2019 Great Lakes Region

[Christan Shirk]

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	John Carroll	15-2-2	0.596	5-2-1	15-2-2	1
2.	Kenyon	13-1-2	0.565	3-1-1	15-1-2	2
3.	Ohio Wesleyan	12-4-3	0.589	5-3-2	12-4-3	3
4.	Ohio Northern	12-5-2	0.601	4-4-1	13-5-2	4
5.	Mount Union	10-3-4	0.544	2-1-1	10-3-4	5
6.	Otterbein	12-6-0	0.565	2-5-0	12-6-0	6
7.	Hanover	10-4-1	0.528	2-3-0	11-5-1	7
8.	Capital	8-5-4	0.557	1-3-2	8-5-4	8

[Domino1195]

At the half:

PSU-B has a PK stopped but scores minutes later off a corner.  After a delay due to CR injury, play restarts with PSU-B moving directly ahead, player dribbles by two, three MTA defenders and rips one to the far post. 2-0.  Don't think I'll tune back into this one.

Missed the two goals in the Kenyon game - both PK's.  1-1 at half.

Hanover with a dominant (statistical) performance with nothing to show, then with 40 some-odd second left a player dribbles across the 18 and blasts one - upper 90 far post.  Beauty. 1-0 at half.

Downloaded the third rankings - haven't converted and sorted the data yet.  But with Capital possibly dropping out of the 8 might be interesting to project what the RvR looks like with them out.

[Domino1195]

For the third straight week the RR did not change. Couple things to note:

   
• Hanover drops 5 spots based on SOS, but based on the Pool C criteria adopted this year they won't lose the ranked win vs Capital if Cap drops out the final week.  But realistically the only team that can jump Capital is Marietta and they'd need a helluva week to do so (I cut this list to teams with SOS greater than .500)
• That ONU loss last night could be very costly, but with 4 ranked wins and the only SOS over .600, they could still be in consideration come next week.  And their SOS might go up given what OWU, Hope, Hanover and Otterbein do this week.
• MTU and Otterbein are in control of their fate. Think I'll be at that game on Thursday!

 

Institution	Vs Ranked	SOS Week 1	SOS Week 2	SOS Week 3	Week 1 RR	Week 2 RR	Week 3 RR
Ohio Northern	4-4-1	0.613	0.596	0.601	4	4	4
John Carroll	5-2-1	0.622	0.614	0.596	1	1	1
CWRU	1-4-3	0.586	0.590	0.591
Ohio Wesleyan	5-3-2	0.617	0.619	0.589	3	3	3
Carnegie Mellon	1-4-1	0.557	0.576	0.579
Kenyon	3-1-1	0.594	0.573	0.565	2	2	2
Otterbein	2-5-0	0.565	0.560	0.565	6	6	6
Capital	1-3-2	0.556	0.556	0.557	8	8	8
Heidelberg	0-6-0	0.538	0.554	0.55
Mount Union	2-1-1	0.574	0.546	0.544	5	5	5
Denison	0-5-1	0.566	0.546	0.535
Oberlin	0-5-0	0.516	0.513	0.53
Marietta	0-5-1	0.508	0.536	0.529
Hanover (10)	2-3-0	0.562	0.550	0.528	7	7	7
Allegheny	0-2-0	0.536	0.540	0.528
Transylvania	0-6-0	0.538	0.527	0.525
DePauw	0-3-0	0.518	0.503	0.525
Wooster	1-4-0	0.53	0.536	0.516
Baldwin Wallace	2-3-0	0.477	0.502	0.504

[PaulNewman]

Really glad I missed the first 25 minutes of Kenyon today.  Lords gave up a PK in the first minute on what was described as a defensive blunder capped by the GK taking out Oberlin's best player.  I'd bet money that the play is what I'm been screaming about all year.  Everyone has to be on top of their games, including the coaches.  Tomas Munoz Reyes did not play today as I feared.  He's featured as just having won NCAC player of the week but also was injured in the last regular season tilt.  He scored twice and picked up a yellow.  He needed to be subbed out as he had done his job and he is prone to picking up yellows, so the coaches should have gotten him out to avoid him missing the next game with two yellows (red).  He stays in for a blowout, suffers and injury, and now I suppose he's out for a while.  Same thing with a couple of players today (Schoellkopf had a strong game but imo should have been off the field for the last 10-15 minutes).   Anyway, at this stage of the season especially, details matter.  Players and coaches have to bring intensity, urgency and concentration.

[Domino1195]

Paul - FWIW Kenyon totally took control in the second half - hitting posts and crossbars in addition to scoring 4 goals.

Looks like I'm getting most of the conference tournament match-ups to was hoping to see:

   
• HCAC - Hanover scores two crackers from outside the 18 (more on that later, OWU) to earn their spot.  RHIT and Transy had an epic battle with RHIT winning 2-1, getting a PK with about 25 minutes left.  I watched the PK several times and, given the scrappy play the CR allowed for much of the game, I think this call was harsh. Two kids battling for the ball - ball squirts out and two more kids battle for the ball - player goes down. Sorry - I need more than that to hand a game of this importance to a team.  So we have Hanover, winners of their last 9, including a 2-1 win over RHIT, versus RHIT, winners of their last 6, at Hanover.  Good thing too from a playing surface perspective.  Not sure what's going on with RHIT's field but I've seen better grass in Saudia Arabia during the summer.  Maybe use Scott's Lawn Care products?
• Based on what I've seen from these teams this year:  I believe RHIT is the better team. The conference championship has been decided in regular time only once in the past 6 years, twice needing PK's to declare the winner.
• PAC - W&J dream season continues - barely. Grove City ties the game up with less than a minutes left in the second half, only to fall in OT 2-1. Geneva and Westminster need kicks from the mark to settle their scoreless affair.  GC could never find a level of consistency to make a run that most expected from this team this year, but inconsistency ruled their season.  W&J spanked Geneva at Geneva this year - started to watch that game but turned it off after W&J scored 3 goals in 12 minutes (after going down 1-0).
• W&J has the third lowest SOS in the GL; Geneva took Capital to OT scoreless and lost to Case with 10 second left in regulation.  The highest rated team W&J played was Marietta, to whom they lost 3-0. My hunch is Geneva pulls an upset.
• AMCC - as I expected we're going to get a rematch of PSU-B at Medaille. These two have met in the AMCC tournament final 9 of the last 10 years - PSU-B has been to every final in the last 10 years. 2 of the 3 times Medaille won the tourney it was by PK's.  But here's PSU-B with their gaudy 19-1 record needing to win this game or be excluded from the NCAA tourney.
• NCAC - Kenyon's solid second half earned them their spot in the NCAC finals.  OWU scores early in the first half - header off a corner that most in attendance couldn't understand how the player got his head on the ball - past the back post and seemingly over his head, and then secondly - how it got in the goal.  But great skill by the goal scorer!  But if soccer kept track of possession in the 18 like the NFL does with red zone possessions, OWU would have had a dozen possessions in the first half - no shots taken!!!  They dominated possession for the first 20 minutes - things evened up for the end of the half and for much of the second half.  But they over-passed - got to take shots lads.
• OAC match-up tonight.  Supposed to have snowfall - might have accumulation, which I think would be more likely in Cleveland than in Columbus.  Tentatively going to the Otterbein-MTU game - but if it snows . . .

[ChrisJS]

Re PS-B am I right to assume they have to win the AQ otherwise they don't make the big dance despite having 18/19 wins? Their SOS was under 0.500 last time I looked, do teams ever get a pool C berth at that level?

[Domino1195]

Re PS-B am I right to assume they have to win the AQ otherwise they don't make the big dance despite having 18/19 wins? Their SOS was under 0.500 last time I looked, do teams ever get a pool C berth at that level?

Almost impossible.  And you have to look no further than your JCU team of 2014:  17-4 record, 4-0-0 vs ranked, SOS .535.  The OAC was weaker than the NCAC then - tables turned a bit now.

[Shooter McGavin]

Re PS-B am I right to assume they have to win the AQ otherwise they don't make the big dance despite having 18/19 wins? Their SOS was under 0.500 last time I looked, do teams ever get a pool C berth at that level?

Almost impossible.  And you have to look no further than your JCU team of 2014:  17-4 record, 4-0-0 vs ranked, SOS .535.  The OAC was weaker than the NCAC then - tables turned a bit now.

That JC team got robbed though...yes SOS was low but 4 ranked wins and undefeated vs ranked is legit. Total crime they missed out that year.

[Domino1195]

JCU and Otterbein to meet in the OAC final. JCU wins a close one, again, on a set piece, again (throw in).  Otterbein needs OT for the second consecutive match.

With the win over MTU - which I assume will be ranked in the final RR, Otterbein's resume would be 3-5-0 vs ranked.  Their .565 SOS will increase with the additional games against MTU and JCU - but by how much?  JCU could survive a loss Saturday and still get in, Otterbein may be on the bubble for a Pool C.  After the 5 GL AQ's the only sure Pool C is the loser of OWU and Kenyon for the GL.

[Mr.Right]

I watched bits and pieces of both games. JCU looked decent but actually Otterbein looks like a team that could win a game or 2 in the NCAA's. They have all the size they need and they look to attack goal and are a team that  will find any scrappy goal and pounce on any mistake u give them.  Cold weather team with the right matchup could win a game or 2. They have a young 32 year old Brit as Head Coach who was never a Head Coach before this gig but has been successful so far.

[PaulNewman]

JCU, Kenyon and OWU all should be Pool C locks if they don't get their AQ.  If JCU does not get the OAC AQ then that is two Pool Cs to GL already.  I would think there would be at least one more with a tight criteria battle between Otterbein, ONU and Mt Union.  There are now 21 Pool Cs.  Depending on what happens elsewhere maybe the GL gets four Pool Cs.  If JCU does win the AQ, then just three Pool Cs would get two more OAC teams in.

[Domino1195]

Sure wish the GL conferences would have coordinated with my schedule before setting all start times for today's games. And considering all the Ohio HS championships take place at Crew Stadium - c'mon man!

So I choose OWU-Kenyon - best game in the region today anyway but I'll try to peek at the Hanover-RHIT game also. New Columbia boots, down jacket - do your worst Mother Nature . . .

[PaulNewman]

Happy for Kenyon and mildly surprised, especially after trailing 1-0 at the half.  Lords now 17-1-2 with another NCAC double.  After losing two All-Americans (Lowry and Anderson) as well as several other multiple year starters (Koval, McNeer, etc) I did not expect this kind of season.  And  the Lords also have had a fair share of injuries to absorb.

Kenyon started fairly well and imo had the better of the play the first 20 minutes, except for repeated errors by defenders usually with no pressure.  In that sense, OWU looked far more poised and mature, and OWU looked stronger after going ahead somewhat against the run of play on yet another unforced defensive miscue.  In retrospect, OWU needed another goal to add cushion at the half and to more fully demoralize Kenyon.  After the break, imo Kenyon again controlled much of the play.  Overall an impressive win, although I continue to have trouble watching given the occasional really bad Lords errors and adventures in the box.  Still making soft 5-10 yard back and square passes just daring  strikers and midfielders to intercept with a straight line into an open Kenyon box.  The Lords look most vulnerable on their own corners and balls lost in their offensive final third as for some reason they are repeatedly exposed for counters.  Brown played 3-4 less players than usual but Kenyon's depth may have played a role in the outcome.

Not sure why OWU wasn't more consistently dangerous as they do have loads of offensive talent, but the Battling Bishops will be a tough out in the NCAA tournament.

P.S.  Chayne Bruneau, a frosh CB from Glastonbury, CT and Loomis Chaffee, was named NCAC tourney MVP.  Outstanding player who uncharacteristically made several unforced errors in the first half (maybe nerves) but had a great second half.  Somehow, Sam Hosmer-Quint, the other CB, who has been rock-solid all year (and generally again today) was left off the all-tourney selections.   

[jcudad]

The JCU vs. Otterbein comments left me scratching my head.  JCU played mediocre in both games and the first only went to OT because of a goalie error and considering JCU still had an average shot total of 23 or 24 to 7.5 for Otterbein and a lions share of the possession...the games should have been 2 or 3-0.  Otterbein had a nice season and will only get better and in my opinon deserved to be in the dance over Ohio Northern, but JCU playing average was still enough.

[PaulNewman]

The JCU vs. Otterbein comments left me scratching my head.  JCU played mediocre in both games and the first only went to OT because of a goalie error and considering JCU still had an average shot total of 23 or 24 to 7.5 for Otterbein and a lions share of the possession...the games should have been 2 or 3-0.  Otterbein had a nice season and will only get better and in my opinon deserved to be in the dance over Ohio Northern, but JCU playing average was still enough.

Not sure I followed you here or what you were responding to.  Was playing mediocre/average as you put it a choice for JCU?  Or why would they play average, especially in a conference final? 

JCU has a very good draw and a very fair chance to reach the Final Four.  No Calvin or Chicago or Messiah standing in the way, and a solid home field advantage that should continue if JCU gets through the first weekend.

OWU has a tough draw, especially on paper having to play a rejuvenated Hope squad at Hope with Chicago looming.  If OWU can sneak past Hope (probably a toss-up kind of game with Hope at home) I'd like their chances to pull an upset playing Chicago on a neutral field.  And then OWU would have a great chance to reach the Elite 8 versus Calvin or maybe North Park.

Many of us are protective of our own teams, and in that vein, imo Kenyon received no favors beyond home field and will have to play two very strong games just to get out of the weekend with potential heavyweights waiting at the Sweet 16 round.  I see some already are forecasting an early exit for the Lords.  That's totally fair based on the youth of this year's team and also until the Lords break through past the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. 

One.game.at.a.time.