2019 Great Lakes Region

[PaulNewman]

As a devoted fan (and I am) Kenyon can be so infuriating.  2-0 over Spalding today but a horrific performance imho by all involved.  A slightly better team would have made the Lords pay and Spalding almost did as Kenyon played them into multiple fabulous chances that a CWRU, JCU, OWU, Capital (well just about anyone) would have punished.  Playing out of the back way too much with the GK having more touches than the center mids, almost begging the other team's forwards to steal the ball, playing the ball into a recycling mid who has a guy hanging all over him, repeated lazy, soft passes backwards.  The exact kind of plays that burned them versus JCU this year and especially in the first game versus CWRU last year.  And what's crazy is that they don't wake up.  When Spalding almost scored and Kenyon probably should have gotten red on a horrible soft pass that was intercepted with a clear path into goal, two other Kenyon players did the exact same thing in the very next 30 secs!  Kenyon acted like they were up 5-0 and if Spalding had gotten just one in (and like I said they were gifted plenty of chances) then the Lords would have been in real trouble.  Then a GK who maybe has never played a minute comes in and immediately tries to be Messi in the back.  Geez, get a sweat first and kick a few balls away and then try to play short right into the opponent's striker's path.  I'm glad we're playing a ton of players, but do not disrespect your opponent.  This stuff out of the back is just insane.  We've lost two Elite 8 games with horrible errors in the back and both totally unnecessary.  I don't know if it's stubbornness or stupidity, or both.  We have no compactness and there is no way to beat several good teams in a row with these errors.  Kenyon has enough talent to be a pretty good team, and they are allowed some time to figure out who to play and where, but they have to be more solid (like a ton more solid).  Alexander Garuba (AA for Centre) must be licking his chops.

[midwest]

John Carroll beats Denison, 1-0, goal was around 70th  minute.

[PaulNewman]

Albeit only winning 1-0, Kenyon put in a more mature performance versus a Centre squad whose fling with increased national attention appears to have flamed out at least for now after back to back home losses to the Knox Prairie Fire and Kenyon.  The Lords do seem to be accumulating injuries (and to key players), a trend which is oddly juxtaposed with the sort of good problem of having too many guys to play.  Almost everyone on the roster getting to play is great for morale but finding a rhythm isn't easy when trying to work in 25 or more players.  My guess is that the starters and regular subs aren't set until very late in the season, and of course injuries could play a significant role therein.

The NCAC as a whole is struggling.  The OAC has an overwhelming record against the NCAC thus far.  Wooster, at least in terms of results, has yet to make the leap some of us hoped for at 1-5 (although did push Calvin into OT last night).   Wabash is struggling at 3-3 versus relatively average competition.  DePauw has bounced back from an opening day 3-0 loss to Berry with 4 straight wins (but none of the more impressive variety).  Denison has recovered from the debacle at Juniata to play very competitively, earning a draw away at Capital and a respectable 1-0 home loss to Great Lakes leader John Carroll, but the Big Red needs some good wins to be considered a real challenger.  Oberlin, Hiram, Wooster, Wittenberg and Allegheny are fighting over cellar dweller status.  Speaking of Allegheny, the Gators used to have some pretty good teams.  Not sure what has happened with their program.  Kenyon is good but not great, and the season may not be long enough for them to develop enough to be great.  OWU is the wild card, as the Battling Bishops in some ways have looked the best of the NCAC bunch and perhaps only second to John Carroll in Great Lakes, but they sit at 3-2-1 after not cashing in on significant statistical advantages against KZoo, Ohio Northern and CWRU.  OWU will have a chance soon to show their mettle with a date at John Carroll on the near horizon.  I think it is safe to say that OWU has the best combination of talent AND maturity in the NCAC but whether that means a lot more nationally we'll have to see.  As I noted earlier OWU does have the nugget of an almost certain ranked win against Calvin in its pocket.

Speaking of John Carroll, we'll have to see if Great Lakes superiority translates more nationally as well.  The record looks great but the individual games were not overwhelming victories.  #3/#4 in the nation is too high for the Blue Streaks imho.  My sense is that they have 3-4 players who could go toe to toe with a Tufts, but that's 3-4 against 18-19.  And that may not mean a lot either as long as you avoid Tufts' sectional as I don't see more than a few teams capable of competing on even or close to even terms with the Jumbos.  Great scheduling and great preparation for a NCAA run...especially Messiah away which will simulate a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 type match.  I suspect Capital is the only OAC team that poses a serious threat to JCU.

JCU's next four....at CWRU, at Carnegie Mellon, at Messiah and home versus OWU. 

CWRU and CMU aren't going anywhere and both will have opportunities for ranked wins in the UAA.  I really like CWRU and they can be very successful with their counter-punching style and strong GK play, but one wonders if they have more of a ceiling and/or less margin for error than some other top outfits.

And yes, I'm aware of PS-Behrend.

[Domino1195]

Attended the OWU-Case game Sat.  OWU did have a key midfield starter out for the entire game but still controlled much of the field position throughout - except for the final third.  Case actually had the better scoring chances - hitting the post in the first 5 minutes of the game - and then 2-3 good chances in the last 15 before OT. OWU's keeper made a very good save on a dipping shot to keep it clean.

There are several teams that must feel like they're playing in a house of mirrors when playing one another.  Identical styles and skill level, same strengths and weaknesses. Case, Cap, Denison and Mt. Union built to defend and counter. Scoring is a weakness.  Like the baseball analogy - good pitching beats good hitting - these teams will rely on a lot of 1-0 games when they play one another (or 0-0 as we saw with Cap and Denison, OWU-Case this past week).

And if Cap's challenge of replacing over 50% of their goals due to graduation wasn't tough enough they lose their leading returning scorer to a broken jaw (against Case - gone for quite a while). This on top of losing a senior starter in the last preseason scrimmage (torn ACL).  Yet, through 4 games, Cap has conceded at total of 5 shots on goal. Defend and wait . . .

JCU and Kenyon - OWU to a degree - are different because they can attack AND score. Kenyon has one challenge left - they can't look past anyone - but OWU is their last opponent who could beat them.  Marietta this weeks sets up as a potential let-down game for them, and as a redemption game for Marietta (who has under-performed to date this season.  They win head-scratcher of the week for their loss at Anderson.  Gave up three shots on goal - all go in.  Take 24 shots - 14 on goal - 2 goals for).

JCU has an incredible road scheduled this year - the next three games at Case, CMU and Messiah - only to come home to play OWU in their last non conference game. Hard to see them getting through this schedule without a blemish.

PrAC - Grove City finally gets a win in OT vs Fredonia.  They have a chance to make noise against PSU-B tomorrow, CMU on Friday.  But Geneva seems to be ahead of schedule with their rebuild.  Westminster has a history of causing trouble in the post-season tourney (winning at Thomas More couple years ago and at Grove City last year) - the single NCAA bid comes down to one of these three.

Heartland - Hanover gives up two goals in the first ten minutes to Thomas More.  With ONU and OWU this week, Spalding and Capital next week we'll see how much of a chance they really have.  I think it's Rose-Hulman's year, and their two games at ONU and DePauw this week will be their toughest challenges YTD.

And then there's PSU-B  . . .

[Domino1195]

I check Massey daily - to see the effects of a win or loss by a team and how it impacts the ranking of a team previously played.  Today's example is Mt. Union dropping a couple places primarily because of CMU's loss to an 0-5 Allegheny team.  I understand this is how SOS's go up and down, but can someone explain how the UAA - the conference and individual teams - continue to receive the rankings and future SOS they do when the conference is playing as poorly as it is?  I would think by now the impact of actual performance would drop them a notch or two???  18-16-9 YTD with a future SOS ranking at #1. 

And I'm sure a couple UAA teams will be in the Elite 8, but I'm wanting to understand future SOS (and defensive rankings while I'm at it) based on current performance.

Today's GL rankings will cause some discussion - and I don't understand why Kenyon is ranked 6th - I don't agree with it.  5 teams from the OAC, which will probably be the high water mark for this conference this season.

[midwest]

Anyone see tonight's games, live or livestream? Wooster beats Capital 3-1, Otterbein over OWU 1-0, Oberlin beats Baldwin Wallace 2-1, Depauw over Rose Hulman 2-1 in OT, John Carroll beats Case Western 2-1, and Kenyon beats Marietta 2-0. I thought tonight's results would give some indication of who rises to the top but it seems like, on any given night, it might be anyone's game to win.

[Domino1195]

ONU beats Hanover 2-0 and Hanover beat Otterbein 3-1.

While the difference - quality, tactics, etc. - among GL teams with winning records isn't great, we are seeing some separation for those truly at the top. JCU has nothing left to prove except can they avoid let-downs and play the rest of the year with a target on their back. Heavy is the head that wears the crown. They will get the A+ game from every opponent from here on out.  They may drop a game in conference - ONU or Mt. Union would be my picks. But 2-3 losses maximum - if that.

I warned several times about Wooster and the quality they have. Three losses to Case and Calvin -  away in OT - and to Mt. Union 1-0 on a PK. The ball was going to bounce they way sometime over a full season. Their work ethic got them a lead last night, and playing a 5-3-2 afterwards allowed them to sit in and challenge Cap to do anything in the final third. Cap's scoring issues, previously noted, were very much on display last night. Committing more numbers to get the equalizer left them vulnerable to counters - two more goals for Wooster.

Otterbein might seem like a head-scratcher but after the Hanover game their senior goalkeeper, who quit the team to focus on baseball, returned. He played 80 minutes in the Transylvania win and all of last night. He was an important part of their Sweet 16 team two years ago and his return can be significant for Otterbein.

By the end of the season JCU and Kenyon will be 1 and 2 in the GL - not sure who gets 1 but JCU will have an extraordinary SOS.  PSU-B has one very strong game left pre-conference against Mt. Union and a conference away game at Geneva - maybe 2-3 losses - but a SOS of over 300. When the "rankings that matter" come out - those used for NCAA positioning - PSU-B will be lower in those rankings than in the coach's poll.
Looking ahead to THOSE rankings - Mt. Union, ONU, RH may round out the top 6.

[jcudad]

A nice away win (all of about 8 miles) for JCU last night, but still 3 more tough ones upcoming.  I'm obviously biased with a son in the program, but it is good to see so many programs excelling or improving. The D3 soccer landscape in the Great Lakes seems to be on the rise and there will no doubt be some head scratching results coming in over the remainder of the season.   Will be fun to see things unfold.

[PaulNewman]

ONU beats Hanover 2-0 and Hanover beat Otterbein 3-1.

While the difference - quality, tactics, etc. - among GL teams with winning records isn't great, we are seeing some separation for those truly at the top. JCU has nothing left to prove except can they avoid let-downs and play the rest of the year with a target on their back. Heavy is the head that wears the crown. They will get the A+ game from every opponent from here on out.  They may drop a game in conference - ONU or Mt. Union would be my picks. But 2-3 losses maximum - if that.

I warned several times about Wooster and the quality they have. Three losses to Case and Calvin -  away in OT - and to Mt. Union 1-0 on a PK. The ball was going to bounce they way sometime over a full season. Their work ethic got them a lead last night, and playing a 5-3-2 afterwards allowed them to sit in and challenge Cap to do anything in the final third. Cap's scoring issues, previously noted, were very much on display last night. Committing more numbers to get the equalizer left them vulnerable to counters - two more goals for Wooster.

Otterbein might seem like a head-scratcher but after the Hanover game their senior goalkeeper, who quit the team to focus on baseball, returned. He played 80 minutes in the Transylvania win and all of last night. He was an important part of their Sweet 16 team two years ago and his return can be significant for Otterbein.

By the end of the season JCU and Kenyon will be 1 and 2 in the GL - not sure who gets 1 but JCU will have an extraordinary SOS.  PSU-B has one very strong game left pre-conference against Mt. Union and a conference away game at Geneva - maybe 2-3 losses - but a SOS of over 300. When the "rankings that matter" come out - those used for NCAA positioning - PSU-B will be lower in those rankings than in the coach's poll.
Looking ahead to THOSE rankings - Mt. Union, ONU, RH may round out the top 6.

Congrats again to JCU.  A long way to go but on course to match or exceed the magical season of a couple of years ago.  Impressive win over CWRU whom I'm sure was primed for a big performance as CWRU also has high expectations and needed a result right now more than JCU.  Beforehand I would have predicted there was no way JCU would get through the gauntlet that is their pre-conference schedule without a blemish, but completing that task now seems doable.  The biggest variable is that CMU and OWU badly need a big win (and Messiah to a lesser extent), but CWRU needed a big win too so we'll see.  JCU at Messiah shapes up to be one of the blockbuster tilts of the season so far.

In terms of eventual NCAA regional rankings I don't see any way that Kenyon could challenge JCU for #1.  JCU has the head to head, will have more ranked wins (by a substantial margin), and will have a far superior SoS.  Not a close call even if Kenyon ran the table which is unlikely.  I don't see where Kenyon is going to pick up any ranked wins (unless Colorado Coll and/or Wheaton get hot).  I will say that Kenyon's loss to JCU doesn't feel quite as bad, as although outplayed to some degree, the Lords had a 2-1 lead pretty deep into the 2nd half and screwed themselves by repeatedly giving up free kicks in dangerous areas.  But the loss still hurts as much as losing 5-0, as the Lords failed to get a ranked win or even a ranked draw in what may have been one of their only chances to get one.

I would not count out OWU despite the recent scoring drought.  They have time to right the ship, as the entire NCAC regular season awaits, and per usual the Battling Bishops will be a major threat to win the NCAC tournament.

Otterbein is pushing into the battle for second place in the OAC with Mt Union, Capital and ONU.  If fortunes break their way Otterbein also could be sitting on a couple of ranked wins already.

CWRU, while off to a slower than expected start, has the hugely important advantage of multiple opportunities for ranked wins and should also have a sky-high SoS.

[Domino1195]

OWU has been missing a key midfield player the past two games - not an excuse but just an FYI.  I had to check that PK in double OT in the DePauw game last night - definitely legit - and so are RHIT and DePauw.

The NCAC is shaping up for an interesting race for the 3 spots behind Kenyon.  OWU isn't necessarily a lock for the top two spots and they are away at Denison and DePauw.  Denison has all three of the potential playoff teams at home (Wooster, DePauw and OWU).  I've seen Wabash a couple times and I don't think they are in the mix this year. Wooster has three very winnable games next and could be back to .500 when they host DePauw. Wooster was also without senior leader Max Robinson last night - not sure of the reason.

I have not seen DePauw so I don't feel comfortable assessing their play, but Denison and Wooster are fairly even.

[justplaysoccer]

OWU seemed flat against Otterbein.

Offense cannot find the back of the net for the 3rd game in a row.

Midfield is better this year with #28.  #13 is back this year at striker.

Team has talent. It seems over the last few years it has been tough for the talent to play together.

Hanover is today. Lets see if any adjustments will be made.

[Domino1195]

OWU seemed flat against Otterbein.

Offense cannot find the back of the net for the 3rd game in a row.

Midfield is better this year with #28.  #13 is back this year at striker.

Team has talent. It seems over the last few years it has been tough for the talent to play together.

Hanover is today. Lets see if any adjustments will be made.

Where's Branche???

[justplaysoccer]

It appears he has not played in any games.

[ncac_dad]

Kenyon on top of Thomas More 4-1 at the half.

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon spots Thomas More a goal and then scores 7.  None of the usual starters played today and the game means nothing in terms of NCAA credentials with TMC now being a NAIA school.  Brown still played 21 kids which should be good for morale.  TMC has had some decent results this year, but this is not close to an Austin Juniet era TMC squad.