2019 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

I didn't know teams could play this early (and I assume this wasn't an exhibition game), but you just never know what you are gonna get for a game at Crestview Hills, KY (home of the Thomas More Fights Saints).  Or maybe you do know what you're gonna get.  Centre beats TMC 2-1 and both teams shared a bunch of yellows and at least three reds.

Let the madness begin lol.

[Caz Bombers]

counted for Thomas More but it was an exhibition for Centre. I bet those cards count though.

[Go2Goal]

Rowan over Eastern in a scrimmage tonight 2-0.

[Shooter McGavin]

Do we know if there will be a top 25 preseason poll for the men as there is for the women?

[NESCAC43]

Do we know if there will be a top 25 preseason poll for the men as there is for the women?

I'm assuming it will be released in the next day or so before the season kicks off. I believe there are more voters for the men's poll than the women's so I'm guessing the delay is waiting on votes to come in. I could be wrong. I'm a much bigger fan of the D3Soccer.com preseason rankings because they are usually voted on by a panel versus the United Soccer Coaches poll because that one simply rolls forward from the end of the previous season.

[Domino1195]

I didn't know teams could play this early (and I assume this wasn't an exhibition game), but you just never know what you are gonna get for a game at Crestview Hills, KY (home of the Thomas More Fights Saints).  Or maybe you do know what you're gonna get.  Centre beats TMC 2-1 and both teams shared a bunch of yellows and at least three reds.

Let the madness begin lol.

With TM you know what you're going to get 

Looks like their NAIA conference has several games already in the books.

[NESCAC43]

https://www.d3soccer.com/top25/men/2019/preseason

Men's preseason ranking released. Pretty good write-ups on each team.

[Christan Shirk]

Do we know if there will be a top 25 preseason poll for the men as there is for the women?

I'm assuming it will be released in the next day or so before the season kicks off. I believe there are more voters for the men's poll than the women's so I'm guessing the delay is waiting on votes to come in. I could be wrong. I'm a much bigger fan of the D3Soccer.com preseason rankings because they are usually voted on by a panel versus the United Soccer Coaches poll because that one simply rolls forward from the end of the previous season.

Well we at D3soccer.com are glad you are a fan of our preseason rankings because we have lost all of them from 2012 through 2018 and if you know where they are, we'd love to have them back to include in our Top 25 archive page.  PM me with details.

I kid, I kid.  Prior to this season, D3soccer.com has only ever done preseason rankings once . . . in 2011.  That year it was a poll of our weekly Top 25 panelists.  This year it is NOT a poll, but rather an in-house staff-developed ranking. 

We'd love to be able to offer a preseason ranking every year, but only if it can be done well and be meaningful.  In other words, only if it can be based on the consideration of factors such as graduation/retention of players/starters/standouts, percentage of goals and assists attributable to returning players, class distribution, positional distribution of returning players and starters, coaching changes, etc. And there's even more nuanced ways of looking at this type of data. In a perfect world, you'd also know about key losses to injury and players returning from a red-shirt year, and you'd have a feel for the strength/potential of incoming recruiting class.

This year is a trial run of sorts for us to . . .
• see the extent of the effort and challenge to gather and compile the available relevant data
• see if the data can be summarized in a way that allows for meaningful and efficient analysis
• evaluate if it feels like it would be reasonable for our weekly Top 25 panel to effectively review and compare the sizable summary of data to arrive at a ranking in the limited time they have, especially when they are in the middle of gearing up for a new season.
• gage the confidence level in making a ranking based primary on the numerical data versus doing additional research into the things not captured or completely reflected in the mere numerical data, and how much investment in additional research is required to reach a satisfactory level of confidence to develop and publish a ranking
• etc. . . .

[Gregory Sager]

Just sent you guys an e-mail, Christan, but I'll say this publicly as well: Thanks for all of your work on this.

[PaulNewman]

Well, yet another failed attempt to refrain from posting....and always tapping out on that score so quickly!

The new D3 poll looks to be very well done and obviously took quite a bit of work.

I'm guessing RH had a hand in some of the Kenyon/Case/OWU portions as well as others, and insightful comments as always.  Maybe he didn't though because Kenyon didn't play OWU in the NCAA 2nd round as last year was the first in a very long time when OWU didn't make the tournament.

The analogy about Case perhaps starting a run similar to Kenyon's overall made sense.  I think the one difference is that the UAA top to bottom is tougher and harder to prognosticate.  I think we can say that Case made a brilliant hire and they gave him some time to build something.  Seems like a good guy too.

I'm surprised to see Kenyon rated so highly.  The comments are true in terms of raw results compared to other programs since 2013/14....few have won more.  Kenyon lost one game all last year but only ended up with a Sweet 16 to show for it.  The year before was supposed to be a great one but Myers tore his ACL in the NCAA 1st round and Kenyon was dismissed by Otterbein in a comedy of errors.  The Lords are either the most snake-bitten team or biggest chokers of the last half-decade...and perhaps along with F&M the most overdue to reach a Final Four. 

I thought last year would be the start of a decline or at least when OWU would re-overtake Kenyon as the top program in that part of the world.  I think some others thought so too.  That definitely could happen this year.  Myers was a tough graduation and now they are without Lowry, Anderson and a handful of other productive players in last year's graduating class.  Brown definitely passed the test last year and I think this year is another big one in terms of whether they are at a point in the program where they reload or have to rebuild.  Brown brought in another big class (the biggest since 2011) with 15 frosh.  Two are from Iceland, one from the UK and another from Poland.  They should have great depth and definitely have some speed with guys like Carson and Upton back for their soph years. 

P.S.  OWU legend Travis Wall moved on to be head coach at St Olaf.  Will be interesting to see if Bianco or Wall end up at OWU if and when Coach Martin steps aside.  I would think Case and the UAA would be hard to leave but especially as an alum of OWU and given its standing as one of the special programs in the country that opportunity might be too enticing to pass up.  Of course Martin might coach for another 10-15 years.

[d3commenter]

Opening weekend is upon us

[PaulNewman]

Well done review of Tufts.  Every year some of us seem to think Tufts is overrated or just not as good as advertised and yet they seem to exceed already very high expectations almost every year.  And in general they also seem to get a little better each year.  I agree with the suggestion that this year's edition might be the strongest ever.  Shapiro has been a marvel, turning the program from an afterthought to "will they sneak in the tournament" to will they win the whole thing yet again.  The attacking line-up described in the review is indeed frightening.  IMHO Tufts is now equal to Messiah as a program and currently enjoys a decent margin of superiority over the rest of the current field.  So yes, until proven otherwise, the clear and obvious #1 team in the country.  Any loss, during the season or in the tournament, will be a surprise.

Gestalt shifts are also huge.  Some teams look at reaching the Final Four or winning a title as a huge mountain to climb.  Tufts now I think presumes they are going to win and the task looks so very doable from their vantage point.  One or maybe two very manageable games in the opening weekend (which generally gives top New England teams attractive matchups).  Get two solid wins (now likely at home) in the second weekend against squads they are favored to beat and they're in the Final Four.  And we all know what they've done once they get there.

[truenorth]

PaulNewman, I think it's hard to argue with your assessment of Tufts as a truly established national power.  Over the past 5-6 years they have outperformed Messiah in terms of advancing deep into...and winning several times...the NCAA tournament.  It wasn't that long ago that they were virtually an automatic "W" each season for most of the other NESCAC teams.

However, I don't completely agree with your statement that "every loss would be a surprise".  At the risk of stating the obvious, the NESCAC is highly competitive and most teams can beat any other team on a given day.  As one example, Bowdoin had Tufts dead to rights last year until Tufts scored a fluky last second goal that sent the game into OT.  Yeah I know, great teams always find a way to win...but you can't always count on Lady Luck to fall your way every time... 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Tufts lost 2 or more NESCAC games this season.

[PaulNewman]

PaulNewman, I think it's hard to argue with your assessment of Tufts as a truly established national power.  Over the past 5-6 years they have outperformed Messiah in terms of advancing deep into...and winning several times...the NCAA tournament.  It wasn't that long ago that they were virtually an automatic "W" each season for most of the other NESCAC teams.

However, I don't completely agree with your statement that "every loss would be a surprise".  At the risk of stating the obvious, the NESCAC is highly competitive and most teams can beat any other team on a given day.  As one example, Bowdoin had Tufts dead to rights last year until Tufts scored a fluky last second goal that sent the game into OT.  Yeah I know, great teams always find a way to win...but you can't always count on Lady Luck to fall your way every time... 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Tufts lost 2 or more NESCAC games this season.

Percentages are on your side, but they did go undefeated a year ago.  No slight intended towards the rest of the NESCAC, but there is a gap between Tufts and the next best NESCAC squads, just as there is a gap imho between Tufts and the rest of the country.  I think they will be better than last year even if the records doesn't reflect that.  Which doesn't mean a Colby or a Conn Coll can't get a sneak win over the Jumbos or that they get knocked out of the NCAA tourney in Pks or a late goal.  3 titles in 5 years.  The other two years they lost in Sweet 16 and Elite 8 on last second and OT goals.  Could have been five in a row or could have been zero.  You have to be fortunate too.

[PaulNewman]

If you're looking for a good game with atmosphere and great commercials catch the seemingly odd opening day matchup with Roanoke @ Lynchburg.