2019 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[Gregory Sager]

Will this be the year where a powerhouse program doesn't win it all? It seems like that's what we are in the making of here early on.

Tufts is a handful to deal with but only takes one team to knock them off come tournament time.
Messiah not the Messiah of the early and mid-2000's and have been suspect since 2013 team won it all.

You seem to have forgotten that Messiah won it all again in 2017.

Amherst once again strong but only one team is winning it from the NESCAC if any do.
Centennial and UAA schools are always hyped but haven't taken that last step. Is this the year they do?
Outsiders with a real chance may come from the SUNYAC or out west this year? Cortland and Oneonta have had much success and Trinity is always a threat despite their early woes. Does the Midwest have anyone besides Loras, Chicago, and St. Thomas that can be a threat?

Once the new backline has settled in and a couple of key players come back from injury within the next couple of weeks, North Park should be very good. And Calvin looks like it's picking up the pace after a slow start; the Knights have been too good for too long to ignore.

Can the South Atlantic or Great Lakes provide a team that looks destine to compete like the Rutgers Camden or Ohio Wesleyan's of old?

I'm very impressed by John Carroll's early-season body of work.

Lots of what ifs and unknowns but I think we are in the making of a special season where some of the more non-traditional teams make deep runs into the NCAA tourney and may even pull off the miracle of beating a powerhouse school like Tufts. Time will tell 

New blood is a good thing for any college sport. It's a sign of a more competitive environment.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Will this be the year where a powerhouse program doesn't win it all? It seems like that's what we are in the making of here early on.

Tufts is a handful to deal with but only takes one team to knock them off come tournament time.
Messiah not the Messiah of the early and mid-2000's and have been suspect since 2013 team won it all.

You seem to have forgotten that Messiah won it all again in 2017.

Amherst once again strong but only one team is winning it from the NESCAC if any do.
Centennial and UAA schools are always hyped but haven't taken that last step. Is this the year they do?
Outsiders with a real chance may come from the SUNYAC or out west this year? Cortland and Oneonta have had much success and Trinity is always a threat despite their early woes. Does the Midwest have anyone besides Loras, Chicago, and St. Thomas that can be a threat?

Once the new backline has settled in and a couple of key players come back from injury within the next couple of weeks, North Park should be very good. And Calvin looks like it's picking up the pace after a slow start; the Knights have been too good for too long to ignore.

Can the South Atlantic or Great Lakes provide a team that looks destine to compete like the Rutgers Camden or Ohio Wesleyan's of old?

I'm very impressed by John Carroll's early-season body of work.

Lots of what ifs and unknowns but I think we are in the making of a special season where some of the more non-traditional teams make deep runs into the NCAA tourney and may even pull off the miracle of beating a powerhouse school like Tufts. Time will tell 

New blood is a good thing for any college sport. It's a sign of a more competitive environment.

Love the comments! How could I miss Calvin?! My mistake definitely should have included them in the Mid-West section. I am intrigued by North Park and also to see if Wheaton can get going again. As for the Messiah comment. 10 titles in 14 years and a 5th of the last 6 at that point in 2013 is far different than 1 in the last 5. A great accomplishment no doubt but certainly a different vibe surrounding the Falcons in the last half decade compared to 2000 thru 2013. I should even make it 2014 as that team should have won it but Tufts started the dynasty and it's been all Jumbos ever since! 100% agree on the new blood statement as well! Makes it interesting and exciting to see what programs can flourish and how long can they sustain it.

[Gregory Sager]

There was nothing suspect at all about that 2017 Messiah team, which clearly was first in class and deserved to win it all.

[Shooter McGavin]

There was nothing suspect at all about that 2017 Messiah team, which clearly was first in class and deserved to win it all.

Greg--I don't think MAF is trying to discredit the 2017 Messiah team at all. I read it as the program was stronger earlier on and lately it hasn't been as strong by their standards and expectations. I would like to add that I think the competition is a little better and more widespread amongst teams lately, making it even more difficult for powerhouses like Messiah to continue that kind of dominance we saw from 2000-2013 as MAF had mentioned.

Some teams to watch this year that I haven't seen mentioned are Stevens, Oneonta and Christopher Newport. Stevens has been consistently good and made some nice runs in NCAA's but Oneonta and CNU have been down a touch from previous years but have started this campaign strong. Look for them to get back to their winning ways and be dangerous foes come tournament time. Centre also picking up some nice early season results. 

[Ejay]

Some teams to watch this year that I haven't seen mentioned are Stevens, Oneonta and Christopher Newport.

I've mentioned Stevens and CNU as teams of interest this year.  I think Stevens conference move is a huge win for them, though I think they lost a nice player in Kochman who was the 3rd or 4th leading scorer last year as a freshman. They have a local rival game with RUN this weekend and then travel to F&M for a huge game on Wed.

And I'm intrigued with CNU as they have a new coach and are coming off their first losing season in 25 years! They're headed to Texas this weekend for two big games against Trinity and Hardin Simmons. Two wins there could define their season, though admittedly Trinity seems to be down this year.

[Gregory Sager]

There was nothing suspect at all about that 2017 Messiah team, which clearly was first in class and deserved to win it all.

Greg--I don't think MAF is trying to discredit the 2017 Messiah team at all. I read it as the program was stronger earlier on and lately it hasn't been as strong by their standards and expectations.

Sorry, but there's really no other way to read the phrase, "... and have been suspect ever since 2013 team won it all." The 2017 team is included within that phrase, thanks to the term "ever since", is it not?

Nobody's arguing about the first part of his statement, which is that the Messiah dynasty of the first decade and a half of this century is kaput. That's an incontrovertible fact. But when you win the national championship -- and, what's more, when you deserve to win the national championship -- as the Falcons did two seasons ago, there is no way in the world that you should be put under the damning rubric of the word "suspect".

Your milder reading of MAF's intent may be more along the lines of what he truly meant, but I don't know MAF. All I can go by is what he actually wrote, and what he actually wrote about the 2017 Messiah team is incorrect.

I would like to add that I think the competition is a little better and more widespread amongst teams lately, making it even more difficult for powerhouses like Messiah to continue that kind of dominance we saw from 2000-2013 as MAF had mentioned.

Not to keep pushing back, but MAF's a little ambivalent on that point. On the one hand, he's advocating for that better-competition-and-more-diffused-success angle you mentioned. On the other hand, however, he's very much of the mind that this has not interfered at all with the creation of a genuine dynasty -- Tufts, this time, rather than Messiah.

[PaulNewman]

Mr. Sager, I agree with everything you wrote EXCEPT the phrase with emphasis of "deserved to win".  Are you saying deserved in a singular sense, or would you agree there might have been at least a handful of deserving teams (like most years).  For instance, I think many of us considered Chicago deserving that year and if North Park had prevailed against Messiah I certainly wouldn't have called NP undeserving.  Or are you arguing something far more literal...that if you win the title you deserve it, so then the idea of a non-deserving winner becomes meaningless?

[Gregory Sager]

No, I meant it in the second sense, that Messiah was among the crème de la crème. I agree with you that it wouldn't have been out of the blue for Chicago or NPU or Brandeis (or Tufts, I presume, although I didn't see the Jumbos that season) to have walked away with the Walnut & Bronze two autumns ago in Greensboro.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

There was nothing suspect at all about that 2017 Messiah team, which clearly was first in class and deserved to win it all.

Greg--I don't think MAF is trying to discredit the 2017 Messiah team at all. I read it as the program was stronger earlier on and lately it hasn't been as strong by their standards and expectations.

Sorry, but there's really no other way to read the phrase, "... and have been suspect ever since 2013 team won it all." The 2017 team is included within that phrase, thanks to the term "ever since", is it not?

Nobody's arguing about the first part of his statement, which is that the Messiah dynasty of the first decade and a half of this century is kaput. That's an incontrovertible fact. But when you win the national championship -- and, what's more, when you deserve to win the national championship -- as the Falcons did two seasons ago, there is no way in the world that you should be put under the damning rubric of the word "suspect".

Your milder reading of MAF's intent may be more along the lines of what he truly meant, but I don't know MAF. All I can go by is what he actually wrote, and what he actually wrote about the 2017 Messiah team is incorrect.

I would like to add that I think the competition is a little better and more widespread amongst teams lately, making it even more difficult for powerhouses like Messiah to continue that kind of dominance we saw from 2000-2013 as MAF had mentioned.

Not to keep pushing back, but MAF's a little ambivalent on that point. On the one hand, he's advocating for that better-competition-and-more-diffused-success angle you mentioned. On the other hand, however, he's very much of the mind that this has not interfered at all with the creation of a genuine dynasty -- Tufts, this time, rather than Messiah.

Never talked poorly on the Messiah 2017 team or the program in general in fact it's always been the opposite. I also never said they weren't deserving so please don't put false words in my mouth. And so you think the competition has gotten worse over the last 5 or 6 years? Interesting. I think there is far more continuity both regionally and nationally between teams than ever before. Teams are beating the Messiahs and Tufts more frequently than the powerhouses of old that never dropped more than a game and went on to win it all. Heck Messiah already has 3 blemishes this season and we are only 5 games in! Nothing in my post was meant to be argumentative or spark a cruel debate but was hopeful in hearing other people's thoughts on the D3 landscape this year. I think you can see from my previous posts and +/- score that I don't rub people the wrong way often but I guess I can't speak for you Mr. Sager. By all means my deepest and sincere apologies to you and yours. Wish you nothing but the best! 

[Mr.Right]

Interesting coincidence maybe or planned but there have already been 7 games between SUNYAC / NJAC teams within the first 2 weeks. The SUNYAC has an impressive 5-2-0 record v NJAC in 2019. One of the NJAC's Wins was Rowan and that Win could be huge down the line.

[Gregory Sager]

There was nothing suspect at all about that 2017 Messiah team, which clearly was first in class and deserved to win it all.

Greg--I don't think MAF is trying to discredit the 2017 Messiah team at all. I read it as the program was stronger earlier on and lately it hasn't been as strong by their standards and expectations.

Sorry, but there's really no other way to read the phrase, "... and have been suspect ever since 2013 team won it all." The 2017 team is included within that phrase, thanks to the term "ever since", is it not?

Nobody's arguing about the first part of his statement, which is that the Messiah dynasty of the first decade and a half of this century is kaput. That's an incontrovertible fact. But when you win the national championship -- and, what's more, when you deserve to win the national championship -- as the Falcons did two seasons ago, there is no way in the world that you should be put under the damning rubric of the word "suspect".

Your milder reading of MAF's intent may be more along the lines of what he truly meant, but I don't know MAF. All I can go by is what he actually wrote, and what he actually wrote about the 2017 Messiah team is incorrect.

I would like to add that I think the competition is a little better and more widespread amongst teams lately, making it even more difficult for powerhouses like Messiah to continue that kind of dominance we saw from 2000-2013 as MAF had mentioned.

Not to keep pushing back, but MAF's a little ambivalent on that point. On the one hand, he's advocating for that better-competition-and-more-diffused-success angle you mentioned. On the other hand, however, he's very much of the mind that this has not interfered at all with the creation of a genuine dynasty -- Tufts, this time, rather than Messiah.

Never talked poorly on the Messiah 2017 team or the program in general in fact it's always been the opposite. I also never said they weren't deserving so please don't put false words in my mouth.

I'm not putting false words in your mouth. In fact, I've quoted your words repeatedly:

Messiah not the Messiah of the early and mid-2000's and have been suspect since 2013 team won it all.

My argument has always been with your calling the 2017 Messiah team "suspect". If what you're saying is that a team could be suspect yet still deserving of a national title ... well, OK, it's your words, but that statement doesn't make much sense to me.

And so you think the competition has gotten worse over the last 5 or 6 years? Interesting.

I never said that. In fact, I'm agnostic on the issue. I simply don't see enough coast-to-coast D3 men's soccer to formulate what I would consider to be an educated opinion regarding competitiveness on the grand scale. After all, there's 416 D3 men's soccer programs to eyeball! I'm willing to do some D3 tourney research on the topic, because I find your theory intriguing, although looking at old tourney brackets is not the same thing at all as watching a steady diet of Maine-to-California soccer.

I think there is far more continuity both regionally and nationally between teams than ever before. Teams are beating the Messiahs and Tufts more frequently than the powerhouses of old that never dropped more than a game and went on to win it all. Heck Messiah already has 3 blemishes this season and we are only 5 games in! Nothing in my post was meant to be argumentative or spark a cruel debate but was hopeful in hearing other people's thoughts on the D3 landscape this year. I think you can see from my previous posts and +/- score that I don't rub people the wrong way often but I guess I can't speak for you Mr. Sager. By all means my deepest and sincere apologies to you and yours. Wish you nothing but the best!

You misunderstand me. You didn't "rub me the wrong way" at all. On the contrary, I enjoyed your post and I liked and appreciated the lead-in into further conversation that you provided. I simply objected to your referring to the 2017 Messiah team as "suspect" ... and I'm trying to figure out how you square the circle of calling D3 men's soccer more competitive across the board over the past five seasons while also maintaining that Tufts has been a genuine dynasty during that time.

[Ejay]

I'm trying to figure out how you square the circle of calling D3 men's soccer more competitive across the board over the past five seasons while also maintaining that Tufts has been a genuine dynasty during that time.

Just because you have a so-called dynasty doesn't mean the overall product isn't better. Is the level of competition from #2-#20 greater in the past 5 years than it was previously? I don't have an opinion but I would think MAF would argue the bar has been raised across the board, which makes Tufts success all the more impressive.

[PaulNewman]

A couple more thoughts especially since I have been one of the posters touting the superiority of Tufts and have been cited for overestimating them throughout seasons the past 3-4 years.  I learned my lesson in 2014 when early in the season I questioned what Shapiro was doing with Gus Santos and they were struggling a bit and then of course went on to win their first national title. 

I think the question of whether there's been some slippage at the very top or just more teams that are very competitive is very much open.  Maybe it's both, or maybe neither.  I don't know enough about the 2000s and whether during Messiah's grand run there was another handful of very good teams and teams that challenged Messiah each year along the way (like games that could have gone either way and I'm reminded of the many references to I think 2010 and Lynchburg.

I do believe Tufts is in the midst of at least a mini-dynasty.  In 5 years they've won more national titles than historically famed programs like OWU and Wheaton.  Just a remarkable run.  BUT, it could have been different.  I was curious about the 20-0 and 21-1 type seasons.  Messiah was 20-2 in 2017 so that meets the high bar but if you look closer they got by Castleton (yes, Castleton) 1-0, then Hobart 1-0, then Stevens 3-2, UR 2-0, Brandeis 3-2 and NP 2-1.  They could have lost one of those or the year before they could have beaten Calvin on their home field and challenged in 2016.  They should have won in 2014 as that inho was one of, if not the best, D3 team I've seem in my 8-10 years of following closely, BUT, Tufts got them on that Muhlenberg field, played an almost flawless game, got the very early goal they needed, and then went on the very DESERVEDLY take the championship.  That Tufts team entered the tourney at 11-2-4 (not overwhelmingly impressive while keeping in mind that NESCAC schools play less games).  Anyway, and this is where fortune plays a role, who knows if Tufts would have won ANY titles if they didn't get by Messiah that day, and perhaps Messiah would have had two more.  The Jumbos looked even less overwhelming in 2016, as they entered the tourney (with questions about even getting in) at a mediocre-looking 9-5-2.  They went on the road and beat Rowan and then due to a series of unpredictable events received home field for the sectional.  They struggled to get by UMass-Boston, and that with UMass playing without 2-3 of their studs including their best player after the Haverford debacle.  Who knows if they would have beaten Haverford at Haverford.  Then the next day they get their grudge match with Kenyon that couldn't host because of some vicious bacteria that ate up the field in Gambier (and there was no way the NCAA was going to send two Boston teams and Kenyon to Trinity (TX) when by season results Trinity probably should have hosted).  The Lords demolished that Trinity squad with a sterling record and the Tufts game could have gone either way (109th minute GW) just as could have occurred the year before in Gambier.  Tufts won two titles in finals against Calvin and I think most of us would say that a split of those titles would have been fair (while acknowledging that 'fair' is perhaps not exactly the right word.  Tufts won fair and square and they took whatever good fortune there was cashed in.  Momentum grows momentum and now we have a juggernaut.  No one will be shocked if Tufts hoists the trophy again this year.  BTW, the 2018 version of Tufts was closer to the ideal of undefeated or 1-loss seasons, as they finished 18-0-3.  Amherst was 18-1-2 in winning the title in 2015.

[PaulNewman]

W&L appears to be rebounding nicely....up 5-1 on Emory with 14-15 min to go.

Some good games tonight and again tomorrow.  Rowan at Chicago, Chris Newport at Trinity, and St. Thomas at C-M-S stand out, but there are other potential good ones with Wartburg at GAC, Oglethorpe at Lynchburg, Knox at Centre, Loras at St. John's, Dominican at Wash U, Carthage at St. Olaf, and Puget Sound at Chapman.

[Flying Weasel]

I think you can both believe (a) that the level of play has risen across the board and there's more parity than ever making it harder then ever to be consistently at or near the top, and (b) acknowledge that Tufts has nevertheless managed to do just that.

Certainly the overall talent/skill level has risen across Division III over the past two decades (from the time the Messiah dynasty was just getting started to the present). What the average player today can do is far ahead of what the average player could do 20 years ago. In general, today's top players are better than the top players back than; however, I think the gap between the top players and the average player has shrunk significantly.

Whether there is more parity at the top and more teams year-in, year-out who are good enough to be in the Top 10/Top 25/Top 40 conversations, that's not as clear to me.  It would seem so.  But is it more a case of increased turnover in who the Top 40 teams are year to year and shorter runs in the Top 25 for all but the very top programs?  In any given year, are there defintely more teams with realistic shot at the national title now than 20 years ago?  It feels like it, but I'm not sure.

Consequently, I am not completely convinced that what Tufts has done over the last 5 years is more difficult and impressive than what Messiah did in any 5-year stretch you want to pick out. Maybe it is. The one thing that does strike me as more impressive about Tufts is how they came out of nowhere almost.  Messiah was a team that was usually in the Top 25 conversation for a decade and a half before winning their first title. Messiah went to two Final Four in the late 80's. Messiah was a known quantity and had a certain level of pedigree, even if they weren't yet one of the elite programs like Ohio Wesleyan or Wheeaton were back then.