5-0	0.560	1-3-0	11-5-0	6
7.	Hanover	8-4-1	0.550	2-3-0	9-5-1	7
8.	Capital	7-4-4	0.556	1-2-2	7-4-4	8

CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Calvin	16-1-0	0.582	4-1-0	17-1-0	1
2.	Chicago	8-1-5	0.661	4-1-3	8-1-5	2
3.	North Park	12-4-0	0.611	2-3-0	12-4-0	3
4.	Kalamazoo	8-3-2	0.594	3-2-0	9-3-2	4
5.	North Central (Ill.)	10-5-1	0.591	2-2-0	10-5-1	7
6.	Wheaton (Ill.)	10-4-2	0.590	1-3-1	10-4-2	5
7.	Hope	12-5-0	0.573	1-4-0	12-5-0	6

NORTH REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Central	13-2-2	0.583	3-0-1	13-2-2	2
2.	Luther	12-3-1	0.587	2-2-0	13-3-1	1
3.	Loras	14-4-1	0.580	1-4-0	14-4-1	3
4.	St. Norbert	12-4-2	0.563	2-1-0	12-4-2	6
5.	St. Thomas	10-3-3	0.582	0-3-1	10-3-3	4
6.	Gustavus Adolphus	13-3-0	0.540	1-1-0	13-3-0	5
7.	Dubuque	9-5-2	0.567	1-3-0	9-5-2	--

WEST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	10-3-2	0.559	2-1-0	10-3-2	2
2.	Colorado College	9-5-0	0.576	2-2-0	12-5-0	3
3.	Trinity (Texas)	8-3-2	0.614	0-3-1	9-4-2	1
4.	Whitman	10-4-0	0.543	1-1-0	12-5-0	4
5.	Hardin-Simmons	11-2-1	0.491	2-0-0	13-2-1	6
6.	Redlands	7-3-3	0.517	1-0-3	7-4-3	--

[Flying Weasel]

As we think about teams' chances of gaining an at-large berth, something to keep in mind is that the men's tournament has been expanded to 64 teams this year and that means 21 Pool C at-large berths, two more than recent years.

[Flying Weasel]

Chicago is first team to book their place in the 2019 NCAA Tournament.  With last night's win over Case Western, they are now guaranteed a share of the UAA title, and because they hold the head-to-head tie-breaker over 2nd place NYU, Chicago has locked up the UAA automatic berth.

[Gregory Sager]

Calvin's schedule isn't weak. The Knights have played five matches thus far against NCAA-regionally-ranked opponents: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern, Chicago, Hope, and Kalamazoo. It's not Murderer's Row or anything, but it's good enough for an SOS that's just a shade under .600. Heaven knows that the abandonment of the double round-robin starting two years ago was the best decision that the people who run the MIAA could've ever made, and Ryan Souders seems to be making the most of that decision. Massey ranks Calvin's SOS 48th in the nation, which is better than RPI's or SUNY Oneonta's.

Luther had the 13th highest SOS of the 66 teams ranked in this past week's NCAA regional rankings, and three of Luther's opponents (St. Thomas, Central, and Loras) are RR. But the Norse have an SOS that's only ranked 100th by Massey, which may not be weak in the strict sense of the word -- after all, it's in the top quarter percentile in a division that has 419 teams -- but it's not at all impressive by national standards. The one thing that I'll say for Luther's schedule is that the Norse have hardly played any losing teams this season; only four of their 16 opponents to date (Johnson & Wales CO, St. Scholastica, Coe, and Nebraska Wesleyan) are under .500 at the moment.

While you're right about the overall SoS numbers of Calvin and Luther, just looking at SoS misses the spirit of the post.  Calvin's 62 goal number, while impressive, looks a bit more pedestrian when you take away the 16 combined goals they scored against Massey #303 Olivet and #238 Greenville.  Same for Luther's 47 goals if you take away the 12 goals against #382 Buena Vista and #230 NE Wesleyan.  While they both added plenty of tough games to boost their overall SoS, these games against BAD teams artificially boost their goal totals.  That being said, kudos to Calvin and Luther for blowing those teams out of the water, the same of which cannot be said for Tufts, Hopkins, and F&M against the likes of Trinity, Neumann, and Ursinus.   

Calvin's schedule isn't weak. The Knights have played five matches thus far against NCAA-regionally-ranked opponents: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern, Chicago, Hope, and Kalamazoo. It's not Murderer's Row or anything, but it's good enough for an SOS that's just a shade under .600. Heaven knows that the abandonment of the double round-robin starting two years ago was the best decision that the people who run the MIAA could've ever made, and Ryan Souders seems to be making the most of that decision. Massey ranks Calvin's SOS 48th in the nation, which is better than RPI's or SUNY Oneonta's.

Luther had the 13th highest SOS of the 66 teams ranked in this past week's NCAA regional rankings, and three of Luther's opponents (St. Thomas, Central, and Loras) are RR. But the Norse have an SOS that's only ranked 100th by Massey, which may not be weak in the strict sense of the word -- after all, it's in the top quarter percentile in a division that has 419 teams -- but it's not at all impressive by national standards. The one thing that I'll say for Luther's schedule is that the Norse have hardly played any losing teams this season; only four of their 16 opponents to date (Johnson & Wales CO, St. Scholastica, Coe, and Nebraska Wesleyan) are under .500 at the moment.

While you're right about the overall SoS numbers of Calvin and Luther, just looking at SoS misses the spirit of the post.  Calvin's 62 goal number, while impressive, looks a bit more pedestrian when you take away the 16 combined goals they scored against Massey #303 Olivet and #238 Greenville.  Same for Luther's 47 goals if you take away the 12 goals against #382 Buena Vista and #230 NE Wesleyan.  While they both added plenty of tough games to boost their overall SoS, these games against BAD teams artificially boost their goal totals.  That being said, kudos to Calvin and Luther for blowing those teams out of the water, the same of which cannot be said for Tufts, Hopkins, and F&M against the likes of Trinity, Neumann, and Ursinus.

Sure, but you said "offensive potency and balance, albeit against relatively weak schedules", not "relatively weak teams".

[d4_Pace]

With only a week of pre tournament soccer left who are the four favorites for 1 seeds and home field until the final four. Given the expansion to 64 there will be no more first round byes so being the top 2 seeds is less consequential. 

I think as of now it is:
New England + New York bracket-Amherst
New England+New Jersey+Pennsylvania-Tufts/JHU+F&M
Midwest 1 (Greater Chicago + Michigan): Calvin
Midwest 2 (Ohio+ Iowa+Maybe texas/california: JCU + Kenyon

Its always hard to predict with geography playing such a role but this is my best bet.

[PaulNewman]

With only a week of pre tournament soccer left who are the four favorites for 1 seeds and home field until the final four. Given the expansion to 64 there will be no more first round byes so being the top 2 seeds is less consequential. 

I think as of now it is:
New England + New York bracket-Amherst
New England+New Jersey+Pennsylvania-Tufts/JHU+F&M
Midwest 1 (Greater Chicago + Michigan): Calvin
Midwest 2 (Ohio+ Iowa+Maybe texas/california: JCU + Kenyon

Its always hard to predict with geography playing such a role but this is my best bet.

Could end up Calvin and Chicago both get #1s.  Calvin typically gets placed with OWU, JCU, Kenyon, etc 

And I think JHU or F&M could definitely snare that Jersey regional.

[PaulNewman]

Btw, I'm sure Mr. Shirk has addressed this in an article, but I had no clue that there is/was a ACAA tournament and with unusual travel.  The men played at Presentation of Mary Academy in Hudson, NH.  Santa Cruz, UW-W and Finlandia all to New Hampshire along with relative local Pine Manor in Massachusetts.  They money spent must be as much or more as any other conference tourney and maybe the NCAA tourney too.  Pine Manor lost in the semis but had a phenomenal season (which I think is the kind of school that no one can be sure will still be open from year to year).

[Christan Shirk]

Btw, I'm sure Mr. Shirk has addressed this in an article, but I had no clue that there is/was a ACAA tournament and with unusual travel.

Yes, that was covered in the What's New in 2019? article (halfway through the Conference Musical Chairs section) and in the similar article before last season as well.

Yes, a very unusual arrangement.  And a very expensive proposition for the conference tournament. 

BTW, Pine Manor was the conference tournament host, but held the games Presentation of Mary Academy in Hudson, NH as you mentioned.  The women's tournament was hosted by UC Santa Cruz with Mills (just up the road in Oakland), Finlandia (Upper Penisula Michigan) and Pratt (Brooklyn, NY) participating.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

With only a week of pre tournament soccer left who are the four favorites for 1 seeds and home field until the final four. Given the expansion to 64 there will be no more first round byes so being the top 2 seeds is less consequential. 

I think as of now it is:
New England + New York bracket-Amherst
New England+New Jersey+Pennsylvania-Tufts/JHU+F&M
Midwest 1 (Greater Chicago + Michigan): Calvin
Midwest 2 (Ohio+ Iowa+Maybe texas/california: JCU + Kenyon

Its always hard to predict with geography playing such a role but this is my best bet.

When did it jump from 62 to 64? I have not seen this changed noted anywhere for this year.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

With only a week of pre tournament soccer left who are the four favorites for 1 seeds and home field until the final four. Given the expansion to 64 there will be no more first round byes so being the top 2 seeds is less consequential. 

I think as of now it is:
New England + New York bracket-Amherst
New England+New Jersey+Pennsylvania-Tufts/JHU+F&M
Midwest 1 (Greater Chicago + Michigan): Calvin
Midwest 2 (Ohio+ Iowa+Maybe texas/california: JCU + Kenyon

Its always hard to predict with geography playing such a role but this is my best bet.

Could end up Calvin and Chicago both get #1s.  Calvin typically gets placed with OWU, JCU, Kenyon, etc 

And I think JHU or F&M could definitely snare that Jersey regional.

Will know more later but my guess right now would be these teams battling it out:

Amherst/Tufts
JHU/Oneonta/F&M
JC/Kenyon
Calvin/Chicago

[Gregory Sager]

With only a week of pre tournament soccer left who are the four favorites for 1 seeds and home field until the final four. Given the expansion to 64 there will be no more first round byes so being the top 2 seeds is less consequential. 

I think as of now it is:
New England + New York bracket-Amherst
New England+New Jersey+Pennsylvania-Tufts/JHU+F&M
Midwest 1 (Greater Chicago + Michigan): Calvin
Midwest 2 (Ohio+ Iowa+Maybe texas/california: JCU + Kenyon

Its always hard to predict with geography playing such a role but this is my best bet.

When did it jump from 62 to 64? I have not seen this changed noted anywhere for this year.

See page 17 of the Pre-Championships 2019-20 Manual. It's been out for months now.

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/soccer/d3/common/2019-20D3XSO_PreChampsManual.pdf

[Christan Shirk]

With only a week of pre tournament soccer left who are the four favorites for 1 seeds and home field until the final four. Given the expansion to 64 there will be no more first round byes so being the top 2 seeds is less consequential. 

I think as of now it is:
New England + New York bracket-Amherst
New England+New Jersey+Pennsylvania-Tufts/JHU+F&M
Midwest 1 (Greater Chicago + Michigan): Calvin
Midwest 2 (Ohio+ Iowa+Maybe texas/california: JCU + Kenyon

Its always hard to predict with geography playing such a role but this is my best bet.

When did it jump from 62 to 64? I have not seen this changed noted anywhere for this year.

See page 17 of the Pre-Championships 2019-20 Manual. It's been out for months now.

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/soccer/d3/common/2019-20D3XSO_PreChampsManual.pdf

Months might be an exaggeration, . . . at least for the general public as the manual is typically only available on-line in very late-September or in October.  And this year was no different.  And that's why I did not mention this change in the What's New in 2019? article on D3soccer.com back at the beginning of the season.  I think the numbers would have allowed them 63 teams last year, but for some reason it stayed at 62.  The D-III Manual specifies an access ratio of about 6.5, which gives some flexibility, but traditionally they have rounded down to arrive at the size of the tournament field.  This year they rounded up to reach the full, maximum 64-team field.